Download - Aromatics trade flow report 11.24.14

THE TPS WEEKLY AROMATICS TRADE FLOW REPORT November 24, 2014 – Vol 1, Issue 26

LONDON SINGAPORE HOUSTON

BENZENE AND PYGAS

SUMMARY: US spot benzene prices

surged to close the week, gaining $33 on

the day after December was heard

traded as high as $1,040.50/mt DDP TXC.

Liquidity increased after market

appeared to bottom out and ahead of

pending contract negotiations and

volumes of trade barrels were heard

estimated well in excess of 300,000

barrels.

For November, loadings were few with a

handful of 5-9kt parcels heard fixed.

Sources reported at least three different

fixtures of volumes between 15-25kt

though confirmation was not available.

Sources however noted that any such

fixture were likely COA.

Landed fixtures included a near 4kt

parcel from Brazil as well as some 10kt

reformate heart cut benzene, all

reported on November 17. A 15kt parcel

of pygas arrived at Baton Rouge from

Tarragona mid-month, according to PIERS

The TPS Asian benzene marker fell nearly

$40 on the week to close Friday at

$994/mt FOB USG and at $1,018/mt CFR

China.

December European benzene was talked

notionally at near $985/mt CIF ARA while

January maintained a $20 premium to

December.

-$100.00

-$50.00

$0.00

$50.00

$100.00

$150.00

$200.00

$0.00

$200.00

$400.00

$600.00

$800.00

$1,000.00

$1,200.00

$1,400.00

$1,600.00

$1,800.00

3-M

ar-1

4

11

-Mar

-14

19

-Mar

-14

27

-Mar

-14

4-A

pr-

14

14

-Ap

r-1

4

23

-Ap

r-1

4

2-M

ay-1

4

12

-May

-14

21

-May

-14

30

-May

-14

9-J

un

-14

17

-Ju

n-1

4

25

-Ju

n-1

4

3-J

ul-

14

14

-Ju

l-1

4

22

-Ju

l-1

4

30

-Ju

l-1

4

7-A

ug-

14

15

-Au

g-1

4

25

-Au

g-1

4

3-S

ep

-14

11

-Se

p-1

4

19

-Se

p-1

4

29

-Se

p-1

4

7-O

ct-1

4

15

-Oct

-14

23

-Oct

-14

31

-Oct

-14

10

-No

v-1

4

18

-No

v-1

4

US BZ DDP M2 BZ FOB KOREA SPREAD

Qty Load Discharge Laycan Ship

5,000 USGC ARA Oct 1-10 Bow Spring

9,000 Ulsan Houston Early Nov Siteam Explorer

6-9,000 Mumbai USGC End Nov Bow Sagami

9,000 Sikka USGC End Nov Nave Universe

5-7,000 Korea Houston Early Dec NA

9,000 Ulsan USGC H1 Dec Formosa 29

PYGAS


10,000 Rotterdam Houston Early Oct Shamrock Jupiter

10,000 Fawley Houston Oct Ebony Ray

15,000 Tarragona Baton Rouge End Oct Songa Opal

*Spread includes freight rates from Korea to the US Gulf Coast of $70/mt

Copyright © The Petrochemical Standard 2014 | [email protected] |

CONTENT IS PROVIDED “AS IS”. TPS MAKES NO GUARANTEES OR WARRANTIES AS TO THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, TIMELINESS, OR RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM ACCESSING AND USING TPS DATA.

SUMMARY: US spot styrene monomer prices

continued to move lower this week before

rebounding slightly to close the week, supported by

gains in benzene. In the US activity was thin with

one trade heard early in the week at $1,256.50/mt

FOB USG.

With European styrene prices declining due in part

to a recent surge of US material sent that way, US

prices moved in concert. With European Dec SM

prices near $1,260-1,270/mt, US prices would have

to be near or below $1,234.50/mt (56 cents/lb) FOB

USG.

Despite US monomer prices being higher than their

counterparts in Europe and Asia, some 45,000

metric tons was expected to load from the USGC in

November. Sources also noted that a decline in the

US benzene contract could help make it profitable

to produce incremental pounds of styrene.

In Asia, styrene monomer prices were lower with

the TPS CFR China marker falling over $23 on the

week to finish Friday at $1,277/mt. FOB Korea

styrene finished down $8.50 on the week to close

Friday at $1,255/mt.

In production sources said that Styrolution was

beginning the restart of its 770,000 metric

tons/year SM unit at Bayport, Texas. Confirmation

from the producer was not immediately available.

Westlake had restarted its 260,000 mt/year SM

unit at Lake Charles earlier this month.

