American Government American Government and Organizationand Organization
PS1301PS1301
Friday, 5 MarchFriday, 5 March
AnnouncementsAnnouncements
Midterm next week; review sheet now Midterm next week; review sheet now availableavailable
Additional book, Additional book, American Politics after American Politics after September 11September 11 now available on line for no now available on line for no additional charge (go to my backpack)additional charge (go to my backpack)
Take Quiz in Chapter 7Take Quiz in Chapter 7
How to prepare study guide on lineHow to prepare study guide on line
Measuring Public OpinionMeasuring Public Opinion
Non scientificNon scientific Straw pollsStraw polls
ScientificScientific Based on probability samplingBased on probability sampling
The Logic of Probability SamplingThe Logic of Probability Sampling
Difference between a population and a sampleDifference between a population and a sampleHomogeneity V. HeterogeneityHomogeneity V. Heterogeneity
If everyone were the same we would not need to sample.If everyone were the same we would not need to sample. One person could be surveyed to find out the characteristics One person could be surveyed to find out the characteristics
of the entire population.of the entire population.
Variation in what we study; precisely why we study itVariation in what we study; precisely why we study itFor a sample to be useful in providing information of For a sample to be useful in providing information of the population from which it is drawn must be the population from which it is drawn must be representativerepresentativeEssentially the sample must contain the same variation Essentially the sample must contain the same variation as in population as in population
Principle of Probability SamplingPrinciple of Probability Sampling
A sample will be representative of the population A sample will be representative of the population from which it is selected if all members of the from which it is selected if all members of the population have an population have an equal chanceequal chance of being selected of being selected in the sample. in the sample.
We can do this by selecting respondents We can do this by selecting respondents randomlyrandomly; ; each respondent has an equal chance of being each respondent has an equal chance of being selectedselected
Accuracy is a function of sample size (and Accuracy is a function of sample size (and proportion).proportion).
Accuracy is also a function of the way the question Accuracy is also a function of the way the question is worded (more on this later) as well as context is worded (more on this later) as well as context
Question wording: Question wording: Example of AbortionExample of Abortion
Hard reasonsHard reasons women’s health seriously threatenedwomen’s health seriously threatened raperape birth defectsbirth defects
Soft reasonsSoft reasons low incomelow income not married and does not want to marrynot married and does not want to marry married but does not want more childrenmarried but does not want more children interfered with work or educationinterfered with work or education
Question wording Question wording
““Should abortion be legal as it is now, or Should abortion be legal as it is now, or legal only in the cases of rape, incest, or to legal only in the cases of rape, incest, or to save the life of the mother, or should it not save the life of the mother, or should it not be permitted at all?”be permitted at all?” 48% legal as it is now48% legal as it is now 43% limited to rape, incest, health of mother43% limited to rape, incest, health of mother 9% not permitted at all9% not permitted at all
Source: CBS/NYT January 1989Source: CBS/NYT January 1989
Question wordingQuestion wording
““Do you think abortions should be legal Do you think abortions should be legal under any circumstances, legal under under any circumstances, legal under certain circumstances, or illegal under all certain circumstances, or illegal under all circumstances?circumstances? 28% legal28% legal 53% under certain circumstances53% under certain circumstances 19% illegal19% illegal
Source: Gallup/Newsweek January 1989Source: Gallup/Newsweek January 1989
DifferencesDifferences
Same time, same sample. Why the Same time, same sample. Why the difference? difference?
Respondents were not given the same Respondents were not given the same alternatives. Explicitly state circumstances alternatives. Explicitly state circumstances that fit the “hard reasons”.that fit the “hard reasons”.
Other ExamplesOther Examples
If a woman wants to have an abortion and her doctor If a woman wants to have an abortion and her doctor agrees to it, should she be allowed to have an abortion agrees to it, should she be allowed to have an abortion or not? Yes 65%or not? Yes 65%Please tell me whether or not it should be possible for a Please tell me whether or not it should be possible for a pregnant woman to obtain a legal abortion if she wants it pregnant woman to obtain a legal abortion if she wants it for any reason? Yes 36%for any reason? Yes 36%Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Every woman who wants to have an abortion should be Every woman who wants to have an abortion should be able to have one? Agree 61%able to have one? Agree 61%Please tell me whether or not it should be possible for a Please tell me whether or not it should be possible for a pregnant woman to obtain a legal abortion if she wants it pregnant woman to obtain a legal abortion if she wants it for any reason. Yes 41%for any reason. Yes 41%
Opinion on AbortionOpinion on Abortion
Views on Abortion by ReligionViews on Abortion by Religion
Voter TurnoutVoter Turnout
Lower for congressional elections than Lower for congressional elections than Presidential electionsPresidential elections
Decline in voter turnoutDecline in voter turnout
How low is it? Does it matter?How low is it? Does it matter?
The role of age and educationThe role of age and education
Decline in TurnoutDecline in Turnout
Turnout in Comparative Turnout in Comparative PerspectivePerspective
Age and TurnoutAge and Turnout
Role of Age and EducationRole of Age and Education
Who Voted in 2000?Who Voted in 2000?
Role of PartiesRole of Parties
Link to Link to George Bush’s websitGeorge Bush’s websitee
The John Kerry campThe John Kerry campaignaign
Why is voter turnout so low?Why is voter turnout so low?
Difficulty of registrationDifficulty of registration
Lack of convenienceLack of convenience Early votingEarly voting Absentee votingAbsentee voting Vote by mailVote by mail
Voter AttitudesVoter Attitudes
Electoral SystemElectoral System
Changing demographicsChanging demographics
