TD-LTE: Global Market Scenario
Kunal Bajaj, Partner & Director India
India – Pioneering TD-LTE Deployment Workshop
19th September 2011
2
Confidential
Growth of Data Demand
Role of LTE and Business Models
Adoption of TD-LTE
Challenges and Ecosystem Development
Contents
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Confidential
Globally, mobile data traffic is likely to grow at a high rate due to
adoption of high bandwidth services such as video
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth (Petabytes per Month, 2011 – 2015)
Source: Analysys Mason, Cisco VNI Mobile 2011
570
835
1,192
1,676
2,334
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Expected Global Mobile Data Traffic by Application Category (2011 – 2015)
29%
12%
53%
1% 5%
22%
6%
66%
0% 5%
Data File sharing Video VoIP M2M
2011 2015
• Consumers are using mobile data for much more than just emails
• Global mobile data traffic is expected to increase 4 times by 2015
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Data consumption will also be propelled by the introduction of new
devices which give better user experience over high speed networks
eBook
Smartphones
Portable
Gaming
Devices Netbooks /
Laptops
Mobile IPTV
Mobile
Connected
TV
Tablets
Source: Analysys Mason, Cisco VNI Mobile 2011
Note: 1. Figures represents expected CAGR for different type of devices
Expected Global Growth in Mobile connections by Device Type (2011 – 2015)1
-2%
21%
30%
42%
59%
Basic MobilePhones
MBBDevices
Smartphones M2MDevices
Tablet
• New form factors consume more data as well as provide a better experience on high D/L – U/L speeds
• Large screen devices are ideal for video services and other high bandwidth applications
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Global operators have not been able to meet the growing data
demand through existing wireless technologies
Source: Analysys Mason, Company Website, News Articles
AT&T Mobile Data Volume Up 8,000% Over Last Four Years (PB/Month)
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
2007 2008 2009 2010
PB / Month
Increase in Capex of AT&T Mobility (USD Billion)
20.1
31.9
2001 - 2005 2006 - 2010
• AT&T has witnessed about 80x increase in data traffic over the last four years after it launched the iPhone,
primarily driven by enhanced browsing capability of iPhones along with increased usage of Apple app store
• With expected 8x–10x mobile data volume growth over next five years, to support such data growth AT&T is
planning to expand its LTE deployments to cover 95% US population by 2015 / 2016
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In addition, the increase in mobile data traffic is not expected to
result in proportionate growth in revenues
Comparison of the Network Economics of Mobile Networks
Source: Analysys Mason
Time
Traffic volume
Network cost
Revenue
Dominated by Data
Network costs outstrip revenue
Dominated by Voice
Operators are prioritizing
services for high-end customers
to maintain QoS / end-users
experience
Operators in developed
markets are not aggressively
offering smartphone type
bundling for large screen
devices such as tablets
Operators across the world are
dropping their flat-rate plans as
they are not sustainable
Discontinuation
of Flat-rate Plans
Service
Prioritization
Limited Bundling
of Large Screen
Devices
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Growth of Data Demand
Role of LTE and Business Models
Adoption of TD-LTE
Challenges and Ecosystem Development
Contents
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LTE is fast emerging as the technology of choice as it is well
positioned to address the issues of capacity and network cost
Source: Analysys Mason, GSA, Morgan Stanley
Global Commitments for Various Wireless Technologies (No. of Networks)
79
34 39
80
122
54
80
128
HSDPA HSUPA HSPA+ LTE
6 Months after 1st Commercial Launch
12 Months after 1st Commercial Launch
Network Cost Per MB for Various Wireless Technologies (US cents per MB)
42.3
21.2
7.6
3.8 3.4 1.7
GPRS EDGE WCDMA HSDPA HSPA+ LTE
Cost per MB is falling significantly with
technology evolution
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However, LTE network deployment will differ across operators
