Transcript
Page 1: Emerging Markets Flexible Management - ViewOnwebcast.viewontv.com/upload/docs/comgest/EM_FLEX_2014Seminar_… · Emerging Markets Flexible Management ... Comgest / Bloomberg,

27.11.2014 Pavillon Cambon, Paris

For Professional Investors only

Emerging Markets Flexible Management Alexandre Narboni

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MAGELLAN Performance* (net, in EUR)

Cumulative performance since inception (%)

Rolling performance (%)

*Net performance in EUR as of 31/10/2014

Source: FactSet/Comgest. *Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are used for comparison of past performance only. Performance calculation based on NAV to NAV variation expressed in euros. Fund volatility is calculated using

weekly performance data. The index used for comparative purposes changed from MSCI Emerging Markets price to MSCI Emerging Markets dividends reinvested from 01/01/2006. Comgest S.A. assumed full management of the fund on 31/12/1994 and

'performance since inception' is as of this date.© 2014 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Ratings and awards mentioned in this document can change at any time and do not constitute a buy recommendation.

QTD YTD 1 Year 3 Years

annualised

5 Years

annualised

10 Years

annualised

Inception

annualised

Portfolio 5.59 17.77 17.21 10.06 9.15 11.64 9.06

Index 2.01 13.98 9.21 6.99 8.11 10.38 4.72

2

Dec

1994

Dec

1999

Dec

2004

Dec

2009

100

200

300

400

500

% change

Fund MSCI EM - NR

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MAGELLAN VS. MSCI EM: HISTORICAL DRAWDOWNS

Magellan & MSCI Emerging Markets: worst drawdowns (1994 – 2013)

-33%

-60% -58%

-66%

-38%

-24%

-61%

-42%

-49%

-25%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

1995 1998 2001 2008 2011

MSCI EM

Magellan

09/03/1995 10/09/1998 21/09/2001 27/10/2008 04/10/2011

Comgest’s quality growth expertise in the emerging markets

with reduced volatility and drawdowns Source: Comgest / Bloomberg, Data is EUR

Simulated performances are not a reliable indicator of present or future performance. Indices are used for illustrative purposes only.

Trough of

the MSCI EM

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OUR APPROACH TO FLEXIBLE MANAGEMENT

What do other flexible funds typically do? Why we are different

Use of alternative asset classes: bonds,

precious metals, short-selling

Use of options to hedge downside risk

Discretionary and therefore

opaque risk-on / risk-off strategy

Our expertise:

invest in quality growth companies

Options are expensive when we need them!

Our research on companies must be

the least affected by short-term noise

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COMGEST’S GEM FLEX CONCEPT

A flexible

emerging markets

equity fund

Systemic equity market risk

hedging, using solely

equity index futures

Net exposure to equity

after hedging: 20% to

100%

Strict focus on

quality growth

companies

Systematic hedging level

strategy, indexed on

emerging markets volatility

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EM Equity market

FX

Alpha

RISK DIVERSIFICATION DOES NOT ALWAYS MEAN RISK REDUCTION

HEDGING Balanced Funds

Diversification to other risks

Comgest GEM Flex

Dynamic equity exposure

Active management

of EM equity risk

3 sources of risk EM

Equity market

FX

Alpha

Equities Cash / Cash equivalents

Precious metals /

Commodities

Bonds

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EMERGING MARKETS: BONDS DO NOT ALWAYS HEDGE EQUITIES

2013 Emerging Markets Equities vs. EM Sovereign Bonds

Source: Bloomberg, 02/10/2013

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are used for comparison of past performance only.

80

85

90

95

100

105

Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13

Bloomberg Emerging Sovereign Bond Index (USD) MSCI Emerging Markets (USD)

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Hedging approach

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THE BIG PICTURE

Step 1 Statistical calculation of the proxy based

on portfolio of stocks

Step 2 Systematic calculation of hedging level based

on market volatility

Two steps run

on a daily basis

EQUITY

PORTFOLIO

ACTUAL HEDGE

NET PORTFOLIO

50%

0

PROXY

=

HEDGING

PORTFOLIO

EMERGING MARKETS

QUALITY GROWTH

PORTFOLIO

BASKET OF INDICES MOST

CORRELATED TO THE

EQUITY PORTFOLIO

NET EQUITY

EXPOSURE:

