Download - Friday Update 12 March 2010

8/14/2019 Friday Update 12 March 2010

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Baidu (BIDU) Daily Linear Scale

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

( I ) ( II )

( III )

( IV )

- I -

- II -

- III -( V )

- IV -

- V -

Baidu seems to be going into blow off mode. Our target of 595 is

now less than 10% away, so in the grand scheme of things, were

getting very close to achieving an important Wave objective. Bulls andBears should now be on the lookout for a reversal candlestick. Some

kind of big shooting star top or gravestone doji would seem in order to

finish this kind of move. As a potential short-seller, there is no need to

get in front of this freight train UNTIL it sports such a candlestick.

Powerful Running

Double Combination?


2/9

Baidu (BIDU) Daily Linear Scale


If the Wave -IV- concluded around 406, one possible target for the fifth wave would be 596. Outof interest, Ive also drawn the Elliott Wave channel (dashed blue) that would encompass theimpulse. Although, Im not certain it is appropriate to even attempt an EW channel on a linearchart that covers this much price territory.( I ) ( II )

( III )( IV )

- I -

- II -

- III -( V )

- IV -

- V -

I wonder if we get fractal similarity with a Wave -V- that looks like the

lesser degree Wave (V). If so, we should expect a first extension

impulse that will look like a wedge.

REPRINTED 2/27/2010


3/9

Ford (Daily)

The last several days give the look of congestion that is presaging atleast one more new high. In the medium term, though, this sure does

look like a five wave move that is about to be completed.


(4)

(3)

(2)

(1)

[1]

[2]

[3]

[4]

[5]


4/9


Ford ~ 180 min.

The (1) = (5) target is $13.48 for the wave up. The market should theoretically reverse around thisnumber. A maximum thrust target of 125% of the widest leg of the triangle would also peg theconclusion around $13.48. The triangle Wave (4) appears to have concluded at $11.15, which makesthat level key support for bulls (longs). A reversal pattern into the mid $13s should trigger red warninglights for bulls. A break of $11.15 should be troubling.

alt:b

-2-

(1)

(2)

[1]

[2]

[3]

[4]

(3)

[5]

[.a]

[.b]

[.c]

[a]

[b]

[c]

[d]

[e](4)

[1]

[2]

[3]

[4]

(5)[5]

REPRINTED 3/7/2010


5/9

Not much has changed since the last update. This market mustreverse into the 1154 area according to this wave count. Onenew development is the triangle formation that concluded at 1141.Bulls who want to maintain long positions should now consider1141 short term support, a break of which would signal a deepercorrection.


- X -( Z )c

1044.5

a

(a)

(b)

-w-(c)

1112.3

1086

(c)

-x-

-y-(c)?

S&P 500 (60 min.)

(a)

(b)

(a)[5]

[1]

[2]

[3]

[4](b)

1154

61.8% of -w- from

-w-s conclusion


6/9

With 1140 being taken out, the next and last target for thismodel is 1154. That level would be -w-=-y- and also an(a)=(b) within -y-. This would produce a marginally higherhigh on the S&P 500. One wonders if this is what the marketis going for: a new high that brings in a new wave buyersbefore the actual conclusion?


- X -( Z )c

1044.5

a

(a)

(b)

-w-(c)

1112.3

1086

(c)

-x-

-y-(c)?

S&P 500 (60 min.)

(a)

(b)

(a)[5]

[1]

[2]

[3]

[4]

(b)

1154

61.8% of -w- from

-w-s conclusion

REPRINTED 3/10/2010


7/9

Dollar Index (120 min)

Weve been talking about 79.53 as a critical support area for several weeks now. It seems likeits now going to be vigorously tested as the recent whoosh lower does not look completed. Ifthis is an a=c coming down, the 79.35 is another target, so 79.3579.53 can be viewed as asupport zone. Ive labeled the pattern above as an Head and Shoulders, but this pattern rarelydevelops anymore. In other words, I dont believe it, but will remain open to the possibility.Perhaps we get a neckline break that convinces the armchair technicians to short thismarket, right before we launch higher to complete the d wave? Some technicians mayalready view the situation as a broken neckline.


79.53

KEY SUPPORT

Left Shoulder

HeadHead

Left Shoulder

a?

b?

c?

Neckline?


8/9

Dollar Index (240 min)

Dollar Bulls have had little to fret over the last few weeks. This marketseems to be congesting in a triangle type pattern while key support at79.53 hasnt been sniffed for awhile. It looks like we have another highcoming. However, the next new high could be a bull trap--the price

action on setting a new high will be crucial. Does it just slice through andkeep powering? Or, does it just poke to a new high and then reverse onitself?

-b-

-e-

-a-

76.60

x1

w-c-

-d-

-f-

y

-g-80.68


x2?

-a-

-a-

-b-

-c-

-b-?

79.53

z of d-c-?

I have yet to see a legitimate five wave count for

this move (y-wave) on the blogosphere, so Ill

continue to call it a correction of some kind. If the

diametric labeling makes one queasy, then

consider it a double.

KEY SUPPORT

REPRINTED 3/10/2010


9/9

DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of anykind. This report is technical commentary only. The author isNOT representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/TradingAdvisor of any kind. This merely reflects the authors

interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or may nottrade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positionsopposite of what may by inferred by this report. The informationcontained in this commentary is taken from sources the authorbelieves to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the author as tothe accuracy or completeness thereof and is sent to you forinformation purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and

is not for everyone.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)has said about futures trading: Trading commodity futures andoptions is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX ANDRISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures oroptions contracts, you should consider your financial experience,goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford

to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. Youshould understand commodity futures and options contracts andyour obligations in entering into those contracts. You shouldunderstand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading bythoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker isrequired to give you.

Wave Symbology

"I" or "A" = Grand SupercycleI or A = Supercycle

or = Cycle-I- or -A- = Primary(I) or (A) = Intermediate"1 or "a" = Minor1 or a = Minute

-1- or -a- = Minuette

(1) or (a) = Sub-minuette[1] or [a] = Micro[.1] or [.a] = Sub-Micro

Download - Friday Update 12 March 2010

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