Download - AQGR and Climate Change (Aquaculture and fisheries) reduced

Roger Pullin and Patrick White

Aquatic Genetic Resources and

Climate Change: Adaptation and

Mitigation

24 – 27 October 2007 WAS Istanbul - Competing Claims

And they call this planet Earth ?

Carbon Cycle

FAO. 2010. The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture (SOFIA 2010).

Climate change

stressors Short-term fluctuations

Seasonal patterns Precipitation

Severe storms Temperature

Winds Long term

change Sea Level Rise Ocean currents

Warming Acidification Freshwater availability

Impacts on aquatic

environments

Impacts on aquatic

ecosystems

Impacts on aquatic species

Impacts on aquaculture

Impacts on fisheries

Roles of aquatic resources for adaptation and mitigation

Conclusions, recommendations and priority actions

Regional implications

Africa

Latin America/

Caribbean

North America

Asia

Europe

Oceania

Report structure

Climate change - Increase in variance

Source: IPCC (2001a, 2001b)

Climate change - Increase in mean


Increase in mean and variance


Historical temperature change

IPCC 2001

Average Surface Warming and Ocean Heat Content

Increasing acidification of the ocean

(IPCC Fourth Assessment Report)

• Dissolved CO2 forms a weak acid

• pH decreases as dissolved CO2 increases

• Direct observations of pH over last two decades show pH decreases of about 0.02 units per decade

• Projections based on SRES scenarios give reductions in average global surface pH of 0.14 to 0.35 units over the 21st century

• Bad news for marine organisms which use aragonite and calcite to build shells

European Station for Time Series in the Ocean (29˚N, 15˚W)

Hawaii Ocean Time Series (23˚N, 158˚W)

Bermuda Atlantic Time Series Study (32˚N, 64˚W)

Ocean acidification

Seasonal pattern change • Rainy season starting early / late • Hot season starting early / late • Rains during dry season • Dry during rainy season

Expected Changes in Environmental Parameters in 2050

Climate zone Surface Temp. (°C)

Bottom Temp. (°C)

Salinity ppt

Bottom Salinity

Ice concentration (%)

Arctic +0.7 +1.6 -1.2 -0.8 -9

Temperate N +0.4 +0.8 -0.7 -0.3 -2

Subtropical N +1.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.0 0

Tropical +1.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0

Subtropical S +0.5 +0.3 -0.2 0 0

Temperate S +0.4 +0.7 -0.1 0.0 -0.3

Antarctic +0.7 +0.5 -0.2 0.0 -3

13 Source: Rainer Froese, IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany, EDIT Symposium

Key aquatic habitats Fisheries and aquaculture are dependent on a number of key aquatic habitats that are affected by Climate Change • Coral reefs • Sea grass beds • Mangroves • Agricultural wetlands • Flooded forests

Coral reefs – Provide food and shelter for an estimated

25% of known marine fish species – Indicator (Bleaching) of ecological impacts of

short term Climate Change • Susceptible to

– Ocean acidification – Increasing seawater temperature – Precipitation patterns – river plumes – Strong waves and currents – Sea level rise – Extreme weather events

Coral bleaching

Photo by Nicolas Bailly, FishBase, Philippines, 2010

Coral reefs • Ocean acidification

– Affect coral growth and recruitment • Precipitation

– Low tolerance of salinity change – Prone to increasing water run off and

sediment plumes • Temperature and ENSO

– Increase in temperature by 1-3 deg C can trigger coral bleaching

– Recovery is possible to various extents, with time

Sea grasses – Important nursery grounds for juvenile fish – Important feeding grounds – Some species are very slow growing; e.g.,

Posidonia • Susceptible to • Temperature

– Increasing seawater temperature; e.g., Mediterranean

– Large temperature fluctuations – Extreme heat waves

Mangroves – Important spawning and nursery grounds – Provide coastal protection

• Susceptible to – Sea level rise

• Increasing salinity • Increased flooding • Move range inland if possible (needs time)

– Extreme weather events • Tropical storms and typhoons – damage • Remove peat deposits • Bring sulphide-rich sediments to surface

Anticipated impacts and negative outcomes for fisheries

Adapted from Allison (2009)

Ocean current change

ENSO

Sea level rise

Rainfall

River flow

Lake levels

Temperature changes

Storm severity

Storm frequency

Acidification

Species composition, productivity, species distribution, diseases, coral bleaching, calcifiers

Catch effort, safety at sea, fishing areas

Increased operational costs, reduction in livelihoods, loss and damage, displacement, food security

