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Page 1: Diwali Picks Oct 2016 - Kotak SecuritiesDIWALI PICKS - FUNDAMENTAL October 21, 2016 Nifty - Top 5 Stocks (11 Nov 15 - 20 Oct 16) Company Name Price on 11/11/15 Price on 20/10/16 %
Page 2: Diwali Picks Oct 2016 - Kotak SecuritiesDIWALI PICKS - FUNDAMENTAL October 21, 2016 Nifty - Top 5 Stocks (11 Nov 15 - 20 Oct 16) Company Name Price on 11/11/15 Price on 20/10/16 %

OCTOBER 21, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT RESEARCHDIWALI PICKS - FUNDAMENTAL

Samvat 2072 is ending with gains of about 11% on the benchmarks, whichhave come after significant volatility. The year can be analysed in twoparts - the sharp fall till Budget 2016 and then an equally sharp, almost V-shaped, recovery till date. The pessimism of last Samvat year hadcontinued post-Diwali and till Budget 2016, when the Sensex reachedlevels of about 23,000. After this, optimism took over and broughtmarkets very near to all-time highs, at around 29,000. The BSE mid-cap andsmall-cap indices have outperformed during this period and have returnedabout 25% and 20%, respectively. Several stocks performed even betterthan the mid and small cap indices.

We had written in last year's Diwali Note - "No doubt, there will beperiods of uncertainty and anguish and concerns. There may be furthercorrection in markets. However, we are hopeful of a rewarding Samvat2072, after a flattish previous year." We are happy that, our optimismcame true.

Sensex, BSE Smallcap/Midcap performance

Source: Bloomberg

On the global front, Brexit came as a rude shock to the world and themarkets, both equity and currency, reacted negatively to the same. Theactual fallout of this on India is yet uncertain and can be measured oncethe new leadership comes out with policy decisions on trade and foreignaffairs.

On the domestic front, one concern which came early in Samvat 2072 wasthe Bihar elections. We saw the BJP fare badly in Bihar assembly elections,which cast its shadow over the markets amid concerns of potentialslackening of reforms. The concern was erased, though, over the course ofthe year as the Government initiated and implemented various reforms insectors like roads, power, mining, etc.

Diwali Picks - October 2016

80

90

100

110

120

130 Sensex

BSE Midcap

BSE Small cap

Page 3: Diwali Picks Oct 2016 - Kotak SecuritiesDIWALI PICKS - FUNDAMENTAL October 21, 2016 Nifty - Top 5 Stocks (11 Nov 15 - 20 Oct 16) Company Name Price on 11/11/15 Price on 20/10/16 %

Kotak Securities - Private Client Research For Private Circulation 2

DIWALI PICKS - FUNDAMENTAL October 21, 2016

Nifty - Top 5 Stocks (11 Nov 15 - 20 Oct 16)

Company Name Price on 11/11/15 Price on 20/10/16 % Chg

Tata Steel Ltd 216 429 98.8

Hindalco Industries 80 155 94.6

Yes Bank Ltd 749 1,309 74.8

GAIL India Ltd 278 439 58.0

Bharat Petroleum Corpration Ltd 430 662 54.0

Source: Bloomberg

Nifty - Bottom 5 Stocks (11 Nov 15 - 20 Oct 16)

Company Name Price on 11/11/15 Price on 20/10/16 % Chg

Idea Cellular 131 78 (40.1)

BHEL 179 142 (20.8)

Tech Mahindra Ltd 513 425 (17.2)

Lupin 1,794 1,506 (16.1)

Wipro Ltd 550 495 (10.0)

Source: Bloomberg

The Banking sector, especially the PSU Banks, was in focus as the AQR(Asset Quality Review) directive of the RBI resulted in massive increase inNPAs and provisioning in 3QFY16 and 4QFY16. However, the subsequentsale of assets / businesses by various promoters to repay debts and thepassage of the Bankruptcy Law, eased some of these concerns.

Crude prices have been pretty volatile with the oil producing countriestrying to restrict supplies to match the weakening demand. After falling tolows of about $25 / barrel in March 2016, brent crude has bounced back toabout $52 / barrel, after OPEC and Russia announced production freeze / cutto support prices. One needs to watch this closely as it does have an impacton the fiscal position of the Government and also on inflation.

