Two Case Studies: GBR and MPB Simulations

September 12, 2013 1

Today’s Agenda

The continuing crisis

Simulation Overview

Great Bear Rainforest Case

Mountain Pine Beetle Case

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Mean annual precipitation

Simulation

GBR ECOSYSTEM-BASED MANAGEMENT

1/3 of GBR is protected, 2/3 operate under EBM, one key aspect of which is old growth representation. In March 2009, this amount was set at 50%, with some exemptions, even though a consensus science group recommended the amount be 70%.  We have been delegated the task of establishing the appropriate level of old growth forest protection in the region.

CONVERSION TO AREA-BASED TENURE

The Minister of Forests, Land, and Natural Resource Operations  has proposed, as a way to improve forest management and increase the midterm timber supply in regions affected by the mountain pine beetle epidemic, to convert a number of volume-based licences to area-based ones.  The Minister has directed a multistakeholder body to forge a consensus on a new tenure system by the end of the calendar year.

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Simulation - Objectives

develop practical skills -- teamwork, research, and communication -- necessary for constructive participation in policy development

develop a deep understanding of one crucial component of forest policy.

Have a lot of fun learning

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Simulation – OrganizationGBR ECOSYSTEM BASED MANAGEMENT

Greenpeace Sierra Club of BC Coast Forest Products

Association Truck Loggers

Association Western Forest Products United Steelworkers Central and North Coast

Communities Nanwakolas Council Coastal First Nations

CONVERSION TO AREA-BASED TENURE

Wilderness Tourism Association of BC

ForestEthics Cariboo-Chilcotin

Conservation Society Council of Forest Industries Canfor Interior Logging Association United Steelworkers Carrier Sekani Tribal Council First Nations Forestry Council

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Simulation –Process meet in groups required readings consult "real world" versions of their groups select a delegate (and an alternate) to

speak and negotiate for them during the consultation.

evening, mock multistakeholder consultation attendance required for all participants : EBM GBR Monday November 18 Area-based tenure Tuesday, November 19

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Simulation - Assessment

10% for the group brief not to exceed 2000 words. This is a group project, which clearly and concisely presents the group’s initial position on how to revise the rules. It should contain references.  The briefs are due November 14.

10% for each student’s participation in the group. This grade will be based on the recommendations for grades that students provide for each other

10% for the performance of each group in the consultation.

BC is 2 (or more) forest provinces

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Case Study I: the Great Bear Rainforest

Context

The PlaceThe CampaignThe processThe resultEBM

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GBR: the place

Central and North Coast regions of BC

Globally significant ecosystem: largest areas of remaining intact coastal temperate rainforest in the world

Valuable timber resources Remote communities Unresolved aboriginal

land claims

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GBR: The Campaign

1995 - Enviros launch campaign to protect “Great Bear Rainforest” direct action market-based

campaign targeting large purchasers

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GBR: Planning

1996 – Land and Resource Management Plan (LRMP) - Multi-stakeholder planning process

enviros boycott

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GBR: enviro-industry cooperation

Enviros’ market campaign forces industry into (secret) negotiations outside of formal process

1998: Enviros and industry agree to cease-fire: industry agrees to suspend logging in

intact areas engos agree to suspend market

campaign and join LRMP process

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GBR: 2001 framework agreement

April 2001 Framework Agreement (BC Gov, FN,

engos, companies) protected areas (20%)

deferrals (11%)

remainder covered by ecosystem-based management

established independent “Coast Information Team”

2004: Land and Resource Management Plan

recommendations

2004-2005 – Government to Government negotiations

Crown government and First Nations

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GBR: 2006 Announcement

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land base of 6.4 million ha (16 million acres)

GBR: Coast Information Team Definition of EBM

general definition “… an adaptive approach to managing

human activities that seeks to ensure the coexistence of healthy, fully functioning ecosystems and human communities.Coast Information Team, EBM Framework

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Implementation issue: deciding specific EBM Rules

Definition of EBM uncertain Parties commit to full implementation of

EBM by March 2009 Example of outstanding issue – old growth

representation: Coast Information Team, enviros say 70% LRMPs, industry, government – and 2006 policy

says 30% March2009: 50% with exemptions, new

commitment to “full implementation” by 2014

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Insights from GBR we’ll address

