The race for untapped talent: the prospects of diversity
Dirk Van DammeHead of the Centre for Educational Research and Development – OECD/EDU
2
Outline
1. The global race for talent
2. Expanding higher education systems
3. Untapped stocks of talent
4. Opportunities for ethnic minority students
5. Benefits and prospects
6. The pedagogy of success
7. Conclusions
3
THE GLOBAL RACE FOR TALENT
1.
4
Demography
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 40 000
45 000
50 000
55 000
60 000
65 000
70 000
75 000
Observed and projected size of the incoming (20-24) and outgoing (60-54) age cohorts in OECD countries (excluding Mexico and Turkey)
20-24 60-64
5
The global talent pool
7
Need for skilled people
• Demographic transition and a rapidly changing economy dramatically increase the need for skilled jobs and people
• Increasing international competition for talent and high-skilled labour
• Countries will increasingly look into the possibilities of high-skilled migration to solve short-term skill needs
• But there may be more sustainable policy approaches…
8
EXPANDING HIGHER EDUCATION SYSTEMS
2.
9
Expansion
• Higher education systems are– Recruiting more students than even before– Delivering more qualified graduates than…– Receiving more (mainly public) funding
than…– Attracting more international students and
international staff than…• Expansion, massification and
internationalisation will continue to grow
Growth in university-level qualificationsC
an
ad
aU
nit
ed
Sta
tes
Ne
w Z
ea
lan
dE
sto
nia
Fin
lan
dA
us
tra
liaN
orw
ay
Sw
ed
en
Ne
the
rla
nd
sS
wit
zerl
an
dU
nit
ed
Kin
gd
om
De
nm
ark
Ja
pa
nG
erm
an
yIc
ela
nd
Be
lgiu
mO
EC
D a
ve
rag
eL
ux
em
bo
urg
EU
19
av
era
ge
Ire
lan
dF
ran
ce
Sp
ain
Hu
ng
ary
Slo
ve
nia
Gre
ec
eA
us
tria
Po
lan
dK
ore
aS
lov
ak
Re
pu
blic
Cze
ch
Re
pu
blic
Ita
lyM
ex
ico
Ch
ileB
razi
lT
urk
ey
Po
rtu
ga
l0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2000's 1990's 1980's 1970's
%
Approximated by the percentage of the population that has attained tertiary-type A education in the age groups 25-34 years, 35-44 years, 45-54 years and 55-64 years (2007)
Changes in student numbers and expenditure Index of change between 2000 and 2007 (2000=100, 2007 constant prices)
Chi
le
Bra
zil
Hun
gary
Sw
itzer
land
Irel
and
Isra
el
Icel
and
Net
herl
ands
Ital
y
Slo
vak
Rep
ublic
Nor
way
Ger
man
y
Sw
eden
Bel
gium
Aus
tral
ia
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
Fra
nce
Fin
land
Japa
n
Mex
ico
Can
ada
Den
mar
k
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
Pol
and
Est
onia
Aus
tria
Spa
in
Kor
ea
Por
tuga
l
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
Change in expenditure
Change in the number of students (in full-time equivalents)
Change in expenditure per student Index of change
Expenditure per student increased by14% on average between 2000-2007
Source: CERI/OECD, 2008
Massification will continue
12
International studentsPercentage of all foreign tertiary students enrolled by destination
Un
ited
Sta
tes
Un
ited
Kin
gd
om
Ge
rma
ny
Fra
nce
Au
stra
lia
Ca
na
da
Ru
ssia
n F
ed
era
tion
Jap
an
Ita
ly
Sp
ain
So
uth
Afr
ica
Ne
w Z
ea
lan
d
Au
stri
a
Ch
ina
Sw
itze
rla
nd
Be
lgiu
m
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Ko
rea
Sw
ed
en
Oth
er
OE
CD
co
un
trie
s
Oth
er
pa
rtn
er
cou
ntr
ies
0
5
10
15
20
25
30 2000 2008 Market share (%)
3.3 million tertiary students are enrolled outside their country,
compared to 2 millions in 2000.
14
International students
2007, OECD Education database
15
16
…will that be enough…?
17
UNTAPPED STOCKS OF TALENT
3.
18
Waste of talent?