Brent Crude (US$/bl)

Source: Bloomberg

On the other hand, the capex spends from the private sector are still largelymissing. This has been hamstrung by a muted export growth, weakcommodity markets, subdued real estate sector and still low capacityutilization levels (though improving). While capacity utilization levels areincreasing, we expect private sector capex to revive over the next 3-4quarters only.

20

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Page 4: Diwali Picks Oct 2016 - Kotak SecuritiesDIWALI PICKS - FUNDAMENTAL October 21, 2016 Nifty - Top 5 Stocks (11 Nov 15 - 20 Oct 16) Company Name Price on 11/11/15 Price on 20/10/16 %

Kotak Securities - Private Client Research For Private Circulation 3

DIWALI PICKS - FUNDAMENTAL October 21, 2016

While the private sector capex has been lack-lustre, the void is being filledby the Government, which has increased spend sharply to support theeconomy. Spends on roads, railways and defence, apart from others, haveseen significant increases. This, in turn, has bolstered the order books forcompanies in these sectors. We expect the impact on the financials to befelt in future quarters.

Foreign flows have been a driving force for our markets over the years. FIIflows were largely negative till February 2016, with January / Februaryseeing outflows of Rs.195 bn. However, Budget 2016, with its FD target of3.5%, turned sentiments around and we saw one of the highest monthlybuying number from FIIs in March 2016. In FY17-to-date, FIIs have been netbuyers to the tune of Rs.414 bn. A defining factor of the previous yearwas the strong domestic flows into the markets. Domestic institutions hadinvested Rs.645 bn in equity markets during the year and the trend hascontinued with a net investment of Rs.150 bn YTD in FY17. It is clear that,savings are consistently moving to financial assets v/s physical assetsearlier.

FII & Mutual Fund investment (Rs Cr)

Source: Bloomberg

Rainfall almost matched the long-period average this year and came as abooster to the farm incomes and agriculture-related sectors. After twosuccessive years of below-average monsoons, the current season isexpected to provide a fill-up to several sectors like agrochemicals, farmequipment, consumer goods, automobiles, etc.

Apart from the good monsoons, the consumption sector is expected tobenefit from the additional payouts from the 7th Pay Commissionrecommendations. The Commission has recommended an average 23.5%raise in pay and allowances. It will benefit 4.7mn Central Governmentemployees and 5.2mn pensioners. The impact on the Budget (Central &Railway) will be Rs.1.02trn. We expect sectors like auto, consumerdurables, home improvement, among others, to benefit.

In a significant reforms development, the GST Constitutional AmendmentBill was passed by the Parliament. The standard rate for GST is beingdebated on and is expected to be announced in the near future. If thestandard rate is around 18%, it will be along expected lines. We expectvarious sectors to benefit from the implementation of GST (likely WEFApril 2017) - Cement, Logistics, Media and various sectors with highunorganized concentration (tiles, batteries, etc).

-15000

0

15000

30000FII Mutual Fund

Page 5: Diwali Picks Oct 2016 - Kotak SecuritiesDIWALI PICKS - FUNDAMENTAL October 21, 2016 Nifty - Top 5 Stocks (11 Nov 15 - 20 Oct 16) Company Name Price on 11/11/15 Price on 20/10/16 %

Kotak Securities - Private Client Research For Private Circulation 4

DIWALI PICKS - FUNDAMENTAL October 21, 2016

Sectoral performance

Source: Bloomberg

Going ahead, in Samvat 2073, we expect the Government to focus oneffective implementation of fiscal reforms already passed. GST is likely tobe implemented WEF April 2017. Inflation has come off over the past fewmonths and, we believe it will continue to trend lower. This should lead toa soft interest rate regime in the year, though significant lowering ofinterest rates looks difficult.

Private sector capex is an important variable and we expect this to pick upover the course of the next 2-3 quarters. We also believe that, the benefitsof the high Government spend should start getting reflected in financialsof corporate India, during the year. We also expect continuation of thetrend of domestic savings flowing into financial assets, including equities.

Globally, growth rates in China are not expected to fall further, thoughrecovery may be slow. The US economy will likely continue to grow but,the impact of Brexit is yet to be determined and felt. We hope that, themonsoons will be better next year, after having a normal year in 2016.

Given this backdrop, we maintain our positive bias towards domesticinfrastructure and cyclical sectors over the medium-to-long term. We arealso positive on the consumption theme. We recommend sticking toquality and advise selectively investing in stocks having strong balancesheets and ethical managements. Select export-oriented stocks will dowell as US economy strengthens and Brexit impact gets clearer. Key risksare geo-political concerns globally, decline in foreign inflows, sharpcurrency movements and spike in oil prices.