STYRENE AND BENZENE DERIVATIVES

Styrene


7,000 Houston Gebze Oct 25-30 MTM Hamburg

7,340 Houston Rotterdam Oct 25-30 Bow Summer

5,700 Houston Anping, China H1 Nov Stolt Island

10,500 Houston Brazil Nov 1-10 Sloman Herakles

5,000 USGC ARA Mid-Nov Harbour Progress

10,000 USGC ARA Nov 20-30 Bow Chain

5,000 Houston ARA Mid-Nov Nordic tonnage - NA

5,000 Houston ARA H2 Nov Chem Lyra

5,000 Houston ARA H2 Nov Stolt Innovation

5,000 Houston FE and China Nov 12-20 Bow Trajectory



Cumene


5,230 Antwerp Mobile Oct 25-30 Bow Clipper

6,500 Paiolo Baton Rouge Nov 1-5 Henda

3,000 Ulsan Freeport Nov 5-10 Atllantic Canyon

5,000 Terneuzen Freeport Nov 15-20 NA

Phenol


2,857 Houston Rotterdam Oct 25-30 Nordic Mari

1,048 Houston Kaohsiung Oct 25-30 Stolt Effort

1,048 Houston Pasir Gudang, Malaysia Oct 25-30 Stolt Effort

2,500 Houston Kandla November 1-5 Stolt Savannah

1,030 Houston Kandla November 5-10 Songa Peace

Styrene economics on a spot basis remained in negative

territory this week after waning demand and lower

prices in Europe put downward pressure on US prices.

With the November benzene contract settled at

$1,136/mt and ethylene at near $1,108/mt,

ethylbenzene production costs were estimated at

$1,158.75/mt (52.56 cents/lb) while styrene monomer

production costs were at $1,311.75/mt (59.50 cents/lb).

With spot being talked well under 57 cents/lb, margins

on incremental pounds were estimated at near -

$67.25/mt, according to TPS data. The styrene to

benzene spread closed Friday at $216/mt, down from

near $450/mt the previous week.

-120.00

-70.00

-20.00

30.00

80.00

130.00

180.00

230.00

280.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

50.00

55.00

60.00

65.00

70.00

75.00

80.00

11

-Mar

-14

20

-Mar

-14

31

-Mar

-14

9-A

pr-

14

21

-Ap

r-1

4

30

-Ap

r-1

4

12

-May

-14

21

-May

-14

2-J

un

-14

11

-Ju

n-1

4

20

-Ju

n-1

4

1-J

ul-

14

11

-Ju

l-1

4

22

-Ju

l-1

4

Au

g-1

-14

Au

g-1

2-1

4

Au

g-2

1-1

4

2-S

ep

-14

11

-Se

p-1

4

22

-Se

p-1

4

1-O

ct-1

4

10

-Oct

-14

21

-Oct

-14

30

-Oct

-14

10

-No

v-1

4

19

-No

v-1

4

SM production costs SM Spot value SM Margins $/mt

MIXED XYLENES, PARAXYLENE AND TOLUENE

Activity in the xylenes and toluene markets remained

slow on the week outside of a few COA fixtures. US

November spot MX prices closed this week at nea

$812/mt FOB USG. The US price was a $38 premium to

the TPS CR China marker.

European MX prices were last heard talked notionally at

$820/mt FOB NWE

PX prices continued to trace movement in Asia while

activity was thin. In November, 20,000 metric tons was

heard loaded from the US, 10kt for Mexico and another

10kt headed to China. US prices were at $970/mt Friday

while the TPS CFR Taiwan marker was at $1,040/mt.

US toluene prices finished the week at $836/mt FOB USG

as a 5,200 mt parcel arrived in Houston from Aratu/La

Plata.



0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

11/2/2014 11/3/2014 11/4/2014 11/5/2014 11/6/2014

US styrene monomer exports - H1 Nov

PX


10,500 Texas City Coatzacoalcos Oct 10-15 Bertina10,000 Houston Suape Oct 20-30 Fairchem Mustang10,400 Houston Pajaritos/Coatzacoalcos End Oct Oceanic Cerise9,300 Houston Altamira/Pajaritos Nov 5-10 Bertina10,000 Houston Suape Nov 1-10 MTM London10,000 Houston Ningbo Mid-Nov Siteam Adventurer

MX


4,200 Rio Grand do Sol Houston Oct 1-10 Selje

10,000 Houston Ulsan Oct 5-10 Sequoia

9,500 Houston Ulsan Oct 20-25 Bow Elm

2,000 Houston Bourbata Oct 20-30 St Aqua

2,500 Houston Veracruz Oct 25-30 Bernora

TOLUENEQty Load Discharge Laycan Ship

5,245 Aratu/La Plata Houston 28-Oct Bow Chain

Activity in the xylenes and toluene markets remained slow on

the week outside of a few COA fixtures. US November spot

MX prices closed this week at near at $812/mt FOB USG. The

US price was a $38 premium to the TPS CR China marker.

