American Government American Government and Organizationand Organization
PS1301PS1301
Tuesday, 21 SeptemberTuesday, 21 September
AnnouncementsAnnouncements
Midterm scheduled for ThursdayMidterm scheduled for Thursday
Please do not forget scantronsPlease do not forget scantrons
Also bring a photo idAlso bring a photo id
How do people decide How do people decide who to vote for?who to vote for?
Prospective ModelProspective Model (Michigan) (Michigan) Party identificationParty identification Candidate characteristicsCandidate characteristics Issue positionsIssue positions
Retrospective ModelRetrospective Model Party identificationParty identification Evaluation of the pastEvaluation of the past
Party IdentificationParty Identification
““Generally speaking, do you usually think of Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, and yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, and Independent, or what?”Independent, or what?”Persons who call themselves Republicans or Persons who call themselves Republicans or Democrats are then asked: “Would you call Democrats are then asked: “Would you call yourself a strong (Republican, Democrat) or a yourself a strong (Republican, Democrat) or a not very strong (Republican, Democrat).not very strong (Republican, Democrat).Persons who call themselves Independents, Persons who call themselves Independents, answer “no preference,” or name another party answer “no preference,” or name another party are asked : “Do you think of yourself as closer to are asked : “Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican or to the Democratic party?”the Republican or to the Democratic party?”
Distribution of PartisansDistribution of Partisans
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
Str
on
gD
em
ocr
at
We
ak
De
mo
cra
t
Ind
ep
en
de
nt-
De
mo
cra
t
Ind
ep
en
de
nt-
Ind
ep
en
de
nt
Ind
ep
en
de
nt-
Re
pu
blic
an
We
ak
Re
pu
blic
an
Str
on
gR
ep
ub
lica
n
Pe
rce
nt
Ideology and PartisanshipIdeology and Partisanship
Functions of Party IdentificationFunctions of Party IdentificationHelps you organize and categorize informationHelps you organize and categorize information
Perceptual ScreenPerceptual Screen Helps you make value judgments. Is George Bush Helps you make value judgments. Is George Bush
competent? Could Bill Clinton be trusted?competent? Could Bill Clinton be trusted?
Influence Political BehaviorInfluence Political Behavior Persons who are party identifiers are more interested Persons who are party identifiers are more interested
in politics, more concerned about who wins the in politics, more concerned about who wins the election, and more likely to vote. election, and more likely to vote.
party id is the most important determinant of the way party id is the most important determinant of the way people votepeople vote
Partisanship over timePartisanship over time
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
Partisans Independents No preference
Influence of Party IdInfluence of Party Id
Dynamics of 2000 Presidential Dynamics of 2000 Presidential CampaignCampaign
Source: Johnston and Hagen (APSA 2003) “Priming and Learning: Evidence from the 2000 Annenberg Study”
CharacterCharacter
Perception of Gore’s HonestyPerception of Gore’s Honesty
Traits of CandidatesTraits of Candidates
Requirements for Issue VotingRequirements for Issue Voting
Aware of the issueAware of the issue
Care about the issueCare about the issue
Perceive difference between the Perceive difference between the candidatescandidates
Correct about the differenceCorrect about the difference
Criteria for Issue VotingCriteria for Issue Voting
Retrospective VotingRetrospective Voting
Party identificationParty identification
Evaluation of the pastEvaluation of the past economic indicators, “It’s the economy, economic indicators, “It’s the economy,
stupid”stupid” WarsWars
IncumbencyIncumbency
