Transcript
Page 1: Alcohol Availability & Alcohol Consumption: New Evidence from Sunday Sales Restrictions

Alcohol Availability &Alcohol Consumption:New Evidence from Sunday Sales Restrictions

Kitt Carpenter (UC Irvine) &

Daniel Eisenberg (University of Michigan)

Comments welcome ([email protected])

Page 2: Alcohol Availability & Alcohol Consumption: New Evidence from Sunday Sales Restrictions

Motivation Large body of evidence in economics

and public health that links alcohol availability and alcohol consumption.

Availability as measured by: Prices, taxes Age restrictions Proximity to liquor stores

Page 3: Alcohol Availability & Alcohol Consumption: New Evidence from Sunday Sales Restrictions

Our Paper: Sunday Sales Policies All states allow alcohol to be purchased

on Sundays for on-premise consumption (e.g. at bars & restaurants).

States and provinces vary as to whether alcohol can be purchased on Sundays for off-premise consumption (e.g. at home). Some have no restrictions Some prohibit entirely Some allow localities to decide

Page 4: Alcohol Availability & Alcohol Consumption: New Evidence from Sunday Sales Restrictions

Sunday Sales Map: 2006 (APIS)

Page 5: Alcohol Availability & Alcohol Consumption: New Evidence from Sunday Sales Restrictions

Background “Blue laws” have been around since

before the Revolutionary war.

Prohibited shopping, working, or consuming alcohol on Sundays.

Enforcement unclear, but strong support around Prohibition era.

Page 6: Alcohol Availability & Alcohol Consumption: New Evidence from Sunday Sales Restrictions

Policy Relevance Since 2002, 12 states have repealed their

bans on off-premise Sunday sales, trying to increase state tax revenues.

Possible unintended effects: What if Sunday sales restrictions do not affect

overall sales/consumption? (e.g. if they simply shift the within-week distribution?)

What if bar goers substitute toward home drinking?

If consumption does increase on Sundays, what if there are negative externalities? (e.g. fatalities)

Page 7: Alcohol Availability & Alcohol Consumption: New Evidence from Sunday Sales Restrictions

Our Question:Do Blue Laws Affect Drinking? We are aware of no empirical evidence

on the effects of these restrictions on alcohol consumption per se.

This is surprising, since the restrictions: are widespread (16 states prohibit SS) are nontrivial (14% of hours of sale) have directly testable implications

Page 8: Alcohol Availability & Alcohol Consumption: New Evidence from Sunday Sales Restrictions

Related Literature - Fatalities McMillan et. al. (2005 AJPH)

Considers New Mexico’s 1995 repeal of its Sunday sales ban.

Finds extremely large fatality increases (42%)

Smith (’78, ’87, ’88a, ’88b, ’90) Uses Australian city/state introduction of

Sunday trading hours, controls for changes in outcomes on other days of the week.

Finds extremely large fatality increases (32-100%).

Page 9: Alcohol Availability & Alcohol Consumption: New Evidence from Sunday Sales Restrictions

Data Requirements For This Study Geographic identifiers & day-specific

alcohol consumption outcomes.

In US: NLAES 1992 (N ~ 40,000) In Canada: NPHS 1994-99 (N ~

57,000) We use the data as repeated cross-

sections to take advantage of large Ontario buy-in in 1996/97

Page 10: Alcohol Availability & Alcohol Consumption: New Evidence from Sunday Sales Restrictions

Cross-Section Drinking Model: OLS Day-specific drinking outcome = + 1X

+ 2(Sunday sales allowed) + 3Z + Jd +

X includes: race, education, sex, marital status, veteran status, employment dummies

Jd are Census division indicators (US only) Z is state ACCRA real beer, wine, and

spirits prices (US only)

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Coefficient is: Sunday Sales OKUS: NLAES 1992

Overall

Wed Thur Fri Sat Sun Mon Tues

Any drinks

.011(.018)

.014(.010)

.011(.010)

-.002(.018)

-.0004(.018)

.030**(.014)

.013(.008)

.015(.009)

Among current drinkers

Any drinks

-- .017(.015)

.015(.01)

-.015(.022)

-.015(.020)

.047**(.021)

.016(.012)

.020(.013)

