Download - Global Warming?

GLOBAL WARMING?

BY: Ryan S. Welch

1LT, AR, TXARNG

OUTLINE What is the normal or average Earth

Temperature? Is the Earth Warming? Is there a scientific consensus on

Anthropogenic (man made) Global Warming? Is Carbon Dioxide (CO2) a pollutant? Can anthropogenic CO2 production cause a

“runaway greenhouse gas” affect?

OUTLINE Do warmer temperatures cause more

hurricanes? Do warmer temperatures cause more human

deaths than cooler temperatures? Are the Earth’s icecaps and glaciers melting

causing an accelerated sea level rise which will flood coastal cities and islands?

Are Polar Bears running out of habitat?

What is the normal or average Earth Temperature?

What is the normal or average Earth Temperature? It depends on how far back you go. The 20th century

mean global temperature is 12.9 degrees Celsius. For the US (below) it is slightly higher.


Here is the 1000 year average and we are currently about .5 degrees warmer mostly because the Earth has warmed since the Little Ice Age which dominates this period. But the Earth is not currently as warm (by 1.5 degrees) as it was during the Medieval Warm Period.


Here is the 3000 year average of the Sargasso Sea surface temperature of 23 degrees Celsius. Notice that our current temperature is below the average for this period.

What is the normal or average Earth Temperature? Here is the 11,000 year average of around 15 degrees

Celsius which is 2 degrees warmer than now.

What is the normal or average Earth Temperature? Here is the 450,000 year temperature record with an

average below 6 degrees Celsius. That is 7 degrees cooler, but that includes the four Ice Ages.

What is the normal or average Earth Temperature? Here is the 600 million year temperature record showing

a 22 degree Celsius cap between Glacial periods. Notice that is 9 degrees warmer than it is now.


The Bottom Line: There is no “normal temperature.” The

Earth’s temperature is always changing. In no record of the Earth’s temperature are

there any flat stable periods. For the vast majority of the Earth’s history it

has been significantly warmer than it is now.

Is the Earth Warming?


Satellite data goes back 29 years showing global cooling since a warming spike during 1998.

Is the Earth Warming? The Earth’s cooling is in contrast with the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions of steady warming

Is the Earth Warming? This is the same graph showing US surface temperatures

but the one the NOAA/IPCC uses is “adjusted” upwards.

Is the Earth Warming? The graph on the right is from the IPCC but both

the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warming period have been “smoothed” out to a nearly straight line so it shows only the recent warming.

Is the Earth Warming? The Earth has been cooling significantly since 2002

according to satellite and land based records.


The Bottom Line: No, the Earth’s has been cooling since 1998. Nearly all of the warming that has occurred in

this century is a continuance of the recovery from the Little Ice Age.

Is there a scientific consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming?


Most scientists do not agree with the CO2 global warming premise! In the United States alone more than 31,072 scientists have signed a petition rejecting Anthropogenic Global Warming and the Kyoto global warming agreement (see below) and of these, 9,021 have PhDs, including Dr. Edward Teller.


Dr. Benny Peiser of Liverpool John Moores University UK, conducted a search of peer-reviewed literature on the ISI Web of Science database between 1993 and 2003. He found that out of 1,117 documents using the term “global climate change” only 13 - a mere 1% - explicitly endorse, and fewer than 1/3 implicitly endorsed the “consensus” of Anthropogenic Global Warming.

Is there a scientific consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming? Over 650 dissenting scientists from around the globe

challenged man-made global warming claims made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and former Vice President Al Gore. This is documented in the 231-page U.S. Senate Minority Report.


An analysis released in September 2007 on the IPCC scientific review process by climate data analyst John McLean, revealed that the UN IPCC peer-review process is “an illusion.”

Among the 23 independent reviewers just 4 explicitly endorsed the chapter with its hypothesis that stated “it is very highly likely that greenhouse gas forcing has been the dominant cause of the observed global warming over the

last 50 years."


The Bottom Line: No, there is no consensus on Anthropogenic

Global Warming. There is a vast amount of peer-reviewed scientific

studies which refute and debunk nearly every anthropogenic global warming claim.

Consensus, even if there was such a thing, proves nothing. Science is proved by reproducible experimentations or provable formulas of which there are none for AGW.

Is CO2 a pollutant?

Is CO2 a pollutant?

Carbon Dioxide is a naturally occurring atmospheric trace gas accounting for only 0.04% of atmosphere.

CO2 is an essential part of Respiration and Photosynthesis. That means it is essential to life on earth and not a pollutant.

Nitrogen 78%

Oxygen 21%

Argon 0.9%

Carbon Dioxide 0.04%

Is CO2 a pollutant?

CO2 is not accumulating in the atmosphere as fast as projected.

98% of all CO2 that is produced by human activity is absorbed by plants and the oceans.

Is CO2 a pollutant?

The Earth’s average CO2 level for the last 600 Million years is over 2500 parts per million (ppm).

The Earth’s current CO2 concentration level is only about 385 ppm.

Plant growth shuts down below 200 ppm.

