Adapting to climate Adapting to climate change in eastern New change in eastern New ZealandZealand
Today’s programmeToday’s programme
Global changeGlobal change
Source: www.igbp.kva.se
The carbon cycleThe carbon cycle
Source: www.igbp.kva.se
The The greenhouse greenhouse effecteffect
Past and recent climatePast and recent climate
Source: National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA)
Present climate Present climate variabilityvariability
Source: National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA)
Global climate changeGlobal climate change
• Average global Average global temperatures are temperatures are projected to increase by projected to increase by between 1.4 and 5.8°C by between 1.4 and 5.8°C by 2100. The amount of 2100. The amount of increase will strongly increase will strongly depend on steps that are depend on steps that are taken globally to reduce taken globally to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. greenhouse gas emissions.
• There is more uncertainty There is more uncertainty with changes in rainfall.with changes in rainfall.
Source: www.ipcc.ch
Projected changes in Projected changes in average temperature and average temperature and precipitationprecipitation
Source: National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA)
Some key pointsSome key points• We are experiencing unprecedented global We are experiencing unprecedented global
changes such as population growth, changes such as population growth, deforestation, loss of genetic diversity and deforestation, loss of genetic diversity and increases in greenhouse gases.increases in greenhouse gases.
• The consequence of increased greenhouse The consequence of increased greenhouse gases is change in the natural greenhouse gases is change in the natural greenhouse effect leading to climate change.effect leading to climate change.
• There is clear evidence that climate change is There is clear evidence that climate change is happening.happening.
• Future climate will result from a combination Future climate will result from a combination of an underlying warming trend and on-going of an underlying warming trend and on-going natural variations.natural variations.
• While some trends (e.g. higher average While some trends (e.g. higher average temperatures) are emerging, there is a lot of temperatures) are emerging, there is a lot of uncertainty with other factors (e.g. changes uncertainty with other factors (e.g. changes in rainfall).in rainfall).
Projected changesProjected changesin eastern New Zealandin eastern New Zealand
• It is important to be aware that It is important to be aware that prediction of regional changes in prediction of regional changes in climate is much less certain than climate is much less certain than predictions of broader scale predictions of broader scale changes.changes.
Bay of PlentyBay of Plenty
Hawke’s BayHawke’s Bay
Nelson and MarlboroughNelson and Marlborough
CanterburyCanterbury
Projected impactsProjected impactsin eastern New Zealandin eastern New Zealand
• There could be more extremes There could be more extremes such as prolonged dry periods and such as prolonged dry periods and intense rainfall events, leading to intense rainfall events, leading to more droughts and floods.more droughts and floods.
• Security of water supply will be Security of water supply will be the biggest issue in eastern the biggest issue in eastern regions.regions.
• Biosecurity challenges will Biosecurity challenges will increase in all areas, with increase in all areas, with southward spread of new and southward spread of new and existing plant and animal pests.existing plant and animal pests.
• Changes in biodiversity will occur.Changes in biodiversity will occur.
• Changes in pasture composition Changes in pasture composition will occur, with southward spread will occur, with southward spread of sub-tropical grass species.of sub-tropical grass species.
• It’s not all bad news. There will It’s not all bad news. There will be increased opportunities to be increased opportunities to diversify into new crops. Water diversify into new crops. Water will be the key.will be the key.
Adapting to climate change Adapting to climate change will be one of the world’s will be one of the world’s major challenges of the 21major challenges of the 21stst centurycentury
• ‘‘Stop debating whether Stop debating whether global warming is global warming is happening. The priority happening. The priority now is to start preparing for now is to start preparing for its consequences, be they its consequences, be they droughts and heatwaves or droughts and heatwaves or floods and harsh winters. floods and harsh winters. That is the message from That is the message from meteorologists, who say meteorologists, who say adapting to climate change adapting to climate change will be one of the world’s will be one of the world’s major challenges of the major challenges of the 21st century.’21st century.’
Source: New Scientist, 13 September Source: New Scientist, 13 September 20032003
What is adaptation?What is adaptation?
