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2010 FIFA World Cup South AfricaAn Analysis of Key Issues and Opinions Through Online Media

March 2009


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| Copyright 2009 Grail Research, LLCMarch 2009 2

2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa

Executive Summary

South Africa is the first African nation chosen to host the FIFA

World Cup

The country plans to spend more than $ 3.7 Bn in preparation

for the event and expects to gain a number of benefits

including an upgrade to the countrys infrastructure, new job

creation and higher tourist inflow as a result

This study analyzes content on online media sources to gain

insight into global perceptions about the 2010 World Cup and

South Africa as the hosting nation

Context

The key issues being discussed on global online media

sources are: security concerns in South Africa, infrastructure

readiness for the event, impact on tourism in South Africa,

and risk of political agitation at the event

The most frequently discussed topic is concern about crime

and personal safety, which many people expect will worsen

during the event. This is seen as a big risk against the

success of the 2010 World Cup

Opinions on Infrastructure readiness are mixed. SouthAfricans express greater confidence that the nation will be

ready relative to people from other geographies

People across the world expect the 2010 World Cup to have a

positive impact on tourism in the country as they believe that

South Africa has a lot to offer

There is also concern that the event could be used by

activists for political agitation against regional crises such as

the ongoing crisis in Zimbabwe Overall, Africans are more optimistic about the success of

2010 World Cup vis--vis people outside of Africa

Key Conclusions

Our online media analysis reveals a number of concerns, shared globally, about the 2010 FIFA World Cup in SouthAfrica. As illustrated through case examples in this study, many of these concerns can be managed by engaging withthe public and stakeholders directly and through online media, leveraging traditional media, and employing PR firms


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Table of Contents

Introduction to Online Media Analysis


Introduction and Approach

Analysis of Key Issues

Case Studies on Managing Public Perceptions

About Grail Research


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Everyday People Talk and Listen to Each Other

Through Online Media

ONLINE

COMMUNITIES

PRODUCT

REVIEWS

BLOGSFORUMS

EDUCATION SOCIAL

NETWORKING


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What Can Be Learned Through Online Media Analysis?

1. Gain insight into public perception about an event /issue

2. Deeper understanding of public perception on thebasis of regions or themes

Provides organizations with:

1. Immediate and real-time public reactions to an event /

issue2. Most significant areas of public concern regarding an

event / issue

3. Longitudinal view of change in perception over time

We have conducted several online media studies

across sectors in the past :1. Analysis of user/expert opinions on a new web

browser within the first week of its launch

2. Analysis of user/expert opinions to gauge thesuccess/reception of a new mobile product

3. Similar studies in other research areas includinghealthcare, beverages, automobiles, technology, etc.


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Table of Contents








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Note:1

Conversion done using average monthly exchange rate of ZAR 1 = USD 0.13131 for August 2008Source: South Africa 2010 Website; Engineering News; South Africa Info Website; The Times of India; News 24; South Africa: The Good News

South Africa is expected to have a number of developmental benefits through preparations forthe 2010 FIFA World Cup


Introduction

South Africa will host the 19th FIFA World Cup in 2010

This is the first time that an African country will host this prestigious event

Context

The event is driving the construction of five new stadiums and the renovation of five existing stadiums across nine cities

at an expected cost of $ 1.36 Bn

1

(ZAR 10.4 Bn) An additional $ 1.2 Bn (ZAR 9 Bn) is expected to be spent on other infrastructure projects, including transportation

Other expected improvements include security, telecommunications, health, recreation, arts and culture, etc.

Preparatory Measures

The numerous developmental activities being planned for the event are expected to have long-term benefits for SouthAfrica. Some of the benefits include:

Improved transportation facilities and better security infrastructure

Creation of temporary jobs and training opportunities for citizens

For example, construction of the Green Point Stadium in Cape Town has led to the creation of 2,143 on-site jobsas of January 2009. Training has also been given to 1,179 artisans employed for the construction work

About 400,000 foreign tourists are expected visit South Africa during the World Cup. It is estimated that an additional2 MM international tourists will visit the country between 2007 and 2015 as a result of increased exposure due to theWorld Cup

Benefits




Research Approach and Criteria (1 of 2)

Executed research across blogs,discussion forums, newspapers,and magazines for comments,opinions and reviews related to the2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa

Only English-based sources wereincluded in the research

Objective: The study analyzes online media to evaluate public perception on South Africa as the 2010 FIFAWorld Cup hosting nation

AnalyzeSearch Categorize

Categorized comments, opinionsand reviews into different themes

Iterated to refine these themes intofinal categories; namely, impact ontourism, infrastructure readiness,security concerns, and politicalagitation risk

Analyzed data within each categoryfor interesting trends and insights

Undertook additional research andanalysis on intriguing findings

Developed case examples ofinitiatives by other countries tomanage public perception in similarsituations



Number of unique URLson the Web

# of sources visitedand reviewed

# of sourcesused for final

analysis

~1MM**

~1,500

55


Research Approach and Criteria (2 of 2)

Criteria for short-listing information sources

The key criteria for choosing information sources were:

Latest information: ~ 85% of the chosen data sources were

published post January 2008

Types of sources: The selected sources covered opinion

forums, blogs, news articles, etc. However, sources containing

similar content (e.g., quoting official press releases) were

considered only once

~1 Tr*

Note: *Data as of July 2008 from Googles official blog; **Number estimated using Google search engine

Of the thousands of available online media sources, 55 were short-listed based on theircoverage of key elements such as security, infrastructure, tourism, politics, etc.

# of sources discussingWorld Cup 2010



Table of Contents









Overall Argument Frequency Key Areas of Discussion


Opinion Analysis Summary

Source: Grail Analysis of Various Blogs, Forums and Articles

60

41

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

PositiveOpinions

NegativeOpinions

#ofOpinions

1-5

-3

-40 -20 0 20 40

-32 14Security Concerns

-20 16Infrastructure Readiness

10Impact on Tourism

Political Agitation Risk

Negative Opinions

Positive Opinions

# of Opinions

Security concerns and infrastructure readiness of South Africa are the key topics beingdiscussed on the 2010 World Cup forums

FIFA W ld C S h Af i




Opinion Analysis Security Concerns


Number of Opinions: 46

11%

20%

-59%

-11%

Increased security will ensure safety

Current security situation is not very bad

South Africa has serious security concerns

Crime will increase during World Cup

0%

15%

-15%

-30%

-46%

-76%

30%

-61%

Pros

Cons

Do you guys actually think this will last long after FIFA marks its spot in South Africa? Security willskyrocket and the foreigners will be kept safe. People are just exaggerating things (May 2008)

Like any other country South Africa has its own problems, but vacationers here are in no more dangerthan any other country in the world (January 2009)

My friends visited South Africa and had to be escorted by armed guards everywhere they wentTheSouth Africa government has quit releasing crime statistics because they were scaring tourists off(June 2008)

Given all of the recent violence in South Africa against foreigners with over 50 deaths and endlesscounts of rape against women, should FIFA be looking to host this competition elsewhere?it shouldbe awarded to England who will do a much better job of hosting it (May 2008)

with the money involved in the World Cup and the certain massive influx of tourists and their money,criminal gangs and opportunists are believed to be looking to exploit the event to their own ends(February 2008)

However the current World Cup 2010 news is not good at allFor the first time, I am thinking I dontwant to go - I dont want to spend the money, I dont want to be in an unsafe environment (July 2008)

%o

fInciden

ce

A majority of the opinions indicate a negative view on the current security situation in SouthAfrica, and people expect it to deteriorate further during the 2010 World Cup

2010 FIFA W ld C S h Af i




Infrastructural progress is as per schedule/satisfactory

Existing infrastructure in South Africa is very poor

Completion of infrastructural plans for World Cup is doubtful

17%

28%

-31%

-22%

New infrastructure will leave a legacy for South Africa after World Cup

-33%

-67%

-17%

-50%

50%

33%

0%

17%


Pros

Cons

A revolutionized public transport system is seen as one of the most important legacies that SouthAfrica will secure from hosting the World Cup. The focus is on bus rapid transit systems, improved railfacilities, the integration of existing transport services (November 2008)

In February 2008 FIFA said that South Africa is arguably ahead of previous World Cup organizers atthis comparative stageall ten World Cup stadiums remain on track to meet the 2010 deadline

(November 2008)

Apparently the power situation in South Africa is severe with regular load shedding which is costingbusinesses millions and also threatens to delay World Cup construction. Traffic congestion has gottenso bad due to traffic lights going out when the power does (January 2008)