All-in-all, we expect returns in Samvat 2073 to be better than Samvat 2072,notwithstanding the intermittent bouts of corrections / profit-booking.

We have selected some stocks which look attractive to us from aninvestment perspective.

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150 Sensex

FMCG

Capital goods

Banking

PSU

Oil & Gas

Auto

Tech

Healthcare

Metal

Page 6: Diwali Picks Oct 2016 - Kotak SecuritiesDIWALI PICKS - FUNDAMENTAL October 21, 2016 Nifty - Top 5 Stocks (11 Nov 15 - 20 Oct 16) Company Name Price on 11/11/15 Price on 20/10/16 %

Kotak Securities - Private Client Research For Private Circulation 5

DIWALI PICKS - FUNDAMENTAL October 21, 2016

Stocks

Mkt Price as on Target Upside FY1820 Oct 2016 Price (%) PE

(Rs) (Rs) (x)

Allcargo Global Logistics 181 215 18.8 13.3

Dish TV India Ltd 95 110 15.8 23.1

Engineers India Ltd 266 335 25.9 16.7

Finolex Industries 458 530 15.7 17.3

Larsen & Toubro 1,504 1,636 8.8 21.1

Mahindra & Mahindra 1,327 1,541 16.1 19.3

Mold-Tek Packing Ltd 216 260 20.4 13.8

Nagarjuna Construction 82 106 29.3 15

Natco Pharma Ltd 588 750 27.6 18.9

PNC Infratech Ltd 125 157 25.6 14.1

TV18 Broadcast 44 56 27.3 17.3

Source: Kotak Securities - Private Client Research; Bloomberg

Performance of our Diwali picks of last year v/s Nifty and CNX 500 Index

Reco given at Price on 20/10/16 % Chg

Indices

Nifty Index 8,061 8,680 7.5

NSE 500 Index 6,755 7,528 11.3

Stocks

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd 4,505 5,655 25.5

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd 870 745 (14.4)

Infosys Ltd 1,141 1,039 (8.9)

ICICI Bank Ltd 278 275 (0.9)

Dabur India 271 283 4.6

Praj Industries 88 80 (8.8)

PNC Infrastructure 105 126 19.5

Century Plyboards 184 253 37.4

Engineeers India Ltd 196 265 35.2

Allcargo 163 179 10.0

Supreme Industries 629 915 45.5

Source: Bloomberg

Page 7: Diwali Picks Oct 2016 - Kotak SecuritiesDIWALI PICKS - FUNDAMENTAL October 21, 2016 Nifty - Top 5 Stocks (11 Nov 15 - 20 Oct 16) Company Name Price on 11/11/15 Price on 20/10/16 %

BUY

Current Market Price (Rs) 52 Week H/L (Rs) Mkt Cap (Rs mn)

181 222 / 135 45629

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

FINANCIALS (RS MN) FY16 FY17E FY18ESales 56,874 61,290 67,233Growth (%) 1.0 7.8 9.7 EBITDA 5,255 5,756 6,271EBITDA margin (%) 9.2 9.4 9.3 PBT 3,580 4,031 4,521Net profit 2,789 3,050 3,431EPS (Rs) 11.1 12.1 13.6 Growth (%) 15.9 9.4 12.5 CEPS (Rs) 17.1 18.5 20.1 Book value (Rs/share) 86.4 97.7 110.6 Dividend /share (Rs) 1.3 1.3 1.3 Source: Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research

ROE (%) 12.8 12.4 12.3ROCE (%) 11.7 11.9 12.0Net cash (debt) (3,488) (2,995) (2,531) Net WC (Days) 25.0 26.0 27.0

VALUATION PARAMETERS FY16 FY17E FY18EP/E (x) 16.4 15.0 13.3

P/BV (x) 2.1 1.9 1.6

EV/Sales (x) 0.9 0.8 0.7

EV/EBITDA (x) 9.3 8.4 7.7

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1M 3M 6M(7.3) (3.8) 10.7

Source: Bloomberg, Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Source: Company

Volumes for CFS business in TEUs (Nos)

Potential Upside (%)

18.8%

1 Year Performance

Share Holding Pattern (%)

Volumes for MTO business in TEUs (Nos)

Last report at Rs.190 on 16 September 2016

ALLCARGO LOGISTICS Analyst: [email protected]

Target Price (Rs)

