LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS

PERUPART 2: LANDSLIDES

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna,

Virginia, USA 

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN PERU DISASTERS IN PERU

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN PERU DISASTERS IN PERU

FLOODS

LANDSLIDES

EARTHQUAKES—HUAYCOS--TSUNAMIS

VOLCANOES

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT

HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT

GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES

GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIESAND COMMUNITIES

Natural Phenomena that Cause Disasters

Planet Earth’s atmospheric, hydrospheric, and lithospheric interactions cause LANDSLIDES

PERU: ON THE SOUTH AMERICAN TECTONIC PLATE

Peru is affected often by landslides as the result of its steep slopes; also many are

triggered by floods and earthquakes

LANDSLIDES represent permanent

deformation caused by the downward and outward, down-

slope movements of large volumes of soil and/or rock

under the influence of the force of gravity.

LANDSLIDES represent permanent

deformation caused by the downward and outward, down-

slope movements of large volumes of soil and/or rock

under the influence of the force of gravity.

PHYSICS OF LANDSLIDES

• Landslides occur naturally on slopes.

• Landslides can be triggered and/or exacerbated by: 1) water (from precipitation during a tropical storm, hurricane, or typhoon), or 2) vibrations (from ground shaking during an earthquake).

A DISASTER is ---

--- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help  when three continuums: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., landslides, ...) intersect at a point in space and time.

Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause

extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness,

joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• When it does happen, the functions of the community’s buildings and infrastructure will be LOST because they are UNPROTECTED with the appropriate codes and standards.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is UN-PREPARED for what will likely happen, not to mention the low-probability of occurrence—high-probability of adverse consequences event.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for concerted local, national, regional, and international countermeasures.

THE REASONS ARE . . .

• The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences.

TOWARDS LANDSLIDE DISASTER RESILIENCETOWARDS LANDSLIDE DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL LANDSLIDES PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL THE LIKELY HAZARDS IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

PERU’S PERU’S COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES

PERU’S PERU’S COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES

DATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

• LANDSLIDE HAZARDS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

LANDSLIDE RISK LANDSLIDE RISK

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

LANDSLIDE DISASTER LANDSLIDE DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•FORECASTS/SCENARIOS•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS

HAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDS

ELEMENTS OF LANDSLIDE ELEMENTS OF LANDSLIDE RISKRISK

ELEMENTS OF LANDSLIDE ELEMENTS OF LANDSLIDE RISKRISK

EXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSURE

VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATION

RISKRISKRISKRISK

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL LANDSLIDES PROTECTION OF PEOPLE, BUILDINGS, AND INFRASTRUCTURE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL LANDSLIDES EARLY WARNING AND LOCAL EVACUATION ARE ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

LANDSLIDE HAZARDS:

ARE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS

A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A LANDSLIDE INTERACT WITH

THE BUILT ENVIRONMENTS OF PERU’S COMMUNITIES

A DISASTER CAN HAPPENWHEN THE

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF A LANDSLIDE INTERACT WITH

THE BUILT ENVIRONMENTS OF PERU’S COMMUNITIES

LANDSLIDE HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS)

• DOWN-SLOPE MOVEMENT OF SOIL AND/OR ROCK (CAN FORM A LAKE)

• DOWN-SLOPE FLOW OF WET SOIL (AKA MUDFLOW; CAN BURY A VILLAGE)

• LATERAL SPREADING OF SOIL AND/OR ROCK (CAN CAUSE PERMANENT DEFORMATION TO INFRASTRUCTURE)

