Transcript

Livestock evacuation or not:Livestock evacuation or not:An Emergency Response

Assessment Of Natural Disasters

Dr. Thomas Wilson

Dr. André Dantas

Professor Jim Cole

Resilient Organisations Research Programme

Christchurch, New Zealand

or

How realistic are How realistic are our evacuation our evacuation expectations? expectations?

Presentation outline

•Context

•Logistics of livestock evacuation

•Assessment framework

•Conclusions

•Case study

CONTEXT

New Zealand

Context

volcanic eruptions

Context

What to do with livestock?

Evacuation or not?

How to deal with large volumes to be transported?

How to coordinate efforts?

Which types of animals to evacuate?

Logistics of livestock

evacuation

Logistics

•Warning

•Event observation

•Event assessment

•Updating

•Action

•Re-assessment

Logistics processes and decision making

Assessment framework

Assessment framework

•Define the livestock evacuation scenario

•Assign available trucks to affected areas

•Compute loading time

•Conduct network analysis

•Identify “safe” destinations

•Assess the livestock evacuation performance

•Decision making

Case Study

CaseStudy

Volcanic eruption scenario

Location

CaseStudy

Volcanic eruption scenario

Distribution ash fall

Given a 50 mm ash fall:

•528 farms selected for evacuation;

•77,199 hectares;

•208 thousand cows;

•Urban centres exposed to 2mm-ash fall considered not safe destinations;

CaseStudy

Assignment of available trucks to affected areas

Using existing and specifically designed livestock truck and trailer units

•Full evacuation – 5520 truck trips;

•Full efficient evacuation – 5004 truck trips; and

•Partial (50%) evacuation – 2902 truck trips.

CaseStudy

Computation of loading time

CaseStudy

Identification of “safe” destinations

Cows evacuated to urban centres located over 200 Km from the volcano

CaseStudy

Network Analysis

Travel Time Total Time Evacuation Plan

Traffic Assignment Method

Hours Days Hours Days

All or nothing 27,061 1,127.5 43,621 1,817.5

User optimum 27,823 1,159 44,383 1,849

1

(Full Evacuation) System optimum 27,760 1,157 44,320 1847

All or nothing 24,162 1,007 39,174 1,632.5

User optimum 24,698 1,029 39,710 1,654.5

2

(Full efficient evacuation) System optimum 24,641 1,027 39,653 1,652.5

All or nothing 14,013 584 22,719 947

User optimum 14,440 602 23,146 965

3

(Partial evacuation) System optimum 14,413 601 23,119 964

CaseStudy

Assessment of the livestock evacuation performanceScenario

Plan Estimated Loading/

Unloading Time Cost

Traffic Assignment

Method

Estimated Travel

Time Cost

Total Estimated Evacuation

Transport Cost

All or nothing 1,304 2,102

User optimum 1,341 2,139

1 (Full

Evacuation)

798

System optimum

1,338 2,136

All or nothing 1,164 1,888

User optimum 1,190 1,914 2

(Full efficient

Evacuation)

723

System optimum

1,187 1,911

All or nothing 675 1,095

User optimum 696 1,115

3 (Partial

evacuation)

419

System optimum

694 1,114

CaseStudy

Assessment of the livestock evacuation performance

Stock Trucks Required Deadline 7 days 10 days 14 days 21 days 28 days

Evacuation Scenario 1

264 185 132 88 66

Evacuation Scenario 2

236 165 118 79 59

Evacuation Scenario 3

137 97 69 46 34

CaseStudy

Decision making

•extreme difficulty in evacuating the required number of dairy cows in an acceptable period of time;

•likely and feasible that a small, limited evacuation of livestock of high genetic value and diversity could be undertaken

•need for at least a 3 month warning to implement an effective evacuation of all livestock.

Conclusion

•Each type of hazard will pose different levels of logistics challenge in terms of livestock evacuation;

•Livestock evacuation due to volcanic eruption:

•No enough time;

•Considerable vehicle requirements;

•Efficiency if sophisticated vehicle control techniques are employed;

•Doubtful if surrounding farms can accommodate additional cows;

•Full scale livestock evacuation should NOT be attempted;

•Mitigation options should be put in place to minimize likely losses.

Thank you

Dr. André Dantas

Resilient Organisations Research ProgrammeUniversity of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand

www.resorgs.org.nz


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