LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS
CHINA: PART III EDROUGHT EPISODES
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna,
Virginia, USA
NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE CHINA’S NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE CHINA’S COMMUNITIES AT RISK COMMUNITIES AT RISK
NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE CHINA’S NATURAL HAZARDS THAT PLACE CHINA’S COMMUNITIES AT RISK COMMUNITIES AT RISK
FLOODS
TYPHOONS
EARTHQUAKES
LANDSLIDESS
DROUGHT EPISODES
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
ENACT AND IMPLEMENT POLICIES HAVING HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE
ENACT AND IMPLEMENT POLICIES HAVING HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR COMMUNITY RESILIENCE
GOAL: DISASTER GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE
GOAL: DISASTER GOAL: DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE
DROUGHT IN CHINA: 2010-2011
DROUGHT is an environmental extreme that is
characterized by an absence of precipitation in the local and
regional water cycle as a consequence of interactions of
elements of the atmosphere,
hydrosphere, and lithosphere.
DROUGHT is an environmental extreme that is
characterized by an absence of precipitation in the local and
regional water cycle as a consequence of interactions of
elements of the atmosphere,
hydrosphere, and lithosphere.
PROLONGED LACK OF PRECIPITATION
DROUGHTS DROUGHTS
LOSS OF SOIL MOSTURE
LOSS OF CROPS
DEPLETION/POLLUTION OF GROUND WATER
LOSS OF VEGETATION
INSECT INFESTATION
LOSS OF USE OF AG. LAND
CAUSES & CONSE-
QUENCES
CAUSES & CONSE-
QUENCES
DISASTER LABORATORIES
DISASTER LABORATORIES
THE 2010-2011 DROUGHT EPISODE IN CHINA
• The 2010–2011 drought episode, which began in late 2010 after a severe lack of rain and snow, was China’s worst drought episode in 60 years.
THE 2010-2011 DROUGHT EPISODE IN CHINA
• Eight of China’s provinces (Anhui, Gansu, Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shaanxi, Shandong, and Shanxi), all wheat -producing regions, were impacted by the drought.
MAP OF CHINA’S PROVINCES
IMPACTS
• The drought caused water shortages for an estimated 2.31 million people and 2.57 million livestock.
IMPACTS
• Within the eight provinces, 20% of the farmland and 35% of the wheat crop was impacted.
IMPACTS
• The Hubei lake shrank to one-eighth of its normal surface area and one-fifth its usual depth, forcing 3,234 local residents to relocate.
IMPACTS
• By June, 2011, the drought had affected 35 million people, including 4.2 million facing a drinking water shortage.
IMPACTS
• By June, direct economic losses had reached 15 billion yuan (about 2.3 billion USD).
THE PARADOX: While these 8 provinces
were experiencing drought, other provinces were
experiencing flooding.
UNDERSTANDING DROUGHT
A Slow-Onset, Natural Phenomenon That Can Happen
Anywhere
Drought– A Natural Phenomenon That Can Cause Disasters
Planet Earth’s atmospheric-oceanic-lithospheric interactions cause:
Droughts
CHARACTERISTICS OF DROUGHT
CHARACTERISTICS OF DROUGHT
• SLOW ONSET• DIVERSE IN LOCATION
AND DURATION• DIFFICULT TO
MEASURE THE DURATION AND THE EXTENT OF THE SOCIETAL IMPACTS
• SLOW ONSET• DIVERSE IN LOCATION
AND DURATION• DIFFICULT TO
MEASURE THE DURATION AND THE EXTENT OF THE SOCIETAL IMPACTS
DROUGHT HAZARDS
DROUGHT HAZARDS (AKA Potential disaster Agents)
• HIGH TEMPERATURES
• VERY LOW HUMIDITY
• LOSS OF SOIL MOISTURE
• VANISHING STREAMS, LAKES, AND WATER TABLES
DROUGHT LINKAGES AND RISKS
• Drought is linked to loss of water quantity and quality, which can lead to major loss of life (people and livestock), loss of livelihoods, loss of habitats, and sometimes famine.
NOTE:Between 108 BC and 1911
AD, 1,828 famines of varying severity occurred in China
(i.e., one nearly every year in at least one province)
NOTE:Millions in China have died
from lack of food.