Is CO2 a pollutant? As CO2 levels rise plant

growth increases. The recommended CO2

concentration for greenhouses is between 1000-1300 ppm.

Is CO2 a pollutant? 97% of CO2 in the earth's

atmosphere comes from nature, not from man.

Volcanoes, oceans, swamps, rice paddies, fallen leaves, and even insects and bacteria produce carbon dioxide, as well as methane.

Termites alone emit ten times more CO2 than all the factories and automobiles in the world.

Is CO2 a pollutant? The Bottom Line:

No, CO2 is a naturally occurring trace gas essential for life on Earth.

For most of the last 6 million years of Earth’s history there have been much higher levels of CO2 in the atmosphere and life thrived.

There is a negligible correlation between further increases atmospheric CO2 levels and temperature which are overwhelmed by natural processes and inputs.

Plant growth and thus humanity would benefit from increased levels of atmospheric CO2.

Can anthropogenic (man made) CO2 production cause a “runaway greenhouse gas” effect?

Can anthropogenic (man made) CO2 production cause a “runaway greenhouse gas” effect? Carbon Dioxide has the lowest solar energy absorption of all

the atmospheric greenhouse gasses. CO2 and H2O overlap and cannot both absorb the same energy.


CO2 only accounts for 3.618% of all warming attributed to greenhouse gasses.

Human activities account for only 3% of the atmospheric Carbon Dioxide.


The effect of Carbon Dioxide on temperature is logarithmic and thus climate sensitivity decreases with increasing concentration.

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, increased atmospheric Carbon Dioxide has increased the temperature in the atmosphere by 0.1 degree.


Pre-industrial Carbon Dioxide levels are a near saturation levels for greenhouse effect.

If atmospheric Carbon Dioxide levels reached 1000 ppm would only account for a 0.4 degree increase in temperature.

At the current rate of 2 ppm every year it would take 307 years to achieve 1000 ppm.


In four of five periods since 1860 Carbon Dioxide levels and temperature trends go in opposite directions.

There is no cause and effect between Carbon Dioxide level increase and temperature increase.


Temperature is not well correlated with Anthropogenic CO2 but it is well correlated with Solar Activity.

The Sun affects Global Temperature more than atmospheric CO2.

Can anthropogenic (man made) CO2 production cause a “runaway greenhouse gas” affect?

All climate models assume that relative humidity remains approximately constant with global warming

Data shows a 21% drop of relative humidity at 9 km altitude where the “greenhouse effect” is supposed to happen.


Water vapor is supposed to cause a huge positive feedback to atmospheric warming (hence the basis of the “runaway greenhouse gas” effect).

But water vapor reduces the Optical Depth and instead is a negative feedback to warming.

Water vapor has offset 78% of the greenhouse effect of CO2 change in the last 60 years.

Can anthropogenic (man made) CO2 production cause a “runaway greenhouse gas” effect? This chart from the IPCC shows that the 3% of anthropogenic

CO2 amounts to a total man made contribution of only 11.5 ppm of the total 385 ppm.

98.5% of all CO2 produced is reabsorbed by the oceans. Some studies show that oceans can absorb all the CO2 humans could ever produce and that oceanic warming regulates atmospheric CO2.

The Earth has been cooling significantly since 2002 while CO2 levels have risen.



Since 1998 the lower Troposphere (where the “Greenhouse Effect” is supposed to happen) has also been cooling according to satellite readings (again with CO2 levels rising).


The climate models used by the IPCC do not agree with observations.


In fact there is none of the “greenhouse gas” warming predicted instead there is cooling.


During the Ordovician Period 460 million years ago CO2 concentrations were 4400 ppm while temperatures then were about the same as they are today.

http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Carboniferous_climate.html


The Bottom Line: NO, the climate models used to predict a “runaway

greenhouse gas” effect have been completely discredited.

Human activity only adds 3% to a trace gas (CO2), that is only 0.04% of the atmosphere and that has a minuscule effect on temperatures of which water vapor offsets 78%.

There is no credible empirical data to support Anthropogenic Global Warming.

The Sun is the primary force in global temperatures.

Do warmer temperatures cause more hurricanes?


There are actually fewer hurricanes now compared to the past.

Any increase in major hurricanes is primarily due to Global Cooling which changes the Atlantic Ocean Thermohaline Circulation (THC) otherwise known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).


From 1945-1969 when the globe was cooling there were 80 major hurricanes.

From 1970-1994 when the globe was warming there were only 38 major hurricanes although CO2 levels were 18% higher.


From the early 1930’s through 1965 the earth was primarily cooling so you have a higher number of hurricanes.

From the early 1970’s to 1998 the earth was warming so you have a lower frequency of hurricanes while CO2 levels have risen from 310 ppm to 385 ppm.


Only 7 hurricanes hit the east coast from 1966-2008 (43 years) compared to 24 hurricanes from 1923-1965 (43 years). During this time CO2 levels rose from 310 ppm to 385 ppm.


The Bottom Line: NO, cooling temperatures cause more

hurricanes by affecting the THC/AMO and by ocean/atmosphere temperature differentials.

