Long range forecast and climate projections for Southeast Europe

Vladimir DjurdjevicSouth East European Virtual Climate Change Centre

Long Range Forecast Node - Seasonal forecast for SEE -

• provides statistical summary of the atmosphere and ocean state in coming season.

● Probabilistic forecast

● RCM-SEEVCCC LRF (Long Range Forecast – Seasonal Forecast)

• model start: 16th of each month• forecast duration: 7 months (~215 days)• model resolution: ~35km atmosphere ; ~20km ocean• model domain: Euro - Mediterranean region extended toward Caspian Sea• 41 ensemble members • initial and boundary conditions: ECMWF, resolution:125km• results prepared for South East European region in form of: mean ensemble maps (mean 2m temperature, precipitation accumulation, temperature anomaly and precipitation anomaly with respect to CRU data 1961-1990) for month and three months (season) diagrams (probabilistic forecast of mean monthly temperature and monthly precipitation accumulation for specific place)

• regional dynamical downscaling using fully coupled atmosphere-ocean Regional Climate Model

Probabilistic Long Range Forecast

Maps of ensemble mean

Additional: SST anomaly

● Example for LRF products

Examples of LRF products and verification, preliminary results

Examples of LRF products and verification, preliminary results

Climate change scenarios:

•Downscaling of SINTEX-G (INGV/CMCC)•Coupled regional climate model RCM-SEEVCCC (NCEP Eta – Princeton Ocean Model)

A1B: 2001-2030A1B: 2071-2100A2: 2071-2100

Climate change scenarios:

The model:

Fully (two-way) coupled atmosphere-ocean model.

Atmosphere: NCEP Eta with changed radiation scheme (Chou i Suarez, 1999, Peres et al, 2006)

Ocean: POM

Single code, atmosphere+ocean+coupler.

Hi-frequency coupling, order of minutes.

A2O: surface turbulent fluxes of momentum and heat, radiation fluxes and precipitation.O2A: sea surface temperature.

Exchange works without any flux correction.

Climate change scenarios:

Annual temperature and precipitation change:

A1B: 2001-2030 A1B: 2071-2100 A2: 2071-2100

● Regional dynamical downscaling provides information with more details about present climate and future climate changes.

1. Subotica-Horgos2. Srem3. Banat4. Sumadija5. West Morava6. Timok7. Nisava-South Morava8. Pocerac9. Kosovo

● Example of RCM-SEEVCCC climate projections application

● Important for different impact studies especially on regional level: energy, hydrology, agriculture, environmental protection, industry,..

● Summer Drying Problem (CLAVIER project) It is well known that Climate models in region of Pannonian valley have significant BIAS, therefore it is necessary to apply more complex BIAS correction for climate change impact.

● Example: Application of Climate Projections in Vineyard Regions in Serbia

Results for 2071-2100 (A2):• growing season: beginning April → March growing degree days 1440 → 2400 duration 200 → 240 days above tolerable warmer and dryer• rest season: beginning one month later first frost date ~15days later number of frost days 90 → 50 no appearance of critical temp. <-15CClimate in present vineyard regions (<400m alt.)Shifts on ~1000m altitude

Primer studije uticaja: Uzgoj vinove loze na teritoriji RS (Vukovic et al, 2010)

Klasifikacija klimatskih zona pogodnih za uzgoj vinove loze na osnovu vrednosti tri odgovarajuca indexa

Some selected results…Heliothermal index change Dryness index change Cool night index change

present climate

future climate

spring autumn

beginning ending

winter winter

first frost date

duration: 200 → 240 daysgrowing degree days: 1400 → 2400

number of frost days: 90 → 50num. of days Tmin<-15C: 3 → 0warmer, dryer!

Mountain station ~1000m altitude enters the climate regime of present vineyard regions!

growing season

Summary