Transcript
Page 1: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Advisory Board

Presentation

AIM XXXI

December 6, 2010

Page 2: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

AIM XXXI Analysts

2Applied Investment Management XXXI

Brooke, Brian Fahrenbach, Eric Li, Susan Smith, Jack

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Sotheby's, Zagg Newmont Mining, Symmetry Medical NeuStar, OptionsXpress Walgreens, DreamWorks

Clark, Chelsea Flaherty, John Mack, Ryan Straccia, William

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Abbott Labs, Chiquita DaVita, Spectra Energy Perrigo, Cisco Systems Comscore, Cree

Colianni, Martin Friel, Thomas O'Brien, Kevin Sturm, Patrick

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Amazon, Whirlpool Activision-Blizzard, NetApp Coca-Cola, Potash Brandywine, Archer Dan. Mid.

Conklin, Kaitlin Goode, Nicholas Pappas, James Sullivan, Jessica

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Hansen Natural, Dresser-Rand UnitedHealth, Hercules Offshore Republic Services, Global Payments EcoLab, Royal Carribbean

Corcoran, Matt Haddad, Thomas Patton, Ryan Weeldreyer, Eric

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

General Dynamics, Choice Hotels Gilead, Cal-Maine Foods Google, Astec Ind. Alliant Techsystems , Chevron

Deboer, Tyler Hinckley, James Roggeveen, Richard Zumot, James

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Apple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet

Delaney, Matt Idaszak, Joseph Santrach, Steve

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Morningstar, FedEx Insituform, J. Crew Diamond Foods, Alaska Air

Page 3: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Presentation Agenda

• We appreciate the opportunity to present to the AIM Advisory Board

• Agenda

– Portfolio Objectives and Guidelines

– Economic Environment

– Security Analysis

– Portfolio Performance

– General Information

3Applied Investment Management XXXI

Page 4: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Portfolio Objectives and Guidelines

4Applied Investment Management XXXI

Page 5: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Course Overview

5Applied Investment Management XXXI

• Course objectives

– Provide analysts with a foundation in portfolio

management

– Blend theoretical academic objectives with practical hands-

on investing

Page 6: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Analyst Responsibilities

• Coverage of two companies

– One from the initial portfolio handed over by the previous

AIM class

– One of the analyst’s choosing

Applied Investment Management XXXI 6

Page 7: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Analyst Responsibilities

• Security analysis

– Company background – How does the company make money?• SWOT analysis

– Industry analysis – What is the competitive environment of the industry?• Porter’s Five Forces

– Fundamental analysis – What are the key drivers of return on equity?• DuPont analysis

– Earnings forecast – What EPS will the company earn through the next fiscal year?

• Heuristic and financial model approaches

– Final valuation and recommendation – What is the intrinsic value of the stock?

• Free cash flow model, dividend discount model, multiplier model

– Technical analysis – How has the stock traded in the short-term?• Moving averages, relative strength, support and resistance

Applied Investment Management XXXI 7

Page 8: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Group Responsibilities

• Monitoring current economic conditions

– Unemployment, inflation, GDP growth, etc.

– How do these economic variables impact the portfolio?

• Tracking portfolio performance

– Relative performance

– Sector weighting

– Risk adjusted metrics

• Executing trades

– Final portfolio voting occurred on Monday November 22nd with trades executed the following day

• Preparing and publishing AIM newsletters

• Recording class votes and activities

8Applied Investment Management XXXI

Page 9: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Portfolio Decision Process

• Full discussion of each stock in the existing portfolio and those

with initiating coverage

• Buy or sell recommendations given by analysts based on their

final intrinsic valuations

• Final portfolio decisions require a majority vote of all analysts

9Applied Investment Management XXXI

Page 10: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Investment Philosophy

• Investment Objectives– Long-term investment horizon (3-5 years)

– Outperform S&P 500 using equities traded on US exchanges

• Risk Tolerance– Not a factor that will be managed actively

• Portfolio diversification will naturally limit risk

• Natural allocation to small/mid/large cap stocks

• Specific benchmarks– S&P 500

– Russell 2000

– Hank Blended Index (HBI)• 65% S&P 500, 35% Russell 2000

10Applied Investment Management XXXI

Page 11: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

AIM Investment Policies

• Only equities traded on major U.S. exchanges

- No bonds, money market instruments, or derivatives

- No margin purchases or short-selling

• Portfolio Target Allocation

- 35% in Small (<$500M) and Mid-Cap ($500M-$5B) Stocks

- 65% in Large Cap (>$5B) Stocks

- +/- 10% Boundary

• Composition will roughly match the S&P 500

• No individual position should exceed 10% of portfolio’s market value

• 0% long-term target for cash holdings

- Short-term cash positions will be invested in a market index

portfolio

11Applied Investment Management XXXI

Page 12: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

AIM Investment Policies

AIM will not invest in any company whose values are not

consistent with those of the University of Notre Dame.

This includes, but is not

limited to:

• Abortifacients

•Birth Control

•Tobacco

12Applied Investment Management XXXI

Page 13: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Portfolio Allocation

13Applied Investment Management XXXI

69%

31%

AIM XXX

Large Cap

Small & Mid-

Cap68%

32%

AIM XXXI

• Slightly overweight in large-cap stocks, similar to inherited portfolio

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Economic Environment

14Applied Investment Management XXXI

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Economic Environment

Applied Investment Management XXXI 15

I. Summary

II. Unemployment

III. Inflation

IV. Housing

V. Consumer Spending

VI. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

VII. The Fed’s Response

Page 16: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

The Uncertain Recovery

• Economic growth continues to disappoint – 2.5% in Q3 2010

• Unemployment remains high – 9.8% in Nov.

• Core inflation below informal Fed targets – 0.6% in Oct.

• Housing market displays prolonged weakness

• Consumers and businesses still hesitant to spend

16Applied Investment Management XXXI

Page 17: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Unemployment

17Applied Investment Management XXXI

Page 18: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Unemployment

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19901981

20011958

19531948

1960196919741980

Page 19: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Unemployment

19Applied Investment Management XXXI

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

Ch

an

ge

in N

on

farm

Pa

yro

lls

(00

0's

)