based on their business model
Source: Analysys Mason
Evolution of LTE Roll-Out Under Various Business Models
• Focused deployments to reduce network
congestion and expand coverage over time
in a managed tech migration path
• Typically, integrated incumbents are most
likely to adopt this approach
• Limited and selective deployments for use
as a marketing message in branding next-
generation capability to consumers
• Typically, spectrum-constrained operators
(such as M1 in Singapore) are most likely
to adopt this approach
• An aggressive deployment with business
rationale of offering premium service as well
as potentially reducing network cost
• Typically, mobile-only operators (such as
CSL in Hong Kong) are most likely to adopt
this approach
Ubiquitous
LTE
Hot-Zone
LTE
LTE for
Marketing
1
2
3 Time to deploy
Po
pu
lati
on
co
vera
ge
1
2
3
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Growth of Data Demand
Role of LTE and Business Models
Adoption of TD-LTE
Challenges and Ecosystem Development
Contents
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Confidential
While FDD-LTE is being adopted globally, 75% operators are also
interested in TD-LTE to utilize their allocated TDD spectrum
Note: 1. Based on survey conducted by HeavyReading among 102 mobile operators
Operator Attitude towards FDD and TDD LTE (2010)
Source: Analysys Mason, Heavyreading
25%
29%
16%
12%
9%
6%
4%
• In many countries, such as India, Sweden and
Norway, TD-LTE spectrum (2.3GHz and 2.6GHz)
has been auctioned recently. For some countries
across Europe, Asia and Latin America auctions
of 2.3GHz and 2.6GHz spectrum bands are
planned over the next few years
• While in some countries (such as Taiwan)
2.3GHz / 2.5GHz technology neutral TDD
spectrum has been allocated, and such
operators are also expected to deploy TD-LTE
• It is also expected that some of the WiMAX
operators (such as Clearwire in US, Yota in
Russia, Vividwireless in Australia and Far
EasTone in Taiwan) will consider migrating to
TD-LTE
Lead with TDD; Unlikely to
use FDD
Lead with TDD; Long term
potential to introduce FDD
Lead with TDD; Medium term
potential to introduce FDD
FDD & TDD both deployed
within 3 years of each other
Lead with FDD; Medium term
potential to introduce TDD
Lead with FDD; Unlikely to
use TDD
Lead with FDD; Long term
potential to introduce TDD
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This interest is driven by availability of unpaired & comparatively
cheaper spectrum for offering mobile broadband services
Note: 1. Figure in parenthesis indicate year of spectrum auction
Availability of TD-LTE Spectrum Across the Globe
Source: Analysys Mason, NSN
Auction Price (USD / MHz / Pop) for Various Spectrum Bands1
Availability of 2.3 / 2.6 / 3.5 GHz Spectrum
Key TD-LTE
Spectrum
Bands
2.3 GHz (100MHz)
2.6 GHz (20 – 190MHz)
3.4 – 3.6GHz (400MHz)
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.03
0.06
0.18
0.18
0.02
0.08
0.12
0.04
0.06
0.09
0.60
1.16
0.07
0.08
0.10
0.17
0.31
0.31
0.48
0.53
0.57
0.61
0.65
0.96
2.35
3.48
5.95
6.24
Finland (2009)
Norway (2008)
USA (2009)
Germany (2010)
Norway (2007)
Sweden (2008)
Denmark (2010)
Canada (2005)
South Korea (2005)
India (2010)
USA (2003)
USA (2002)
USA (2005)
USA (2000)
USA (2008)
Norway (2003)
USA (2008)
Germany (2010)
Poland (2000)
India (2010)
Belgium (2011)
Australia (2001)
France (2010)
Greece (2001)
USA (2006)
France (2010)
Denmark (2001)
Italy (2000)
Netherlands (2000)
Germany (2000)
UK (2000)
Band:
2600 2300
700 2100
Key TD-LTE
Bands
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Operator Country Spectrum Band Description
Aero2
Poland
2.5GHz and
900MHz bands
(50MHz)
• Aero2 has already deployed FDD-LTE in the 1800MHz band and is now
likely to be the first operator (globally) to deploy a commercial TD-LTE
network
• Huawei is expected to supply the end-to-end TDD-LTE EPC (Evolved
Packet Core) solution. Commercial services to be launched in 2011
Sweden and
Denmark
2.6GHz
(50 MHz of TDD
spectrum in Sweden
and 25 MHz in
Denmark)
• Hi3G will be launching both FDD and TDD versions of LTE to maximize
data throughput
• ZTE has been selected to build the TDD/FDD LTE dual-mode network in