• Higher education is not very effective in taking benefit of the human resources it potentially can tap on– High failure and drop out rates, especially
in the early years– Low access and low success rates of
students from disadvantaged backgrounds• Low SES students• Low educational capital• Ethnic minority students
19
Failure remains a huge problem…
%
Proportion of students who enter a tertiary programme but leave without at least a first tertiary degree (2005)
20
Source: Education at a Glance 2008
21
Higher education participation according to educational attainment father (2004)
Educational attainment father Man WomenLow schooled 14.0 25.6Higher secondary education 26.2 40.7Higher education 61.4 49.5
22
Success rates of students according to educational attainment mother (Antwerp University, 2006)
Diploma mother % Success RateNo diploma/primary school certificate 25.7Higher secondary education diploma 38.8Short non-university higher education degree 43.3Long non-university higher education degree 58.8University degree 58.4
23
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ETHNIC MINORITY STUDENTS
4.
24
Changing populations
Mexico
Turkey
Hungary
Finland
Czech
Republic
Portugal
Denmark
France
Norway
United Kingdom
Netherlands
OECD total
Germany
Belgium
Sweden
United States
Austria
Ireland
Canada
New Zealand
Australia
Switzerla
nd
Luxe
mbourg0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0The foreign-born population in OECD countries, 2000-2006
2000 (left scale) 2000-2006 (left scale)
25
Percentage of 15 year-old school pupils with at least one parent born abroad and percentage of 15 year-old school pupils born abroad in 2009
KO
R
PO
L
JPN
TU
R
CH
L
ME
X
HU
N
SV
K
FIN
CZ
E
ISL
ITA
NO
R
ES
P
SV
N
DN
K
GR
C
PR
T
OE
CD
ES
T
GB
R
NL
D
AU
T
SW
E
IRL
FR
A
DE
U
US
A
BE
L
ISR
CA
N
NZ
L
CH
E
AU
S
LU
X
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
With at least one parent born abroad ( )↗ Born abroad
26
Percentage point changes in the share of 15 year-old school pupils with at least one parent born abroad and of 15 year-old school pupils born abroad, 2000-09
ISR
ME
X
PO
L
CH
L
CZ
E
JPN
FR
A
AU
S
HU
N
GB
R
SW
E
TU
R
NL
D
DN
K
OE
CD
ISL
NZ
L
BE
L
FIN
DE
U
CA
N
NO
R
CH
E
AU
T
ITA
GR
C
US
A
LU
X
PR
T
ES
P
IRL
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
With at least one parent born abroad ( )↗ Born abroad
27
But gaps in educational achievement
Finlan
d
Singap
ore
New Z
ealan
d
Nethe
rland
s
Norway
Switzer
land
Liech
tens
tein
Ger
man
y
Franc
e
United
King
dom
OECD a
vera
ge
Mac
ao-C
hina
Sloven
iaSpa
in
Croat
ia
Luxe
mbo
urg
Dubai
(UAE)
Serbia
Trinida
d an
d Tob
ago
Mon
tene
gro
Argen
tina
Qat
ar
Azerb
aijan
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
Native Students Second-generation students First-generation students
PISA 2009 data (reading scale)
Accounting for students' socio - economic backgroundAccounting for students' socio - economic background and language spoken at home
Performance difference in reading
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20Score point difference
38 ptsRoughly equivalent to one year of schooling(science -proxy)
• “SES” and “speaking a different language at home” largely explain the performance gap between the two groups in many countries. But they are not the only reasons.
• Other factors: availability of educational resources at home, reading at home at a young age, and participating in ECEC, etc.
29
Proportion of 20-24y-olds who are not in education and have not attained upper secondary education, by migrant status (2007)
30
Educational opportunities for migrants
• Rapidly increasing share of school population
• Achievement gaps in school education between native born and migrant students– With strong impact of SES and language
spoken at home– But with very large variation between
countries• Unqualified and out-of-school 20-24y olds
are in most countries disproportionally from migrant backgrounds
• And what about higher education?