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

January 2008 – December 2009 : -8,363,000

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

Un

emp

loy

men

t R

ate

Unemployment Rate, 2000 - Present

Page 20: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

20

Employment Levels

Construction, 83.3%

Durable Goods

Manufacturing, 66.2%

Finance, 98.7%

Government, 108.1%

Business

Services, 102.3%

Hospitality, 112.4%

Information

Services, 76.5%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

110.0%

120.0%

Ind

ex V

alue

Industry Employment since 2000

Applied Investment Management XXXI

Page 21: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

21

Employment Levels

Construction, 72.9%

Durable Goods

Manufacturing, 80.8%

Finance, 90.8%

Government, 100.7%

Business

Services, 94.2%

Hospitality, 98.9%

Information

Services, 89.7%

70.0%

75.0%

80.0%

85.0%

90.0%

95.0%

100.0%

105.0%

110.0%

Ind

ex V

alue

Industry Employment since 2007

Applied Investment Management XXXI

Page 22: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Unemployment

Applied Investment Management XXXI 22

Mean Duration of Unemployment

• September 2010: 33.3 weeks

• October 2010: 33.9 weeks

• November 2010: 33.8 weeks

November: 6,313

Page 23: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Inflation

23Applied Investment Management XXXI

Page 24: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Inflation

24Applied Investment Management XXXI

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Jan

-05

Ma

r-0

5

Ma

y-0

5

Jul-

05

Sep

-05

No

v-0

5

Jan

-06

Ma

r-0

6

Ma

y-0

6

Jul-

06

Sep

-06

No

v-0

6

Jan

-07

Ma

r-0

7

Ma

y-0

7

Jul-

07

Sep

-07

No

v-0

7

Jan

-08

Ma

r-0

8

Ma

y-0

8

Jul-

08

Sep

-08

No

v-0

8

Jan

-09

Ma

r-0

9

Ma

y-0

9

Jul-

09

Sep

-09

No

v-0

9

Jan

-10

Ma

r-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Jul-

10

Sep

-10

Yea

r O

ver

Yea

r P

erce

nt

Ch

an

ge

in C

PI

YOY CPI Inflation Rates, 2005 - Present

Oct 2010: 1.17%

Page 25: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Inflation

25Applied Investment Management XXXI

Page 26: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Applied Investment Management XXXI 26

Housing

Page 27: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

New Home Starts

27Applied Investment Management XXXI

Source: US Census Bureau

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Jan-0

4

Mar

-04

May

-04

Jul-

04

Sep

-04

No

v-0

4

Jan-0

5

Mar

-05

May

-05

Jul-

05

Sep

-05

No

v-0

5

Jan-0

6

Mar

-06

May

-06

Jul-

06

Sep

-06

No

v-0

6

Jan-0

7

Mar

-07

May

-07

Jul-

07

Sep

-07

No

v-0

7

Jan-0

8

Mar

-08

May

-08

Jul-

08

Sep

-08

No

v-0

8

Jan-0

9

Mar

-09

May

-09

Jul-

09

Sep

-09

No

v-0

9

Jan-1

0

Mar

-10

May

-10

Jul-

10

Sep

-10

No

v-1

0

Hou

sin

g S

tart

s, T

hou

san

ds

of

Un

its

New Housing Starts Jan '04-Oct '10

Page 28: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

New Home Sales

28Applied Investment Management XXXI

Source: CalculatedRiskBlog.com

Page 29: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Case-Shiller Price Index

29Applied Investment Management XXXI

Source: Standard & Poor

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

Jan-8

7

Aug-8

7

Mar

-88

Oct

-88

May

-89

Dec

-89

Jul-

90

Feb

-91

Sep

-91

Ap

r-9

2

No

v-9

2

Jun-9

3

Jan-9

4

Aug-9

4

Mar

-95

Oct

-95

May

-96

Dec

-96

Jul-

97

Feb

-98

Sep

-98

Ap

r-9

9

No

v-9

9

Jun-0

0

Jan-0

1

Aug-0

1

Mar

-02

Oct

-02

May

-03

Dec

-03

Jul-

04

Feb

-05

Sep

-05

Ap

r-0

6

No

v-0

6

Jun-0

7

Jan-0

8

Aug-0

8

Mar

-09

Oct

-09

May

-10

Page 30: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Mortgage Rates

30Applied Investment Management XXXI

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

4.50%

5.00%

5.50%

6.00%

6.50%

7.00%

7.50%

Jan-0

4

Ap

r-0

4

Jul-

04

Oct

-04

Jan-0

5

Ap

r-0

5

Jul-

05

Oct

-05

Jan-0

6

Ap

r-0

6

Jul-

06

Oct

-06

Jan-0

7

Ap

r-0

7

Jul-

07

Oct

-07

Jan-0

8

Ap

r-0

8

Jul-

08

Oct

-08

Jan-0

9

Ap

r-0

9

Jul-

09

Oct

-09

Jan-1

0

Ap

r-1

0

Jul-

10

Oct

-10

Historic Mortgage Rates Jan '04- Oct '10

15-Year FRM

30-Year FRM

1-Year ARM

Source: HSH Associates

Page 31: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Existing Home Inventory

Applied Investment Management XXXI 31

Source: CalculatedRiskBlog.com

Page 32: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Housing Outlook

32

•Unprecedented foreclosure crisis

-Affected by high unemployment

-Add to housing inventories

•Months of supply for Oct 2010 increased to 8.6

•Mortgage Rates

-Rise from record low levels

•Demand for housing will grow gradually

-Consumer confidence and businesses expanded

-Demand may grow, lack of building

•Forecast: New Housing Starts will rise 12% through 2011

Applied Investment Management XXXI

Page 33: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Applied Investment Management XXXI 33

Consumer Spending

Page 34: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Personal Consumption

34Applied Investment Management XXXI

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

PCE (% Change)

Page 35: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Consumer Credit Conditions

35Applied Investment Management XXXI

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

1943 1950 1958 1965 1973 1980 1988 1995 2003 2010

Total Consumer Credit Outstanding (bb)

25.00

26.00

27.00

28.00

29.00

30.00

31.00

32.00

33.00

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

Household Debt Obligations to Disposable Personal Income (%)

Page 36: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Personal Savings Rate

Applied Investment Management XXXI 36

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Personal Savings Rate (%)

%

Page 37: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Consumer Sentiment

37Applied Investment Management XXXI

Page 38: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Applied Investment Management XXXI 38

Gross Domestic Product

(GDP)

Page 39: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Contributors to GDP

39Applied Investment Management XXXI

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

20

07

-II

20

07

-III

20

07

-IV

20

08

-I

20

08

-II

20

08

-III

20

08

-IV

20

09

-I

20

09

-II

20

09

-III

20

09

-IV

20

10

-I

20

10

-II

20

10

-III

Contributors to GDP % Change

Government

Spending

Net Exports

Private

Investment

Personal

Consumption

Net Annualized Real

GDP Change

from Previous

Period 3.2 2.3 2.9 -0.7 0.6 -4.1 -7.0 -5.0 -0.7 1.6 4.9 3.7 1.7 2.5

Page 40: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Business Spending

40Applied Investment Management XXXI

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

Private Domestic Investment ($ Billions) Financing Gap ($ Billions)

Page 41: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Structures vs. Equipment

Applied Investment Management XXXI 41

• Equipment and Software investment has recovered to pre-crisis levels, but

spending on structures continues to decline.

