Don’t Panic!A Critique of Catastrophic Man-Made

Global Warming Theory

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Five Key Climate Questions

• Is the world warming?

• Is that warming due to man’s CO2?

• Will future man-made warming be substantial?

• Will we see catastrophic effects from warming?

• Do CO2 abatement laws like AB32 make sense?

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Historic Temperature Record Shows Warming of About 0.6C

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Source: Hadley CRUT3, UAH

Orange line is a centered 60 month moving average

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Where's The Acceleration?Temperatures Have Been Flat for a Decade

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010-0.2

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Urban Growth Biases Temperatures UpwardsHalf or More of Measured Temperature Increases May Be Due to Urban Biases

1950-2000 California Temperature Change, Celsius

Source: LaDochy, 2007

0.99

0.34

Urban Rural

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Many Rural Stations Have Upwards BiasTahoe City, CA

Trash burned within 5 feetNearby tennis courtSurrounding parking lot and carsReflective metalNearby buildings

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Five Key Climate Questions

• Is the world warming?– Yes, but historic record likely overstated, and there has

been no warming in last 10 years

• Is that warming due to man’s CO2?

• Will future man-made warming be substantial?

• Will we see catastrophic effects from warming?

• Do CO2 abatement laws like AB32 make sense?

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Early Ice Core Studies Seemed to Have Found the Smoking Gun

CO2 appeared to be a strong driver of global temperatures…

Source: IPCC AR4

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More Careful Measurements Have Reversed the Findings

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Early IPCC Reports Found Current Temperatures to be Unexceptionable

Reconstructed temperature anomalySource: IPCC, 1990 AR1

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The Key IPCC AR4 “Proof” of CO2 Impact was the Hockey Stick Chart

Source: IPCC AR4

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The Inflection Point Occurs At The Junction of Two Unrelated Data Sets

Removing the Grafted Instrumental Data Eliminates the Hockey Stick

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The Proxies Quickly Diverge From the Instrumental Record

Divergence

Briffa data truncated to hide divergence

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Two 51-Year Periods: Which Is Man,And Which is Mother Nature?

One Period is 1895-1946 (“nature”) and the other Period is 1957-2008 (supposedly “Anthropogenic”)

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Key Anthropogenic Fingerprints Are Missing

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Actual Predicted

Mid-troposphere temperature above the tropics should rise the most, but has not

Temperature increases do not come close to matching IPCC AR4 model predictions

Temperature anomaly, Celsius, mid-troposphere temperatures. Source: UAH

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Sun Has Been Unusually Active in Last 50 Years

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Trailing 10.8 Year Avg. Sunspot Number

Avg. Monthly Sunspots 1900-1949: 48Avg. Monthly Sunspots 1950-1999: 73

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The Pacific Decadal Oscillation Has An Enormous Effect on Temperatures

Source: Hadley CRUT3, UAH

PDO Cool PDO Warm PDO Cool PDO Warm

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Five Key Climate Questions

• Is the world warming?– Yes, but historic record likely overstated, and there has

been no warming in last 10 years

• Is that warming due to man’s CO2?– Likely “some,” but probably not “most”

• Will future man-made warming be substantial?

• Will we see catastrophic effects from warming?

• Do CO2 abatement laws like AB32 make sense?

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IPCC Forecast for Temperature Increase due to CO2 Alone is Not Catastrophic

200 300 400 500 600 700 800(6.0)

(4.0)

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∆T = F(C2) – F(C1)Where F(c) = Ln(1+1.2c+0.005c2+0.0000014c3)

Feedback = 0

Today

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Catastrophic Forecasts Come From Positive Feedback, Not CO2 Alone

200 300 400 500 600 700 800(6.0)

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Feedback = 0

Feedback = 60%

Feedback = 75%

Feedback = 87%

Today

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Positive Feedback is Unusual for Long-Term Stable Natural Processes

Negative Feedback Positive Feedback

Disturbances are damped System remains near its starting

point, though it can oscillate

Disturbances are amplified System may end up far from its

starting point

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200 300 400 500 600 700 800(6.0)

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High Feedbacks Greatly Over-Predict Past Warming

Feedback = 0

Feedback = 60%

Feedback = 75%

Feedback = 87%

TodayPre-Industrial

0.6CObservedWarming

{

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In 1988, James Hansen's Speech to Congress Showed Good Fit Between His Climate Models and History

June, 1988

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Hansen Scenario A

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James Hansen's 1988 Forecast to Congress Was Grossly Exaggerated

August 2008 was .3C below June 1988 rather than projected .5C above

Hansen Scenario A

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Five Key Climate Questions

• Is the world warming?– Yes, but historic record likely overstated, and there has

been no warming in last 10 years

• Is that warming due to man’s CO2?– Likely “some,” but probably not “most”

• Will future man-made warming be substantial?– Perhaps a degree, at most, over the next century

• Will we see catastrophic effects from warming?

• Do CO2 abatement laws like AB32 make sense?

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No Upward Trend In Droughts...

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And No Upward Trend In Wet Weather

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No Upward Trend in Hurricane or Cyclonic Activity

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Glaciers Have Been Retreating far Longer than We Have Emitted CO2

Source: Oerlemans, et al, 2005

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North Pole Ice “All-Time Low” on Same Day as South Pole All-Time High

Source: University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign Polar Research Institute

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Five Key Climate Questions

• Is the world warming?– Yes, but historic record likely overstated, and there has

been no warming in last 10 years

• Is that warming due to man’s CO2?– Likely “some,” but probably not “most”

• Will future man-made warming be substantial?– Perhaps a degree, at most, over the next century

• Will we see catastrophic effects from warming?– Likely not – we have not seen them so far

• Do CO2 abatement laws like AB32 make sense?