Four venues were supposed to be completed by December [2008] but are still not completedTheother six World Cup venues are scheduled to be finished in December [2009] but there is littleconfidence those deadlines will be met (January 2009)

The system for issuing transport permits is in total chaos. (November 2008)

%o

fInciden

ce

Opinions are mixed on the progress of infrastructural development within South Africa for the2010 World Cup


Opinion Analysis Infrastructure Readiness

2010 FIFA W ld C S th Af i




8%

15%

23%

31%

-15%

World Cup offers tourism growth prospects for whole of Africa

Other than World Cup, South Africa has a lot to offer to visiting tourists

Global economic crisis will not significantly impact the number of World Cup tourists

Tourism industry will experience high growth due to World Cup

Global economic crisis will significantly reduce the number of World Cup tourists

0%

81%

27%

54%

-27%

South Africa should undertake more promotional activities

-8%


Opinion Analysis Impact on Tourism

Pros

Cons

Other than World Cup, there is much to see and have fun in South Africa ... All you have to do is makea trip through the vibrant cities to make out the beauty that is quite outstanding (January 2009)

the weakened economic climate around the world would not result in a decrease in the expectednumber of 2010 visitors to South Africa. He said that fans will do whatever it takes to make it to SouthAfrican shores for the first-ever football World Cup to be held on the continent (January 2009)

South Africa is expecting to welcome around 400 000 foreign touristsfor the World Cup. SouthAfrica will welcome an additional two million international tourists between 2007 and 2015 as a resultof increased exposure of being the Host Country for the 2010 FIFA World Cup(November 2008)

South Africa could be victims of circumstances beyond their control, notably the global creditcrunch when South Africa first bid for the World Cup finals, it was estimated the tournament wouldattract about 900,000 visitors to the country. Now the predicted number is less than half that number

(January 2009)

Note:1

Chief Communications Officer;2

Local Organizing CommitteeSource: Grail Analysis of Various Blogs, Forums and Articles

%o

fIncidence

A majority of the opinions share a positive view on the expected growth of tourism in SouthAfrica as a result of the World Cup





17%

-50%

-33%

Political unrest should not adversely impact the World Cup

Zimbabwe crisis poses a threat to the World Cup

World Cup will give activists a chance to voice their anti-government opinions

0%

17%

-17%

-33%

-50%

-67%

-83%


Opinion Analysis Political Agitation Risk

Pros

Cons

Exactly why did he [Peter Roebuck, Writer/Commentator] say the 2010 World Cup should be taken outof South Africa? Trying to marry politics and sport where they should remain apart has often beenshown to be a folly Lets try not to punish sports for the errors of politicians (April 2007)

Its about time the world realized that South Africa is impeding any solution of the crisis in

ZimbabweOne correspondent Clapperton Mavhunga has made an interesting suggestion. Letsmount a campaign to demand that the South Africans choose between their continued support ofMugabe or lose the 2010 World Cup (December 2008)

Local activists only see one major advantage to the World Cup 2010: with so many foreign sportsjournalists expected to descend on the country, they say, this will give them unprecedented access tothe international news media who will descend on the country (December 2008)

%o

fInciden

ce


The political and economic crisis in Zimbabwe is perceived to be an important issue that mighthave a negative impact on the 2010 World Cup





Global Comparison Region-wise Perception

Note: Themes with percentage of positive and negative opinions in the range 40-60% have been classified as neutral; 1Institute for Security StudiesSource: Grail Analysis of various Blogs, Forums and Articles

Positive

Neutral

Negative

US Infrastructure: They dont have enough resources to put the

proper infrastructure stadiums they play the games in theroads and transportation cost MillionsAnd unfortunatelySouth Africa just doesnt have the cash (May 2007)

Security: My friends visited South Africa and had to be escortedby armed guards everywhere they wentThe South Africagovernment has quit releasing crime statistics because they werescaring tourists off (Jun 2008)

South Africa

Infrastructure: A revolutionized public transport system is seenas one of the most important legacies .. from hosting the WorldCup (Nov 2007)

Tourism: fans will do whatever it takes to make it to thefirst-ever football World Cup to be held on the continent (Jan2009)

Security: Some members of South Africa's poorly paid policeforce are vulnerable to corruption and could target tourists duringthe 2010 Soccer World Cup for bribes(Jul 2008)

