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Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com

Building a Sustainable Energy Future for British Columbia Join us! www.bcsea.org

BCSEA 2013 www.bcsea.org


Our vision is a sustainable future in which all of BC’s

energy is green and renewable.

Oracle Research, March 2015


G-7 Summit, 2015


The G-7 Summit, Germany, 2015 Agreement to full decarbonization by 2100


The Canadian and Japanese governments prevented G-7 consensus to decarbonize by 2050.


“By 2050”

“By 2100”


DENMARK: 100% Renewable Energy by 2050

2°C is the boundary between ‘dangerous’ and ‘very dangerous.’

James Hansen, NASA Chief Climate Scientist

for a 75% chance that the global temperature will not rise by 2°C

The 2015 Global Carbon Budget

493

Gigatonnes of CO2

The 2040

Imperative

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Every year 25 Mt CO2 reduction

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Every year renewable energy

increase

HOW MANY FOSSIL FUEL

JOBS WILL END?

HOW MANY NEW JOBS WILL BE CREATED?


Green Jobs in Canada in the Transition

towards a 100% Renewable Energy Economy

UNPUBLISHED REPORT


Direct Jobs

Induced Jobs

Indirect Jobs

Indirect Job: Making Solar


Induced Job: Spending Solar Earnings

Solar worker

Farmer

$$$

Direct Job: Installing Solar


Direct Jobs

Indirect Jobs

Most of the numbers in this presentation do not

include induced jobs


Canada has 555,000 direct and indirect jobs in fossil fuels


If phased out by 2040: 22,000 jobs disappear each year.

If phased out by 2050: 16,000 jobs disappear each year.

555,000 Direct and Indirect Fossil Fuel Jobs


Where will the new jobs be? 1.  Renewable Electricity 2.  Building Retrofits 3.  Railway Electrification 4.  Cycling 5.  Electric Vehicles 6.  Transit 7.  Farming

If by 2040: Can they create 22,000 new jobs a year? If by 2050: Can they create 16,000 new jobs year?


2040


1,000,000,000

KilowattHours kWh

1,000 Gigawatt

Hours GWh

1 Terawatt

Hour TWh

1,000,000 Megawatt

Hours MWh

=

= =


Electricity Demand in 2014 511 TWh




Renewable Electricity in 2013 330 TWh




Renewable Electricity in 2013 330 TWh

New Renewables Needed by 2040

420 TWh

1977: $77

1997: $7

2015: $0.6

Price of Solar PV per Watt

A hundredfold fall in the price of solar PV

since 1977


Solar: 100 TWh 3,280 MW installed per year

18 Direct and Indirect Jobs per MW

101,000 installation jobs/year + 1,700 rising to 42,000 O&M jobs/year


Wind 150 TWh 1,960 MW installed per year

8.6 Direct and Indirect Jobs per MW

29,000 installation jobs/year + 700 rising to 15,000 O&M jobs/year


Geothermal 170 TWh 8400 MW installed per year

10.7 Direct and Indirect Jobs per MW

15,000 installation jobs/year + 600 rising to 14,000 O&M jobs/year


Installation Operation/Maintenance

Per Year Year 1 Year 25 Solar 101,000 1,700 42,000 Wind 29,000 700 15,000 Geothermal 15,000 600 14,000 TOTAL 145,000 3,000 71,000


Renewable Electricity Total Jobs

Year 1 Year 25 Solar 102,700 142,000 Wind 29,700 44,000 Geothermal 15,600 29,000 TOTAL 148,000 215,000


The Levelized Cost of Power US$/MWh Coal-fired 66-151

Natural gas 61-17

Solar PV Utility scale 60-86

Solar PV Commercial Rooftop 126-177

Solar PV Residential Rooftop 180-265

Wind 37-81

Geothermal 89-142

Conservation 0-50

Source: Lazard, 2014

Source: Lazard, 2014


Lazard, 2014

Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com Building Energy Retrofits


Building Retrofit Jobs 90% of

buildings $

investment per building

$ billion per

year

Jobs per year

Residential 11,250,000 $10,000 $4.5 67,500

C & I 432,000 $50,000 $1.7 25,500

Total 93,000

Total, assuming 90% of buildings 93,000 jobs a year


Cycling Economy Jobs 1% cycling trip share 4,000 jobs 25% cycling trip share 103,000 jobs


Year 1 Year 25 1% Trip Share 160 jobs 4,000 jobs

25% Trip Share 4,000 jobs 103,000 jobs

12.5% Trip Share 2,000 jobs 50,000 jobs


Electric Cars: The $$ spent on electricity stays in Canada

1,000 ! 25,000 new Induced Jobs


Railway Electrification 50,000 kilometres 14,000 jobs a year

100% Electric Buses: No New Jobs

Major Increase in Transit: Thousands of New Jobs

Transit Expansion Jobs Installation

Jobs Operational

Jobs Year 1 28,000 13,000 Year 25 28,000 338,000 Extrapolated for all of urban Canada from the Metro Vancouver Mayors’ Transportation Plan

Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com Farming


"#Nitrogen Fertilizer

All conventional farming depends on nitrogen fertilizers made using natural gas

$

CH4 "#


Organic Farming

32% more jobs


Canada: 305,000 direct jobs in farming 32% increase = 98,000 new jobs

Year 1: 5,000 new jobs

Year 25: 98,000 new jobs


Year 1 By Year 25 Renewables 148,000 215,000 Building Energy Retrofits 93,000 93,000 Cycling 12.5% trip-share 2,000 50,000 Transit Install 28,000 28,000 Transit Operating 13,000 338,000 EVs Induced Jobs 1,000 25,000 Organic Farming 5,000 98,000 TOTAL 290,000 847,000

Fossil Fuel Jobs Lost 22,000 555,000

JOB CREATION SUMMARY

Oracle Research, March 2015


WHAT’S NEEDED?

A MASSIVE POLITICAL COMMITMENT

WE CAN DO IT


Thank you! [email protected]

www.earthfuture.com

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