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Non-Residential Fixed Investment ($ Billions)

Total

Equipment and

Software

Structures

Page 42: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Contributors to GDP

Applied Investment Management XXXI 42

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

20

07

-II

20

07

-III

20

07

-IV

20

08

-I

20

08

-II

20

08

-III

20

08

-IV

20

09

-I

20

09

-II

20

09

-III

20

09

-IV

20

10

-I

20

10

-II

20

10

-III

Contributors to GDP % Change

Government

Spending

Net Exports

Private

Investment

Personal

Consumption

Net Annualized Real

GDP Change

from Previous

Period 3.2 2.3 2.9 -0.7 0.6 -4.1 -7.0 -5.0 -0.7 1.6 4.9 3.7 1.7 2.5

Page 43: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Exports – A Disappointing Recovery

Applied Investment Management XXXI 43

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

U.S. Trade Deficit ($ Billions)

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

2,500

2,700

U.S. Imports and Exports ($ Billions)

Imports

Exports

Page 44: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Conclusion

44

• Commodity Inflation

Chevron—BUY/OVERWEIGHT

Cal-Maine Foods--BUY

Archer Daniels Midland—BUY

Potash Corp—HOLD

Newmont Mining—HOLD

• Stagnant Job Growth

Paychex—SELL

Brandywine Realty—SELL

• Government Spending Cuts

General Dynamics—UNDERWEIGHT

Alliant Tech Systems—UNDERWEIGHT

Applied Investment Management XXXI

• Our GDP Forecast—Slow growth of 2.5-3.0% in 2011 and 2012

Page 45: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Applied Investment Management XXXI 45

The Fed’s Response

Page 46: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Quantitative Easing 2

• Recovery not progressing adequately

• ―No one’s doing anything, so we need to do

something.‖

• Can’t lower short-term rates any further

– Large-scale asset purchases to depress longer-term

rates

Applied Investment Management XXXI 46

Page 47: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Concerns

• Will the Fed be successful in cutting back asset purchases and stimulus?

• International response

– Trade implications

– Asset bubbles?

• Behavior of long-term rates in response to potential implications of QE2

Applied Investment Management XXXI 47

Page 48: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Performance Since QE2 Announcement

Applied Investment Management XXXI 48

2.40%

2.50%

2.60%

2.70%

2.80%

2.90%

3.00%

11/3/10 11/8/10 11/13/10 11/18/10 11/23/10 11/28/10 12/3/10

Yie

ld

10-year Treasury Yield

4.00%

4.10%

4.20%

4.30%

4.40%

4.50%

11/3/10 11/8/10 11/13/10 11/18/10 11/23/10 11/28/10 12/3/10

Yie

ld

30-year Treasury Yield

3.02%

4.31%

Page 49: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Security Analysis

49Applied Investment Management XXXI

Page 50: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Security Selection Process

50Applied Investment Management XXXI

•The AIM portfolio employs a bottom-up approach to

security selection

•Analysts complete six reports on potentials stocks

that address key areas of concern:

•Company Background

•Fundamental Analysis

•Industry Report

•EPS Forecast

• Final Valuation

•Technical Analysis

•All six reports are considered and each analyst

makes a buy, sell, no buy recommendation for his/her

securities

Page 51: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Analyst Agenda

Analyst Company Focus

Joe Idaszak J. Crew Group Company Background

Matt Delaney Morningstar Fundamental Analysis

Tom Haddad Cal-Maine Foods Fundamental Analysis

Billy Straccia comScore EPS Valuation

Ryan Mack Cisco Systems DCF Valuation

James Pappas Global Payments Multiples Valuation

Eric Fahrenbach Symmetry Medical Discovery

Tom Friel NetApp Technical Analysis

Applied Investment Management XXXI 51

Page 52: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

J. Crew Group (JCG)

Applied Investment Management XXXI 52

Market Price $37.65

Forward P/E 13x

Market Cap $2.40B

2010 Revenue $1.71B

2010 EPS $2.29

-

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

20,000,000

$0.00

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

Page 53: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Company Background

53Applied Investment Management XXXI

The Company• Specialty Retailer

– Niche: 18-50 yr old female

– Single Product, no multi

branding (e.g. GPS, URBN)

– Multi-Channel Outlet

– Opportunities:

2007 2008 2009 1H 2009 1H 2010

Women 66% 66% 65% 67% 65%

Men 20% 19% 19% 18% 19%

Children 1% 3% 4% 3% 5%

Accessories 13% 12% 12% 12% 11%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

% Revenue Breakdown by Product

Page 54: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Company Background

• Management Team:– CEO Millard ―Mickey‖ Drexler, 2003

• Previously CEO of Gap, Inc. during the 1990s rise of the Gap brands

– President, Executive Creative Director Jenna Lyons, 2010• Employee since 1990, promoted to current position in

September

• Public Perception: Michelle Obama– Catalyst: J. Crew in the public eye

• Tonight Show with J. Leno

• London with Prime Minister’s wife

Applied Investment Management XXXI 54

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JCG Recommendation - Buy

Applied Investment Management XXXI 55

Investment Thesis:

J. Crew serves a niche position within apparel and provides a quality, well-designed selection of

products that matches market styles and trends. Led by one of the best management teams in the

industry, the company will continue to prosper as it expands itself into more menswear, children’s

clothing (crewcuts), and internationally.

Valuation Method Value Weight Weighted Value

Forward P/E 43.94$ 17.5% 7.69$

Forward Price-to-Sales 44.02 12.5% 5.50

Price-to-Book 43.70 5.0% 2.19

Forward P/E, % of S&P 500 49.43 7.5% 3.71

Forward P/E, % of Ralph Lauren 46.00 7.5% 3.45

Free Cash Flow 45.05$ 50.0% 22.53$

Final Valuation 45.06$

Price as of 11/22/10 37.65$

Estimated Upside 19.68%

Page 56: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Buyout Offer

• TPG Capital Partners (~75%)

– Previously owned 88% when privatized in 1997

• Leonard Green & Partners (~22%)

• Chairman/CEO Mickey Drexler (~3%)

• $3 bn, or $43.50 per share

– Drexler will stay on in same role for 4 years

starting at the completion of the buyout

• Market Price > Bid Price Another Bid?