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Global Warming is Sucking The Oxygen Out of the Environmental Movement

Other emissions that are more harmful that still need to be addressed

Driving environmentally stupid behavior (e.g. subsidizing corn ethanol)

Many other areas where more impact possible for less money

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Problems with the Precautionary Principle

Insurance makes no sense when the premiums are higher than the value of what you are insuring

Costs are going to be enormous to really make any kind of impact at all Europeans have $8-$9 gas and they are not any where near

20% by 2050 type goals California has the lowest per capital electricity use of any

state BUT CA has the 8th highest electricity prices CA has the 10th smallest industrial sector (as measured by percent

of electric demand to industrial users) CA has the 1st mildest climate (as measured by Cooling + Heating

degree days)

There is no free lunch on CO2 abatement

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Warmer and Richer or Cooler and Poorer?

Every 10x increase in per capita CO2 output increases life expectancy by 15 years

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A Plea for Sanity: A Carbon Tax Far Better than Cap and Trade

Carbon tax much simpler to administer (the California BOE could do it in their sleep). Emissions accounting is a nightmare

Cap and trade is a lobbyist’s dream Nearly infinite space for influence peddling, special

deals, exemptions, etc. European cap and trade systems are fraught

with faulty accounting Politicians like cap and trade because it allows

them to tax without appearing to tax. Have some guts and go with a straight carbon tax.

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Five Key Climate Questions

• Is the world warming?– Yes, but historic record likely overstated, and there has

been no warming in last 10 years

• Is that warming due to man’s CO2?– Likely “some,” but probably not “most”

• Will future man-made warming be substantial?– Perhaps a degree, at most, over the next century

• Will we see catastrophic effects from warming?– Likely not – we have not seen them so far

• Do CO2 abatement laws like AB32 make sense?– Costs far more than it helps. Many more important

priorities. Carbon tax preferred over cap-and-trade.

Don’t Panic!

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Notes / SourcesSlide 3: Temperature history through 1979 from the Hadley CRUT3 surface temperature database. After 1979,

temperatures are from the UAH satellite data set. These two data sets have different base periods for their anomaly. To reconcile them, the avg UAH anomaly for its first 60 months of data was normalized against the Hadley CRUT3 data for the same period, resulting in an addition of 0.1C to all UAH anomalies. UAH data is here: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt. Hadley CRUT3 data is here: http://www.junkscience.com/MSU_Temps/CRUglobal.csv

Slide 5: LaDochy, S., R. Medina, and W. Patzert. 2007. Recent California climate variability: spatial and temporal patterns in temperature trends. Climate Research, 33, 159-169.

Slide 6: This is one example site survey from www.SurfaceStations.org. Anthony Watts presentation to CIRES/UCAR in 2007 describing the survey process and results can be found at http://gallery.surfacestations.org/UCAR-slides/index.html

Slide 8: From figure TS.1 and figure 6.3 of the Fourth IPCC Climate Assessment

Slide 9: This result has been confirmed by many studies, resulting in lag values of 800-2000 years, and the basic finding is not in dispute. One example was Lowell Stott, Axel Timmermann, Robert Thunell: "Southern Hemisphere and Deep-Sea Warming Led Deglacial Atmospheric CO₂ Rise and Tropical Warming" Science, 2007

Slide 10: IPCC first climate assessment, 1990

Slide 11: IPCC fourth climate assessment, 2007 (also slides 12 and 13)

Slide 14: Hadley CRUT3 global surface temperature record. Both graphs are scaled exactly the same (in fact are crops from the same image). The graph on the left is 1957-2008. The graph on the right is 1895-1946

Slide 15: The left graph is from the UAH mid-troposphere data series for the tropics (http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2/uahncdc.nt). The right side is from two sources. The forecast is an interpolation of the contour maps from the IPCC fourth assessment. The actuals are from the UAH mid-troposphere data set.

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Notes / SourcesSlide 16: International sunspot number by month,

ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SUNSPOT_NUMBERS/MONTHLY. The moving average is a trailing 128 month average, roughly corresponding to 10.8 years or the average 20 th century sunspot cycle length

Slide 17: Same sources as slide 3

Slide 19: The formula is from the IPCC fourth assessment, and represents estimated global temperature increase for a given concentration of CO2.

Slide 20: The non-feedback formula is from the IPCC fourth assessment. Feedback calculations by author, and are based on the formula: G=1/(1-f) where G is the total gain or multiplier and f is the percentage feedback. Feedbacks f>1 result in infinite gains. Feedback 1>f>0 are positive feedbacks that accelerate or intensify a process. Feedback f<0 is negative feedback that damps or slows a process.

Slide 22: Analysis by author based on slides 19 and 20. CO2 levels from LawDome (historic ice cores) and Mauna Loa (modern / current)

Slide 23&24: Actuals same source as slide 3. Forecast from appendices to “Statement of Doctor James Hansen, Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies” before Congress June 23, 1988. http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-files/Environment/documents/2008/06/23/ClimateChangeHearing1988.pdf. Hansen’s Scenario A was chosen for comparison because it’s CO2 production assumptions most closely match actuals (it assumes 1.5% emissions growth, whereas actuals have been about 1.6% growth)

Slide 26&27: National Climate Data Center. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2008/jul/uspctarea-wetdry-svr.txt

Slide 28: Florida State University hurricane center, http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/

Slide 29: J. Oerlemans, “Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records” Science Vol. 308, No. 5722, pp. 675-677, 29 April 2005.

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Notes / SourcesSlide 30: University of Illinois Champaign-Urbana Polar Research Group,

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

Slide 33: Data on California Electricity Use from the Energy Information Administration, http://www.eia.doe.gov/a-z_index/Energya-z_a.html

Slide 34. Gapminder.com