both countries; commercial services are expected to be launched in 2011
/ 2012
Australia 2.3GHz and
3.4GHz
• Expected to start offering TD-LTE based fixed wireless broadband
services from 2012. NetComm will build the network for NBN using TD-
LTE chips supplied by Sequans Communications
• Plans to cover approximately 4% of the population outside the fibre
footprint using TD-LTE network
So far, only 3 commercial contracts for TD-LTE have been publically
announced, and they are mainly small scale and dual mode
Publically Announced TD-LTE Commercial Contracts (As of August 2011)
Source: Analysys Mason, News Articles
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In addition, there are ~32 trials that have been conducted globally,
with most of these operators likely to deploy TD-LTE in near future
Source: Analysys Mason, GTI
Global TD-LTE Trial Networks (August 2011)
TD-LTE Trial Networks
TD-LTE Publicly Announced Commercial Contracts
TD-LTE Trial Networks
TD-LTE Publicly Announced
Commercial Contracts
• Largest deployments are in Asia by China Mobile, Reliance Industries and Softbank. They are expected to
deploy TD-LTE in next 1 – 2 years
• European operators with TDD spectrum (or in countries where TDD spectrum is likely to be auctioned in near
future) are also interested in TD-LTE networks to augment capacity beyond current networks (3G / FDD-LTE)
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Anticipated scale from large planned deployments by China Mobile
and Reliance are also driving momentum for TD-LTE
Note: 1. xx
Source: Analysys Mason, News Articles
• Large scale TD-LTE trials in 6 cities with
population greater than 100m each in both
2.3GHz and 2.6GHz bands
• Commercial need for TD-LTE as the main data
technology due to the failure of TD-SCDMA
• Main backer behind Global TD-LTE Initiative
(GTI) to accelerate ecosystem and push for
FDD/TDD interworking
• Performed TD-LTE field trial with Ericsson
towards end 2010 in 2.3GHz. Invited major
vendors to demonstrate capabilities and talking
to tower companies to lease 60,000 towers
• Announced commercial launch end 2011,
although it is likely that this could slip to 1H 2012
• Apart for Reliance, other BWA spectrum winners
such as Airtel, Qualcomm, Tikona and Aircel are
also reportedly planning to deploy TD-LTE
India China
• Expected large scale deployment in China and India will lead to increased momentum for making it a global
standard apart from adding sufficient critical volumes for achieving the economies of scale
• This has led to operators across the globe starting to consider TD-LTE as a solution to use already allocated
TDD spectrum and address the growing mobile data demand
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It is expected that India will have approx. 25 mn TD-LTE users by
2016, primarily driven by low penetration of wireline infrastructure
Source: Analysys Mason
India TD-LTE Active Subscriber Projections (Million, FY 2012 – 2016)1
- 1
4
11
25
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Note: 1. Figures are for Financial Year, e.g, 2015 figures represent data as of March 2015
Jun 11 Jun 12 Jan 13 Jun 13 Jan 12 Jan 11 Dec 13
Conducted field
trail
in 2010 end
Commercial launch
expected by
2011/2012
Already committed
to TD-LTE
deployment
India TD-LTE Rollout Timeline and Projections
Launch in Urban
areas and restricted
to hotspots. Initial
devices to be dongle
based targeted
towards enterprise
and SMBs
TD-LTE handsets
will be available
for large scale
adoption. LTE roll
out in rural areas
not before 2014
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In India, multiple technologies will co-exist with each playing an
important role in providing end-to-end service to consumers
Metro / Tier I Cities Tier II / III Cities Rural Areas Rural Areas Tier II / III Cities
Role of Multiple Access Wireless Technologies in India
2G / 2.5G
(Up to 200 Kbps)
3G
(Up to 21.1 Mbps)
Wi-Fi
TD-LTE
(Up to 100 Mbps)
Expected primarily in top cities
across the country
Intermittent presence across
urban areas (emerging as a
technology for data offloading)
Expected to cover entire urban
areas by 2012
More than 90%
population
coverage