56Applied Investment Management XXXI

Page 57: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Morningstar (MORN)

Applied Investment Management XXXI 57

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

$55Market Price $49.87

Forward P/E 22x

Market Cap $2.5B

LTM Revenue $526MM

LTM EPS $1.58

Page 58: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Business Overview

Applied Investment Management XXXI 58

19.1%

13.7%

13.3%

8.2%

6.3%

2009 Top Five Products by Revenue

Licensed Data

Advisor Workstation

Investment Consulting

Morningstar.com

Morningstar Direct

Total: 61% of Revenue

Operating Segments

•Investment Information

•80% of revenues

•30% operating margin

•Investment Management

•20% of revenues

•50% operating margin

Target Client Tailored Product

Institutional Morningstar Direct

Financial Advisors Advisor Workstation

Individuals Morningstar.com

Target Client Tailored Product

Institutional Money Management

Financial Advisors Investment Consulting

Retirement Participants Retirement Advice

Page 59: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Business Overview

59Applied Investment Management XXXI

U.S. 87.0% 86.0% 79.4% 75.8% 73.0%

Non-U.S. 13.0% 14.0% 20.6% 24.2% 27.0%

Percentage Revenue by Region

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

2005

Japan

Australia

Europe

Asia

Canada

U.S.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Page 60: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Business Overview

Applied Investment Management XXXI 60

Renewal Rate of Contracts Retention Rate of Subscriptions

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Renewal Rate (Contracts) Margin of Error

90%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Retention Rate (Subscriptions) Margin of Error

Third Quarter 2010 Updates:

•Licenses for Morningstar Direct rose 32.3% to 4,403, with particularly strong growth outside

the United States, partly reflecting client migrations from Institutional Workstation

100%

95% 95%

80%

60% 60% 60%65%

55%

Page 61: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Fundamental Analysis: Ratios

61Applied Investment Management XXXI

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Capital T/O Leverage Ratio F.A.T/O

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Return on Equity

Profitability Ratio: Return on Equity

Components of Return on Equity

Page 62: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

MORN Recommendation – Sell

62Applied Investment Management XXXI

Valuation Method Value Weight Weighted Value

Price-to-Operating Profits 47.76$ 0% -$

Forward P/E 51.06$ 10% 5.11$

Forward Price-to-Sales 48.51$ 15% 7.28$

Free Cash Flow 37.70$ 75% 28.28$

Final Valuation 40.66$

Price as of 11/22/10 49.87$

Estimated Upside / Downside -18.47%

Investment Thesis:

Morningstar continues to build-out its global distribution platform to leverage a wide-

variety of products and services across a fragmented market. However, the company

continues to struggle to sustainably generate revenue growth that is commensurate

with the assigned value of its proprietary databases.

Page 63: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Market Price: $30.75Forward P/E: 10.36Market Cap: $737MMLTM Revenue: $912MMLTM EPS: $3.20

Cal-Maine Foods (CALM)

63

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Applied Investment Management XXXI

Page 64: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Overview

64

• Largest producer and marketer of shell eggs in the

US

• Sell primarily to grocery stores and other food

companies

• In 2010, sold 805 million dozen shell eggs, 18%

of domestic shell egg consumption

• Largest geographic presence in Southeast

• Only publically company in egg production

Applied Investment Management XXXI

Page 65: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

What Drives the Business?

$-

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Ave

rage

Se

llin

g P

rice

Sales Volume Average Price

Correlation of…•Egg Prices and Sales = .97•Egg Prices and EBIT = .95•Egg Prices and Margins = .90•ROE and Margins = .93•Feed Prices to Egg Prices = .92

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 TTM

Total Debt Capital/Total Capital

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 TTM

Cash Flow/Total Debt

High volatility in sales (27%) and EBIT (127%) growth, but low volatility in volume growth (4%)

65Applied Investment Management XXXI

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Drivers of Future Growth

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Increasing Market Share

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Trend Towards Specialty

% of Sales Dollars

% of Volume

66

Blue Shading indicates Cal-Maine Major Market Areas

Applied Investment Management XXXI

Page 67: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

CALM Recommendation - BUY

Investment Thesis:

Cal-Maine’s extensive investments in advanced facilities have allowed it to become a

low cost leader. Given the company’s low financial risk and the opportunity for above

average growth through geographic expansion and the trend toward specialty eggs, the

analyst sees an upside even with moderately decreasing egg prices.

67

Valuation Method Value Weight Weighted Value

Discounted Cash Flow 47.40$ 30% 14.22$

P/B Multiple 35.20 40% 14.08

P/E Multiple 32.02 20% 6.40

Dividend Discount Model 25.90 10% 2.59

Final Valuation 37.29$

Price as of 11/22/10 30.75$

Estimated Upside 21.28%

Applied Investment Management XXXI

Page 68: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

comScore, Inc. (SCOR)

68Applied Investment Management XXXI

$0.00

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

$30.00

Market Price $22.00

Forward P/E 81x

Market Cap $691B

2010 Revenue $174B

2010 EPS ($0.02)

Page 69: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Business Overview

69Applied Investment Management XXXI

• Global panel of more than 2 million internet users

• Projects consumer online behavior for the total online population

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EPS Heuristic Valuation

70Applied Investment Management XXXI

• Street consistently

overestimates earnings

potential

• Significant negative surprise

history

• Utilized heuristic valuation as

a guideline to the financial

valuation

• Heuristic method implies

($0.13) per share for 2010

- 0% weight

- High operating leverage

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

Quarterly EPS: 3Q'07 - 3Q'10

Quarterly Earnings Surprise

Mean Actual Surprise

Sep-10 0.01 (0.07) (800%)

Jun-10 0.04 0.03 (30%)

Mar-10 0.01 0.01 (29%)

Dec-09 0.04 0.05 14%

Sep-09 0.05 0.03 (37%)

Jun-09 0.02 0.04 74%

Mar-09 0.01 0.01 (29%)

$ $

Page 71: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

EPS Final Valuation

Applied Investment Management XXXI 71

• Utilized an earnings forecast model assuming 2010 revenue growth of 31% and 30% in 2011

• Catalysts

– Recent acquisitions expand global footprint

– Larger market opportunity ($2.7bn vs. $800mm previously)

• Street Misperceptions

– We believe margin expansion will be somewhat limited near-term as SCOR works on integrating its 4 recent acquisitions

– Slow global economic recovery will adversely affect overly optimistic foreign growth potential (currently 19.5% of total revenues)

– Competitive market for digital marketing intelligence – Google, Nielsen, Compete

AIM Estimate

FY END Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

2010 $0.01 $0.03 ($0.07) $0.01 ($0.02)

2011E $0.04 $0.06 $0.04 $0.08 $0.22

Analyst Consensus

FY END Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

2010 $0.01 $0.03 ($0.07) $0.01 ($0.02)

2011E $0.08 $0.06 $0.08 $0.10 $0.32

Page 72: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

SCOR Recommendation – Sell

72Applied Investment Management XXXI

Valuation Method Value Weight Weighted Value

Forward P/E 23.90$ 10% 2.39$

Forward Price-to-Sales 23.60 10% 2.36

Free Cash Flow 23.00$ 80% 18.40$

Final Valuation 23.15$

Price as of 11/23/10 21.69$

Estimated Upside 6.73%

Investment Thesis:

Despite sales growth potential, we believe margin expansion will be limited near-term

while international sales projections remain overly optimistic. Although we see 6.73%

upside, our analysts have discovered more lucrative investment opportunities.

