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Page 1: Complexity Thinking

© Jurgen Appelo version 2 management30.com

Complexity Thinking or Systems Thinking ++ ?

“The search for simple –if not simpleminded– solutions to complex problems is a consequence of the inability to deal effectively with complexity.”

– Russell L. Ackoff

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Jurgen Appelo writer, speaker, trainer, entrepreneur... www.jurgenappelo.com

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Get my new book for FREE! m30.me/ss

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story

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What happens when you go to a bar full of systems thinkers and complexity researchers

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Russell L. Ackoff

Ralph Stacey Dave Snowden

Donella H. Meadows

W. Edwards Deming

Peter M. Senge

Peter F. Drucker

Peter Checkland Gerald M. Weinberg

John H. Holland

Michael C. Jackson

John Seddon Max Boisot

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“What exactly is the bar?”

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“Are the people here part of the

bar?”

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“Is the beer part of the bar?”

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“If we drink the beer, is it still part of the bar?”

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“What if my beer and I go outside?”

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“Is the bar a system?”

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“What is the purpose of the

bar?”

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Reductionism

Holism

Complexity Theory

Models

Complexity Thinking

Example

Final words

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We converse about abstractions

Abstractions are imperfect and incomplete.

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It is a form of interaction

The activity of abstracting is basically a form of interaction between people in which they simplify the complexity of their own ordinary, everyday interactions […] in an effort to make meaning of what they are doing […].

– Ralph Stacey Complexity and Organizational Reality

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To make sense of the world

Sense-making is the way that humans choose between multiple possible explanations of sensory input.

– Dave Snowden http://kwork.org/Stars/Snowden/snowden3.html#Simplicity

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reductionism

re·duc·tion·ism noun \ri-ˈdək-shə-ˌni-zəm\

– explanation of complex life-science processes and phenomena in terms of the laws of physics and chemistry

– a procedure or theory that reduces complex data and phenomena to simple terms

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/reductionism

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The bar is... the building, inventory, employees, guests, some interaction, etc...

reductionism

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A problem is that people have become addicted to the successes of reductionism.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reductionism

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“Left-brain” thinking

All system theories were created by engineers and scientists (“left-brainers”).

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Analysis in management

This systems movement […] has come to form the foundation of today’s dominant management discourse, so importing the engineer’s notion of control into understanding human activity.

– Ralph Stacey Complexity and Organizational Reality

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Problem: Dehumanization

Cold numbers in spreadsheets

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Problem: Objectivation

“Designing” human interaction

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Problem: Alienation

Instructions from ivory towers

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Problem: Prediction

“Controlling” the future

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Problem: Attribution

Blaming people for problems

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• Problem: Dehumanization

• Problem: Objectivization

• Problem: Alienation

• Problem: Prediction

• Problem: Attribution

This list of five problems is my abstraction, and my attempt at sense-making!

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Reductionism

Holism

Complexity Theory

Models

Complexity Thinking

Example

Final words

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Revenge for “right-brainers”

Some people have suggested more holistic approaches.

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See the whole system

Living systems have integrity. Their character depends on the whole. The same is true for organizations.

– Peter M. Senge The Fifth Discipline

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Greater than the sum of the parts

The enterprise must be a genuine whole: greater than the sum of its parts, with its output larger than the sum of all inputs.

– Peter F. Drucker Management

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Synthesis, not analysis

Analysis is only one way of thinking; synthesis is another. [...] In analysis, something that we want to understand is first taken apart. In synthesis, that which we want to understand is first identified as part of one or more larger systems.

– Russell L. Ackoff Recreating the Corporation

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But what is the whole

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Problem: Impossible

If everything is connected to everything, what is the “whole”?

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An unquestioned assumption

By formulating a research aim to uncover the fundamental characteristics of systems of various kinds, we were making the unquestioned assumption that the world contained such systems.

– Peter Checkland Systems Thinking, Systems Practice

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Actually, there are no systems

Where to draw a boundary around a system depends on the questions we want to ask.

– Donella H. Meadows Thinking in Systems

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There are perspectives

A system is a way of looking at the world.

– Gerald M. Weinberg Introduction to General Systems Thinking

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Systems depend on context

The boundaries of systems keep shifting, using reductionism and holism.

How much to abstract or extend depends on what you want to understand.

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No radical holism/reductionism

Complexity theory does not embrace the radical holism of systems theory, the notion that everything matters and everything has to be taken into account.