20% TO 100% OF NAV CASH

PORTION OF PROXY

ACTUALLY SOLD

WITH FUTURES

100%

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Euro Stoxx 1%

Kospi (Korea) 2%

Top 40 (South Africa) 3%

FTSE (UK) 3%

MexDer (Mexico)

9%

Nifty (India) 10%

S&P 500 11%

MSCI Taiwan 12%

Hang Seng 19%

MSCI Emerging Markets

30%

PROXY COMPOSITION: Comgest Growth Emerging Markets Flex

Daily rebalancing based on the portfolio holdings’ correlations with indices

Majority of emerging market indices Date: 31/10/2014

Source: Comgest

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CALCULATING THE HEDGING LEVEL

Equity Exposure* in % of NAV

*Net of hedge and cash equity exposure.

Source: Comgest

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

VEM proprietary indicator

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HEDGING LEVEL INDEXED TO VOLATILITY

Traditional Emerging

Market volatility index

Standard deviation of past

MSCI Emerging Markets returns Average absolute returns

Traditional volatility is typically too slow to respond to change

Proprietary EM dynamic

volatility indicator (VEM)

Weighted average of

absolute variations

More weight on

recent observations

More weight on

negative returns

The solution:

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ESTIMATING EMERGING MARKETS VOLATILITY Proprietary Estimate: as reactive as VIX but less noisy

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Historical EM Volatility Proprietary EM Volatility MSCI Emerging Markets

The proprietary EM volatility indicator

is expected to be more reactive to market stress Data between 01/01/2013 and 30/09/2013

Source: Comgest

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Ju

l-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Oct-

12

No

v-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Feb

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Ap

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Au

g-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Oct-

13

No

v-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ja

n-1

4

Feb

-14

Ma

r-1

4

Ap

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Oct-

14

Average

25%

HEDGING LEVEL SINCE LAUNCH Comgest Growth Emerging Markets Flex

Source: Quantam

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COMGEST GROWTH EMERGING MARKETS FLEX Performance since inception in EUR*

CGEM FLEX

EUR I Acc

MSCI EM net 60%

+CASH (EUR) 40%

Annualised Performance 8.5 3.4

Annualised Volatility 11.7 8.4

Since inception

(11/07/2012, in %) MSCI EM - NR

5.3

13.9

Magellan C

9.9

13.4

Outperformance

86% of Magellan’s performance captured in bull market

Annualised volatility reduced by 12.7% compared to Magellan

*Net performance data as at 31/10/2014. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are used for comparison of past performance only. Volatility is calculated using weekly performance data. Source : Factset / Comgest.

Magellan outperformance

(stock picking)

Moderate average

hedging level

EM currencies vs. EUR

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SOLID PROTECTION DURING THE LAST MARKET CORRECTION

16

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

95

97

99

101

103

105

107

109

111

1-Aug 9-Aug 17-Aug 25-Aug 2-Sep 10-Sep 18-Sep 26-Sep 4-Oct 12-Oct 20-Oct

CGEM Flex I (left scale) MSCI Emerging Markets (left scale) Hedging Level (Right scale)

Net performance data as at 22/10/2014. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are used for comparison of past performance only. Source : Factset / Comgest.

-5.3%

-10.3%

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COMGEST GROWTH EM FLEX CHARACTERISTICS

UCITS IV compliant fund launched on 11/07/2012

AUM as at 31/10/2014: EUR 94.5m

Benchmark: 60% MSCI Emerging Markets NR (Eur) + 40% Cash (EUR)

2 available share classes:

EUR I Acc Class

EUR R Acc Class

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CONCLUSION

Investing in quality growth companies within the emerging market universe...

An experienced and diverse investment team

20-year track record, 9.1% compound annual performance*

A portfolio with equity holdings in-line with our flagship Global Emerging Markets funds

... while reducing volatility

Systematic, transparent and simple hedging method using only equity index futures

Equity market exposure hedged between 0 and 80%

Hedging basket of futures revised daily based on portfolio holdings and market stress

*Data as of end October 2014. Comgest S.A. assumed full management of Magellan C on 31/12/1994. Magellan C was use during the backtesting phase.