Page 73: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Cisco Systems (CSCO)

Applied Investment Management XXXI 73

m

200 m

400 m

600 m

800 m

1000 m

1200 m

1400 m

1600 m

1800 m

2000 m

$15.00

$17.00

$19.00

$21.00

$23.00

$25.00

$27.00

$29.00

Market Price $19.56

Forward P/E 12x

Market Cap $108B

LTM Revenue $42B

LTM EPS $1.41

Page 74: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Company Overview

Applied Investment Management XXXI 74

54%

20%

11%

11%4%

2010 Revenue by Region

United States and

Canada

European Markets

Emerging Markets

Asia Pacific

Japan

2010 Revenue by Segment

Routers & Switches Advanced Technologies

Connect >Routers & Switches

Wireless

50%

Secure >Network Storage

Security & Surveillance

Communicate >Voice & Video Conferencing

Service >Supported solutions

Other Products Service

24% 7% 19%

Page 75: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

NEWS:

•Beat 1Q earnings estimates but gave poor outlook

•Public sector cut IT spending

•Predict sales will grow 3-5% in next quarter (down from 12-

17%)

REACTION:

•Shares fell 15% and Cisco lost $23 billion in market cap

•Investors seem to be perceiving a stalling tech sector

Recent Earnings Announcement

75Applied Investment Management XXXI

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Additional Assumptions

WACC: 7.38%

Terminal growth rate: 2.5%

Share Repurchase:

Forecast additional stock repurchase of $18 billion over five years

Final DCF Valuation:

$25.28

Revenue Projections

76Applied Investment Management XXXI

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Revenue Growth

Routers 2% 4% 5% 5% 5%

Switches 4% 9% 10% 10% 8%

Advanced Technologies 8% 11% 14% 12% 12%

Other Products 15% 22% 25% 20% 17%

Service 8% 10% 10% 10% 10%

Total Revenue 6% 10% 11% 11% 10%

•Maturing Routing business

•High growth in Advanced Technologies as network security becomes more important

•Video related products will drive future growth

• Solid growth in service segment—tempered by centralized data centers

Page 77: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Investment Thesis:

CSCO Recommendation - Buy

77Applied Investment Management XXXI

Cisco is a dominant market leader aimed at retaining that position through organic

and acquisition-based growth. The recent drop in the stock price is largely an

overreaction and allowed us to buy cheap and position ourselves for substantial long-

term returns.

Valuation Method Value Weight Weighted Value

Forward P/E 26.88$ 15% 4.03$

Forward Price-to-Sales 30.84 15% 4.63

Price-to-Book 31.82 0% -

Price-to-Operating Income 23.69 15% 3.55

Free Cash Flow 25.28$ 55% 13.90$

Final Valuation 26.12$

Price as of 11/22/10 19.56$

Estimated Upside 33.51%

Page 78: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Global Payments Inc. (GPN)

78Applied Investment Management XXXI

Market Price $41.03

Forward P/E 15.31x

Market Cap $3.27B

LTM Revenue $1,672MM

LTM EPS $2.54

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

$55

De

c-0

9

Jan

-10

Feb

-10

Mar

-10

Ap

r-1

0

May

-10

Jun

-10

Jul-

10

Au

g-1

0

Sep

-10

Oct

-10

No

v-1

0

Page 79: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

The Mechanics of a Credit Card Transaction

Applied Investment Management XXXI 79

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Global Payments Overview

Applied Investment Management XXXI 80

Key Differentiators

End Market and Geographic Diversity

•Leading market share among independent service providers

•Only true worldwide player in the processing sector

•Long standing relationships with card associations (Visa, MasterCard, and Discover)

•Unlike card issuers, Global Payments does not bear customer default risk

•Demonstrated ability to create value through international acquisitions

7%

19%

19%55%

FY 2010 Sales by Geography

Asia

Europe

Canada

US

FY Ends May 31st

FY 2010 Sales by End Market

Page 81: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Global Payments -Global Opportunities

Leadership in Growing Markets Card Penetration by Market

81Applied Investment Management XXXI

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

US Hong Kong

Canada UK India China Czech Republic

Russia

Credit Cards /GDP ($ Thousand) Market Share Rank Card Vol. Growth

Eastern Europe 50% 1st 19%

Asia Pacific 25% 1st 18%

Russia 20% 1st 33%

United States 12% 6th*

UK 20% 3nd

Canada 20% 2nd

*Highest among independent processors

•Key acquisitions have provided Global

Payments an unmatched market share in the

most promising emerging markets

•Emerging markets remain underpenetrated in

financial services

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Multiples Analysis: P/E

82Applied Investment Management XXXI

Qtr

GPN

Price EPS Implied Fwd PE

Heartland

Payments FWD PE % of HPY S&P Fwd PE % of S&P

Q1 09 46.4 $0.71 21.7x 53.7x 40.4% 16.7x 129.6%

Q2 09 44.68 $0.57 21.2x NA NA 11.8x 180.0%

Q3 09 32.68 $0.43 14.5x NA NA 9.7x 150.3%

Q4 09 33.31 $0.43 13.9x NA NA 10.3x 134.8%

Q1 10 37.37 $0.68 14.7x NA NA 11.6x 126.8%

Q2 10 46.62 $0.71 18.4x 21.9x 83.8% 12.5x 147.1%

Q3 10 53.78 $0.58 22.0x 13.8x 159.4% 13.3x 165.3%

Q4 10 45.5 $0.58 18.1x 22.7x 80.0% 12.0x 151.1%

Q1 11 36.52 $0.67 14.0x 17.3x 81.1% 14.0x 100.6%

Q2 11 (E) 37.58 $0.61 14.0x

Q3 11 (E) $0.65

Q4 11 (E) $0.67

Q1 12 (E) $0.75

Average Since 2009 17.6x 25.9x 88.9% 12.4x 142.8%

Average Since 2007 20.6x 28.0x 82.7% 18.5x 127.1%

Subjective Implied Forward PE Ratio 18.5xNext 12 Month Projected EPS $2.68

Implied Intrinsic Share Value $49.58

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Multiples Analysis: P/BV & P/Rev

83Applied Investment Management XXXI

Price/Fwd Price/Fwd Price/Fwd

Revenue Price/BV Revenue Price/BV Revenue Price/BV

Q1 09 2.4x 3.3x 0.4x 4.1x 6.9x 19.4x

Q2 09 2.3x 3.4x 0.2x 2.0x 4.5x 11.8x

Q3 09 1.6x 2.9x 0.2x 1.7x 3.6x 8.3x

Q4 09 1.6x 2.6x 0.2x 2.3x 4.1x 8.1x

Q1 10 1.8x 3.7x 0.3x 2.7x 4.0x 6.7x

Q2 10 2.3x 4.1x 0.3x 4.0x 4.8x 7.5x

Q3 10 2.7x 4.7x 0.4x 5.3x 6.0x 8.7x

Q4 10 2.3x 4.3x 0.3x 4.0x 5.8x 8.0x

Q1 11 1.8x 3.3x 0.3x 3.4x 4.4x 5.3x

Average Since 2009 2.1x 3.6x 0.3x 3.2x 4.9x 9.3x

Overall Average 2.3x 3.5x 0.4x 4.5x 4.7x 8.7x

GPN Subjective Implied Price/ Fwd Revenue 2.5x

GPN Forward Revenue/Share 20.7

Implied Intrinsic Share Value $51.71

GPN Subjective Implied Price/Book 3.5

GPN Book/Share 3.3

Implied Intrinsic Share Value $43.98

Average of P/Revenue & P/Book Approaches $47.84

Global Payments (GPN) MasterCard (MA)Heartland Payments (HPY)

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GPN Recommendation – Buy

84Applied Investment Management XXXI

Investment Thesis:

The market’s failure to recognize the company’s international growth potential, as

well as a broad overreaction to regulatory headwinds, has driven the stock below its

intrinsic value.