215

Promoter69.9%

FII6.2%

DII7.9%

Others16.0%

95,000

100,000

105,000

110,000

115,000

120,000

125,000

Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 Q4FY16 Q1FY17

66000

68000

70000

72000

74000

76000

78000

80000

Q3FY16 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 Q4FY16 Q1FY17

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410

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Allcargo Logistics Nifty

INVESTMENT ARGUMENT Allcargo has a strong presence in the Multimodal Transport Operation

(MTO) business through wide network of ECU Line. It also has a strong hold on domestic MTO business and continues to

perform strongly in the MTO segment despite sluggish container shipping market

We estimate the MTO segment to grow at ~6.2% in FY17 and ~5.4% in FY18

Relationship with shipping lines, vast experience in logisticsbusiness and presence in other verticals (MTO) should help ALL tooutperform most of its peers in the CFS segment

We estimate the PES division and Coastal shipping segment toremain insignificant for ALL.

We also estimate ALL to be the biggest beneficiary of any recoveryin trade and GST implementation

RISKS & CONCERNS Deterioration in Exim trade Competition in the CFS segment

COMPANY BACKGROUND Allcargo is the 2nd largest global player in LCL (less than container load)

consolidation business. The company operates primarily in three segments, viz. MTO, CFS/ICDs

operation and Project & Engineering Solution segment.

SECTOR BACKGROUND Multimodal transport operations (MTO) is a chain that interconnects

different modes of transport -air, sea, and land into one complete processthat ensures an efficient and cost-effective door-to-door movement of goods under the responsibility of a single transport operator

Page 8: Diwali Picks Oct 2016 - Kotak SecuritiesDIWALI PICKS - FUNDAMENTAL October 21, 2016 Nifty - Top 5 Stocks (11 Nov 15 - 20 Oct 16) Company Name Price on 11/11/15 Price on 20/10/16 %

BUY

Current Market Price (Rs) 52 Week H/L (Rs) Mkt Cap (Rs mn)

95 112 / 65 101254

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

FINANCIALS (RS MN) FY16 FY17E FY18ESales 30,599 34,685 39,505 Growth (%) 13.8 13.4 13.9 EBITDA 10,249 11,335 12,913 EBITDA margin (%) 33.5 32.7 32.7 PBT 2,895 3,834 6,319 Net profit 6,924 2,531 4,171 EPS (Rs) 6.5 2.4 3.9 Growth (%) NM (63) 65 CEPS 12.0 8.2 10.6 Book Value (Rs / Share) 3.6 5.9 8.7 Dividend per Share (Rs) - - 1 Source: Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research

ROE (%) NM NM 53.5 ROCE (%) 24.9 6.4 9.1 Net cash (debt) (19,294) (5,421) (7,265) Net working capital (Days) 17 (49) (55)

VALUATION PARAMETERS FY16 FY17E FY18EP/E (x) 14.6 40.0 24.3

P/BV (x) 26.6 16.0 10.9

EV/Sales (x) 3.9 3.1 2.7

EV/EBITDA (x) 11.8 9.4 8.4

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1M 3M 6M(2.0) (2.8) 8.6

Source: Bloomberg, Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Source: Company

Last report at Rs.94 on 29 July 2016

DISH TV INDIA LTD Analyst: [email protected]

Target Price (Rs)

110

Gross Margins (Quarterly)

Potential Upside (%)

15.8%

1 Year Performance

Share Holding Pattern (%)

ARPU (quarterly)

Promoter64.4%

FII19.8%

DII6.1%

Others9.7%

145

150

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165

170

175

180

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62

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60

120

180

240

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Dish TV India Ltd Nifty

INVESTMENT ARGUMENT Improving trends in ARPU signal better days ahead of DTH

industry: After a long lull, the DTH industry has begun to showbetter pricing, as reflected in quarterly ARPUs. This indicates areduction in competitive intensity, and would help the industry .

Longer-term, DTH to benefit from Phase-3/ Phase 4 rollout ofDigital Addressable System (DAS): Dish TV is well exposed tobenefit from rolloutr of DAS in Phase - 3/ Phase - 4 which will include semi-urban / rural geographies. Unlike Phase - 1/ Phase -2 , due to economic constraints faced by cable operators, Phase -3/ Phase - 4 of DAS is likely to be more beneficial to DTHoperators relative to cable, in terms of customer acquisition.

