Transcript

IDMP/DMCSEEFOLLOW-UP TOPICS From ideas to proposal

4th WorkshopIntegrated Drought Management

Programme in Central and Eastern EuropeBucharest, Romania, April 19-22, 2015

dr. Andreja Sušnik

Meteorological OfficeDrought management center for SEE [email protected]

IDMP follow-up & joint efforts with DMCSEE

Widden the pool

Main topics

Discussion and ideas

1st round of discussion

DMCSEE course of activities2013-2015

Widden the pool4th DMCSEE International Steering Committee meeting and 3rd Global Water Partnership IDMP-CEE workshop,

Hungary, Budapest, 2 – 4 October 2014

Document (project topics) launched by GWP & DMCSEE –February 2015 (deadline for comments, suggestions until31st March 2015).

o IDMP GWP CEE partners & DMCSEE steering committee(including ad hoc working group) were invited to participate;

o Project consultant funded by GWP;

o Content: results of IDMP CEE with the goal to increase thecapacity of CEE to adapt to climatic variability byenhancing resilience to drought;

o Outcomes of DMCSEE projects & operational work.

4 major thematic areas were proposed:

o DROUGHT MONITORING

o UPGRADING DROUGHT RISK ASSESSMENT (DROUGHT RISK ATLAS FOR CEE/SEE)

o DROUGHT COST ASSESSMENT

o DROUGHT MANAGEMENT

DISSEMINATION

Project topics/ideas

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3rd PRG comments & suggestions:

o IDMP CEE Activities: Lot of work is half-way, but very valuable and can easily be lost. Follow-up is urgently required.

o Development pro-active Drought Management Plan in an integrated land and water management framework, incl. WFD RBMPs

o Thinking in a two temporal scales modes- Operational mode (ongoing (multiple-year) drought, next

year drought)- Strategic mode (far future drought, prepared for global

change).o Corner stones activities (10 steps of drought DMP)

o How to write winning proposal? (again steps), consortium, core group/coordinator, guidelines…

IDMP wrap up for follow-up

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Let‘s check our draft concept!

IDMP follow-up & joint efforts with DMCSEE

Widden the pool

Main topics

Discussion and ideas

1st round of discussion

Description:o Development of products for improved drought monitoring end early warning

system (operational mode?) in CEE and SEE – connection to DMCSEE and EDO platforms. All types of drought monitoring!

o Focus on REMOTE SENSING (Eumetsat – Land monitoring services,

Copernicus, higher spatial/temporal resolution).o IDMP CEE: demonstration project 5.5 (agricultural drought) & follow up ideas

Implementation in follow-up project:o State-of-the-art analysis (CEE /SEE RS monitoring, case studies).

o Promote new RS products (experimental fields/verification).

o Analysis of existing RS methodologies in the region (case studies).

o Combining various approaches (RS, field measurements, crop simulationmodels) to estimate vegetation drought status.

o Recommendations for operational use of RS in drought monitoring in the region.

Thematic area 1: Drought

monitoring („working title“)

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Situation of Combined Drought Indicator in Europe - 3rd ten-day period of March 2015

EDO key points/next steps

o EDO is implemented as a multi-scale distributed system based on interoperable map servers.

o Core indicators are implemented at all scales. They are complemented by regionally relevant indicators.

o Continuous stakeholder involvement ensures both sound results and the acceptance of the system.

EDO next Steps:

o Increase the number of indicators at European level.

o Enlarge the number of interoperable observatories.

o Improve medium to long-range forecasting

o Hazard & risk analysis (incl. CC scenarios)

Description:o Civil Protection Mechanism, EC decision (No. 1313/2013/EU) requires from

the Member States (in Article 6) to prepare RISK ASSESSMENTS on

national and sub national levels ( by the end of 2015); update every three years.

o Obligation of each government to prepare the disaster risk assessment. List of disasters are left to decision of the member states (next reporting cycle – end of 2018).

Implementation in follow-up project (outcomes):o State-of–the-art analysis. o Promotion of the same approach - drought risk assessment according to ECs

Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management (3 steps approach: risk identification - risk analysis – risk evaluation).

o Cooperation with “Civil protection” - responsible for preparation of the “risk assessment plans” in countries.

Thematic area 2: Upgrading

drought risk assessment

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Regional multisectoral drought impacts

In past decades the drought-related damages in the region of South-Eastern Europe (SEE) havehad large impact on the economy and welfare, mainly reflected in destroyed crops anddevastaded farmland, disturbed water-supply, hydroenergy, transport, ….

Vir: Tuzla – problemi sa vodoopskrbo. Sutra, 2011

Last DMCSEE projectsmainly focused on agriculture, limited in forestry.

Description:

o Developing Drought Risk Atlas for SEE and CEE.

o While this process can take up to 3 years (example from USA) it is envisaged to first choose “pilot areas” where foundations for such an atlas will be developed.

o Drought Risk Atlas as a web-based tool that provides visualizations of historic drought data for specific locations.

Implementation in the follow-up project (outcomes):o Selection of a pilot areas.o Selections of drought indices.o Climate change projections.