Climate change Negative Outcomes

Degraded production ecology

Impoverished communities

and livelihoods

Higher risk fishing operations

Wider societal and economical

burdens

Adaptation costs, market impacts, water resource allocation

Impacts

Fisheries – inland fisheries – Fragmented populations (especially freshwater) – High genetic diversity

• Susceptible to – Temperature fluctuations – changes in lake water

stratification – Precipitation – river flows – Low dissolved oxygen – Lake and reservoir turnover – Water quality changes – Changes in connectivity of waters

Fisheries – Inland fisheries Impacts • Temperature

– Water stratification – species composition – Breeding timing and cues – Evapotranspiration – water levels – Poleward/upstream range changes or extinctions

• Precipitation – Water flows – droughts, water levels, habitat loss, – salt water intrusion – range loss – fish yields lower

and unpredictable • Glacial melt – dry season river flows

– Higher nutrient / pollutant levels – fish yields

Fisheries – Inland fisheries Impacts • Sea level rise

– Saltwater intrusion – estuaries, deltas, rivers – Reduce FW habitats especially deltas

• Lake water levels – range loss – reduced reproduction – fish yields lower and unpredictable

• Wind pattern changes – change in water mixing – change in yields (natural productivity and fisheries)

•Great regional variation among river basins

Coastal fisheries • Fishing yield per km2 per year

Fisheries – Coastal fisheries • Vulnerable ecosystems

– Sea grass beds – Wetlands – Estuaries – Coral reefs – Mangroves

• Susceptible to – Seawater temperature change – Freshwater run off and nutrient plumes – Coastal currents change – Extreme events/storms – Impacts on coastal ecosystems

Fisheries – Coastal fisheries Impacts • Temperature change and fluctuation

– Spawning aggregations, initiation of spawning – Early pelagic life stage - survival – Change in natural range polewards

• Coastal current change – Early pelagic life stage – range and survival • Sensitive ecosystems – Temperature/pH – coral bleaching – Reduced reef fish yields, reduced abundance of small

fish

Fisheries – Pelagic fisheries • Susceptible to

– Temperature – increasing – Rainfall/water discharge – sediment plumes – Changes in ENSO fluctuations affect industrial

fisheries Impacts • Temperature – increasing

– Changes in range polewards

Fisheries – Pelagic fisheries Impacts • Rainfall/water discharge – sediment plumes

– Primary productivity and yield • Changes in ENSO fluctuations

– Peruvian anchoveta (for fishmeal and fish oil) and tropical tunas

– Increased year to year catch variability

Fisheries – Marine demersal – Mainly on continental shelves

• Susceptible to – Temperature increase

• Impacts – Natural range change poleward – Change in zooplankton prey affecting yield;

e.g., copepods on cod recruitment and abundance

Fisheries – Highly migratory – Eels – Salmon – Sturgeons – Tuna

• Susceptible to – Seasonal pattern change – Precipitation - river flow change;

droughts/floods – Changes in currents – Change in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

Fisheries – Highly migratory Impacts • Seasonal pattern change

– Environmental variables used as migratory cues – migrate earlier or later

• Temperature increase, surface temperature anomalies, NAO

– Affect range of the species – Affect the migration route and extent

• Precipitation - river flow change – Restricts upstream migration (e.g., salmon)

• Current direction and strength – Effects distribution and range (e.g., eels) – strength and position

of Gulf Stream

Fisheries – Culture-based fisheries • Freshwater

– Restocking lakes and reservoirs (e.g., carps, tilapias, coregonids)

• Marine – Stock enhancement/ranching (e.g., scallops)

• Conservation (e.g., sturgeons)

• Introductions and alien species (e.g., carps, tilapias, Nile perch

Aquaculture

Top fed aquaculture & livestock producers – 2008

APR 10.59% since 1980 APR 2.59% since 1980

(FAO – FISHSTAT/FAOSTAT, 2010)

Fisheries and aquaculture supply 114 million tonnes of fish for food (SOFIA 2010)

Aquaculture – seed supply • Wild seed based aquaculture

• Fish – eels, tunas, milkfish, etc. • Molluscs – oysters, mussels, clams • Seaweeds

– Susceptible to • pH, temperature increase and fluctuations, water

current change – Impacts

• Recruitment, larval distribution, larval survival

• Hatcheries – Impacts

• Water quality; breeding cycles; egg development

Aquaculture – FW Ponds • Freshwater ponds (shallow)