– Steve Phelan The Interaction of Complexity and Management

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Reductionism

Holism

Complexity Theory

Models

Complexity Thinking

Example

Final words

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Brains, bacteria, immune systems, the Internet, countries, gardens, cities, beehives… They’re all complex adaptive systems.

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A team is a complex adaptive system (CAS), because it consists of parts (people) that form a system (team), and the system shows complex behavior while it keeps adapting to a changing environment.

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One perspective

The properties of complex adaptive systems are:

• Aggregation

• Nonlinearity

• Flows

• Diversity

– John H. Holland Hidden Order

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Another perspective

There are six notions in complexity theory:

• Sensitivity to initial conditions (butterfly effect)

• Strange attractors (unpredictability)

• Self-similarity (fractals)

• Self-organization (distributed control)

• The edge of chaos (emergence)

• Fitness landscapes (continuous improvement)

– Michael C. Jackson Systems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers

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And it evolved like this...

– Jeffrey Goldstein Complexity and the Nexus of Leadership

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Or like this...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Complex_systems_organizational_map.jpg

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Or like this...

http://www.flickr.com/photos/jurgenappelo/4948963883/

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Of course, these are all just abstractions...

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Complexity theory itself is complex

Papers are being posted on the Web long before publication and there is rapid movement of what could be called precodified or protocodified knowledge. […] I am not saying whether this is good or bad; I am merely suggesting that this is one of the characteristics affecting the evolution of complexity sciences.

– Max Boisot The Interaction of Complexity and Management

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Complexity theory is about change

Complexity theory is not a cohesive theory. It is not one equation. It is really a collection of ideas about the concept of change in complex adaptive systems […]. It talks about the dynamics of change in a system.

– Irene Sanders The Interaction of Complexity and Management

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People and relationships

We found that this new science leads to a new theory of business that places people and relationships […] into dramatic relief.

– Roger Lewin, Birute Regine The Interaction of Complexity and Management

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And about hype

I think the next century will be the century of complexity.

– Stephen Hawking San Jose Mercury News, 23 January 2000

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And about unification

We can justifiably think of Complexity as a sort of umbrella science – or even the Science of all Sciences.

– Neil Johnson Simply Complexity

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But who wants unification?

Scholars […] have been understandably reluctant to see their pet subject as simply one more example of some broader 'general system'!

– Peter Checkland Systems Thinking, Systems Practice

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No consensus, no unification

Perhaps because the field has attracted researchers from a wide diversity of home disciplines, there is no consensus as to how to define, measure, describe, or interpret "complexity."

– Steve Maguire The Interaction of Complexity and Management

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Complexity theory explains why complex problems need multiple perspectives.

It is successful in explaining its own failure at being one theory!

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But complexity is growing

Accelerating economic and social change in the global economy, the consequent imperative for ever faster innovation, the emergence of global networks of partners, […] the multiplication of media channels, and burgeoning diversity in both the workplace and marketplace.

– Steve Denning Radical Management

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And complicated is not complex

Analysis works in complicated cases (plic in complicated means "fold"), but the interweavings (plex) of the complex do not yield to reductionist analysis or to a concentration on details.

– Michael L. Lissack The Interaction of Complexity and Management

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You can try to simplify a system to make it understandable But you cannot linearize the system to make it predictable

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Complicated vs. Complex is itself is reductionism (and a false dichotomy)!

Some systems can be seen as both complicated and complex.

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This is all great, but how do we use all these ideas about complexity

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The Scientific Method

The traditional approach...

1. Observations

2. Hypotheses

3. Predictions

4. Experiments

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method

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Houston, we have a problem

This makes the standard method of accumulating evidence highly problematic, because it is based on the assumption of repetitive events. Evidence is accumulated by observing repetitions in traditional science but rather different notions of evidence need to be developed for the complexity sciences.

– Ralph Stacey Complexity and Organizational Reality

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Complexity invalidates prediction!

The crucial problem which science faces is its ability to cope with complexity.

– Peter Checkland Systems Thinking, Systems Practice

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Complexity theory predicts that we cannot rely on predictions.

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That doesn’t seem very helpful.

Is there anything else we can do

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Reductionism

Holism

Complexity Theory

Models

Complexity Thinking

Example

Final words

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/hey__paul/6223650676/

What’s this?