Politics: Said the Anti-Privatization ForumThe World Cupwill be our chance to make our voices heard... (Dec 2008)

Australia Politics: why did he [Peter Roebuck] say the 2010 World

Cup should be taken out of South Africa?Lets try not topunish sports for the errors of politicians (Apr 2007)

Infrastructure: Law and order is non-existent and publictransport is so unreliable that one is likely to be stranded inthe kind of neighborhood you dont want to be in (Apr 2007)

Security: Wouldn't recommend SA to any traveler,dangerous, violent place, do be very careful (Sep 2008)

Western Europe Tourism: Other than World Cup, there is much to see and have

fun in South Africacities and towns are unexplainably beautiful(Nov 2008)

Security: he [a colleague] was attacked in Johannesburg and escaped death only by having serious operations (Jan 2008)

Infrastructure: Most of the existing facilities were designed forrugby or cricket with dubious structural stability... (Jul 2006)

Politics: It would have been nice for SA with all the otherchallenges they are facing not to have the problem of Zimbabwe(Jul 2008)

Southern Africa (excluding South Africa) Security: Every country has crime and we have seen a lot of

criminal activities in other countries that hosted the World Cup(Jun 2008)

Infrastructure: think of transport system improvement, shopsand supermarketswell have great tournament (Oct 2006) Politics: Its about time world realized that SA is impeding any

solution of the crisis in Zimbabwe...Lets mount a campaign todemand that South Africans choose between their continuedsupport of Mugabe or lose the 2010 World Cup (Dec 2008)

Northern Europe Tourism: The World Cup is being seen as an [tourism]

opportunity for all of Africa (Jan 2009) Security: with the certain massive influx of tourists and

their money, criminal gangs and opportunists are believed to belooking to exploit the event to their own ends (Feb 2008) Infrastructure: Some areas have almost no public transport.

The country has been paralyzed by power cuts after decadesof under-investment (Jun 2008)





Global Comparison South Africa vs. Rest of the World


South Africa Rest of the World

Contrary to opinions from other geographies, South Africans believe that their country isprogressing satisfactorily towards infrastructure readiness for the 2010 World Cup

1

23 9

17 4

1 3

4

Negative Opinions

0 14 281428

# of Opinions

9 5Security Concerns

3 12Infrastructure Readiness

2 7Impact on Tourism

1Political Agitation Risk

Positive Opinions

0 14714 7

# of Opinions

South Africa's poorly paid police forceare vulnerable to corruption and could targettourists during the 2010 Soccer World Cup

for bribes, (July 2008)

the work would be finished onschedule and there were no

concerns over financingbecause it was secured beforethe current financial crisis

(November 2008)

neither the economic turmoil,nor events in Zimbabwe, wouldprevent tourists from attending

World Cup (January 2009)

Said a spokesman for the Anti-Privatization ForumThe World Cupwill be our chance to make our voices

heard... (December 2008)

...local violence and cultural tension in South Africa isway up...For the first time, I am thinking I dont want to go- I dont want to risk anything happening down there so

far from the US/Europe (July 2008)

When they were given the hostingrights .., there was much joy andexcitement , but recent events -

including the uncertainty over thecompletion of the several stadia -

have seen the celebrationsdampened (May 2008)

Other than World Cup, there is much tosee and have fun in South Africathe

cities and towns are unexplainablybeautiful (January 2009)

South Africa has to only answer toZimbabwes problemsan active campaignneeds to be launched for FIFA to havePlan B set back in motion (December2008)



Table of Contents











Case Studies on Managing Public Perceptions (1 of 3)

With the growing adoption of online media in public dialogue, it can be a very effectivechannel in complementing traditional media to monitor and shape stakeholder perceptions

Leveraging Online Media Engaging Traditional Media Channels

Online media offers a potent option to generate positive perception

for a region, among platform users. Online media activities include:

Posting regional videos on online video hosting sites

Creating blogs and forums to share opinions

Organizing online Q&A sessions using web

services such as Twitter (a real-time short

messaging service)

Examples

Israel has extensively used online media to

try and manage their image in light of the

ongoing violence in Gaza

Israel has a military channel on YouTube

Online blogs are being run by Israels Foreign

Affairs Ministry providing opinion on various issues Q&A sessions are conducted between Israeli officials

and general internet users through Twitter

The Indian Ministry of Tourism has launched an India Brand

Channel on YouTube to promote India as a tourism destination

Media plays an important role in shaping foreigners perceptions andis also used to showcase positive facets of a region by :

