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The potential for vehicle safety standards to prevent deaths and injuries in Latin AmericaAn assessment of the societal and economic impact of inaction

Authors: C. Wallbank, K. McRae-McKee, L. Durrell & D. Hynd

Presented by: Richard Cuerden27 October 2016

© Copyright 2016 TRL Ltd

About TRL Background Method Results Conclusions Recommendations Acknowledgments

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The potential for vehicle safety standards to prevent deaths and injuries in Latin America

An assessment of the societal and economic impact of inaction

© Copyright 2016 TRL Ltd The future of transport.

The Future Of TransportIn the next 3-5 years, the focus will be on delivering transport & mobility solutions that are:

• Safe• Reliable• Efficient• Accessible• Environmentally sound

For all those who use or operate the transport and mobility network.

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Our MissionTo challenge and influence our chosen markets, driving sustained reductions in:

• Fatalities & serious injuries• Cost inefficiencies• Harmful emissions• Barriers to inclusive

mobility• Unforeseen delays

…enabling world-class transport and mobility solutions that underpin the needs of tomorrow’s economy and society.

Creating the future of transport and mobility, using evidence-based solutions and innovative thinking…

About TRL


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Background

According to the World Health Organisation (WHO): over 1.25 million people died due to road collisions in 2013 up to 50 million more people were seriously injured

> 90% road casualties occur in low- and middle-income countries Economic growth and increasing motorisation is predicted to

cause more road casualties, particularly in emerging economies The Decade of Action for Road Safety (2011-2020) was adopted

by the United Nations (UN) General Assembly in 2010 in response to this predicted rise

The UN Member States have adopted a target to halve road traffic deaths and injuries by 2020 (relative to 2010) part of the Global Goals for Sustainable Development (UN 2016)


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The Global Plan for the Decade of Action is organised around the 5 pillars of the ‘Safe System’ approach

Safer vehicles: Only 40 countries worldwide apply all of the most important (minimum) vehicle safety standards: Approved seat belts and anchorages for all seating positions (UN

Regulations 14 and 16) Occupant protection in frontal collision (UN Regulation 94) Occupant protection in side or lateral collisions (UN Regulation 95) Pedestrian protection (GTR 9; UN Regulation 127) Electronic Stability Control (ESC) (GTR 8; UN Regulation 13H)

Background

Road Safety Management

Safer Roads and Mobility

Safer Vehicles

Safer Road Users

Post-Crash Response


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Quantify how many car user fatalities and serious injuries could be prevented in Argentina, Chile and Mexico if: Minimum secondary safety measures (UN

Regulations 14, 16, 94 and 95) were adopted The New Car Assessment Programme for Latin

America and the Caribbean (Latin NCAP) stimulates further vehicle improvements

Incorporate the results from the Brazil study (Cuerden et al. 2015; TRL PPR766)

Quantify the economic burden for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico associated with not adopting minimum car secondary safety standards

Aims of the study


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Predict the benefits of car secondary in the emerging markets:Estimate the number of fatalities that would be saved in the emerging markets if the secondary safety benefits seen in GB are experienced (based on the likely fleet growth and baseline year, from 2016 to 2030)

4Monetise the preventable casualties: The human life savings are quantified economically using the Value of Statistical Life method associated with GDP (Bhalla et al. 2013)

2Establish a baseline year in the emerging markets: Identify the equivalent ‘car secondary safety’ age (year) in the current vehicle fleet in the emerging markets compared to the EU (GB)

1 Quantify the effectiveness of car secondary safety in GB: Assess the reduction in car user fatalities due to car secondary safety

Method


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Results – 1. Car secondary safety in GB

Non built up roadsBuilt up roads

Modelled fatality proportion by registration year for car drivers (males 25-59, small family cars, 2013)

Data from GB is used to quantify how many car users would have been killed if secondary safety had not improved (EU Regulation + Euro NCAP)


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(Vehicle Manufacturers)

Vehicle design and casualty prevention

Results – 2. Establish a baseline year


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EURO NCAP (1997 test)Latin NCAP (2010 test)

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Examples of car residual crush damage comparisons and classifications

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Baseline year for 2015Actual (estimated) casualty numbers

Estimated casualty numbers if secondary safety had not improved

Estimated reduction in casualties due to secondary safety improvements

2002 (Argentina) 11,961 12,610 650

2003 (Chile) 11,078 11,790 712

2000 (Mexico) 13,469 14,419 950

1995 (Alternative baseline) 16,275 18,951 2,676

Based on an engineering visual assessment of the performance of cars in Latin and Euro NCAP, frontal impacts only, we considered: Structural integrity of the passenger compartment

at the A-pillar and sill Degree of deformation of the A-pillar and/or sill Stability of the steering column Provision of front airbags Stability of airbag contact (for the driver)

Conservative assumptions for ‘Baseline years’: Many cars not subject to side impact test Different safety features and technologies e.g. no

side curtain airbags


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Baseline year for 2015Actual (estimated) casualty numbers

Estimated casualty numbers if secondary safety had not improved

Estimated reduction in casualties due to secondary safety improvements

Proportional casualty saving over 15 years assuming vehicle secondary safety remained at baseline year

2002 (Argentina) 11,961 12,610 650 5.2%

2003 (Chile) 11,078 11,790 712 6.0%

2000 (Mexico) 13,469 14,419 950 6.6%

1995 (Alternative baseline) 16,275 18,951 2,676 14.1%

Estimated car driver fatality numbers over a 15 year period in GB if secondary safety had remained at level of the baseline year


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Results – 3. Predicting the benefits

Car occupant fatality rate (per million registered cars) for Chile, 2005-2014)