Thematic area 2.1: Drought risk

atlas for CEE/SEE

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Including climate changeprojections

(EEA, 2012)

Mean relative changes in water-limited crop yield simulated by

the ClimateCrop model for the 2050s compared with

1961–1990 for 12 different climate models projections under the A1B emission scenario.

Description:

o Classification of the costs related to droughts; fixed, direct and indirect, non-market.

o Comparison in different pilot areas, development of commonmethodology.

o Cost of mitigation and climate change adaptation costs.

Implementation in the follow-up project (outcomes):o Methodology for assessment of the drought costs will be developed (or

test already developed methodology – CONHAZ project).o Innovative financial instruments for drought risk management (insurance) o Few pilot areas within partners’ countries will be selected where

methodology will be tested. o Cooperation with “economists”.o Common platform for financial instruments.

Thematic area 3: Drought cost

assesment

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How to manage water suficit/deficit?

Description:o Some of the information about the current status for CEE countries can be

taken for example from the two IDMP CEE outputs – Review of the current status (act. 1.2) and the Guidelines for preparation of the Drought Management Plan according to the WFD (act. 2.1)

Implementation in the follow-up project:o Proposed scheme would be adjusted for the region CEE&SEE.o Partners within the project/activity will update the scheme according to their

current status.o Policy recommendations for improvement of the current drought

management within each country will be prepared and presented to the decision-makers (on a regional and national level).

Thematic area 4: Drought

management

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Where to include droughtmanagement?

o The integrated water resources management is advocated in EU WFD, and number of policies however the implementation of that approach is missing;

o to propose management options (decision support for suppliers and authorities).

…based on identified weaknesses

Guidelines for DMPo To launch the initiatives focused on harmonization of methods used

for development of the main elements of DMP:o assessment of historical drought events,o drought indicator system in connection with drought

monitoring,o thresholds for classification of drought stages,o early warning system.

o To develop guidelines for the weakest elements of planning process:o risk assessment (single and multiply risks assessment)o climate change assessment

o To initiate demonstration projects focused on quantitative water management issues (e.g. e-flows, water accounts)

http://www.droughtmanagement.info/

Activity 7.1: Developing a Compendium of good practices

10 Countries that form GWP Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) – 7 steps???

Description:

o New approaches how to get to the end users; how to transfer the knowledge, experiences, products not only to research institutes, ministries, etc. but to the stakeholders which can use the products (farmers, insurance companies, water managers, public authorities, …).

o From experiences in IDMP CEE - still a lot to do also in terms of raising awareness about drought conditions in the region (IDMP Helpdesk)

Implementation in the follow-up project:o Raising awareness campaigns (involving national TVs, radios, social media)o Journalist workshopo Decision makers workshop (WMO, FAO?)o Specialized seminars for end users (e.g. farmers), open dayso Organize a field visit to an already working projecto Social media campaigno Toolbox for children

Thematic area (1-4):

Dissemination – end users

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Disseminationplatforms

http://www.gwp.org/en/GWP-CEE/IDMPCEE/

www.dmcsee.org

Hot spot - short summary, short insight of possible circumstances of drought at the time of issue.

Additional and auxiliary information (such as methodology used, more detailed information on water balance or temperature situation)

Report on impacts (more aboutagricultural drought impacts is missing!)

Outlook

Drought Bulletin for SE Europe (missionof DMCSEE adhocgroup)

Instructions for better drought management and drought policy

IDMP follow-up & joint efforts with DMCSEE

Widden the pool

Main topics

Discussion and ideas (work in groups)

1st round of discussion

Partners

proposals

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1. Monitoring : Early drought warning in Europe/SEE (drought & floods)

o active countries participation in existing platforms (global, regional – EDO, DMCSEE), exchange information inside/outside the countries;

o making best use of existing structures and water management instruments(River Basin and Flood Risk Management Plans, Drought and water scarcity)

o further research requirements – e.g. remote sensing, drought forecast...

2. Drought risk assessment

2.1 Drought Atlas (SE Europe)!!

3. Drought costs

o Economic costs of drought /adaptation

o Financial instruments.

Ideas for discussion – working in

4 groups

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Ideas for discussion4. Drought management as a part of national legislation (national commitments)

o Europe/WFD/EU policy, UNCCD/NAP/RAP, Danube strategy;

o Joint understanding (i.e. on scenarios and related impacts) and shared knowledge base is essential for joint decision making (flood & droughtmanagement synergies);

o Socio-economic developments should be included;

o How to reach political commitment? Support of WMO, UNCCD, FAO,….

Common projects/calls

o GWP/IDMP, EUMETSAT, Danube, ARIMNET, Interreg, Horizon 2020, LIFE+;

o secondment of staff (WMO support),

o training schools (G-WADI, DMCSEE).

Public awareness and stakeholders cooperation

o drought news/information sharing/campaigns;

o networks/publications .

From project idea…

Do you have a great project idea based on a demand

from the community and it fits into the thematic areas of

project calls?

35http://www.migration4development.org/docs/planning_and_design_process.jpg

IDMP/CEE follow-upprojectproposal


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