Expanding the reach of the countrys media byopening new overseas media offices, and offeringthe countrys existing media in foreign languages

Sharing/showcasing the countrys rich and vibrantheritage with foreign media delegates through

Training programs/tours for foreign journalists Easing travel restrictions for foreign journalists

during special events

Examples

In January 2009, the Chinese governmentallocated ~$ 6.6 Bn for media effortsdirected at foreigners

In 2008, Belarus spent ~$ 1 MM to advertise

the region as an attractive touristdestination

Belarus also has plans to openinformation centers in a number of citiesincluding Paris and Berlin

Source: Center for Media and Democracy (US); BBC; Inter Press Service; Agence France-Presse; Xinhua






PR firms have been employed by many countries to shape and manage public perceptions,generally or around specific events

Hiring PR Firms to Improve Global Image Other Measures

International PR firms employ structured initiatives to improve the

global perception of a country. The end objective is achieved through

a number of PR activities such as:

Providing an international platform to the countrys

leaders by arranging meetings/interviews

with foreign broadcasters and publications

Showcasing positive aspects of the country

by running country-specific programs and

supplements in overseas TV networks

and publications

Hiring lobbying firms to favorably modify

the perception of leaders and government

agencies within target countries

Examples

Post the 9/11 incident, Saudi Arabia hired Qorvis,

a Washington based PR firm, to successfully

project Riyadh as a close American ally

Similarly, Israel and Belarus have employed PR firms to

improve their global perception

Countries such as Kenya have undertaken a mix of innovative

initiatives to improve their global image. Some of these include:

Sending delegations of government bodies,

hoteliers and tour operators to other countries

Organizing trips for external media members to

showcase positive facets of the country

Organizing promotional road shows in other

geographies

Often governments partner with private

hospitality firms to draw foreign visitors

by offering attractive incentives

Providing government support to

promotional campaigns by hospitality

firms such as subsidized airline tickets,

special packages by tour operators, etc

Source: Highland Business Research; NY Times; eTurboNews; The Information Company






Coca-Cola and Pepsi launched a series of campaigns across forums to refute allegations ofpesticide contamination in their products and to win back the confidence of Indian consumers

Case of Pesticide Allegations against Coca-Cola and Pepsi in India

In August 2003, the Center for Science and Environment in India released a report claiming that Coca-Cola and Pepsi soft drink products, sold inIndia, contained unsafe levels of pesticides

Dissatisfied with the governments response, the center launched another similar report in August 2006 leading to the following reactions:

Several state governments including those of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Punjab introduced partial bans on the sale of these products intheir states

The BJP, one of Indias leading national political parties, called for a nation-wide ban on the sale of these products

Many regional politicians staged several protests by smashing Coca-Cola and Pepsi bottles in public

To counter these allegations Pepsi and Coca-Cola successfully launched multi-faceted campaigns to win back consumers confidence

Source: CSE; Coca-Cola; BusinessWeek; International Herald Tribune; Organic Consumer Association; Ethical Corporation; BBC; USA Today; Food Navigator

Coca-Cola and Pepsi issued several press statements andadvertisements disputing allegations

Pepsi published advertisements showing its testing methods andannouncing that The safest thing you are likely to drink today is aPepsi

In August 2006, Coca-Cola posted details of its testing and qualityprocedures for Indian products on its Indian website

Reaching Out to Consumers Involving National Associations

Assessments by Independent Groups Media Related Efforts

Coca-Cola arranged for independent evaluations by reputedagencies

In August 2006, the Central Science Laboratory of the UKannounced that pesticide levels were within limits proposed by theIndian government

In January 2008, the Energy and Resources Institute in India statedthat the water used in Coca-Cola products was free from pesticides

In August 2006, Coca-Cola offered to take Indian consumers on aguided tours of its processing plants

According to company officials, they were contacted by ~2,000consumers who were interested in such tours

Garnered support from Indian Soft Drinks ManufacturersAssociation (ISDMA) to address consumer concerns

In August 2006, ISDMA announced that Indian products met safetystandards set by health and regulatory bodies across the world

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Download - Online Media Analysis of the 2010 FIFA World Cup

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