Near-term economics may see benefits due to innovativepackaging, and better competitive terms with cable: Dish TV hasrepackaged its offerings to customers in smaller towns (Zing)which is yielding good results. Among subscribers in larger cities,the company may see some benefits due to ongoing tusslesbetween cable operators and broadcasters.

RISKS & CONCERNS Competitive intensity, further delays in DAS rollout are key

concern areas.

COMPANY BACKGROUND Dish TV, promoted by Essel Group (Zee Group) is India's largest

Direct to Home (DTH) company, with over 10 mn subscribers.

SECTOR BACKGROUND The DTH industry provides a platform to the c. 150mn homes that

are serviced by cable and satellite TV.

Page 9: Diwali Picks Oct 2016 - Kotak SecuritiesDIWALI PICKS - FUNDAMENTAL October 21, 2016 Nifty - Top 5 Stocks (11 Nov 15 - 20 Oct 16) Company Name Price on 11/11/15 Price on 20/10/16 %

BUY

Current Market Price (Rs) 52 Week H/L (Rs) Mkt Cap (Rs mn)

266 276 / 143 89625

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

FINANCIALS (RS MN) FY16E FY17E FY18ESales 14,958 16,386 19,626 Growth (%) (12.7) 9.5 19.8EBITDA 1,600 3,605 5,299 EBITDA margin (%) 10.7 22.0 27.0 PBT 3,921 6,198 7,885 Net profit 2,583 4,153 5,362 EPS (Rs) 7.7 12.3 15.9 Growth (%) (15.3) 60.7 29.1 CEPS (Rs) 8.4 12.9 16.5 BV (Rs/share) 79.1 84.8 94.1 DPS (Rs) 5.0 5.7 5.7 Source: Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research

ROE (%) 9.9 15.0 17.8 ROCE (%) 9.8 14.9 17.6 Net cash (debt) 26,238 26,652 30,393 NW Capital (Days) (131.3) (83.9) (84.2)

VALUATION PARAMETERS FY16E FY17E FY18EP/E (x) 34.7 21.6 16.7 P/BV (x) 3.4 3.1 2.8 EV/Sales (x) 4.2 3.8 3.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 39.4 17.4 11.1

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1M 3M 6M2.7 18.9 49.8

Source: Bloomberg, Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Source: Company

Revenue Mix (%)

Potential Upside (%)

25.9%

1 Year Performance

Share Holding Pattern (%)

Segment Sales (Rs bn)

Last report at Rs.252 on 25 August 2016

ENGINEERS INDIA LTD Analyst: [email protected]

Target Price (Rs)

335

Promoter59.3%

FII6.6%

DII20.6%

Others13.5%

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FY14 FY15 FY16(E) FY17E FY18(E)

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Engineers India Ltd Nifty

INVESTMENT ARGUMENT Engineers India enjoys healthy market share in the Hydrocarbon

consultancy segment. It enjoys prolific relationship with few of themajor oil & gas companies like HPCL, BPCL, ONGC and IOC.

Company is well poised to benefit from recovery in the infrastructure spending in the hydrocarbon sector.

We believe that in future, company shall inevitably benefit fromMoPNG huge target of nearly Rs 1.2 trillion envisaged for variousprojects in XII five year plan.

Company has been observing pick up in order inflows/revenuebooking in consultancy business space which enjoys healthymargins.

RISKS & CONCERNS Slowdown in domestic Hydrocarbon industry.

COMPANY BACKGROUND A Public sector undertaking. Leading player in domestic market

SECTOR BACKGROUND Hydrocarbon consulting business is a direct leverage on

Hydrocarbon sector. MPoNG has envisaged investments at Rs1.2 trillion for various projects in 12th five year plan.

Indian Hydrocarbon sector has witnessed substantial capacityaddition over the last decade. Refining capacity currently stands at215 MMT against 62 MMT in 1998.

Refineries14%

Petrochemicals

32%

Fertilizers6%

Pipelines19%

Storage Terminals 

29%

Page 10: Diwali Picks Oct 2016 - Kotak SecuritiesDIWALI PICKS - FUNDAMENTAL October 21, 2016 Nifty - Top 5 Stocks (11 Nov 15 - 20 Oct 16) Company Name Price on 11/11/15 Price on 20/10/16 %

BUY

Current Market Price (Rs) 52 Week H/L (Rs) Mkt Cap (Rs mn)