– Fish ( e.g., carps, catfishes, tilapias, charrs, trout)

– Crustaceans (freshwater prawns) • Susceptible to

– Droughts, floods, changes in precipitation, saltwater intrusions, temperature increases, temperature fluctuations

• Impacts – Natural productivity, fish stress, growth rate,

survival

Aquaculture – Brackish water and marine ponds

• Shallow ponds – Fish milkfish, mullets – Crustaceans – prawns

• Susceptible to – Temperature, intense rainfall, storm surge,

floods • Impacts

– Natural productivity, fish stress, growth rate, survival

Aquaculture - tanks and raceways • Gravity flow

– Salmonids (e.g., trout) • Pumped

– eels, catfishes, tilapias, ornamental species • Susceptible to

– Water supply change – Changes in ambient water quality (pH, temperature,

water flow, etc.) • Impacts

– Fish stress, disease, productivity

Recirculation can reduce vulnerability

Aquaculture - cages and pens • Sheltered

– FW (lakes/reservoirs/rivers) – carps, tilapias, – BW/M (bays/lagoons) – milkfish, groupers, snappers, seabass

• Exposed/offshore – M – salmon, seabass, seabream

• Susceptible to – Sheltered – oxygen levels, overturn – Exposed - storms/squalls and typhoons/hurricanes (increasing

intensity and frequency)

• Impacts – FW – oxygen levels, productivity – M – facility damage, interruption of activity, fish loss/escape

Aquaculture - rafts and ropes • Rafts

– Oysters, mussels, scallops • Ropes

– Mussels, seaweeds • Susceptible to

– pH decrease, water quality change, circulation change, storms/squalls and typhoons/hurricanes (increasing frequency and intensity)

• Impacts – Recruitment (range and survival), productivity,

structural damage

Aquaculture - tidal culture • tidal flats/mud flats

– clams, oysters, mussels • Susceptible to

– extreme temperature, temperature fluctuations, pH change,

– sea level rise, storms, storm surges, (change of substrate type)

• Impacts – recruitment, culture range, production loss

Aquaculture - Integrated Farming and Integrated Multi-Trophic Level Aquaculture (IMTA) • Integrated Farming

– Fish/livestock – ducks, chickens – Fish/crop – rice/shrimp – Fish/nutrient waste – feedlot systems

• IMTA – Fish – fed nutrient input – Mollusc – extractive particulate nutrients – Seaweed – extractive dissolved nutrients

Spreading risk among enterprises and products

Preliminary Analysis – Aqua Maps • 342 marine fishes with verified maps • Global suitable habitat in 1999 and 2050 • Only core habitat considered (P > 0.5)

Current Species richness

Source: Rainer Froese, IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany, EDIT Symposium


Predicted Species Richness 2050



Drop in Species Richness Current-2050


More Losers than Winners suitable habitats

0

30

60

90

120

150

-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100Change in area (%)

Coun

t

Change in area of suitable habitat between 2000 and 2050 for 342 marine fishes. Median loss of area is 6% (95% CL 3.8 – 7.4), significantly different from zero. Source: Rainer Froese, IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany, EDIT Symposium

Deeper is Better

Change in area by preferred habitat of marine species. For 41 deep sea fishes, the median change of +2% (95% CL -0.9 – +3.7. For 103 demersal fishes, median loss is 3% (95% CL -6.5 - -0.9). For 31 benthopelagic fishes, the median loss of 3.3% (95% CL -12 – 3.8. For 55 pelagic fishes, the median loss is 13% (95% CL -17 - -2.9). For 112 reef-associated fishes, the median loss is 10% (-17 - -6.5).

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

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1 bathy 2 dem 3 bpel 4 pel 5 reef

Chan

ge in

are

a (%

)

Deep sea fish +2.0% Demersal fish -3.0% Benthopelagic -3.3% Reef fish -10% Pelagic fish -13%

Polar and Tropical Fishes Lose

Change in area by climate zone. For 43 deep sea species, the median change is not significantly different from zero (median 1.8, 95% CL -2.5 – 3.7). Of five polar species, three lose 9 to 32% of suitable area. For 50 temperate species, median change is +2.3% (95% CL -0.1 – 4.0). For 112 subtropical species, the median loss is 7% (95% CL 3.8 – 13) and for 132 tropical species the median loss is 9% (95% CL 7 – 15).

