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www.aidenvironment.org

Biodiversity and socio-economic impacts of trade-oriented agro-commodity production systems

UNEP 28 November 2007

Jan Joost Kessler

AIDEnvironment

kessler@aidenvironment.org

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Objectives of the study

• To assess the biodiversity and socio-economic impacts of the Dutch / EU trade and consumption of certain agro-commodities

• To develop a suitable methodology to do so

• Focus at agro-commodities for which NL is important consumer and the most important producer countries:– soy (in Argentina and Brazil)– palm oil (in Indonesia and Malaysia)– beef (in Argentina and Brazil) – coffee (in Honduras and Vietnam)

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Assessment of biodiversity impacts

1. Selection of administrative units in countries where production is concentrated

2. Insight in production systems

3. Data on land-use dynamics / expansion for agro-commodities in recent 5-8 years (= study period)

4. Calculation of 5 indicators based on concept of Natural Capital Index

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Natural Capital Index = quantity x quality

quality

quantity

100%

100%0%

100%100%

100%0%

70%

100%

100%0%

25%

50%

50%

past today tomorrow

Habitat loss

Habitatloss

NCI

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The decline of NCI as land-use intensifies

pristine forest

selective logging

secondary vegetation

plantation

degraded

Literature review- Tropical & temperate regions- Plants, insects, birds, other vertebrates

100%

0%

50%

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

prim

ary

fore

st

sele

ctive

loggin

g

secondary

fore

st

agro

fore

str

y

pla

nta

tions

cro

pla

nd

pastu

re

mean s

pecie

s a

bundance

Biodiversity ( NCI)

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Reference data on NCI decline for land-use

Main GLC 2000 class Sub category Description NCI loss by class (%)

Forests (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10)

Primary vegetation (forest)

Minimal disturbance, where flora and fauna species abundance are near pristine

0

Slightly disturbed or managed forest

Extractive use like hunting, selective logging, timber extraction and re-growth

30

Secondary forests Natural regrowth 50

Forest plantation Planted forest often with exotic species 80

Shrubs and grasslands (11, 12, 13, 14, 15)

Primary vegetation (grass / shrublands)

Grassland or shrubs dominated vegetation (e.g. steppe, tundra or savannah)

0

Livestock grazing Grasslands with wildlife replaced by grazing livestock

30

Man-made pastures Forests and woodlands converted to grasslands for livestock grazing.

90

Mosaic: cropland / forest (17)

Agroforestry Agricultural production intercropped with (native) trees.

50

Cultivated and managed areas (16, 18)

Low input agriculture Extensive resource-use and low external input agriculture

70

Intensive agriculture High external input agriculture, dependent on external inputs and/or irrigation.

90

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Biodiversity indicators used in study

Indicators Description of relevance

B0. Area increase agro-commodity Area change used for agro-commodity production in study period

B1. Growth factor commodity crop area

The ratio between B0 and original production area.

B2. NCI in the production area compared to the national average

The NCI in 2000 (taking into account different types of land use) in the production areas as compared to the national average.

B3. Loss of biodiversity due to the commodity

NCI loss in the study period as a result of the commodity expansion.

B4. Relative contribution of the commodity to overall biodiversity loss

NCI loss by the commodity during the study period as a proportion of overall NCI decline by land-use

B5 Ecological claim (overall biodiversity loss)

Overall biodiversity loss from natural ecosystems with corrections for the original land use and multiplier effects.

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Example of results for soy in Brazil

Country and production areas

B0: Area increase by commodity (x 1000 ha)

B1: Growth factor

commodity(%)

B2: NCI in production

area in 2000* (in % NCI)

B3: NCI loss by commodity

(% NCI)

B4: Part of commodity to

NCI loss(in %)

B5: Ecological claim

(in km²)

Soy Brazil

Rio Grande do Sul 962 0.24 − − 1 1 1,656

Paraná 1,801 0.45 − − 1 2 2,065

Mato Grosso 2,940 0.56 + 3 17 31,552

Goiás 1,470 0.55 − − 4 10 13,311

Tocantins 233 0.92 + 1 5 2,407

Maranhão 253 0.74 = 1 3 2,480

Piauí 143 0.93 = 1 2 1,400

Total Brazil 9,860 0.46 76% 1 3 65,498

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Biodiversity loss from soy in Brazil and Argentina before 1995 (yellow) and between 1995-2004 (red)

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Some conclusions• B0: Expansion of selected commodities in selected production areas

during study period was 28 m ha, and about 67 m ha in the countries. • B1: Soy showed the highest growth factors (80-90%). Low growth factors

occur in established region. Growth factors are highest in frontier regions.• B2: In expansion and frontier areas NCI is often higher than the national

average. • B3: NCI loss by commodity is generally not high (1-5%), because areas

are large. • B4: The contribution from commodity production during the study period to

overall biodiversity loss by land-use may be more than 10%. • B5: reflects the ecological impacts in terms of area with 100% NCI loss,

which may be quite high. Corrected for multiplier effects. • Total biodiversity loss caused by the commodities in selected areas in the

study period corresponds to 154,000 km² (= four times the Netherlands). • Multiplier effects are macro-level changes due to the agro-commodity, e.g.

displacement of people or expansion as a result of food competition.

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Assessment of socio-economic impacts

Indicators

E. Economic

E1. Per capita gross domestic product (national and administrative units)

E2. Employment rate

S. Social

S1. Food security, child mortality

S5. Poverty (index)

V. Vulnerability

V1. Conflicts

V2. Inequality

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Assessment of socio-economic impacts

Economic / Profit Social / People Vulnerability / people Planet

Commodity, country and production regions

GDP / capita

Employmt. rural/urban

Food security

Poverty / HPI Conflicts

Inequality / Gini

NCI change

Soy Brazil                

  Established                

  Expansion                

  Frontier                

Legend:

better or similar starting situation, with favourable or similar rate of change

  better or similar starting situation, with unfavourable rate of change

  worse starting situation, with favourable or similar rate of change

  worse starting situation, with unfavourable rate of change

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Main conclusions• Considerable loss of NCI by agro-commodities, mainly in

expansion and frontier areas, can be roughly quantified by using NCI and reference data

• Loss of NCI by production and trade of agro-commodities is not, or not sufficiently compensated by improvement of socio-economic well-being, especially in frontier areas

• The methodology allows one to assess these changes at sub-national level, especially for selected areas where statistics are available – assessments at national level would not be useful

• Major risks now with expansion of biofuels (e.g. palmoil)• Doubts about theory of export-oriented growth?

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Thank you