Download - [SEMI Theater] Fab Spending and Capacity Trends

Christian Gregor DieseldorffSEMI Industry Research & Statistics Group

SEMI Theater at SEMICON West 2010July 14, 2010

Companies Roar Again:Fab Spending andCapacity Trends

Companies Roar Again:Fab Spending andCapacity Trends

2Christian Gregor Dieseldorff, SEMI - Industry Research and Statistics, July 14, 2010

Sources and definition

• All numbers (historic and forecast) are fromthe SEMI “World Fab Watch” and “World Fab Forecast”Check for “Fab Database reports”: www.semi.org/fabs

• All forecasts are estimates. Forecasted numbers shown are subject to change. Final numbers are available through one of SEMI’s Fab Database Reports.

• All data refer to Front End Facilities• All capacity numbers are installed capacity in 200mm equivalent wafers

per month (wpm) unless otherwise specified. • All spending numbers are in US$ unless otherwise specified.


Outline

Overview of World Fab Database Reports Construction Projects Equipping Fabs Capacities LEDs Summary


AcknowledgementGood Times in the Middle of

‘Somewhat More Than Normal Uncertainty’

George BurnsPresident

Strategic Marketing Associates

Quarterly Fab Report, July 2010

“Verify, verify, verify”

I


Overview of World Fab Database Reports Semiconductor Front End Facilities (no Back End, Assembly & Test) Volume production, Pilot, R&D, Consortia Includes: such as EPI Wafer fabs, MEMS fabs, LEDs, Discretes

$ Excel 3 Years of data Forecast (1 ½ years)

Main features: Construction Equipping CapacitiesWafer Sizes Tech Nodes Products

By Fab on quarterly basis

Closed/For Sale


Overview of World Fab Database ReportsAvailable Fab Database Reports

World Fab Forecast (over 1000 records)World Fab Watch (over 1000 records) FabFutures (only fabs with investments) NEW: Opto/LED Fab Watch

Transition Report(Fabs closed, will be closed, for sale etc)

Custom reports such as- Regional Report (NA, China, Japan)- Historic Reports- Product Type- 300mm report- Construction Monitor- Fabs Equipping Monitor

World Fab Forecast May 2010:

Total changes: 299 on 235 fabs New records: 25 Total number of records: 1117 Operational: 994 (Volume: 804) Future Facilities: 69*

Overview and Activity

* Future Facilities with various probabilities


Fab Construction Projects

Fab Construction Projects


Fab Construction Projects:Spending by Region

Spending on Fab construction projects in 2009 was below $1.6 Billion (lowest since at least 1995)

Spending on Construction Projects (Front End)

$-

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

SEMI World Fab Forecast reports (June 2010)

In US$ Million

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

Taiwan

SE Asia

S. Korea

Japan

Europe & ME

China

Americas

Change %


Fab Construction Projects:New Facilities Starting Construction

2010: Europe/Mideast: 1

2011:S.Korea: 1

2010: China: 8

2010: Japan: 3

2010: Korea: 2

2010: Taiwan: 4

Probability >60%. Showing: Volume + (R&D/Pilots)

2010: Americas: 3

2010: 21 facilities: Only 9 are Non-Discrete Volume Fabs

IV


Equipping Fabs

Equipping Fabs

Litho3000


Equipping Fabs: Effect of Economy on Forecast

Worldwide Spending on Equipping Fabs All spending related to equipping Front End Facilities (incl Discretes)

$-

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

1Q07

2Q07

3Q07

4Q07

1Q08

2Q08

3Q08

4Q08

1Q09

2Q09

3Q09

4Q09

1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast reports (June 2010)

US$Billion

Begin/m id 2008 Feb 13, 2009

end June 2010US$B US$B

Report date 2009 2010 2009 2010 June 2009 -48% 60%

Aug 2009 -49% 63% Nov 2009 -47% 65% Feb 2010 -45% 88% 14 27

mid May 2010 -45% 117% 14 31end June 2010 -45% 120% 14 32

SEMI World Fab Forecast PredictionsSpending on equipping fabs


Equipping Fabs: Spending by Region

Spending on Front End facilities equipping declined by 46% to about $14B in 2009 - the lowest level since 1994.

Money spent on equipping Front End Facilitiesby Year and by Region

$-

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011


US $ Billion

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

Change (YoY)

Taiwan

SE Asia

S. Korea

Japan

Europe &MideastChina

Americas

Change %


Equipping Fabs: Spending vs. Count of Fabs Equipping (including Discretes)

Money spent Equipping Fabs and Count of Fabs equipping

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

US$ Billion

Source: SEMI World Fab Forecas t reports (June 2010)

0

50

100

150

200

250Count of fabs

Spending for EquippingAll300mm200mm


Equipping Fabs: Top SpendersCompanies with about equal or more than $900M equipment spending

Share of total WW

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20119 10 6 3 9 11

Samsung Samsung Samsung Samsung Samsung SamsungIntel Intel Intel Intel Intel Intel

Hynix Hynix Hynix Hynix HynixTSMC TSMC TSMC TSMC TSMC

Powerchip Powerchip Globalfoundries Globalfoundries Globalfoundries Globalfoundries