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model

mod·el noun \ˈmä-dəl\

– a usually miniature representation of something

– a description or analogy used to help visualize something (as an atom) that cannot be directly observed

– a system of postulates, data, and inferences presented as a mathematical description of an entity or state of affairs

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/model

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We use models for two reasons

Confirmatory models: prediction & control

Exploratory models: insight & understanding

– Steve Phelan The Interaction of Complexity and Management

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We’ll focus on exploratory models

Confirmatory models are impossible to make in complexity theory. But we can use exploratory models to aid in sense-making.

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Making sense of learning

Shu

Ha

Ri

Beginner

Advanced Beginner

Competent

Proficient

Expert

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shuhari http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dreyfus_model_of_skill_acquisition

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Making sense of complexity

Ralph Stacey Dave Snowden

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There’s only 1 criterion for models

Does the model help people to make sense of the world (insight and understanding)?

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Of course, it requires a balance

How detailed (complicated) will you make the model to make it useful?

The usefulness of a model depends on the complexity of the mind and of the environment.

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A complicated model of London

http://www.bestcitymaps.com/citymaps/images/london.jpg

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http://effectiveagiledev.com/AgileTraining/ScrumImplementationWorkshop/tabid/74/Default.aspx

A simple model for projects

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A simple model for managers

– Jurgen Appelo Management 3.0

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A complicated model for managers

– Dan Levinthal The Interaction of Complexity and Management

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Models are never perfect

All models wrong, some are useful. – George Box

Usefulness is context-dependent. It depends on the people and their environment.

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http://www.flickr.com/photos/miguelpdl/4356975474/

What’s this?

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metaphor

met·a·phor noun \ˈme-tə-ˌfor also -fər\

– a figure of speech in which a word or phrase literally denoting one kind of object or idea is used in place of another to suggest a likeness or analogy between them

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/metaphor

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Metaphors in science

• Butterfy Effect

• Edge of Chaos

• Survival of the Fittest

Metaphors are fuzzy but effective models.

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Metaphors in management

• organizations as machines;

• organizations as organisms;

• organizations as brains;

• organizations as flux and transformation;

• organizations as cultures;

• organizations as political systems;

• organizations as psychic prisons;

• organizations as instruments of domination;

• organizations as carnivals.

– Michael C. Jackson Systems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers

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Organizations as machines

Machine images pervade management jargon. We have managers who “run” a company, much the way you would run a machine. We have the “owners” of the company, which is perfectly appropriate terminology for a machine but somewhat problematic when applied to a human community. And of course there are leaders who “drive change.”

– Peter M. Senge The Fifth Discipline

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Danger of metaphors

Reminiscence syndrome

Jumping to conclusions because things look “the same”

– Jack Cowan

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Example: inventory as waste

The metaphor of inventory applied to knowledge work can be useful, but it fails fast.

It leads people to draw conclusions about “waste” that make no sense (to me).

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Useful question: when do they fail?

Metaphors are the weakest of all models.

They fail fast.

Science likes mathematical models.

They fail much later.

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A key point of complexity theory

Multiple weak models can make just as much sense as one strong model. (And it’s certainly better than no models.)

In the end all models fail.

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This point makes it clear you also need other people’s views on complexity thinking.

A single perspective is not enough!

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What’s this?

http://www.flickr.com/photos/adactio/2634586376/

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mathematics

math·e·mat·ics noun \ˌmath-ˈma-tiks, ˌma-thə-\

– the science of numbers and their operations, interrelations, combinations, generalizations, and abstractions and of space configurations and their structure, measurement, transformations, and generalizations

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/mathematics

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Scientific management (Taylorism)

The earliest attempt at applying mathematics to management of organizations.

• Improving efficiency

• Reducing variation

• Increasing output

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_management

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What’s this?

http://www.flickr.com/photos/inacentaurdump/2604198505/

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simulation

sim·u·la·tion noun \ˌsim-yə-ˈlā-shən\

– the imitative representation of the functioning of one system or process by means of the functioning of another

– examination of a problem often not subject to direct experimentation by means of a simulating device

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/simulation

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The heart of complexity theory

At the heart of complexity theory are these formal models that utilize new techniques in artificial intelligence to motivate artificial agents. Behind them are some heavy-duty mathematics and computer science.

– Steve Phelan The Interaction of Complexity and Management

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Problem: prediction & control

For systems dynamics thinkers, the aim is to identify leverage points for interventions that will enable them to identify where, when and how to initiate change and so stay in control. However, the ability to do this in a system that is sensitive to tiny changes is called into question. That obviously has serious implications for the human ability to stay ‘in control’.

– Ralph Stacey Complexity and Organizational Reality

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What’s this?