• Adaptation is what people and Adaptation is what people and communities can be doing communities can be doing through positive actions and through positive actions and interactions to address the likely interactions to address the likely effects of climate change.effects of climate change.
Why adaptation, and Why adaptation, and how?how?• Human’s have adapted to change for Human’s have adapted to change for
millenia. Local catastrophes have millenia. Local catastrophes have occurred.occurred.
• Change in the future is inevitable. The Change in the future is inevitable. The challenge is that the rate of change is challenge is that the rate of change is unprecedented.unprecedented.
• The issues are no longer local.The issues are no longer local.• Doing nothing is not an option. We need Doing nothing is not an option. We need
to be smart and proactive.to be smart and proactive.• We can be proactive in developing We can be proactive in developing
greater resilience.greater resilience.
Why farmers?Why farmers?•Climate change will bring Climate change will bring
challenges and opportunities for challenges and opportunities for everyone.everyone.
•Farmers are the managers of a Farmers are the managers of a significant portion of our land and significant portion of our land and water resources.water resources.
•Farmers are adaptors.Farmers are adaptors.•Their adaptive capacity needs to Their adaptive capacity needs to
be supported for the benefit of all.be supported for the benefit of all.
Group workGroup work
• Adaptation at the micro (farm) scaleAdaptation at the micro (farm) scale– Consider present and future impacts Consider present and future impacts
(mapping exercise)(mapping exercise)– Develop the micro adaptation picture Develop the micro adaptation picture
(change the farm picture)(change the farm picture)
What you can doWhat you can do (and what (and what proactive farmers are already proactive farmers are already doing)doing)
• ‘‘Success comes from making a Success comes from making a decision to act and getting the decision to act and getting the timing right.’timing right.’
• Focus on a flexible, balanced, Focus on a flexible, balanced, approach that addresses the approach that addresses the economy, ecology and social economy, ecology and social well-being of the farm.well-being of the farm.
What proactive farmers are What proactive farmers are doingdoing
WaterWaterWaterWater
PasturePasturePasturePasture
StockStockStockStock
InfrastructureInfrastructureInfrastructureInfrastructure
WasteWasteWasteWaste
EnergyEnergyEnergyEnergy
CroppingCroppingCroppingCropping
SoilSoilSoilSoil
DiversificationDiversificationDiversificationDiversification
TreesTreesTreesTrees
FARMFARMRESILIENCERESILIENCE
FARMFARMRESILIENCERESILIENCE
Information and supportInformation and support• Sustainable Farming Fund, www.maf.govt/sffSustainable Farming Fund, www.maf.govt/sff
• Sustainable Management Fund, www.smf.govt.nzSustainable Management Fund, www.smf.govt.nz
• Regional Council land management information and supportRegional Council land management information and support– Environment Bay of Plenty, Environment Bay of Plenty, www.envbop.govt.nzwww.envbop.govt.nz, click on Land, click on Land– Hawke’s Bay Regional Council, www.hbrc.govt.nz, click on LandHawke’s Bay Regional Council, www.hbrc.govt.nz, click on Land– Environment Canterbury, Environment Canterbury,
www.ecan.govt.nz/Our+Environment/Landwww.ecan.govt.nz/Our+Environment/Land– For other Regional Councils go to the Local Government website For other Regional Councils go to the Local Government website
to find relevant website and contact details: to find relevant website and contact details: www.localgovt.co.nzwww.localgovt.co.nz
• Farm Forestry Association, www.nzffa.org.nz Farm Forestry Association, www.nzffa.org.nz
• New Zealand Landcare Trust, www.landcare.org.nzNew Zealand Landcare Trust, www.landcare.org.nz
• Ballance Farm Environment Awards, www.ballance.co.nz/fea.htmlBallance Farm Environment Awards, www.ballance.co.nz/fea.html
Group work – Adaptation at Group work – Adaptation at the meso (catchment or the meso (catchment or regional) scaleregional) scale
• Develop a realistic resilience picture Develop a realistic resilience picture that clearly addresses future risks that clearly addresses future risks associated with climate change.associated with climate change.