Sony Toshiba Toshiba Toshiba Toshiba Toshiba

UMC UMC Elpida Elpida Elpida

Micron Micron Micron Micron Micron SMIC NanYa NanYa NanYa

65% 66% 60% 49% 72% 73%


Equipping Fabs: New Facilities Starting Operation (Pilot)

2011: 26Americas: 3 China: 9Europe/Mideast: 4Japan: 2 Korea: 2SE Asia: 2Taiwan: 4

2010: Japan: 3

2010: China: 7

2010: Taiwan: 4

2010: Americas: 32010: Europe/Mideast: 6

2010: 23 (12 are for LEDs, 3-4 for 8-inch, 4-5 for 12-inch)

V


Capacity

Capacity

Artist’s impression


Capacity:Change of Plan

Change of Plan: Installed Capacity Forecast(Volume fabs, without Discretes)

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

1Q07

2Q07

3Q07

4Q07

1Q08

2Q08

3Q08

4Q08

1Q09

2Q09

3Q09

4Q09

1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

In millions wafers per month

Source: World Fab Forecast reports (June 2010)

Aug 2008


10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

1Q07

2Q07

3Q07

4Q07

1Q08

2Q08

3Q08

4Q08

1Q09

2Q09

3Q09

4Q09

1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11



Aug 2008 Sept 2009


10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

1Q07

2Q07

3Q07

4Q07

1Q08

2Q08

3Q08

4Q08

1Q09

2Q09

3Q09

4Q09

1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11



Aug 2008 Sept 2009 June 2010


Worldwide Installed Capacity (without Discretes)

11.8%

7.0% 5.8%

12.7%

1.0%3.4%

9.9%

14.3%14.9%

22.6%20.9%

7.6%

-3.7%

8.3% 7.4%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011


In Millions200mm Equivalent

w afers/month

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Change in %

Taiwan

SE As ia

S. Korea

Japan

Europe &Mideas tChina

Am ericas

Change

Capacity: Capacity by Region (without Discretes)

12%2008 to 2011

4%2008 to 2010

Change of CapacityCompare 2010 and

2011 with 2008

10%14%Europe/ME

23%37%Japan

53%22%Asia Pacific

14%27%Americas

20111997Share of Capacity by Region

We have never before seen installed capacity with negative change rate (YoY)!

Worldwide Installed Capacity (without Discretes)

11.8%

7.0% 5.8%

12.7%

1.0%3.4%

9.9%

14.3%14.9%

22.6%20.9%

7.6%

-3.7%

8.3% 7.4%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011


In Millions200mm Equivalent

w afers/month

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Change in %

Taiwan

SE As ia

S. Korea

Japan

Europe &MideastChina

Am ericas

Change


Count of Facilities Closed and Starting ProductionFront End Facilities (R&D, Pilot, Volume) with Discretes

-70-60-50-40-30-20-10

010203040506070

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011


Number Facilities started vol prod

Number Facilities closed

Capacity: Count of Fabs Starting vs. Closed

Closed in 2009 and 2010: 53Americas: 26China: 2Europe/ME: 10Japan: 13Korea: 2Taiwan: 0

About 22 facilities will close in 2010:8-inch: 6 (1 MPU, 3 Logic)6-inch: 9< 6-inch: 7No Memory facility close in 2010

About 31 facilities closed in 200912-inch: 2 (3 with R&D) (memory)8-inch: 11 (7 for memory)6-inch: 7 (1 for memory)< 6-inch: 9

VI


LEDs


LEDsChanging LED Landscape:

3 3 3

6 15 36

1 2 4

7 9 12China

Japan

SKorea 4 8 9

SEAsia 0 0 3

Taiwan 13 22 38

42,219

34

2001

Capacity (in 200mm EQs w/m)

Count Volume fabs

Year (begin operation)

107,288

59

2006

>375,000

105

2011 (est)

Americas Europe/Mideast


Growth rate of capacity for LED dedicated fabs is double digits every year.>40>332218343013102722Change % Capacity

2011201020092008200720062005200420032002Year (begin operation)

MajorMajor PlayersPlayers

Capacity >10k wafers per month (200mm EQs)Capacity >10k wafers per month (200mm EQs)(sorted by capacity in descending order)(sorted by capacity in descending order)

Rohm

Sanken

Epistar

Nichia

In 2007: 4

Osram

Samsung LED

Rohm

LG Innotek

Sanken

Cree

Epistar

Nichia

In 2009: 8

Rohm

Formosa Epitaxy

Sanken

Genesis

Osram

Epistar

LG Innotek

Lextar

Cree

Toyoda Gosei

Samsung :LED

Nichia

In 2011: 12

LEDs:Changing Landscape: LED dedicated Fabs VII


Summary Sudden rush of record investments by some companies, with some

companies beginning to invest more in capacity.

Installed Capacity has slow recovery with single digit growth in 2010 and 2011.

2010 Fab investments are still way below the 2006 level (just surpassing 2004).It will take until about 2011 to reach same levels as we had in 2007.

Fabs equipping expected to have spending growth rate of 120% in 2010and 10-20% in 2011. Spending for equipping also still below 2006 level.

New LED fabs pop up like mushrooms: strongest presence in Asia. LED capacity growth for 2010 >35% and 2011 >40%

Good Times in the Middle of‘Somewhat More Than Normal Uncertainty’

George Burns, July 2010

Download - [SEMI Theater] Fab Spending and Capacity Trends

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