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

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1 deep 2 polar 3 temp 4 sub 5 tropical

Chan

ge in

are

a (%

)

Deep sea fish 0% Polar fish -9 to -32% Temperate +2.3% Sub-tropical -7.0% Tropical fish -9.0%

Change in fisheries catch Projected changes in averaged maximum catch potential from 2005 to 2055 by the 20 Exclusive Economic Zone regions with the highest catch in the 2000s

Source: Pew Sea around us project – Fisheries, Ecosystems and Biodiversity

Vulnerability - Fisheries More vulnerable Less vulnerable Inland Marine Shallow water Deep water Long pelagic stage Short pelagic stage Complicated life cycle Simple life cycle Long generation time Short generation time Narrow tolerance range Wide tolerance range Sessile species Mobile species Less fecundity Great fecundity

Vulnerability - aquaculture More vulnerable Less vulnerable Freshwater Marine water Shallow water Deep water Wild fry/seed collection Hatchery production Long culture cycle Short culture cycle Narrow tolerance range Wide tolerance range High trophic level species Low trophic level species

Probable outcomes of climate change on aquatic genetic resources for major taxa

Taxa Warming Acidification Elevated N, P

Microalgae With increased nutrients, algal blooms are enhanced; oxygen is periodically depleted

Calcite formation is reduced; e.g., in coccolithophores

Eutrophication and harmful algal blooms, including red tides are enhanced

Macroalgae; freshwater macrophytes

Enhanced biomasses, with increased nutrients; periodic oxygen depletion due to die-offs; thermal stratification is increased

Coralline algae are reduced and more susceptible to diseases and grazing

Eutrophication and biomasses increase

Crustaceans Gamete are less viable in decapods and barnacles; disease problems increase

Food sources are reduced; larval development and building skeletal structures may be compromised; recruitment is lowered

Eutrophication and harmful algal blooms are increased, with periodic oxygen depletion; e.g., on nursery grounds

Probable outcomes of climate change on aquatic genetic resources for major taxa Taxa Warming Acidification Elevated N, P Molluscs Disease problems and

irradiation stress increase

Shell formation is compromised and recruitment lowered

Water toxicity and harmful algal blooms increase

Other aquatic invertebrates: e.g., corals, echinoderms

Corals are bleached and suffer increased viral attacks; sea urchin gametes are less viability and fertilization is reduced

Calcareous skeletal structures are compromised

Water toxicity and harmful algal blooms increase; lower light reduces photosynthesis in coral symbionts

Finfish Distributions and migrations are altered, poleward shifts in some species; water column mixing and available oxygen decrease; some disease problems increase

Distributions and migrations are altered in pH -sensitive species

Water toxicity and harmful algal blooms increase

Fostering Adaptation and Mitigation: Our ‘Take Home Messages’ MUSTS TO DO • Take good care of aquatic ecosystems • Maintain diverse gene pools, supporting conservation of genetic resources as a sector • Address ALL of the anthropogenic stressors that work against these goals; not only climate change

MUSTS TO AVOID • Unsustainable exploitation of natural resources • Degradation and loss of habitats • Sector-specific policies, institutions and actions that produce conflicts and miss opportunities for multi-sector partnerships and synergy

AquaClimate Future Scenarios

Developing measures to cope with predicted Climate Changes 2020 and 2050

Minimum temperatures

Increase pond productivity

Minimum temperature difference

Minimum temperature differences 2020

Increase by 0.75 ‘C in January and from July to November Increase of 1.2 ‘C in May and December

2050 Increase of 1 to 1.5 ‘C in January and from July to November Increase of 2 ‘C in May and December

Temperature - Maximum

Temperature Maximum difference

Maximum temperatures difference 2020

Increase of between 0.5 to 0.8 ‘C

2050 Increase of between 1.1 and 1.6 ‘C

Monthly temperature fluctuation

Monthly temperature fluctuation 2020

Higher fluctuation in January (0.5 ‘C) and February (1 ‘C) Less fluctuation in May (0.5 ‘C)

2050 Higher fluctuation in January and October (0.5 ‘C) and February (1 ‘C) Less fluctuation in May (0.5 ‘C)

Precipitation Average (mm\month)

Precipitation difference (mm\month)

Differences 2020

Generally slightly higher (20 mm /month) Higher rainfall in June (100 mm) Lower rainfall in July (60 mm)

2050 Generally higher in the first half of the year (20 mm) Generally lower in the second half of the year (20 mm) Higher in May (40 mm) and July and August (90 mm)

Change in river flow from present

Change in riverflow from average

Elevation chart

Download - AQGR and Climate Change (Aquaculture and fisheries) reduced

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