SITING AND BUILDING ON UNSTABLE SLOPES

LANDSLIDESLANDSLIDES

SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO FALLS

SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO TOPPLES

SOIL AND ROCK SUCEPTIBLE TO SPREADS

SOIL AND ROCK SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOWS

PRECIPITATION THAT TRIGGERS SLOPE FAILURE SHAKING

GROUND SHAKING THAT TRIGGERS SLOPE FAILURE

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

CASE HISTORIESCASE HISTORIES

LESSONS LEARNED FROM ALL LANDSLIDES

• ALL LANDSLIDES TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

PERU’S MOST NOTABLE LANDSLIDES

NOTE: IT IS NOT ONLY PERU’S POOREST OF THE POOR WHO OFTEN LIVE IN

LANDSLIDE-PRONE LOATIONS THAT ARE AT RISK,

BUT ALSO THE TOURISTS WHO VISIT THE SAME PLACES

RAIN AND MUDSLIDES INCREASE GROWING CONCERNS ABOUT

LANDSLIDE RISK IN MACHU PICCHU

2,500 TOURISTS STRANDED

JANUARY 28, 2010

MACHU PICCHU

More than 300,000 people a year make the trip to Machu Picchu to marvel at the 500-year-old

structures built from blocks of granite chiseled from the

mountainside

On January 28, 2010, rain and mudflows devastated the homes of thousands of Peruvians living in the vicinity of Machu Picchu and created havoc for tourists visiting Machu Picchu and the

Peruvian authorities.

Peruvian authorities used helicopters to airlift some of the foreign tourists trapped by rain and mudslides that killed seven people visiting the famed Inca

ruins.

More than 2,500 others were left stranded: 1,900 in nearby Aguas Calientes and 670 more on the Inca Trail, the narrow Andean

pathway up to Machu Picchu that had been cut in several places

by mudslides.

Stranded tourists were temporarily left sleeping in the

street square, in gyms, in schools, on trains, and in

makeshift tents.

Two landslides—one in December 1995 and another a month later—

that occurred on the road that zigzags up the steep embankment

from Aguas Calientes to Machu Picchu had already raised

international concerns about the risk to tourists and Machu Picchu.

,

The International Counsel of Scientific Associations prepared a landslide hazard assessment

report for UNESCO in 1999, warning of the possibility of a

landslide disaster at Machu Picchu.

Geologists at Kyoto University in Japan concluded recently that a massive landslide could send the stone ruins of Machu Picchu

crashing into the Urubamba River below.

Now, many worry that a major landslide may be imminent at

Machu Picchu and that it will be a big one; …

But no one knows when it will happen, or exactly what to do

about it.

WORST LANDSLIDE: 1970 IN PERU

• A M7.9 earthquake that occurred offshore Peru in 1970 triggered a massive landslide of snow and rock in the Nevados Huascaran Mountains.

• 100 million cubic km of rock and soil buried Yungay, Ramrahirca, and several villages, killing 18,000.

ANOTHER NOTABLE LANDSLIDE IN PERU IS INEVITABLE

ANOTHER NOTABLE LANDSLIDE IN PERU IS INEVITABLE

• THE PERUVIANS HAVE A MUCH BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE IMPORTANCE OF LANDSLIDE DISASTER RESILIENCE SINCE THE 2010 EVENT AND THE 1970 NEVADOS HUASCARA MTMS. LANDSLIDE DISASTER

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR LANDSLIDE DISASTER RESILIENCEEMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR

LANDSLIDE DISASTER RESILIENCE

• REAL TIME WEATHER FORCASTING AND WARNING SYSTEMS

• MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., STREAM GAGUES)

• RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)

• REAL TIME WEATHER FORCASTING AND WARNING SYSTEMS

• MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., STREAM GAGUES)

• RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)

• HISTORICAL DATABASES FOR LANDSLIDE-PRONE AREAS

• MAPS: 100-YEAR AND 500-YEAR FLOODS; GROUND SHAKING

• EARTHQUAKE DISASTER SCENARIOS

• HISTORICAL DATABASES FOR LANDSLIDE-PRONE AREAS

• MAPS: 100-YEAR AND 500-YEAR FLOODS; GROUND SHAKING

• EARTHQUAKE DISASTER SCENARIOS