US Airfare Trend Report

Week of February 2, 2015

Flights departing February 7, 2015 – March 3, 2015 Observation period: 7 days ending January 31, 2015

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Welcome back to FLYR’s US Airfare Trend Report. Hard to believe that we’re already over a month into 2015! FLYR is a data science company that constructs technologies to predict and mitigate future airfare volatility. Our goal is to develop tools that are able to neutralize uncertainty in travel planning. In the (near) future, we want such tools to be as ubiquitous and easy to use as a weather forecast. Our open airfare prediction beta is currently available at http://www.getFLYR.com. In studying the frequent changes in airfares, we’re constantly gathering and analyzing a huge body of fare information. From this raw input, our team of data scientists and researchers collect and curate a number of key points to present in this report on a periodic basis — we hope it is of interest to travelers and industry observers alike. We welcome your comments and questions, as well as ideas and suggestions for future reports. Steady Travels, FLYR Research

Flights departing February 7, 2015 – March 3, 2015 Observation period: 7 days ending January 31, 2015

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About this data We observed the cohort of non-stop US domestic airfares departing February 7, 2015 to March 14, 2015, or roughly on a one-week to six-weeks forward basis. These fares were observed over a seven-day period ending January 31, 2015. Most commercial carriers in the US are represented.

Notes: Following last week’s larger than usual fare hikes, it appears that JetBlue and Virgin America’s fares have moderated somewhat, with a larger proportion of fares having dropped in price entering the departure window. That having been said, Frontier stands out in continuing more aggressive fare hike adjustments.

Notes: While 44% of Virgin flights were priced downward, it’s still worth mentioning that 31% of their flights went up in price, leaving only one-quarter of flights unchanged in fare and making Virgin the most volatile airline by this measure. The median fare hike for Virgin tickets? $50.

Flights departing February 7, 2015 – March 3, 2015 Observation period: 7 days ending January 31, 2015

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Notes: Some pretty far-reaching changes to note for those flying out of a couple large cities. This is primarily due to some of the fare sale campaigns you may have seen during the current low season for flying. No such luck for those vying with UPS to fly out of Louisville, however. Pretty much every flight got priced up, at a median of $37.

Flights departing February 7, 2015 – March 3, 2015 Observation period: 7 days ending January 31, 2015

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Notes: Not surprisingly, we see some similar trends among destinations. MDW, HOU, BWI, JFK, and PHX are seeing fairly uniform $20 drops, suggesting the presence of systematic fare management by certain carriers.

Flights departing February 7, 2015 – March 3, 2015 Observation period: 7 days ending January 31, 2015

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Notes: Nearly all flights seen here are representative of outlier fare changes at each airport. The exceptions to this are Jacksonville for fare hikes and Reno for fare drops, where the median represented 22% and 26% of fare changes, respectively.

Flights departing February 7, 2015 – March 3, 2015 Observation period: 7 days ending January 31, 2015

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Notes: Our new Whopper of the Week is a dramatic $647 price drop on one lonely flight to Charleston. Don’t hold your breath for more, as essentially all flights to/from Charleston were unchanged this week.

Flights departing February 7, 2015 – March 3, 2015 Observation period: 7 days ending January 31, 2015

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Trends Among 25 Major Airport Routes (by tracked non-stop volume)

Notes: This week, we are seeing some surprisingly uniform re-pricings both upward and downward. None more so than the $20 median drop on the ATL/PHL route. You see straight-$20 hikes and drops across a number of other routes. These systematic re-pricings are likely due to a combination of low-season fare management and price matching policies between different carriers.

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© 2014-2015 FLYR Inc. All Rights Reserved. All data, charts, and commentary are provided for informational purposes only. Permission to reproduce the contents contained herein must be obtained with prior consent of FLYR Inc. For reproduction/distribution authorizations or other media requests, please contact:

Andrew Jing FLYR Inc. andrew@getflyr.com 89 De Boom St., San Francisco, CA 94080