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Appendices

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COMGEST GROWTH EMERGING MARKETS FLEX EUR R ACC Performance since inception* (net, in EUR)

CGEM FLEX

EUR R Acc

MSCI EM net 60%

+CASH (EUR) 40%

Annualised Performance 6.4 3.1

Annualised Volatility 10.3 8.8

Since inception

(25/09/2012, in %) MSCI EM - NR

4.8

14.6

Magellan C

9.2

12.0

*Performance data as at 31/10/2014. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are used for comparison of past performance only. Volatility is calculated using weekly performance data. Source : Factset / Comgest.

Comgest Growth Emerging Markets Flex EUR R Acc

MSCI EM (net) 60% + Cash (Eur) 40%

MSCI Emerging Markets – Net Return

20

Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-1480

90

100

110

120

COMGEST GROWTH EMERGING MARKETS FLEX EUR R ACCMSCI EM (NET) 60% + CASH (EUR) 40 %MSCI EMF (Emerging Markets ) - Net Return

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OUR HEDGING INSTRUMENTS: LISTED INDEX FUTURES

Fixed universe of index futures

Index Zone Stock Exchange

Location Currency

S&P 500 USA Chicago USD

DJ EURO STOXX 50 Europe Berlin EUR

HANG SENG Hong Kong/China Hong Kong HKD

KOSPI Korea Seoul KRW

IPC Mexico Mexico City MXN

TAIWAN MSCI Taiwan Singapour SGD

NIFTY India Singapour SGD

TOP 40 South Africa Johannesburg ZAR

FTSE 100 UK London GBP

MSCI EMERGING MARKETS Emerging markets New York USD

No OTC Futures

Settlement in cash

Liquid instruments

Prices available on Bloomberg

Large geographical coverage

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COMGEST: KEY CONTACTS – EQUITY PMs Vincent Strauss has over 35 years’ investment experience, 20 of which were gained with Comgest. He graduated from the HEC business

school (Lausanne) and holds a PhD in Economics. He started his career at Crédit Commercial de France and was responsible for the firm's

institutional operations. In 1982, he joined Banque Indosuez (Paris) as a portfolio manager supervising the Pacific Basin markets. He was a

Director at Batif before moving on to Multifinance International. Vincent joined Comgest in 1994 and is today Chairman of Comgest Global

Investors (the Comgest Group’s holding entity) and CEO and CIO of the Comgest Group. Vincent is one of the lead portfolio managers of

Comgest’s Global Emerging Markets strategies and a Portfolio Manager within the firm’s Global Equity strategy.

Wojciech Stanislawski graduated from the Panthéon-Assas University (Paris) with a joint Master’s Degree in Business and Financial

Management. Following several internships with financial institutions in Poland, he joined Comgest’s investment team in 1999. Wojciech

has worked in Comgest’s Global Emerging Markets team for the past 15 years, being named a Portfolio Manager of the flagship GEM

“Magellan” fund in 2000. Wojciech is responsible for the daily supervision and management of the fund managers and analysts within the

GEM equity investment team and he is one of the lead Portfolio Managers of Comgest’s GEM, GEM Promising Companies, Latin American

and Indian equity strategies.

Emil Wolter graduated from the University of London with a BSc in Financial Economics. He has worked as a financial analyst since 1995

and as an analyst and portfolio manager on Asian and Emerging Markets equities since 1997. Initially an analyst and portfolio manager with

Pictet Asset Management in London, Emil went on to head up the emerging markets franchise at Polar Capital Partners in both London and

Singapore. More recently he was Head of Asian Equity Strategy in Singapore at the securities brokerage units of Royal Bank of Scotland

and Macquarie. Emil joined Comgest in 2012 as Portfolio Manager covering Asian and Global Emerging Market equities.

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COMGEST: KEY CONTACTS – HEDGING STRATEGY

Alexandre Narboni graduated from ENSAE (School of Economics, Statistics and Finance in Paris) and holds a Master’s Degree in Financial

Mathematics from the University of Columbia. He began his career in loan securitisation with Société Générale in New York before moving on to

HSBC where he was responsible for the credit risk of hedge funds. He joined Comgest in 2009 and is a Portfolio Manager specialised in US

equity.