31
Proportion of 25-29 year-olds who either have a tertiary education qualification or are currently enrolled in a tertiary education programme, by migrant status
Icela
nd
Austra
lia
Luxe
mbo
urg
Czech
Rep
ublic
Canad
a
Hunga
ry
Portu
gal
Austri
a
United
King
dom
OECD a
vera
ge
Belgium
Ger
man
y
Sweden
Switzer
land
Franc
e
United
Sta
tes
Nethe
rland
s
Norway
Italy
Finlan
d
Gre
eceSpa
in0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Born abroad Born in the country Total
2007
32
Increasing participation disadvantaged
Increase for advantaged areas in the same period was only 4% (from 55% to 59%)
England
33
Difference in 25-29y olds in tertiary education between migrants and born in country and difference in 20-24y olds with secondary education
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Czech R
Finland FranceGermany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Norway
OECD
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
UK
Difference in or with tertiary education
Diff
ere
nce
in s
eco
nd
ary
ed
uca
tion
atta
inm
en
t
Migrants more in tertiary educationMigrants less with secondary education
Migrants more in tertiary educationMigrants more with secondary education
Migrants less in tertiary educationMigrants more with secondary education
Migrants less in tertiary educationMigrants less with secondary education
34
Migrant students in HE
• In most countries educational participation and qualification of migrant students are lagging behind those of native students
• But there are indications of rising participation levels
• Large differences between countries suggest that this has little to do with innate capacities nor that it should be a insolvable problem
• There seems to be a link in country profiles between migrant participation and participation of foreign students in higher education
35
Difference in 25-29y olds in tertiary education between migrants and born in country and percentage of foreign students (2007-2008)
Australia
Austria
BelgiumCanada
Czech R
Finland
France Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Italy
Netherlands
Norway
OECD
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland UK
Difference in or with tertiary education
Pe
rce
nta
ge
fore
ign
stu
de
nts
in te
rtia
ry e
du
catio
n
Migrants less in tertiary educationMore than average foreign students
Migrants less in tertiary educationLess than average foreign students
Migrants more in tertiary educationMore than average foreign students
Migrants more in tertiary educationLess than average foreign students
36
BENEFITS AND PROSPECTS5.
37
Benefits and prospects
• More migrant students accessing and succeeding in higher education might have very powerful economical benefits– Additional skills input in the economy has
a positive impact on growth– Employment opportunities improve– A more ‘open’ science and innovation
system also seems to be a more productive and innovative one
38
The economic cost of educational underachievement
• McKinsey calculated the economic cost of the 1983-1998 achievement gap in PISA results for the US today– Racial gap: black and Latino students to level of
white students 2 to 4% 2008 GDP– Income gap: students from families earning
<25k US$ to level of students from families >25k: 3 to 5%
– System gap: underperforming states to average achievement level: 3 to 5%
– International gap with top-performing nations: 9 to 16%
(1% 2008 US GDP ≈ 165 billion US$)
39
Proportion of employed 25-29y-old non-students with a tertiary education, working as technicians or as professionals by migrant status
Hunga
ry
Czech
Rep
ublic
Nethe
rland
s
United
King
dom
Switzer
land
Austri
a
Luxe
mbo
urg
Norway
OECD a
vera
ge
Canad
a
Icela
nd
Ger
man
y
Franc
e
Austra
lia
Sweden
Finlan
dIta
ly
Belgium
Gre
ece
Portu
gal
Spain
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Born abroad Born in the country Total
2007
40
Difference between 25-29y olds foreign born and born in country for tertiary education and employment (2007)
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Czech R
Finland
France Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Norway
OECD
Portugal
Spain
Difference in or with tertiary education
Diff
ere
nce
25
-29
y o
lds
with
tert
iary
ed
in s
uita
ble
em
plo
yme
nt
Migrants less in tertiary educationMigrants with tertiary education less employed
Migrants less in tertiary educationMigrants with tertiary education more employed
Migrants more in tertiary educationMigrants with tertiary education less employed
Migrants more in tertiary educationMigrants with tertiary education more employed
Link with innovation
42
THE PEDAGOGY OF SUCCESS6.
Old (or not so old) paradigm
• Selection of the gifted– ‘Only small minority has the necessary
abilities’• The impact of education is ceiled by the limited
availability of innate abilities• Distribution of innate abilities follows normal
distribution, so learning outcomes have to be distributed in the same way
– Early tracking and streaming to select the best– Concentration of educational efforts and
resources in elite institutions for the few– ‘Pedagogy of failure’ for the many
29 April 2010 43Hungarian Lifelong Learning Conference
Future paradigm
• All talents to the highest possible level– Excellence is not contradictory to equity
• Some countries are capable of raising achievement at both ends of the performance scale or even to enhance excellence while decreasing inequity
– Effective learning demands pedagogical differentiation and less standardisation
– ‘Pedagogy of success’ for all!– But: talents which are more difficult to
exploit demand more effective and more intensive educational interventions
29 April 2010 Hungarian Lifelong Learning Conference
44
45
CONCLUSIONS7.
46
Conclusions
• Demographic changes, skill demands of the knowledge economy and social change at large will increasingly ask HE to mine hitherto untapped and even undiscovered talent, beyond the ‘easy’ solution of recruiting high-skilled on the international market.
• There are large ‘reservoirs’ of talent in the disadvantaged communities in our counties, more specifically in the migrant community.
47
Conclusions
• Access and – slowly – success of migrant students in HE is improving, but much more needs to be done
• Mining talents in disadvantaged students will require more effective pedagogy and educational structures in institutions
• Beyond the ‘call of moral duty, economic and social benefits are potentially very huge, both for society at large and institutions