• Develop a positive social interaction Develop a positive social interaction in your group.in your group.
• Effectively communicate your vision Effectively communicate your vision and how it can be achieved.and how it can be achieved.
Some key challengesSome key challenges
• Crisis provides a learning opportunity.Crisis provides a learning opportunity.
• Innovation requires a change of Innovation requires a change of thinking.thinking.
• Everyone has a point of view.Everyone has a point of view.
What communities can What communities can dodo
• Development of region-wide Development of region-wide resilience requires partnerships resilience requires partnerships between communities, industry between communities, industry groups and statutory groups and statutory organisations.organisations.
• Everyone needs to be working Everyone needs to be working together.together.
What communities can What communities can dodo
Urban/rural developmentUrban/rural developmentUrban/rural developmentUrban/rural development
BiosecurityBiosecurityBiosecurityBiosecurity
InfrastructureInfrastructureInfrastructureInfrastructure
WasteWasteWasteWaste
EnergyEnergyEnergyEnergy
BiodiversityBiodiversityBiodiversityBiodiversity
WaterWaterWaterWater
EducationEducationEducationEducation
REGIONAL REGIONAL RESILIENCERESILIENCE
REGIONAL REGIONAL RESILIENCERESILIENCE
Some key ingredients for a Some key ingredients for a resilient mesoresilient meso• Focus on ‘innovators’ – communicate their Focus on ‘innovators’ – communicate their
stories to others.stories to others.
• Identify wider issues and provide the Identify wider issues and provide the opportunity for constructive social opportunity for constructive social interactions to explore these.interactions to explore these.
• A whole catchment approach – science and A whole catchment approach – science and society working together.society working together.
• Shift the timeframe to the next 50 to 100 Shift the timeframe to the next 50 to 100 years.years.
Some good examplesSome good examples• The Coast Care BOP Programme, www.envbop.govt.nz The Coast Care BOP Programme, www.envbop.govt.nz
(look under Coast) or phone 0800 368 267.(look under Coast) or phone 0800 368 267.
• The Hawke’s Bay Regional Council Land Management The Hawke’s Bay Regional Council Land Management Group, www.hbrc.govt.nz (look under Land) or phone Group, www.hbrc.govt.nz (look under Land) or phone 0800-108-838.0800-108-838.
• The Environment Canterbury Living Streams Programme, The Environment Canterbury Living Streams Programme, www.ecan.govt.nz/Our+Environment/Land or phone 800 www.ecan.govt.nz/Our+Environment/Land or phone 800 324 636.324 636.
• Enviroschools, www.enviroschools.org.nz or phone 07 839 Enviroschools, www.enviroschools.org.nz or phone 07 839 5605. The vision of Enviroschools is ‘a generation of 5605. The vision of Enviroschools is ‘a generation of innovative and motivated young people, who instinctively innovative and motivated young people, who instinctively think and act sustainably’.think and act sustainably’.
• Integrated Catchment Management Project, Integrated Catchment Management Project, www.landcare.org.nz/integrated_catchment_management/iwww.landcare.org.nz/integrated_catchment_management/index.htm or phone 0508 526 322. ndex.htm or phone 0508 526 322.
‘‘Imagination is more important than knowledge’ Albert Imagination is more important than knowledge’ Albert EinsteinEinstein
Every situation is different, Every situation is different, we need to work with that we need to work with that diversitydiversity
Lake Rerewhakaaitu, Bay of Plenty
Ahuriri Catchment, Hawke’s Bay
Ashburton District, Canterbury
‘An oak tree lives in a four-hundred-year time-frame. Human time-frames are always too short. So we get it wrong, and we don’t really understand the natural processes halfhalf the time.’
‘So what’s your rule for the Forest?’
‘Look for a balance. But know that nature will find a better one.’
From ‘The Forest’, by Edward Rutherfurd
