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Impact of Global Warming to Energy Consumption and Public Health.

International Conference on Climate Change

Authors: K.S. Lam, W.Y. Fung, W.T. Hung, S.W. Pang, Cathy Lee

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Content

• Trends of temperature and energy consumption in Hong Kong

• Relationship between ambient temperature and power consumption

• Relationship between ambient temperature and Malaria/Dengue Fever

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HKO Headquarters

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HKO Temperature

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Tsim Sha Tsui Ambient Temperature (Yearly average)

y = 0.0095x + 4.0169

R2 = 0.1827

y = 0.0163x - 9.3065

R2 = 0.4562

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22

23

24

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1885 1905 1925 1945 1965 1985 2005

Deg

ree

C

Pre-development Urbanization

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Extreme Records of Tsim Sha Tsui’s Ambient Temperature

Hot years Cold years

Year Average

C

Year Average

C1 1998 24.02 1 1893 21.45

2 2002 23.92 2 1886 21.46

3 1966 23.83 3 1885 21.59

Mean

(114 yr)22.65

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Hong Kong also warming

• 0.9 to 1.5ºC in the last century. (Ding XL, 2002).

• Tsim Sha Tsui warming rate is higher than the global rate.

• Urbanization effect on top of Global warming.

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Impact of Global Warming on Energy Consumption

in Hong Kong

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Hong Kong Monthly Electricity Consumption

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

Tera

Joul

es

Domestic Commercial Industrial Total

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2003 Electrictiy Consumption in TJ

Month

Temperature °C

Domestic Commercial

Jan 16.1 1884 6142

Feb 18.5 1960 5795

Mar 19.0 1811 6212

Apr 23.9 1986 6674

May 26.9 2766 7749

Jun 27.7 3424 7932

July 29.6 4239 8833

Aug 28.8 4767 8838

Sep 27.6 4113 8440

Oct 25.3 4059 8312

Nov 22.2 1347 7231

Dec 17.6 2008 6678

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Domestic Electricity and Temperature

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

10 15 20 25 30 35C

TJ

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Domestic Electricity and Temperature Regression

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

10 15 20 25 30 35C

TJ

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Domestic Electricity and Temperature Correlation

y = 26.12x2 - 994.54x + 11240

R2 = 0.7792

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

10 15 20 25 30 35C

TJ

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Commercial Electricity and Temperature Correlation

y = 209.24x + 2465.2

R2 = 0.8405

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0C

TJ

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Domestic Electricity consumption

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

10 15 20 25 30 35

Average temperature (oC)

Ele

ctri

city

con

sum

ptio

n (T

J)

Second order of polynomial Fitting

Commercial Electricity consumption

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

10 15 20 25 30 35

Averaged Temperature (oC)

Ele

ctri

city

co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

TJ)

Linear Fitting

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Averaged Temperature (oC)

1990 1996 2002 Trendline (1990) Trendline (1996) Trendline (2002)

Linear Fitting

Same pattern for different years

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Year Constant Coeff. of T R2 Sign. F

1990 833.41(0.00)

114.00(0.00)

0.937 0.000

1996 1607.3(0.00)

161.70(0.00)

0.902 0.000

2002 1941.1(0.00)

223.04(0.00)

0.860 0.000

• Commercial: statistically significance.• The best fitted curve: Linear

Correlation:Commercial electricity

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When Temperature increase by 1C2003 Temp C Commercial

electricity TJT+1 C TJ at T+1

Jan 16.1 6142 17.1 6041

Feb 18.5 5795 19.5 6545

March 19.0 6212 20.0 6650

April 23.9 6674 24.9 7675

May 26.9 7749 27.9 8303

June 27.7 7932 28.7 8470

July 29.6 8833 30.6 8868

Aug 28.8 8838 29.8 8701

Sep 27.6 8440 28.6 8449

Oct 25.3 8312 26.3 7968

Nov 22.2 7231 23.2 7319

Dec 17.6 6678 18.6 6357

Total 88836 91346

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Impact on electricity consumption

Average % change in electricity demand

Sectors T+1 T+2 T+3

Domestic 9.2% 20.2% 33.1%

Commercial 3.0% 6.1% 9.1%

Industrial 2.4% 4.8% 7.2%

Total 4.5% 9.6% 15.2%

• The averaged percentage changed is calculated from 15 years (1990-2004)

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Impact due to Global Warming (electricity consumptions)

Domestic Commercial Industrial

Total Electricity consumption in 2002

33,394 TJ 87,606 TJ 16,112 TJ

Temperature increased by

1oC HK$0.85 b HK$0.74 b HK$0.11 bHK$1.70

billion

2oC HK$1.88 b HK$1.47 b HK$0.22 b HK$3.59 b

3oC HK$3.07 b HK$2.24 b HK$0.33 b HK$5.64 b

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Impact on Energy Consumption in Hong Kong

• For 1oC, 2ºC and 3ºC temperature rise, the economic impact on total electricity consumptions were HK$1.7 billion, HK$3.59 billion and HK$5.64 billion respectively (based on year 2002 statistics).

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Impact of Global Warming on Dengue Fever and Malaria

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Dengue Fever • Vector born disease - mosquito.• Transmission potential expressed in Epidemic potential

EP

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Epidemic Potential

• p = survival probability of mosquito• a = biting frequency• n = incubation period• k1 is a constant

• all 3 parameters p, a and n depend on ambient temperature

)log(1

2

pk

paEP

n

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EP a

p

n

Martens, Climatic change, 35, 1997

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Epidemic Potential

• EP is a function of ambient temperature EP(T)• When ambient temperature increase by 1C• EP(T + 1C) can be computed

• change of EP can be expressed as:EP = EP(T + 1) – EP(T)

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EP % of Dengue Fever when temperature increase

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Impact of Global Warming on Dengue Fever

Temperature Increase Increase of Epidemic Potential

1oC 1.2% (0%-3.4%)

2oC 2.6% (0.2%-6.0%)

3oC 4.1% (0.39%-10.8%)

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EP % of Malaria when temperature increase

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25

20

15

10

5

0

Cha

nge

in E

P o

f Mal

aria

(%

)

J anuary March May J uly September NovemberMonth

T+1 T+2 T+3

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Impact of Global Warming on Malaria

Temperature Increase Increase of Epidemic Potential

1oC 6.7% (0-11.52)

2oC 13.0% (0-22.90)

3oC 18.7% (0.004-33.96)

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Conclusion

• Temperature rise is also observed in Hong Kong.

• 1C rise is associated with 4.5% increase in total energy use.

• 1C rise is associated with 1.2% / 6.7% increase in Dengue Fever / Malaria respectively.

• It is confirmed that Hong Kong will be affected by global warming.

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End of presentation

Questions