Source: Analysys Mason
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Confidential
Growth of Data Demand
Role of LTE and Business Models
Adoption of TD-LTE
Challenges and Ecosystem Development
Contents
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Confidential
Maturity of the TD-LTE ecosystem will reduce the cost of network
deployment as well as user terminal devices
Source: Analysys Mason
TD-LTE Initiatives by Various Technology Companies and OEMs
• All the key equipment OEMs are investing in R&D for development
of TD-LTE infrastructure equipment and solution. Most of these
vendors are developing platforms that support both TDD and FDD
versions of LTE
• These vendors are already conducting trials along with the key
operators that are planning to deploy TD-LTE (such as China
Mobile, reliance Industries, Airtel and Softbank) to demonstrate the
technology capabilities under various scenarios
• About 18 semiconductor companies / OEMs are investing in TD-
LTE. Qualcomm has recently announced trial of a mobile processor
with integrated modem for TD-LTE / FDD-LTE / EVDO / HSPA+
technologies
• Also, several terminal device vendors have started pre-commercial
launch of TD-LTE based dongles as well as other devices such as
handset, tablets and CPE
Chipset and
Terminal Devices
Infrastructure
Equipment
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Dongle based TD-LTE service is likely to be launched initially, but
will evolve with technology maturity and launch of handsets
Source: Analysys Mason
Device Ecosystem Evolution for TD-LTE
LTE Data
Devices / Tablets
2011 2012 2013 / 14
Initial service
launch is expected
to be dongle based
Targeted primarily
towards enterprise,
SMB & individual
users for data
access
Device OEMs to
launch tablets and
data devices
Targeted towards
individuals for on-
the-go data access
Ecosystem will
evolve further to
support voice over
LTE (VoLTE) on
handsets in the
next 2 to 3 years
Data Only Data Only Data & VoIP
LTE VoIP
Smartphones
Initial Data
Card and CPE
Based Access
• It is expected that first TD-LTE services will be
launched commercially by 1H 2012.
• The initial customer base will be enterprise,
SMB and individual segments in urban areas for
dongle / modem based access on
PCs/laptops/netbooks
• With the evolution of TD-LTE terminal device
ecosystem and common FDD and TDD chipset
platforms, device vendors such as Samsung are
expected to launch data handsets and tablets
that would help in targeting mass market
• Most operators will initially fall-back on 2G / 3G
technology for offering voice services to its
customer. Voice over LTE will take a few years
to develop
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Some other challenges will need to be addressed for large scale
adoption of TD-LTE
Source: Analysys Mason
• Transitioning to voice over LTE will be important as voice is a hygiene service and will
continue to generate bulk of mobile revenue (~65% of total revenue in 2015) globally
• Handoffs between different technologies will be the key in providing seamless end-user
experience
• The TD-LTE ecosystem is not completely evolved and has limited equipment availability. This
might lead to limited CPE / device flexibility among end-users
• GTI aims to support and promote the convergence of FDD and TDD variants to reach large
economies of scale and global roaming, however this might take some time
• Operators will have to address the issue of interference within the TDD band that occurs as
MNOs base stations are unsynchronised
• There is also interference between TDD channels assigned to different operators as a result of
the transmit and receive timeslots not being synchronised
Interference
Device
Proliferation
Voice over LTE
& Technology
Handoffs
• As data takes off, bandwidth pressures will be felt in backhaul and transmission
• Operators need to invest and expand backhaul to provide good customer experience
Backhaul
Enhancement
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Analysys Mason Limited
BD-4th Floor, Big Jo’s Tower,
Netaji Subhash Place, Pitampura
New Delhi – 110034, India
Tel: +91 (0)11 47003100
Fax: +91 (0)11 47003101
www.analysysmason.com
Kunal Bajaj
