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Cristina Giosue proposes Donkey Milk for Italy--includes fascinating analyses of milk's energy content and systematic feedback analysis of animal husbandry.


  • 1. UNIVERSITY OF PALERMO - SICILY (Italy) Department S.En.Fi.Mi.Zo - Animal production Sector - ANSC 400, CORNELL UNIVERSITY, 05/04/2006 Dr. Cristina Giosu A System Dynamics application: How to increase the total donkey milk production in Italy, producing profitability to the farmers? PhD student in PRODUZIONI FORAGGERE MEDITERRANEE XVIII cycle Visiting fellow at Cornell University in the Departmnent of Animal Science
  • 2. Outline
    • Introduction to System Dynamics modeling
    • Examples of System Dynamics application on a donkey milk production model
  • 3. Introduction to System Dynamics modeling
  • 4. What is System Dynamics and why it is important?
    • - The complexity of the systems in which we live is growing (accelerating economic, technological, social, and environmental changes)
    • - Many of the problems we now face arise as unanticipated side effect of our own past actions
    • - All too often the policies we implement to solve important problem fail, make the problem worse, or create new problems
  • 5. System Dynamics is - perspective and set of conceptual tools that enable us to understand the structure and dynamics of complex systems - qualitative modeling method that enables us to build formal computer simulations of complex systems and use them to design more effective policies and organizations - a rigorous way to help thinking, visualizing, sharing, and communication of the future evolution of complex organizations and issues over time for the purpose of solving problems and creating more robust designs, reducing the likelihood of counterintuitive or unintended consequences What is System Dynamics and why it is important? CSDNet
  • 6.
    • Figure 1-3 in Sterman
    Assumes a clear and linear response of results to our decision
    • Why unintended consequences ?
    • Event-oriented world view
    • Every event has a (single) cause
    • Leads to event-oriented problem solving
  • 7.
  • 8.
    • System Dynamics involve the use of :
    • Diagrams, graphs, words, and basic algebra to activate and capture existing knowledge about a particular observed problem situation
    • Frameworks to help both researchers and practitioners organize, filter and structure that knowledge
    • Mathematical simulation models and learning environments that help researchers and decision makers to identify more sustainable solutions and further refine their conceptual models
  • 9.
    • All models are wrong, some models are useful
    • All models are simplifications and must omit elements of reality
    • Despite these omissions, good models can enhance our thinking and problem solving
    • All models have clients
    • Clients are people you must influence for your work to have impact
    • Help clients solve their problembut also challenge their thinking
  • 10. Examples of System Dynamics application on a donkey milk production model
  • 11. The SD Modeling Process Iteration can occur from any step to any other Modeling effort will go through each of these step many times
  • 12. The SD Modeling Process Iteration can occur from any step to any other Modeling effort will go through each of these step many times Real world Information feedback Mental models of real world Strategy, structure, decision rules Decisions (Organizational Experiments)
  • 13. The researchable PROBLEM is: How to increase the total donkey milk production in Italy, producing profitability to the farmers?.. Problem articulation
  • 14. ..and WHY? Problem articulation
  • 15. General problem (background) Food Allergies a) In the last 20 years the population of developed countries suffering food allergies has increased (from 5 to 10%), the children and the babies are the most affected ( b) FA develop when intestinal immune system doesnt respond normally to the food proteins or protein fragments which have escaped lumen hydrolysis Problem articulation
  • 16. General problem (background) Food Allergies The main foods, that frequently cause allergy, are: egg (albumin), peanut, walnut,hazelnut, fish,shellfish, cow milk, chocolate, fruit (strawberry, pineapple, orange, tropical fruit ecc), cheese and vegetable (tomate ecc) ecc. The common symptoms of FA are: nausea, vomiting, abdominal pain, distension, flatulence and diarrhea; sometime skin and respiratory tract may be involved. Occasionally, severe systemic (anaphylactic) reactions are provoked and these reactions may be fatal (Sampson et al., 1996; Kimber et al., 2002). Problem articulation
  • 17. General problem (background) Cow Milk Protein Allergy (CMPA) Cow milk protein allergy ( CMPA) is the most relevant with higher social implications in developed countries . Prevalence: 2-5% of the children and babies in the developed countries (Pizzin et al., 2003; Villoslada et al., 2005) and 1% in the adults (E. Smith, 1997). Problem articulation
  • 18. CMPA Most children with CMPA synthesize specific immunoglobulin E to proteinic antigens (Iacono et al., 1992), such as , and k caseins, lactoglobuline, lactoalbumine and lactoferine (Teschemacher et al., 1997; F. Lara-Villoslada et al., 2005; CMPA in infancy and childhood) General problem (background) Problem articulation
  • 19. CMPA Actual alternative feeding systems........ - Dietary products for infants derived from several different protein sources (such as bovine casein, bovine whey, bovine or porcine collagen, soy, or mixtures of these) exposed to different procedures of hydrolysis and further processing (heat treatment or ultrafiltration) - Dietary products based on amino acid mixtures (Fiocchi et al., 2003). General problem (background) Problem articulation
  • 20. CMPA ..but Some patients with CMAP can also react to these foods ( multiple food allergies) (Iannolino et al., 2005) General problem (background) Problem articulation
  • 21. Researchable problem The donkey milk and CMPA Since 1990, in Italy, some researches in regard to donkey milk use on children with strong food allergies have started. In some regions of Italy the use of donkey milk to feed the babies is not new (in Sicily until the end of the Second War and in Germany) ( Oftedal et al., 1988). The economical, social changes and the industrial progress have caused an increase in the use of milk substitutes. Iacono et al. (1992) showed good results by the use of donkey milk on 9 babies with multiple food allergies. The donkey milk was well tolerated and no negative reactions were recorded. These results were confirmed by Carroccio et al. (2000) on 18/21 patients. Problem articulation
  • 22. Milk composition (%) of different species and Energy (KJ/kg) (Polidori 1994) *Salimei et al., 1999; **Salimei et al, 2001; ***Polidori 1994 2855 0.22 6.69 0.40 1.64 3.38 12.43 87.57 Woman 1939*** 0.39 6.88 0.38** 1.72 0.38 8.84 91.16 Donkey* 4846 0.80 4.70 3.84 4.80 7.50 17.8 82.2 Cow buffalo 3399 0.73 4.47 3.10 3.41 4.62 13.23 86.77 Goat 5289 0.92 4.89 4.50 6.17 7.50 19.52 80.48 Sheep 2983 0.78 4.71 2.50 3.43 3.46 12.38 87.62 Cow Casein % Energy KJ/kg Ash % Lactose % Protein % Fat % Total solids % Water % Species
  • 23. Average nitrogen composition of the milk in some species 14.0 4000 48.0 38.0 86.0 donkey 700 500 trace trace - (Lisozime, ppm) 10 45 45 90 Horse 11.4 5 7.43 8.7 7.13 4.66 Non proteic nitrogen 58.2 17.0 15.7 16.8 Whey protein (%) 30.4 78.0 75.6 78.5 Casein (%) 88.6 95.0 91.3 95.3 Protein (%) Woman Cow Goat Sheep
  • 24. Some Milk Proteic Fractions + Jenness, 1980; *Doreau et Boulot, 1989; **Buscemi, 2000;***Ambruzzi, 2003 More investigations are necessary! 30-35 2.5 12 45 28 64 Cow+ 75 3.9 8.1 0 5(as1) 12,6(as2) 47 56 Goat+ No 30 60 lactoglobuline (% of total w