One of most important land use decisions

Extraordinary instance of collaborative decisionmaking

Power shift created by enviros’ use of international market pressures

Landmark co-jurisdictional arrangements with First Nations

Challenging issues in policy design Revealing implementation

challengesSeptember 12, 2013 21

Environmental Change:Mountain Pine Beetle Epidemic

September 15, 2009

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MPB epidemic: 2 causes

fire suppression increase volume of vulnerable host organisms

▪ area covered by mature pine increased by a factor of 3 from 1910-2000

climate change – decline in cold weather In mid-winter, temperatures must

consistently be below -35-40 C for several straight days to have any effect

In the early fall or late spring, sustained temperatures of -25 C can kill

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MPB epidemic – current and projected impact

Proportion of lodgepole pine of the interior timber harvesting land base: 50%

51% of the total provincial mature merchantable pine volume killed by 2010

59% of pine will be killed by 2016 61% by 2021

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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Pin

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Year

Annual Mortality

Old Estimate of Observed Annual Red-Attack (published in 2005)

Old Estimate of Projected Annual Red-Attack (published in 2005)

Current Estimate of Observed Annual Red-Attack (2011*)

Current Estimate of Projected Annual Red-Attack (2011*)

*2011 Publication: 1999-2010 Aerial Overview Surveys and BCMPB.v8

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Policy Response

• AAC Uplifts (about 14 million m3 – 28% across interior)

• Support for Beetle Action Coalitions

• Silviculture Investments

• Surveys, Reforestation, fertilization

• Capitalizing on new opportunities (e.g. Bioenergy, carbon trading)

• Research – Silviculture, wildfire, hydrology.

• Inventory Investments

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MPB Timber Supply Impact Summary (2011)

2010 provincial AAC: 78.6 million m3 *

Coast 17.1 million m3

Interior AAC: 61.5 million m3

▪ 50.6 million m3 pre-uplift 2030 provincial AAC: 57.5 million m3

40.4 million m3 interior “fall-down” below pre-uplift: 10.1 million

m3

20% in interior (higher in some areas) 14% provincially

Area-based tenure – recent origins

Explosion at mill in Burns Lake, BC – Babine Forest Products owned by Hampton Affiliates

Justifying rebuilding of mill thought to require greater assurance of access to timber

Memo leaked with a number of controversial proposals

Response: Special Committee on Timber SupplySeptember 12, 2013 30

Special Committee on Timber Supply

Bipartisan committee of Member of Legislative Assembly

Hearings throughout province

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SCTS – government response

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Spring 2013 controversy

Clark government introduces Bill 8 that would amend Forest Act to allow the minister to accept application to convert FLs to TFLs

NDP, environmentalists express opposition

Proposal dropped, with promise to bring it back in when legislature is next in session (LOL)

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Next week – First Nations Tuesday: Jason Forsyth, George Hoberg, and

Laura Bird, “In Search of Certainty: A Decade of Shifting Strategies for Accommodating First Nations in Forest Policy, 2001-11,” pp. 299-312 in Aboriginal Peoples and Forest Lands in Canada, edited by D.B. Tindall, Ronald L. Trosper and Pamela Perreault., UBC Press 2013 – on sale separately in the department

Wednesday: TRC (next slide) Thursday: Supreme Court of Canada, Haida

Nation v. British Columbia (Minister of Forests), Supreme Court of Canada November 2004

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September 18

“F” (for Forestry) section of the Coliseum – come proudly wearing your UBC Forestry t-shirts.

Highlights of the program that include powerful presentations crucial for gaining understanding of the issues include: 9am The Welcome and Opening Ceremonies 11am Be the Change: Young People Healing the Past and Building the

Future 1pm Commissioners Sharing Panel 3pm Expressions of Reconciliation, including UBC President, Professor

Toope

Throughout the day, you may view exhibits and participate in other ways as well.

The full program is available at http://irsi.aboriginal.ubc.ca/files/2013/09/TRCprogram.pdf

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