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mikebaird/3464803900/

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pattern

pat·tern noun \ˈpa-tərn\

– a form or model proposed for imitation

– a reliable sample of traits, acts, tendencies, or other observable characteristics of a person, group, or institution

– a discernible coherent system based on the intended interrelationship of component parts

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/pattern

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Causal Loop Diagrams

Seeking patterns

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Archetype: Shifting the burden

Shifting the burden, dependence, and addiction arise when a solution to a systemic problem reduces (or disguises) the symptoms, but does nothing to solve the underlying problem.

– Donella H. Meadows Thinking in Systems

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Archetype: Shifting problems

Solutions that merely shift problems from one part of a system to another often go undetected because, unlike the rug merchant, those who “solved” the first problem are different from those who inherit the new problem.

– Peter M. Senge The Fifth Discipline

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Archetype: The easy way out

We all find comfort applying familiar solutions to problems, sticking to what we know best.

– Peter M. Senge The Fifth Discipline

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Problem : objectivation

Consider how this systems thinking compares with the earlier framework of scientific management. The manager continues to be equated with the natural scientist, the objective observer, and just as the scientist is concerned with a natural phenomenon, so the manager is concerned with an organization.

– Ralph Stacey Complexity and Organizational Reality

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Problem : objectivation

Hard systems thinking is unable to deal

satisfactorily with multiple perceptions of

reality. […] Different stakeholders will have

diverse opinions about the nature of the system

they are involved with and about its proper

purposes.

– Michael C. Jackson Systems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers

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So, how should we use those models in a social system

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Reductionism

Holism

Complexity Theory

Models

Complexity Thinking

Example

Final words

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“Soft Systems Thinking”

– Michael C. Jackson Systems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers

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“Soft Complexity”

Systems theory ->

Hard systems thinking

Soft systems thinking

Complexity theory ->

Hard complexity

Soft complexity

– Steve Maguire The Interaction of Complexity and Management

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Complexity Thinking (as I see it)

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1) Address complexity with complexity

The complexity of a system must be adequate to the complexity of the environment that it finds itself in.

– Max Boisot The Interaction of Complexity and Management

The human mind is more complex than tools

Use stories, metaphors, pictures…

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Law of Requisite Variety

If a system is to be stable the number of states of its control mechanism must be greater than or equal to the number of states in the system being controlled.

– William Ross Ashby

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Law of Requisite Variety

Ashby's law of requisite variety is as important to managers as Einstein's law of relativity to physicists.

– Anthony Stafford Beer Designing Freedom

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The Kanban board is complicated, not complex. http://www.xqa.com.ar/visualmanagement/tag/kanban/

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360 Degree evaluations

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Narratives useful for sense-making

[Complexity thinkers] argue that complex

thinking is best accomplished in a narrative

mode of thinking rather than the propositional

thinking of the traditional scientific method. […]

Both involve recursiveness, nonlinearity,

sensitive dependency on initial conditions,

indeterminacy, unpredictability and emergence.

– Ralph Stacey Complexity and Organizational Reality

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https://picasaweb.google.com/114043888000663006020/ALENetworkWorldCafeAtXP2011Results

Consider stories, metaphors, pictures or video

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Reduction vs. Absorption

Complexity reduction entails getting to understand the complexity and acting on it directly, including attempting environmental enactment. Complexity absorption entails creating options and risk-hedging strategies.

– Max Boisot The Interaction of Complexity and Management

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From reduction to absorption

Top-down rules reduce an organization’s ability to deal with variety.

– John Seddon Freedom from Command & Control

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Insofar as the business environment is becoming more complex, firms will need to shift from the complexity-reducing strategies that secured their success from the end of the nineteenth until the end of the twentieth century and place more stress on complexity-absorbing ones-a shift away from bureaucracies and toward fiefs, markets, and clans.

– Max Boisot The Interaction of Complexity and Management

Reduction vs. Absorption

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2) Use a diversity of models

Complexity itself is anti-methodology. It is against "one size fits all."

– Tom Petzinger The Interaction of Complexity and Management

Multiple weak models can make just as much sense as one strong model.

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Each systems approach is useful for certain purposes and in particular types of problem situation. A diversity of approaches, therefore, heralds not a crisis but increased competence in a variety of problem contexts.

– Michael C. Jackson Systems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers

Multiple approaches

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• Different people and tools

• Different metaphors and analogies

• Different patterns and simulations

• Different methods and practices

Multiple approaches

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3) Assume dependence on context

Best practice is past practice.