Valuation Method Value Weight Weighted Value

Forward Price/Earnings 49.58$ 30% 14.87$

Traditional Multiples 47.84 30% 14.35

Free Cash Flow Model 45.75 40% 18.30

Final Valuation 47.53$

Price as of 11/22/2010 41.03$

Estimated Upside 15.83%

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Symmetry Medical (SMA)

85Applied Investment Management XXXI

Market Price $8.63

Forward P/E 13x

Market Cap $310MM

LTM Revenue $370MM

LTM EPS $0.56

Page 86: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

Business Overview

86Applied Investment Management XXXI

Instruments

46%

Implants

29%

Cases

19%

Other

6%

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Mill

ion

s

Revenues

Instruments

Implants

Cases

Other

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Discovery

Contacts

• Steve Rozow: Zimmer VP Global Manufacturing

• Fred Hite: Symmetry CFO

• Dave Bickel: Lake City Bank VP

Findings

• New Product Launch

• Regulation

• Competent Management

87Applied Investment Management XXXI

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SMA Recommendation – Buy

88Applied Investment Management XXXI

Investment Thesis:

Smaller suppliers will not be able to cost-effectively comply with new healthcare

regulations, causing orthopedic OEMs to shift their business to Symmetry—the

dominant player in a fragmented sector.

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NetApp, Inc. (NTAP)

89

Market Price $51.46

Forward P/E 25.63x

Market Cap $18.44B

FY 2010 Revenue $4.23B

FY 2010 EPS $1.39

Applied Investment Management XXXI

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

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Company Background

Applied Investment Management XXXI 90

Segments and Geographies

Segmented Income Statement

2010 2009 2008 2007 2006

Hardware

Revenue $2,381 $2,152 $2,242 $2,085 $1,577

% Growth 10.64% -4.01% 7.53% 32.21% -COGS 976 1,007 938 815 616

Gross Profit $1,405 $1,145 $1,304 $1,270 $961

Gross Margin 59.01% 53.21% 58.16% 60.91% 60.94%

Software

Revenue $679 $618 $486 $341 $239

% Growth 9.87% 27.16% 42.52% 42.68% -COGS 12 9 8 8 5

Gross Profit $667 $609 $478 $333 $234

Gross Margin 98.23% 98.54% 98.35% 97.65% 97.91%

Services

Revenue $870 $764 $573 $377 $249

% Growth 13.87% 33.33% 51.99% 51.41% -

COGS 423 400 342 185 135

Gross Profit $447 $364 $231 $192 $114

Gross Margin 51.38% 47.64% 40.31% 50.93% 45.78%

•NTAP’s revenues are about equally split between

US and International

•30% of total revenues are from Europe

•Asia represents significant growth opportunity

•High barriers to entry though

•Distribution channel is indirectly scaled

•Mostly hardware, IBM represents main

distributor

Market Share

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Company Background: The Product

Applied Investment Management XXXI 91

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Technical Indicators: Moving Averages

92Applied Investment Management XXXI

Signal: Ambiguous/Bearish

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Technical Indicators: MACD Histogram

93Applied Investment Management XXXI

Signal: Bearish

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Technical Indicators: Dynamic Support and Resistance

94Applied Investment Management XXXI

Signal: Ambiguous

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Summary

Applied Investment Management XXXI 95

Dynamic Support and Resistance

MACD Histogram

Traditional MA Ambiguous/Bearish

Bearish

Ambiguous

Technical Analysis Summary

Conclusion: Slightly Bearish

Page 96: Advisory Board PresentationApple, Canadian National Railway Paychex, Greenbrier Int. Game Tech., Urban Outfitters Chubb, Acme Packet ... • SWOT analysis –Industry analysis –What

NTAP Recommendation – No Buy

96Applied Investment Management XXXI

Valuation Method Value Weight Weighted Value

Forward Price-to-Sales vs. EMC 52.61$ 5% 2.63$

Price-to-Book 52.61 5% 2.63

Forward P/E vs. S&P 500 49.64 15% 7.45

Forward P/E vs. EMC 48.66 20% 9.73

DCF 49.72$ 55% 27.35$

Final Valuation 49.79$

Price as of 11/22/10 52.22$

Estimated Upside -4.66%

Investment Thesis:

Given the slight down side based on the quantitative methods, technical analysis shows that

there may be some irrational bullish sentiment moving the stock. In a market that is only

expected to grow at 8% y-o-y, the optimistic 20% top-line growth assumptions used in the

DCF were still not enough to justify a buy.

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Portfolio Performance

97Applied Investment Management XXXI

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98

Performance Analysis

• Portfolio Return, Risk and Performance Metrics

– Historical Returns

– Risk Adjusted Performance Measures

– Attribution Analysis

– Top 5 / Bottom 5 Performing Stocks

– Portfolio Transactions

– Final Portfolio

Applied Investment Management XXXI

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99

Return Comparison to Benchmarks

Applied Investment Management XXXI

24.63%

-0.92%

4.45%

9.92%

16.52%

-6.49%

1.73%

6.38%

20.07%

-5.49%

2.29%

6.76%

26.58%

-3.91%

3.07%

6.93%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

1 Year 3 Years 5 Years Since Inception

AIM Portfolio S&P 500 HBI Russell 2000

Tota

l A

nn

uali

zed

Ret

urn

(%

)

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Applied Investment Management XXXI 100

Cumulative Wealth

$4,067.67

$2,664.47 $2,773.50

$2,549.63

$-

$500.00

$1,000.00

$1,500.00

$2,000.00

$2,500.00

$3,000.00

$3,500.00

$4,000.00

$4,500.00

$5,000.00 $1,000 invested at inception of portfolio

AIM Portfolio HBI Russell 2000 S&P 500

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101

Sharpe Ratio Explained

• Sharpe Ratio

– Measures excess return (or risk premium) over a risk-free

portfolio per unit of total risk (standard deviation)

– Explains whether the excess returns are from investment

decision efforts or higher total risk

– Higher ratios indicate better performance

• Formula

Average Portfolio Return – Risk Free Rate

Portfolio Standard Deviation

Applied Investment Management XXXI

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102

Sharpe Ratio Comparison

Applied Investment Management XXXI

1.48

0.05

0.21

0.420.42

(0.13)(0.14)

0.25

1.03

(0.16)

0.10

0.43

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Inception

AIM

S&P 500

HBI

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103

Jensen’s Alpha Explained

• Jensen’s Alpha

– A performance measure that adjusts for systematic risk

– Measures the excess return over the expected return as given

by the Capital Asset Pricing Model

– Explains whether the excess returns are from investment

decisions or higher systematic risk

– Higher values indicate better performance

• Formula

(Portfolio Return) – (Risk Free Rate + β x Market Risk Premium)

Applied Investment Management XXXI

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104

Jensen’s Alpha Comparison

Applied Investment Management XXXI

8.96

6.53

3.00 3.43

2.24 1.86

0.76 0.13

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Inception

% AIM

HBI

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Attribution Analysis

Applied Investment Management XXXI 105

Management Effect

Allocation Effect: Industry

Weightings

Selection Effect: Stock

Picking

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Applied Investment Management XXXI 106

Attribution Analysis

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

1 Year 3 Years 5 Years

% O

ver

/Un

der

per

form

an

ce

Allocation Effect Selection Effect Management Effect

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Applied Investment Management XXXI 107

Attribution Analysis

Financial

ServicesHealthcare Utilities

Consumer

Discr.

