Development of global Safety synergies for Space Exploration
regulations
Bridging with Aviation standards
67th IAC, Guadalajara, Mexico 30th September 2016
Aline Decadi, HE Space Operations BV at European Space Agency [email protected]
2016 International Astronautical Congress
2
Global Exploration Roadmap
Mars Exploration scenarios have a common common
international strategy
Global Exploration Roadmap (GER)
è Space Exploration
based on international interest
& collaboration
3
What has changed since Apollo?
Yesterday & today – Earth-dependent
Lift-off Apollo capsule (image Apollo 17 @NASA)
Tomorrow – Proving ground and Earth-independent
Lunar base (@ESA) Lift-off Mars Ascent Vehicle (@NASA)
4
Existing Space Safety Standards
• ISO (International Standards Organization) including the basic space policy standards funded in ISO 14300 :
• Regulations and standards for (un)manned space systems by agencies and
institutions:
è Need for jointly establish safety consensus standards to become recommended references
for national regulations
ISO 14620-1 to -3: Space Systems Safety requirements
ISO 17666: Space Systems Risks Management
ISO 1464-1 to -7: Space Systems in terms of Safety and Compatibility of Materials.
ISO 24113: Space Debris Mitigation requirements
ISO 27875: Re-entry risk management for unmanned spacecraft and Launch vehicle orbital stages
5
Global standardised Safety process for Aviation
SAE Aerospace Recommended Practices ARP4761
• Guideline and method for conducting the safety assessment process
• Standardized process used worldwide • World's most severe civil aviation standard • Enriched by decades of maturation:
è Benefit from the civil airborne process to reach international consensus for space exploration safety standard
60 millions per year (average flight duration
of 2 hours)
Cumulated number of
hours flown for a plane ?
6
Common Safety objective for Aviation and Space Safety Assessment
Critical Functions That may lead to loss
of crew/ mission
Bring the failure probability down to an acceptable level of safety
7
Standardized Safety Assessment process in Aviation
MEANS OF COMPLIANCE Means AC 25.1309 ó AMC 25.1309
METHOD/ ANALYSIS
CRITERIA (QUAN & QUAL)
SAFETY ASSESSMENT PROCESS GUIDELINES AND METHODS (ARP 4761)
AIRCRAFT & SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT PROCESSES (ARP 4754A)
ELECTRONIC HW DEVELOPMENT LIFE-
CYCLE (DO-254) SW DEVELOPMENT LIFE-
CYCLE (DO-178B)
Intended aircraft function
CERTIFICATION SPECIFICATIONS harmonized worldwide Requirements
FAR 25.1309 ó EASA
CS-25.1309
ELEMENTS OF COMPLIANCE/ CERTIFICATION Results
8
Comparison of Safety tools with Space Exploration (e.g. analysis, methodology)
Space procedure (NPR 8705-2B): METHOD: Aviation standard (ARP 4761):
•Hazard Analysis (HA) equivalent
•Functional Hazard Analysis (FHA) •Preliminary System Safety Analysis (PSSA)
•System Safety Analysis (SSA)
•Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) <=> •Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)
•Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) <=>
•Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA)
•Damage Modes and Effects Analysis (DMEA)
equivalent
•Zonal Safety Analysis (ZSA) & Common Cause Analysis (CCA)
•Critical Items Lists (CIL) equivalent •FMEA & Particular Risk Analysis
•Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) equivalent •Particular Risk Analysis
•Simulation modeling <=> •Simulation modeling
•Accident Precursor Analysis (APA) equivalent •Integrated in FHA, PSSA, SSA
9
Comparison of Safety criteria with Space Exploration
• Which criteria to be applied for the implementation of the Space Safety Assessment?
E.g.
vs.
• Several risk mitigation strategies are available to reach the requested level of mission safety.
• Need more maturation to converge on common criteria not ambigous and not open to interpretation.
Probabilistic criteria?
NPR 8705.2B, 2008
1 FT + Proba of LOC
Deterministic criteria?
NPR 8705.2 (no rev), 2003
2 FTs
Management Programmatic Technical
Experience Mission scenario
Mission phases
10
Recommendations to reach international consensus regulating space exploration
• Elaborate requirements without specificities a priori on mission class, or type of vehicle, or purpose of flight, due to the unavailability of sufficient relevant experience & data
• Providing a path towards evolutionary improvements in regulation: Using Standardized process for aircrafts (ARP 4761 and ARP 4754) in terms of method & analysis
• As the human spacecraft base will mature for establishing criteria: • Alternative 1: refinement through maturation process • Alternative 2: increase levels of crew/ mission survival
! Clear need for iterations on a collaboration manner between Agencies and industry to determine how to advance innovative mission concepts, while being compliant to
stringent Certification criteria
11
Presented by: Aline Decadi, HE Space Operations BV
at European Space Agency HQ Paris Daumesnil [email protected]
Thank you for your attention!
Any question ?
67th IAC, Guadalajara, Mexico
