Download - Presentation to GIACC 2 ICAO Secretariat briefing on ... · ICAO Secretariat briefing on available data in relation with the GIACC process Montreal 14th July 2008 Presentation to

1

ICAO Secretariat briefing on available data in relation with the GIACC process

Montreal14th July 2008

Presentation to GIACC 2

Narjess TeyssierChief Economic analyses

and Databases Section

Air Transport Bureau 2

1

3 Fuel consumption calculation

2 ICAO data availability status

Background

4 Relevancy and representativeness

ContentsContents

5 Dashboard sample

6 Conclusion

3

BackgroundBackgroundB

ackg

roun

d �ICAO conducts annual economic studies on airline operating economics

�Fuel consumption regional estimations are part of them

�Data used: OAG (only scheduled traffic)

�In-house calculation formula developed in the nineties based on Block-hours, great circle distance and aircraft type fuel burn characteristics

��ICAO conducts annual economic studies on ICAO conducts annual economic studies on airline operating economicsairline operating economics

��Fuel consumption regional estimations are part of Fuel consumption regional estimations are part of themthem

��Data used: OAG (only scheduled traffic)Data used: OAG (only scheduled traffic)

��InIn--house calculation formula developed in the house calculation formula developed in the nineties based on Blocknineties based on Block--hours, great circle hours, great circle distance and aircraft type fuel burn characteristicsdistance and aircraft type fuel burn characteristics

4

OAG database+

Fuel consumptionformula

OAG databaseOAG database++

Fuel consumptionFuel consumptionformulaformula

Different calculation axis for fuel consumption estimation

By Equipment typeBy Equipment type

Aircraft modelJet or Non/Jet

Passenger Or cargo

By Origin/Destination

By Service categoryInternational

By Service categoryDomestic or

Dom leg of Int

Route groupOr country-pairs

Country or city of departure

Country of airline registration

Dat

a

5

ICAO formula characteristics

The formula (liters of fuel per hour)F= A+B*(L+D)^C

�L is the distance flown (Great circle distance)

�A, B, C & D are parameters specific to each aircraft type according to distances ranges flown (e.g. 0-200 km, 200-900 km & >900 km)

�Block-Hours (BH) are extracted from the OAG database provided by each airline* for every segment flown

Fuel consumption = F*BH

*Reflects the real airline route

The formula (liters of fuel per hour)The formula (liters of fuel per hour)F= A+B*(L+D)^CF= A+B*(L+D)^C

�L is the distance flown (Great circle distance)

�A, B, C & D are parameters specific to each aircraft type according to distances ranges flown (e.g. 0-200 km, 200-900 km & >900 km)

�Block-Hours (BH) are extracted from the OAG database provided by each airline* for every segment flown

Fuel consumption = F*BH

*Reflects the real airline route

Form

ula


Flight hours breakdown

Scheduled

traffic

General

Aviation26% 64%

Non-scheduled traffic

Biz Jet

Aviation

4%

6%

ICAO model: representativenessICAO model: representativeness

Source: ICAO ISDB, FAA, Rolls Royce

Rel

evan

cy

Fuel consumption breakdown (ICAO estimation)

6%

91%

Biz Jet

AviationNon-scheduled traffic

General

Aviation

Scheduled

traffic

1%

2%


Consumption for scheduled traffic only

Total fuel burn (Tg)FAA model (AEDT/SAGE) 193.546

EUROCONTROL model (AEM) 192.766

ICAO model 187.9*

Fuel consumption modelsFuel consumption models

2005

*Weight is calculated based on the density providedby ICAO for jet fuel at 0.82 (Max range in ANNEX 16-Volume II)

FAA & EUROCONTROL models results are based on CAEP/6 FESGinputs where 2005 basis year is taken from OAG

Rel

evan

cy


Fuel per ASK2000 2003 2005

F41 ICAO F41 ICAO F41 ICAO

American Airlines 0.043 0.044 0.041 0.041 0.038 0.039

Continental 0.042 0.04 0.038 0.037 0.037 0.036

Delta 0.042 0.043 0.041 0.042 0.038 0.04

Northwest 0.05 0.052 0.05 0.052 0.048 0.049United Airlines 0.041 0.041 0.035 0.04 0.043 0.042

Total 5 0.044 0.044 0.041 0.043 0.041 0.041

Comparison with the US dataComparison with the US data

I nt e

r nat

iona

l seg

men

t

Average % difference cost study vs F41 < 5%

Rel

evan

cy


2025303540455055606570

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Fuel

bur

n

Fuel consumed (USG) Lts per 100 RTK Lts per 100 ATK

AAGR 1991-2005-2.3%

AAGR 1991-2005-2.2% AAGR 1991-2005

+3.2%

Evolution of fuel consumption

Fuel consumption and capacity evolutionD

ashb

oard

Source: ICAO based on OAG timetable


20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Fuel

bur

n

AAGR 1995-2005-1.5% p.a.

Fuel efficiemcy evolution and forecasts(International services)

Fuel consumption efficiency

Efficiencyimprovement

- 30 % between2005 and

2020

Source: ICAO estimation based on FESG forecasts

Das

hboa

rd

Fuel per ASKs


*By region of registration

Regional* fuel consumption as % of the global

1995 2005


1995 2005

1995 2005

1995 2005

1995 2005

1995 2005

24% 29.3%

2.2% 2.5%

3.2% 4.2%

24.7% 26%

5.2% 4.5%

41% 33.6%

Das

hboa

rd


Fuel consumption by top twenty countries of departureFuel consumption by top twenty countries of departure

11 804

11 678

5 121

8 611

6 715

18 282

74 584

5 354

Country of departure

4 953

4 635

3.