Consumer

StaplesEnergy

Information

TechMaterials Telecom Industrials

Allocation Effect 1.2% 0.1% -0.2% -0.3% -0.4% 0.2% -0.5% 0.3% -0.2% -0.2%

Selection Effect 0.0% -0.1% 0.2% 1.9% 0.4% -0.3% -0.7% -0.4% 0.0% 0.1%

Management Effect 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% -1.1% -0.2% -0.2% -0.1%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

% O

ver

/Un

der

per

form

an

ce

5 Year Annualized Attribution

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Applied Investment Management XXXI 108

Attribution Analysis

Financial

ServicesHealthcare Utilities

Consumer

Discr.

Consumer

StaplesEnergy

Information

TechMaterials Telecom Industrials

Allocation Effect 1.2% 0.1% -0.2% -0.3% -0.4% 0.2% -0.5% 0.3% -0.2% -0.2%

Selection Effect 0.0% -0.1% 0.2% 1.9% 0.4% -0.3% -0.7% -0.4% 0.0% 0.1%

Management Effect 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% -1.1% -0.2% -0.2% -0.1%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

% O

ver

/Un

der

per

form

an

ce

5 Year Annualized Attribution

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Consumer Discretionary 5-Year Annual Returns

23.2

9.5 9.6

3.6

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

AIM Weight AIM Return S&P 500

Weight

S&P Returns

%

Consumer Discretionary Weight

and Return

Applied Investment Management XXXI 109

-0.3

1.9

1.7

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Allocation Effect Selection Effect Management Effect

%

Consumer Discretionary Sector

Performance Attribution

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Applied Investment Management XXXI 110

Attribution Analysis

Financial

ServicesHealthcare Utilities

Consumer

Discr.

Consumer

StaplesEnergy

Information

TechMaterials Telecom Industrials

Allocation Effect 1.2% 0.1% -0.2% -0.3% -0.4% 0.2% -0.5% 0.3% -0.2% -0.2%

Selection Effect 0.0% -0.1% 0.2% 1.9% 0.4% -0.3% -0.7% -0.4% 0.0% 0.1%

Management Effect 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% -1.1% -0.2% -0.2% -0.1%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

% O

ver

/Un

der

per

form

an

ce

5 Year Annualized Attribution

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Information Technology 5-Year Annual Returns

12.2

-5.7

16.6

5.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

AIM Weight AIM Return S&P 500

Weight

S&P Returns

%

Information Technology Weight

and Return

Applied Investment Management XXXI 111

-0.5

-0.7

-1.1-1.2

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

Allocation Effect Selection Effect Management Effect

%

Information Technology Sector

Performance Attribution

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112

Top 5 and Bottom 5 Performers

Determining Returns

– Returns for all stocks held > 1 year are 12-month

returns based on close 11/29/2010

– Returns for all stocks held < 1 year are holding

period returns based on purchase on 4/15/2010 and

close on 11/29/2010

Applied Investment Management XXXI

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113

Top 5 Performers

ComscoreHansen Natural

Potash Corporation

Davita Coca Cola

Returns 48.7% 31.1% 19.8% 19.1% 16.5%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Applied Investment Management XXXI

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114

Bottom 5 Performers

*Indicates stock held < 1 year

Brandywine Realty Trust*

General Dynamics*

Insituform*Gilead

Sciences*

International Game

Technology*

Returns -13.9% -14.3% -15.4% -17.7% -21.5%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

Applied Investment Management XXXI

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115

Portfolio Turnover

Applied Investment Management XXXI

Buy Sell Hold•Alaska Air Group •Brandywine Realty •Abbott Labs

•Archer Daniels Midland •ComScore •Activision Blizzard

•Cal-Maine Foods •DaVita •Alliant Tech Systems

•Chevron •Diamond Foods •Apple

•Cisco Systems •Morningstar •Chubb

•FedEx •NeuStar •Coca-Cola

•Global Payments •Paychex •EcoLab

•J. Crew •Republic Services •General Dynamics

•Symmetry Medical •Walgreens •Gilead Sciences

•Google

•Hansen Natural

•Insituform

•Intl. Game Tech

•Newmont Mining

•Perrigo

•Potash

•United Health Group

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116

Portfolio Purchases

Applied Investment Management XXXI

Stock TickerDecision Day

Price

Intrinsic

ValueUpside

FedEx FDX $87.34 $98.67 13%

Archer Daniels Midland ADM $29.67 $34.33 16%

Global Payments GPN $41.03 $47.53 16%

J. Crew JCG $37.65 $45.06 20%

Cal-Maine Foods CALM $30.75 $37.29 21%

Alaska Air Group ALK $55.45 $67.64 22%

Symmetry Medical SMA $8.63 $10.70 24%

Chevron CVX $83.45 $108.72 30%

Cisco Systems CSCO $19.56 $26.12 34%

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117

Portfolio Divestitures

Applied Investment Management XXXI

Stock TickerDecision Day

Price

Intrinsic

Value

Upside/

Downside

Morningstar MORN $49.87 $40.66 (18%)

Walgreens WAG $34.89 $29.20 (16%)

Diamond Foods DMND $48.22 $41.60 (16%)

DaVita DVA $73.28 $65.28 (11%)