– Dave Snowden The Interaction of Complexity and Management

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Retrospective coherence

Any evidence provided will depend on the period selected and the place in which the events are occurring as well as other aspects of context. It follows that any relationship anyone identifies between a management action and an outcome could have far more to do with a particular time and place where the sample is selected than anything else.

– Ralph Stacey Complexity and Organizational Reality

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4) Assume subjectivity and coevolution

The observer influences the system, and the system influences the observer.

The people form the culture, and the culture forms the people.

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Feedback changes the whole system.

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5) Anticipate, adapt, explore

Anticipation

Looking forward, proactive, imagining improvement

Adaptation

Looking backward, reactive, responding to change

Exploration

Trying things out, safe-to-fail experiments

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6) Develop models in collaboration

Does the model help people to make sense of the world (insight and understanding)?

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1. Address complexity with complexity

2. Use a diversity of models

3. Assume dependence on context

4. Assume subjectivity and coevolution

5. Anticipate, adapt, and explore

6. Develop models in collaboration

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Reductionism

Holism

Complexity Theory

Models

Complexity Thinking

Example

Final words

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1. Address complexity with complexity

2. Use a diversity of models

3. Assume dependence on context

4. Assume subjectivity and coevolution

5. Anticipate, adapt, and explore

6. Develop models in collaboration

Does Scrum Match Complexity Thinking?

Yes

No

Yes

Yes

No

Yes

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1. Address complexity with complexity

2. Use a diversity of models

3. Assume dependence on context

4. Assume subjectivity and coevolution

5. Anticipate, adapt, and explore

6. Develop models in collaboration

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Example

What is the purpose of an organization?

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It’s about the shareholder

Our aim is to be the biggest or second biggest market player, and to return maximum value to stockholders.

– Jack Welch (General Electric) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shareholder_value

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It’s about the customer

There is only one valid definition of business purpose: to create a customer.

– Peter F. Drucker Management

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It’s about the employee

When we talk to our People, we proudly draw a pyramid on the chalkboard and tell them: You are at the top of the pyramid. You are the most important person to us. You are our most important Customer in terms of priority.

– Colleen Barrett (Southwest Airlines) http://leaderchat.org/2011/01/10/customers-employees-and-shareholders%E2%80%94who-comes-first-in-your-organization/

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It’s about the organization

The fundamental mission of an organization is to survive.

– W. Warner Burke Organization Change

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It’s about the environment

The function of firms is to produce and distribute wealth.

– Russell L. Ackoff Recreating the Organization

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It’s about all of them

Organizations must be viewed as social systems serving three sets of purposes: their own, those of their parts and those of the wider systems of which they are part.

– Michael C. Jackson Systems Thinking: Creative Holism for Managers

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It’s about none of them

A system has no purpose. Purpose is a relation, not a thing to have.

– Gerald M. Weinberg Introduction to General Systems Thinking

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Well, it depends...

Purposes are deduced from behavior, not from rhetoric or stated goals.

– Donella H. Meadows Thinking in Systems

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My view (with complexity thinking hat)

They all have a good point.

Sometimes we need a simple model.

Sometimes we need a complicated model.

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The Shu-Ha-Ri of purpose

Shu Delight customers

Ha Delight all stakeholders

Ri Delight yourself

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Reductionism

Holism

Complexity Theory

Models

Complexity Thinking

Example

Final words

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All models can be useful. Some fail faster than others.

– Jurgen Appelo

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There is nothing as practical as good theory.

– Kurt Lewin

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We should not take our models too seriously.

– Gerald M. Weinberg Introduction to Systems Thinking

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Is it Complexity Thinking or Systems Thinking ++

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The magpie

Finds what’s valuable and uses it in its nest

The only bird capable of self-reflection

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1. Address complexity with complexity

2. Use a diversity of models

3. Assume dependence on context

4. Assume subjectivity and coevolution

5. Anticipate, adapt, and explore

6. Develop models in collaboration

7. Copy and change

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The peacock

Showing off a complicated but totally useless idea

Not capable of self-reflection

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Don't take speakers too seriously.

Listen (critically) to the magpies

Be wary of the peacocks.

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http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/3.0/

This presentation was inspired by the works of many people, and I cannot possibly list them all. Though I did my very best to attribute all authors of texts and images, and to recognize any copyrights, if you think that anything in this presentation should be changed, added or removed, please contact me at [email protected].


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