4.

8.

5.

6.

2.

1.

7.

9.

10.

United Kingdom

Japan

Canada

Germany

France

China

United States

Australia

Spain

Russia

3 983

3 974

3 556

3 966

3 889

4 037

4 038

3 642

Country of departure

3 054

2 374

13.

14.

18.

15.

16.

12.

11.

17.

19.

20.

Netherland

Italy

India

Thailand

Singapore

Korea

United Arab Emirates

Brazil

Mexico

Malaysia

Fuel* Fuel*

Source: ICAO based on OAG timetable *Fuel consumption expressed in millions liters

Das

hboa

rd


Fuel consumption by top ten countries of airlines’ registrationFuel consumption by top ten countries of airlines’ registration


11 764

10 407

5 094

9 995

5 625

20 684

72 102

5 196

6 214

3.

4.

10.

5.

8.

2.

1.

9.

7.

United Kingdom

Japan

Russia

Germany

Singapore

China

United States

Netherland

Korea

7 3266. France

Fuel*Country of registration

*Fuel consumption expressed in millions liters

Das

hboa

rd

1 611

1 111

457

994

605

2 956

7 750

481

725

3.

4.

10

5.

8.

2.

1.

9.

7.

United Arab Emirates

Korea

Luxemburg

Japan

France

China

United States

India

Netherland

8126. Germany

Fuel*Cargo Services

Source: ICAO based on OAG timetable **Including Domestic legs of International Services

8 346

7 088

3 249

6 774

3 531

10 611

20 220

3 255

3 693

3.

4.

10

5.

8.

2.

1.

9.

7.

China

Germany

Netherland

Japan

Singapore

United Kingdom

United States

Thailand

Spain

5 4126. France

Fuel*International**

3 910

3 006

1 209

1 930

1 257

6 979

46 613

1 232

1 672

3.

4.

10

5.

8.

2.

1.

9.

7.

Japan

Russia

Spain

Australia

Indonesia

China

United States

Mexico

Brazil

1 9186. Canada

Fuel*Domestic

Fuel consumption for the top ten countries by category of service (by country of departure)Fuel consumption for the top ten countries by category of service (by country of departure)

PASSENGER SERVICES



Fuel consumption by top ten airlinesFuel consumption by top ten airlines


8 465

7 172

5 263

6 731

5 412

9 086

11 490

5 386

6 167

3.

4.

10.

5.

8.

2.

1.

9.

7.

Delta Airlines

British Airways

Continental

Northwest Airline

Southwest

United Airlines

American Airlines

Singapore Airline

Air France

6 5656. Lufthansa

Fuel*AIRLINE


Das

hboa

rd

Air Transport B

ureau16

-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

10%

-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

10%

Average annual

growth rate (%

p.a.)1998 -2005Europe-ME &AP

19%

16%

15%

5%3%

3%2%

1%0.5%

2005Fuel %

Ranking by fuel consum

ption on each route groupR

anking by fuel consumption on each

route group

North Atlantic

Local Europe

Source: IC

AO

based on OA

G tim

etable

Local AP10%

14%

4%3%

2%

1%

1%0.5%

North & Mid Pacific

Europe/ME &Africa

Berm+Can+Mex & USA

Mid Atlantic

Europe and ME

North Am+Cen Am+Car and South AM

South Atlantic

North Am and Central America

South Pacific

Local Africa

Local Middle East

Local South Americva

Central Americva and Caribbean

Dashboard


0

20,000,000,000

40,000,000,000

60,000,000,000

80,000,000,000

100,000,000,000

120,000,000,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Fuel

con

sum

ptio

n in

Lit

ers

Fuel consumption evolution by major aircraft type on International Pax ServicesFuel consumption evolution by major aircraft type on International Pax Services

10 aircraft types services represent more than 80% of global fuel consumption through 1995 to 2005 for Passenger International services

B747

B767 B737

B777DC10/MD11

A310A340

A330

A320 Fam


Das

hboa

rd

18

•Shortcomings• Incomplete coverage: missing non-scheduled and

Business Jet traffic• Data are not actual traffic data (timetable)• Data (Fuel cost) provided by States are not reliable

enough due to a lack of reporting

•Next steps• State Letter sent in May for an improved data collection

on fuel consumption for the last 5 years integrating notably the non-scheduled traffic

• Continue to provide estimations of CO2 emissions through the ICAO model

• CAEP model assessments to be provided by CAEP8

••ShortcomingsShortcomings•• Incomplete coverage: missing nonIncomplete coverage: missing non--scheduled and scheduled and

Business Jet trafficBusiness Jet traffic•• Data are not actual traffic data (timetable)Data are not actual traffic data (timetable)•• Data (Fuel cost) provided by States are not reliable Data (Fuel cost) provided by States are not reliable

enough due to a lack of reportingenough due to a lack of reporting

••Next stepsNext steps•• State Letter sent in May for an improved data collection State Letter sent in May for an improved data collection

on fuel consumption for the last 5 years integrating on fuel consumption for the last 5 years integrating notably the nonnotably the non--scheduled trafficscheduled traffic

•• Continue to provide estimations of CO2 emissions Continue to provide estimations of CO2 emissions through the ICAO modelthrough the ICAO model

•• CAEP model assessments to be provided by CAEP8CAEP model assessments to be provided by CAEP8

Conclusion and next stepsConclusion and next stepsco

nclu

sion

Download - Presentation to GIACC 2 ICAO Secretariat briefing on ... · ICAO Secretariat briefing on available data in relation with the GIACC process Montreal 14th July 2008 Presentation to

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