# days drank in month

-- .055(.037)

.041(.036)

.023(.080)

.037(.067)

.161**(.061)

.057*(.033)

.063*(.032)

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Alternative Model: Any Drinks

Overall

Wed Thur Fri Sat Sun Mon Tues

Sunday sales partly restricted

.002(.025)

.003(.012

)

.002(.012

)

-.021(.026)

-.019(.025)

.022(.019)

.006(.010)

.007(.011)

Sunday sales not at all restricted

.020(.021)

.025**

(.012)

.022*(.013

)

.019(.020)

.021(.019)

.038**(.016)

.021**(.010)

.024**(.011)

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Coefficient is: Sunday Sales OKCanadian NPHS 1994-1999

Overall

Wed Thur Fri Sat Sun Mon Tues

Any drinks

.022***

(.006)

.004(.004)

.004(.004)

.007(.005)

.011(.005)

.031***

(.005)

.008*(.004)

.011**(.004)

Among past week drinkers

Any drinks

-- -.003(.008)

-.004(.008)

-.004(.009)

-.004(.009)

.049***

(.049)

.005(.008)

.011(.008)

# drinks

-.206(.146)

-.009(.026)

.011(.032)

-.094**

(.041)

-.261***

(.048)

.102***

(.035)

.016(.027)

.028(.026)

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Interpreting Cross-Section Results Patterns of coefficients support a causal

effect of Sunday sales restrictions on point in time consumption.

Modest evidence of Monday/Tuesday spillovers & Friday/Saturday substitution.

Estimates consistent with a small but nontrivial effect of Sunday sales on overall population drinking.

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Remaining Unobservables? What if unobserved characteristics about

states are correlated not only with overall alcohol consumption but also day-specific consumption?

Religiosity may be correlated both with the presence of a Sunday sales restriction and lower drinking on Sundays.

Goal: isolate a plausibly exogenous change in Sunday-specific availability.

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Ontario’s policy change Alcohol sales are heavily regulated by the

Canadian provincial governments. In Ontario, off-premise alcohol sales only

available at LCBO’s (not at supermarkets).

Prior to 1997, allowed some Sunday sales at a few Nov/Dec holidays.

After 1997, Sunday sales ok. No other province changed Sunday

alcohol sales policy over this period.

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Diff-in-Diff Drinking Model: OLS Day-specific drinking outcome = +

1X + 2(After 1997) + 3(Ontario) + 4(After 1997 * Ontario) +

X includes: race, education, sex, marital status, employment dummies

Robust standard errors clustered on province.

Page 18: Alcohol Availability & Alcohol Consumption: New Evidence from Sunday Sales Restrictions

Coefficient is: Ontario * After ’97Canadian NPHS 1994-1999

Overall

Wed Thur Fri Sat Sun Mon Tues

Any drinks

.012(.013)

-.00002

(.010)

-.005(.009)

.002(.011)

.004(.012)

.021*(.011)

.008(.009)

.014(.009)

Among past week drinkers

Any drinks

-- -.010(.018)

-.018(.017)

-.006(.020)

-.008(.019)

.031(.020)

.008(.018)

.021(.018)

# drinks

.083(.315)

-.068(.057)

-.035(.061)

-.032(.090)

-.035(.106)

.148*(.086)

-.007(.058)

.113**(.050)

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Interpreting the DD Results Consistent with a causal effect of

Sunday sales restrictions on Sunday alcohol consumption

Modest evidence of effects on overall population drinking

Effect sizes slightly smaller than those implied by cross-sectional results

Relevant subsamples are significant at 5% (prime age adults, females)

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Implications We have not evaluated the overall

costs/benefits of liberalizing Sunday sales policies.

Main benefits are reductions in inconvenience costs.

Modest consumption effects suggest health costs are unlikely to be severe, though this requires more research.

Page 21: Alcohol Availability & Alcohol Consumption: New Evidence from Sunday Sales Restrictions

Next Steps Canadian Community Health Survey

(2001 and 2003), very large samples (100K each)

Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) 1992: Do day-specific fatalities mirror our

day-specific consumption patterns? More recently, do repeals of Sunday sales

bans affect day-specific fatalities?

Comments welcome ([email protected])


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