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The possible baseline scenarios for car registration growth in Chile from 2015 to 2030 have been devised as:A. The trend in car registrations continues to grow linearly at the

current rate: an average annual rate of 5.2% relative to 2014B. The trend in car registrations continues to grow linearly at an

average annual rate of 0.9% relative to 2014C. The trend in car registrations continues to grow linearly at an

average annual rate of 6.0% relative to 2014D. The trend in car registrations continues to grow linearly as in

scenario (A), but also encompasses a gradual move from motorcycles to cars. This is equivalent to an annual average increase of 5.7%



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Predicted growth in registered cars (Chile)

Motorisation rate

(B) Annual rate of 0.9%


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Predicted fatalities (Chile) based on modelled fleet growth and no car secondary safety improvements

(B) Annual rate of 0.9%

(C) Annual rate of 6.0%


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Scenario

Number of fatalities predicted

without vehicle safety

developments

Similar timescale Quicker timescale

Saving in fatalities

Proportional saving

Saving in fatalities

Proportional saving

A 8,312 569 6.8% 711 8.6%B 6,313 394 6.2% 492 7.8%C 8,680 601 6.9% 752 8.7%D 8,542 589 6.9% 737 8.6%

Potential fatality savings in Chile between 2016 and 2030 due to secondary safety developments from the baseline of 2003

If minimum vehicle standards were applied now (2016), by 2030 we predict: Between 390 and 750 fatalities in Chile would be prevented (2003 baseline) Between 690 and 1,320 fatalities in Chile would be prevented (1995 baseline)


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If minimum vehicle standards were applied now (2016), by 2030 we predict that the following fatalities could be saved: Between 570 and 1,400 fatalities in Argentina Between 390 and 750 fatalities in Chile Between 900 and 3,500 fatalities in Mexico Between 12,000 and 34,000 fatalities in Brazil (Cuerden et al. 2015)

Between 14,000 and 40,000 car occupant fatalities could be prevented across the Latin American region

The number of killed or seriously injured car user casualties prevented by improvements to secondary safety could be in the region of 160,000 to 440,000



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Results – 4. Monetise the preventable casualties

GDP per capita

(2014)(current USD)

(World Bank Group, 2016a)

Economic loss of one death due to

traffic collision(current USD,

thousands)

Economic loss of one serious injury

due to traffic collision

(current USD, thousands)

Argentina 12,509.5 876 – 1,721 213Chile 14,528.3 1,017 – 1,999 247Mexico 10,325.6 723 – 1,421 176Brazil 11,726.8 821 – 1,614 199UK 46,297.0 3,241 – 6,370 787

Economic loss of death and serious injury using VSL method


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Results – 4. Monetise the preventable casualties

Potential economic savings between 2016 and 2030 due to secondary safety improvements

Car occupant fatalities

prevented

Economic saving as a result of the fatalities prevented

(current USD, millions)Argentina 570 - 1,400 500 - 2,500Chile 390 - 750 400 - 1,500Mexico 900 - 3,500 700 - 5,000Brazil 12,500 - 34,200 10,300 - 55,200Total 14,000 - 40,000 11,900 - 64,200

When serious injury savings are also considered, the benefit could be an additional 79 billion USD – total of 143 billion USD


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This study concludes that if the car secondary safety benefits seen in Great Britain over the past decade were efficiently applied to the Latin American region between 2016 and 2030: 40,000 car user fatalities could be prevented 440,000 killed or seriously injured car user casualties prevented The total monetary benefit could be up to 143 billion USDWe estimate that: Today’s Latin American cars are performing approximately 15 years

behind cars in Great Britain However, due to the absence of side impact tests and differences in

the fitment of safety features, it is possible that cars in these emerging markets are actually up to 20 years behind those in Great Britain in terms of performance in a crash

The benefits expressed represent conservative estimates

Conclusions


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TRL report PPR797 quote:“The lessons that have been learnt from the development and evaluation of vehicle safety standards and assessment programmes in industrialised regions should be quickly and cost effectively applied in emerging markets, so that vehicle safety is a right for all, regardless of wealth”

Conclusions


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Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico have successfully started the legislative process, but are at different stages and to achieve the casualty reductions predicted, they must all: Mandate UN Regulations 94 & 95 Continue to develop Latin NCAP to ensure cars

are designed to exceed the minimum regulatory thresholds

Other candidates for urgent regulatory action include: Pedestrian protection (GTR 9; UN Regulation 127) Electronic Stability Control (ESC) (GTR 8; UN

Regulation 13H)

Recommendations


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This study has considered vehicle safety, which is one of the five UN pillars of action

It is important to emphasise that a “Safe System” approach requires action with respect to safer roads, vehicles and road users

For example, car users must wear seat belts for the vehicle safety engineering improvements to be effective

Finally, there is a global requirement for better and more harmonised data on road traffic fatalities and injuries

Road casualty data is essential to evaluate progress, identify priorities and to develop tailored prevention measures

More details: TRL Report PPR797

Recommendations


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This research was funded by Global NCAP and the authors are indebted to David Ward and Jessica Truong from Global NCAP for their support and guidance. The authors are grateful to Alejandro Furas and Carolina Pereira from Latin NCAP, Stephan Brodziak at El poder del Consumidor and Alberto Escobar Poblete at Automóvil Club de Chile for contributing their knowledge and data to this research. Finally, the authors would like to thank Louise Lloyd and Richard Cuerden from TRL for their assistance and technical review of the work.

Acknowledgements


Thank youAny questions?

Richard CuerdenChief Scientist & Research [email protected]

Download - Richard Cuerden, Chief Scientist and Research Director, Transport Research Laboratory (TRL)

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