Charles Biderman completed a Masters in Engineering at the Institut National des Télécommunications in France, majoring in Finance and

undertaking part of his studies in Buenos Aires. He joined Comgest’s investment team in 2006 and is a Portfolio Manager in the Emerging

Markets team, specialising in Latin American companies. Charles is a Portfolio Manager of Global Emerging Markets equity portfolios and is the

co-lead Portfolio Manager of the firm’s Latin American equity strategy, having been a key decision maker since the product’s inception in 2009.

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OPERATIONAL CHART

A transparent division of responsibilities

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IMPLEMENTING THE HEDGING METHODOLOGY ON A DAILY BASIS

Comgest’s resources remain focused on fundamental equity research

Quantam brings its sophisticated calculation & trading capabilities:

Best execution of futures through state-of-the-art trading platform (slippage

minimisation, roll management)

Data cleaning, data mining and statistical analysis

Proprietary and adjustable systematic calculation programs

Active in research regarding hedging techniques

Quantam is responsible for calculating the proxy and placing the relevant

futures orders on the different exchanges on behalf of Comgest

Comgest’s Middle Office performs post-trade compliance checks and NAV

reconciliation with the fund Administrator

Equity exposure may be raised at Comgest’s discretion should a strong discrepancy

occur between our views on the market volatility and the hedging strategy’s output

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OUR PARTNER: QUANTAM

Who is Quantam?

Independent Asset Management firm

Proprietary futures trading activities since 2004

6 investment professionals based in Paris and Miami with solid quantitative background

Quantam has developed proprietary software and methods which are able to screen and analyse, on a daily basis, huge tick-by-tick historical databases on all major electronic exchanges

Quantam develops and implements advanced algorithmic techniques in order to continually fine tune and increase the robust nature of its tools

Risk Control

Quantam only operates on regulated and liquid markets

Quantam does not practice OTC activities

Exchange member & co-located at

Registered with

Affiliated with

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IMPORTANT INFORMATION This document has been prepared for professional investors only and may only be used by these investors. This material is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. The contents of this document should not be treated as advice in relation to any potential investment. The securities discussed herein may not be held in the portfolio at the time you receive this presentation. Performance figures are provided net of all fees unless otherwise stated and are calculated on a time-weighted, total return basis. Funds which specialise in a particular region or market sector may entail higher risks than those which hold a very broad spread of investments. Past investment results are not necessarily indicative of future investment results. The value of all investments and the income derived therefrom can decrease as well as increase. This may be partly due to exchange rate fluctuations in investments that have an exposure to currencies other than the base currency of the Fund. Reference to market indices or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only. Reference to an index does not imply that the portfolio will achieve returns, volatility or other results similar to the index. The composition of the index will not reflect the manner in which a portfolio is constructed. The information and any opinions have been obtained from or are based on information from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy can not be guaranteed. No liability is accepted by Comgest in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this document. The information in this document is not comprehensive and is presented for informational purposes only. All opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. Comgest does not provide tax or legal advice to its clients and all investors are strongly urged to consult their own tax or legal advisors concerning any potential investment. Before making any investment decision, investors are advised to check the investment horizon and category of the Fund in relation to any objectives or constraints they may have. Investors must read the latest Fund prospectus and the Key Investor Information Document (“KIID”), available at our offices and on our website www.comgest.com Investors shall undertake to respect the legal, regulatory and deontological measures relative to the fight against money laundering, as well as the texts that govern their application, and if modified investors shall ensure compliance with the applicable texts. This material is in no case an offer for people living in a specific jurisdiction which does not authorize the distribution of the Funds mentioned herein. The investment professionals listed in this document are employed either by Comgest S.A., Comgest Asset Management International Limited, Comgest Far East Limited, Nippon Comgest Inc, Comgest Singapore Pte. Ltd. Comgest S.A. is regulated by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF). Comgest Far East Limited is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Comgest Asset Management International Limited is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Nippon Comgest Inc. is regulated by the Financial Service Agency of Japan (registered with Kanto Local Finance Bureau (No. Kinsho 1696)). Comgest Singapore Pte Ltd, created 18 August 2010, is a Licensed Fund Management Company & Exempt Financial Advisor (for Institutional and Accredited Investors) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

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