The rise in CO2 has no relation to any increase in hurricane numbers or strength.

Remember Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Ike have all happened since 2002 when the earth has been cooling .

Do warmer temperatures cause more human deaths than cooler temperatures?

Do warmer temperatures cause more human deaths than cooler temperatures? Based on data from the Compressed Mortality File for

the United States extreme cold causes nearly double the deaths that extreme heat causes.


In fact US weather related deaths have fallen since the 1970s.


Hardiness zones have shifted northward.

30° N- 110 km northward shift 35° N- 200 km northward shift 40° N- 280 km northward shift The improvement in growing

conditions resulting from this northward shift in annual average minimum temperature caused an increase in agricultural productivity.

Do warmer temperatures cause more human deaths than cooler temperatures? Agricultural production in these six states rose 34% from

1990 to 2004.

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Kansas

Minnesota

Georgia

Missouri

Mississippi

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1990 Average 34% increase in agricultural productivity from 1990 to 2004


During Earth’s cold periods much of the land area was covered with either Ice or desert.

In Earth’s warm periods much of the land area is covered with either grassland or forests.


The Bottom Line: No, warm conditions globally cause less

human deaths than cold conditions. Warming Earth temperatures increase food

production and decrease desertification. Warmer Temperatures cause less storm

related human deaths.

Are the Earth’s icecaps and glaciers melting causing an accelerated sea level rise which will flood coastal cities and islands?


Glacial melt began in the 1820s as the Earth came out of the Little Ice Age.

Glacial melt began before Hydrocarbon Use and has not accelerated, instead many Glaciers are now advancing (getting bigger).


This is a partial list of Glaciers that are now growing.

NORWAY: Alfo, Briksdal, Nigards, Enga, Hardangerjakulen, Hanse, and Jostefonn Glaciers

CANADA: Helm and Place Glaciers FRANCE: Mt. Blanc Glacier ECUADOR: Antizana 15 Alpha Glacier SWITZERLAND: Silvretta Glacier KIRGHIZTAN: Abramov Glacier RUSSIA: Maali Glacier GREENLAND: Icecap Thickening NEW ZELAND: All 48 Glaciers ARGENTINA: Perito Moreno Glacier CHILE: Pio XI Glacier UNITED STATES: St. Helens, Rainier, Shuksan,

Shasta, Glacier Park, McKinley, Hubbard, Nisqually, Tsaa, and Colorado’s Rocky Mountain Park Glaciers (over 100).


Global Sea Ice Extent is well within the historic rage.

The current rise of sea levels (3.2 cm every 10 years) has recently slowed dramatically which coincides with global cooling.


The Tsaa Glacier in Alaska has grown 1/3 of a mile in two years and is still growing.

These are pictures of the Tsaa Glacier in Icy Bay, Alaska in July 2005 (top)and June 2007 (bottom).


The Greenland’s Icecap of is actually growing in total mass.

The averaged increase is about 5.4 cm/year.


The studied 72% (the rest cannot be measured by satellites) of the Antarctic Icecap is gaining mass at the average rate of 27-29 Gigatons per year.

This alone is enough to reduce sea level rise by 0.08 mm per year.


The Bottom Line: NO, most of the world’s glaciers are now

growing including the Icecaps on Greenland and Antarctica.

Sea level rise is currently only 3.2 cm every 10 years, most of that is due to thermal expansion, not from melting Ice and it has recently slowed.


Studies forecasting long term decline in Polar Bear populations were based on substantial sea ice reductions which are not happening.

The audited forecasts of Polar Bear populations found that the Amstrup et al. applied only 15% of relevant forecasting principals while Hinter et al applied only 10%. Also 46% of the principals were clearly contravened and another 23% were apparently contravened. As a consequence their forecasts are unscientific and of no consequence.


Polar Bears are aquatic mammals and are capable of swimming for over 60 miles.

Polar Bears adjust their range and feeding habits to the changes in climate just as they have done for over 130,000 years.

Today there are over 25 thousand polar bears, compared to 8–10 thousand 40 years ago and only 5,000 in 1940 (due to hunting).

Eleven of the 13 polar bear groups in Canada today are stable or increasing. The two that are decreasing are in an area where the climate has gotten colder!



Polar bears as a species have existed for over 130 thousand years. They have survived many periods of much warmer temperatures, some lasting thousands of years.

They survived the Medieval Warm Period a thousand years ago, when the Vikings settled both Iceland and Greenland and Greenland was even warm enough to support agriculture (it is too cold now).


Six thousand years ago the earth's climate was much warmer than now, and the polar bears survived. Ten thousand years ago the earth's climate was a whopping six degrees C (11 degrees F) warmer than now, and the bears survived.

A Canadian polar bear expert, Mitch Taylor, says, "They are not going extinct, or even appear to be affected."

Are Polar Bears running out of habitat? The Bottom Line:

No, Polar Bears are adaptable and thriving. The Northern sea ice area shows no significant

decrease with satellite monitoring . The Earth is no longer warming, and even if it was

warming, the growing Polar Bear population would survive just as it has all other warming periods.

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