European MX prices were last heard talked notionally at

$820/mt FOB NWE

PX prices continued to trace movement in Asia while activity

was thin. In November, 20,000 metric tons was heard loaded

from the US, 10kt for Mexico and another 10kt headed to

China. US prices were at $970/mt Friday $70 below the TPS

CFR Taiwan marker.

US toluene prices finished the week at $836/mt FOB USG as a

5,200 mt parcel arrived in Houston from Aratu/La Plata.

European toluene was talked at a $5/mt premium to US

material while the TPS CFR China marker closed slightly higher

Friday at $863/mt.

-$50.00

$0.00

$50.00

$100.00

$150.00

$200.00

$0.00

$200.00

$400.00

$600.00

$800.00

$1,000.00

$1,200.00

$1,400.00

$1,600.00

14

-Mar

-14

25

-Mar

-14

3-A

pr-

14

14

-Ap

r-1

4

24

-Ap

r-1

4

6-M

ay-1

4

15

-May

-14

27

-May

-14

5-J

un

-14

16

-Ju

n-1

4

25

-Ju

n-1

4

7-J

ul-

14

16

-Ju

l-1

4

25

-Ju

l-1

4

5-A

ug-

14

14

-Au

g-1

4

25

-Au

g-1

4

4-S

ep

-14

15

-Se

p-1

4

24

-Se

p-1

4

3-O

ct-1

4

14

-Oct

-14

23

-Oct

-14

3-N

ov-

14

12

-No

v-1

4

21

-No

v-1

4

MX FOB $/mt PX FOB USG M1 PX-MX Spread



COMPANY LOCATION CAPACITY TIMING

US

Styrolution Bayport 770 kt/year 11/20/2014 - RS

Shell Norco 1,360 kt/year 11/13/2014 - Fire

Westlake Lake Charles 260,kt/year 11/13/2014 - RS

ASIA

LG Chem Yeosu 380 kt/year H2 Oct - 30 day

Sinopec Zhenhai 650 kt/year End Oct - 30 day

Thai PTTGC Map Tu Phut 650 PX, 355 BZ 10/17/2014 - RS

EUROPE

Shell Moerdijk 460 kt/year Down June -RS Jan 15

ExxonMobil Botlek 820 kt/year October - RS H1 2015

PRODUCTION

H2 Nov MTD – $816.25 H2 Nov MTD -

$794.00

H2 Nov MTD – $816.25 H2 Nov MTD -

$794.00





HALF MONTH AVERAGES

US SPOT BZ DDP USG US SPOT SM FOB USG

H2 Sep - $1,268.30 H2 Sep - $1,489.21

H1 Oct - $1,243.50 H1 Oct - $1,500.25

H2 Oct - $1,154.00 H2 Oct - $1,493.18

H1 Nov - $1,057.00 H1 Nov -$1,416.50

H2 Nov MTD - $983.71 H2 Nov MTD - $1,244.75

US SPOT TOLUENE FOB USG US SPOT MX FOB USG

H2 Sep – $1,084.46 H2 Sep - $1,090.80

H1 Oct - $1,113.00 H1 Oct - $1,072.50

H2 Oct - $972.80 H2 Oct - $978.93

H1 Nov - $874.60 H1 Nov - $867.18

H2 Nov MTD – $816.25 H2 Nov MTD - $794.00

US SPOT PX FOB USG

H2 Sep – $1,185.90

H1 Oct - $1,133.75

H2 Oct - $997.50

H1 Nov – $938.50

H2 Nov MTD - $956.00

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

BZ price gal NGT price gal MX price gal

1.500

1.700

1.900

2.100

2.300

2.500

2.700

2.900

3.100

3.300

1-J

an-1

3

1-F

eb

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1-M

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1-A

pr-

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1-M

ay-1

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1-J

un

-13

1-J

ul-

13

1-A

ug-

13

1-S

ep

-13

1-O

ct-1

3

1-N

ov-

13

1-D

ec-

13

1-J

an-1

4

1-F

eb

-14

1-M

ar-1

4

1-A

pr-

14

1-M

ay-1

4

1-J

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-14

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14

1-A

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14

1-S

ep

-14

1-O

ct-1

4

1-N

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14

NYMEX RBOB Gasoline

Download - Aromatics trade flow report 11.24.14

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