DROUGHT RISKS
CHINA;S CHINA;S COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES
CHINA;S CHINA;S COMMUNITIESCOMMUNITIES
DATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS
•DROUGHT HAZARDS•LOCATIONS
DROUGHT RISK DROUGHT RISK
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
DROUGHT DISASTER DROUGHT DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE
•MONITORING • ADAPTATION•PREPAREDNESS
POLICY OPTIONSPOLICY OPTIONS
HAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDS
ELEMENTS OF RISKELEMENTS OF RISKELEMENTS OF RISKELEMENTS OF RISK
EXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSURE
VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATION
RISKRISKRISKRISK
E
DECREASE IN DECREASE IN WATER QUALITY WATER QUALITY
DECREASE IN DECREASE IN WATER QUALITY WATER QUALITY
UNACCEPTABLE RISKUNACCEPTABLE RISKUNACCEPTABLE RISKUNACCEPTABLE RISK
DECREASE IN WATER DECREASE IN WATER QUANTITY QUANTITY
DECREASE IN WATER DECREASE IN WATER QUANTITY QUANTITY
SUSCEPTIBILITY SUSCEPTIBILITY TO WILDFIRESTO WILDFIRES
SUSCEPTIBILITY SUSCEPTIBILITY TO WILDFIRESTO WILDFIRES
ECONOMIC LOSS; ECONOMIC LOSS; FAMINE; DEATHSFAMINE; DEATHS
ECONOMIC LOSS; ECONOMIC LOSS; FAMINE; DEATHSFAMINE; DEATHS
RISKRISKRISKRISK
DROUGHT RISKS (FOR A SLOW ONSET NATURAL
HAZARD)
• Loss of life (People and animals)
• Loss of livelihoods and habitats
• Loss of crops and agricultural land (e.g., from desertification)
• Reductions in water quantity and quality
DROUGHT RISKS (FOR A SLOW ONSET NATURAL
HAZARD)
• Large-scale migrations of people from areas experiencing droughts and famines.
FACILITATING ACHIEVEMENT OF DROUGHT DISASTER
RESILIENCE
FACILITATING ACHIEVEMENT OF DROUGHT DISASTER
RESILIENCE
EMERGING TECNOLOGIES
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR DROUGHT RESILIENCE
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR DROUGHT RESILIENCE
• WEATHER FORECASTS
• MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., REMOTE SENSING)
• WARNING SYSTEMS
• WEATHER FORECASTS
• MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., REMOTE SENSING)
• WARNING SYSTEMS
• DATABASES FOR PAST DROUGHTS
• COMPUTER MODELS OF DROUGHT
• MAPS • DISASTER
SCENARIOS• HAZARD
ASSESSMENT • RISK ASSESSMENT
• DATABASES FOR PAST DROUGHTS
• COMPUTER MODELS OF DROUGHT
• MAPS • DISASTER
SCENARIOS• HAZARD
ASSESSMENT • RISK ASSESSMENT
DROUGHT DISASTER RESILIENCE
DROUGHT DISASTER RESILIENCE
• PURPOSE
• IDENTIFICATION OF DROUGHT PRECURSORS
• ALERT AND WARNING
• PURPOSE
• IDENTIFICATION OF DROUGHT PRECURSORS
• ALERT AND WARNING
• TECHNIQUE• REMOTE SENSING;
SITE-SPECIFIC MONITORING; MODELING
• PUBLIC AWARENESS; EDUCATION
• TECHNIQUE• REMOTE SENSING;
SITE-SPECIFIC MONITORING; MODELING
• PUBLIC AWARENESS; EDUCATION
DROUGHT DISASTER RESILIENCEDROUGHT DISASTER RESILIENCE
• PURPOSE
• PROTECT WATER QUANTITY
• PROTECT WATER QUALITY
• PURPOSE
• PROTECT WATER QUANTITY
• PROTECT WATER QUALITY
• TECHNIQUE
• RESERVOIRS; CONSERVATION
• ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING; WATER TREATMENT
• TECHNIQUE
• RESERVOIRS; CONSERVATION
• ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING; WATER TREATMENT
DROUGHT DISASTER RESILIENCEDROUGHT DISASTER RESILIENCE
• PURPOSE
• LAND-USE CONTROL
• ADAPTATION TO THE SITUATION
• PURPOSE
• LAND-USE CONTROL
• ADAPTATION TO THE SITUATION
• TECHNIQUE
• DROUGHT-RESISTANT CROPS AND VEGETATION
• COMMUNITY DROUGHT RESPONSE PLAN
• TECHNIQUE
• DROUGHT-RESISTANT CROPS AND VEGETATION
• COMMUNITY DROUGHT RESPONSE PLAN
POLICY POLICY ADOPTIONADOPTION
POLICY POLICY ADOPTIONADOPTION
RISK ASSESSMENT
• VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY
• EXPOSUREEXPOSURE
• EVENTEVENT
POLICY ASSESSMENT
• COSTCOST
• BENEFITBENEFIT
•CONSEQUENCESCONSEQUENCES
TOWARDS DROUGHT DISASTER TOWARDS DROUGHT DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE
DROUGHTSDROUGHTSDROUGHTSDROUGHTS EXPECTED EXPECTED LOSSLOSS
EXPECTED EXPECTED LOSSLOSS