Republic Services RSG $28.16 $28.74 2%

Comscore SCOR $21.27 $23.15 6%

Paychex PAYX $28.49 $31.30 10%

Brandywine Realty BDN $10.96 $12.31 12%

NeuStar NSR $26.63 $30.00 13%

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Current Portfolio

Applied Investment Management XXXI 118

Stock Ticker New Weight Market Value Stock Ticker New Weight

Market

Value

Apple AAPL 6.10% 316,870$ Gilead Sciences GILD 3.92% 203,830$

Abbott Labs ABT 3.76% 195,258$ Google GOOG 3.81% 197,917$

Archer Daniels Midland ADM 3.72% 193,496$ Global Payments GPN 3.89% 201,880$

Alaska Air Group ALK 2.99% 155,400$ Hansen Natural HANS 3.07% 159,390$

Alliant Tech Systems ATK 2.97% 154,434$ Intl. Game Tech IGT 3.74% 194,250$

Activision Blizzard ATVI 4.02% 208,972$ Insituform INSU 3.75% 194,565$

Cal-Maine Foods CALM 3.82% 198,592$ J. Crew JCG 2.10% 109,125$

Chubb CB 3.74% 194,072$ Coca-Cola KO 3.78% 196,509$

Cisco Systems CSCO 5.05% 262,440$ Newmont Mining NEM 3.58% 185,888$

Chevron CVX 5.82% 302,253$ Potash POT 3.88% 201,390$

EcoLab ECL 3.74% 194,240$ Perrigo PRGO 3.76% 195,232$

FedEx FDX 4.06% 210,657$ Symmetry Medical SMA 4.90% 254,370$

General Dynamics GD 2.04% 106,096$ United Health Group UNH 3.87% 201,245$

0.13% 6,582$

TOTAL 100.00% 5,194,953$

Cash & Hedge

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119

Current Portfolio

Energy Materials Industrials Health CareFinancial Services

Consumer Discr.

Consumer Staples

Information Tech

Utilities Telecom

AIM XXX 0% 8% 14% 19% 7% 6% 16% 23% 0% 0%

AIM XXXI 6% 11% 16% 20% 8% 6% 14% 19% 0% 0%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

We

igh

t

Sector Allocation- AIM XXX vs. AIM XXXI

Applied Investment Management XXXI

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120

Current Portfolio

Health Care Materials IndustrialsConsumer

StaplesInformation

TechConsumer

Discr.Energy

Financial Services

Utilities Telecom

AIM XXXI 20% 11% 16% 14% 19% 6% 6% 8% 0% 0%

S&P 500 12% 4% 11% 11% 19% 10% 11% 16% 4% 3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

We

igh

t

Sector Allocation- AIM XXXI vs. S&P 500

Applied Investment Management XXXI

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General Information

121Applied Investment Management XXXI

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Chicago Trip

• Alliance Capital (Large Cap Growth Equities)

• Rail-Splitter ( Long/Short Hedge Fund)

• Goldman Sachs (Investment Management)

• Bain & Company (Strategic Consulting)

122Applied Investment Management XXXI

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Chicago Trip

• Alliance Capital (Large Cap Growth Equities)

- Hosted by Joe Elegante and Jason Ley

- Introduced Alliance’s growth equities investment

philosophy and research process

• Rail-Splitter ( Long/Short Hedge Fund)

- Hosted by John Souter

- Discussed research and investing approaches

123Applied Investment Management XXXI

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Chicago Trip

• Dinner at Maggiano’s Little Italy

124Applied Investment Management XXXI

- Attended by over 40 AIM

alumni in the Chicago area

- Offered words of wisdom

about careers and ways to

enjoy senior year

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New York Trip

• S-Squared Technology (Technology Equity)

• Alliance Bernstein (Wealth Management)

• Blackstone (Private Equity)

• Brigade Capital (Distressed Credit)

• Tegean Capital (Hedge Fund)

• Viking Global (Long/Short Equity)

125Applied Investment Management XXXI

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Tegean Capital

• Thomas Maheras, ex-chairman and co-

CEO of Citi Markets and Banking

• Introduced unique investment strategies

and provided perspectives on financial

crisis

126Applied Investment Management XXXI

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S Squared Technology and Viking Global

• S Squared Technology

-Discussed how to conduct research and leverage technical

expertise into security selection

-Contest involving technology stock return estimates from

2000 to present

• Viking Global

- Hosted by Jim Parsons

- Interactive case study of Coinstar

127Applied Investment Management XXXI

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Special Presentations

• Scott Malpass

– Notre Dame endowment pool asset allocation

• Ed Trubac

– Key questions for 2010

– Current economic overview

– Important economic trends for AIM portfolio

128Applied Investment Management XXXI

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Guest Speakers

• Doug Pardon, Brigade Capital Management– Distressed debt markets

– Criteria he uses when assessing potential investments

• Nick Parrish, Greg Salter, & Emily King, Grosvenor Capital Management– Hedge fund industry overview

– Unique advantages of investing in hedge funds.

– Associate program at Grosvenor

• Jon Leisinger, Timothy Scallen, & Robert Hellauer, Sankaty Advisors– Work done at Sankaty and the opportunities at the firm

• Jim Rohr, CEO of PNC Financial Services Group– Financial regulation

– State of the economy

– His responsibility to stakeholders

– Challenges of being CEO at a Fortune 500 company

129Applied Investment Management XXXI

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Newsletter

• Objectives

– Allows AIM alumni to stay up to date

– Provides quarterly overview of present portfolio

• Current newsletter points of interest

– New Portfolio

– AIM alumni updates

– Chicago trip review

– Quick economic snapshots

130Applied Investment Management XXXI

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AIM Website

http://aim.nd.edu/

Applied Investment Management XXXI 131

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Thank You

• We would like to extend a special thank you to:

– Professors Langley, Reilly, and Trubac for their support,

guidance, and knowledge

– Scott Malpass, the Notre Dame Investment Office, and the AIM

Advisory Board for the opportunity to participate in such a

unique and rewarding class

– Rachel Karnafel for administrative support

• Post-presentation Agenda

– Food & refreshments

– Questions from the AIM analysts for the advisory board

132Applied Investment Management XXXI

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Current Portfolio

Stock Ticker New Weight Market Value Stock Ticker New Weight

Market

Value

Apple AAPL 6.10% 316,870$ Gilead Sciences GILD 3.92% 203,830$

Abbott Labs ABT 3.76% 195,258$ Google GOOG 3.81% 197,917$

Archer Daniels Midland ADM 3.72% 193,496$ Global Payments GPN 3.89% 201,880$

Alaska Air Group ALK 2.99% 155,400$ Hansen Natural HANS 3.07% 159,390$

Alliant Tech Systems ATK 2.97% 154,434$ Intl. Game Tech IGT 3.74% 194,250$

Activision Blizzard ATVI 4.02% 208,972$ Insituform INSU 3.75% 194,565$

Cal-Maine Foods CALM 3.82% 198,592$ J. Crew JCG 2.10% 109,125$

Chubb CB 3.74% 194,072$ Coca-Cola KO 3.78% 196,509$

Cisco Systems CSCO 5.05% 262,440$ Newmont Mining NEM 3.58% 185,888$

Chevron CVX 5.82% 302,253$ Potash POT 3.88% 201,390$

EcoLab ECL 3.74% 194,240$ Perrigo PRGO 3.76% 195,232$

FedEx FDX 4.06% 210,657$ Symmetry Medical SMA 4.90% 254,370$

General Dynamics GD 2.04% 106,096$ United Health Group UNH 3.87% 201,245$

0.13% 6,582$

TOTAL 100.00% 5,194,953$

Cash & Hedge

Applied Investment Management XXXI


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