458 498 / 258 56792

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

FINANCIALS (RS MN) FY16 FY17E FY18ESales 24,528 28,031 32,601 Growth (%) (0.9) 14.3 16.3EBITDA 3,751 4,396 5,242 EBITDA margin (%) 15.3 15.7 16.1 PBT 3,435 3,909 4,842 Net profit 2,336 2,659 3,293 EPS (Rs) 18.8 21.4 26.5 Growth (%) 388.9 13.8 23.9 CEPS (Rs) 22.9 25.6 30.7 Book value (Rs/share) 77.2 89.0 106.0 Dividend per share (Rs) 10.0 7.0 7.0 Source: Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research

ROE (%) 26.8 25.8 27.2 ROCE (%) 25.0 32.4 36.7 Net cash (debt) (2,017) (1,060) 904 Net Working Capital (Days) 21.2 28.8 40.7

VALUATION PARAMETERS FY16 FY17E FY18EP/E (x) 24.3 21.4 17.3

P/BV (x) 5.9 5.1 4.3

EV/Sales (x) 2.4 2.1 1.7

EV/EBITDA (x) 15.7 13.2 10.7

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1M 3M 6M(4.5) 1.2 25.0

Source: Bloomberg, Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Source: Industry, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research

Last report at Rs.473 on 30 August 2016

FINOLEX INDUSTRIES LTD Analyst: [email protected]

Target Price (Rs)

530

Investment in water supply and irrigation (Rs bn)

Potential Upside (%)

15.7%

1 Year Performance

Share Holding Pattern (%)

RoCE and RoE to improve further

Promoter52.6%

FII4.8%

DII7.3%

Others35.3%

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Finolex Industries Ltd Nifty

INVESTMENT ARGUMENT Finolex Industries Ltd (FIL) is a leading company in Indian PVC pipes and

fittings industry with 19% organized market share in volume terms. It hasstrong brand equity and enjoys market leadership in agri segment with70% of its revenue being contributed by this segment where pipes areused in irrigation.

Government has emphasized on increasing land under irrigation and isfocused on improving rural water and sanitation infrastructure, which ispositive for pipes’ demand. We believe that, FIL would be a majorbeneficiary if rural consumption improves on normal monsoon in thecurrent year.

FIL is generating strong cash flows which would be used in meeting itsfunding requirement and making it debt free.

RISKS & CONCERNS High volatility in raw material prices

Disappointment from rural demand

COMPANY BACKGROUND FIL is a leading brand in Indian PVC pipes and fittings market. The

company manufactures and sells PVC pipes, fittings and PVC resin. 73%of its revenue is contributed by PVC pipes and fittings and balance 27% iscontributed by PVC resins. The company has 280000 tpa (tonnes perannum) capacity of PVC and 272000 tpa of PVC resins. It is expanding itsPVC pipes capacity by 100000 tonnes in the next three years with Rs 1 bnof total investment at its existing plants.

SECTOR BACKGROUND Domestic PVC pipes market at 1.8 mn tonnes is growing at 12-15% CAGR

in volume terms. About 40% of the industry is unorganized. The industry issteadily shifting toward organized players with shift expected to gatherpace after the introduction of GST and would be positive for organizedplayers.

0.0

12.0

24.0

36.0

48.0

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E

RoE (%) RoCE (%)

606

1208

2553

1215

2435

5044

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Xth (2002‐2007)

XIth (2007‐2012)

XIIth (2012‐2017)

Page 11: Diwali Picks Oct 2016 - Kotak SecuritiesDIWALI PICKS - FUNDAMENTAL October 21, 2016 Nifty - Top 5 Stocks (11 Nov 15 - 20 Oct 16) Company Name Price on 11/11/15 Price on 20/10/16 %

BUY

Current Market Price (Rs) 52 Week H/L (Rs) Mkt Cap (Rs mn)

1504 1615 / 1016 1372047

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

FINANCIALS (RS MN) FY16 FY17E FY18ESales 1,026,317 1,138,727 1,314,330 Growth (%) 11.6 11.0 15.4EBITDA 123,427 115,350 135,376 EBITDA margin (%) 12.0 10.1 10.3 PBT 80,867 94,152 111,335 Net profit 50,608 55,014 65,891

EPS (Rs) 50.7 59.3 71.1 Growth (%) 5.7 17.0 19.8 CEPS (Rs) 80.5 79.9 93.7 Book value (Rs/share) 476.9 516.0 567.0 Dividend per share (Rs) 17.0 18.0 18.0 Source: Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research

ROE (%) 11.1 12.0 13.1 ROCE (%) 3.6 3.2 3.5

Net cash (debt) (954,050) (880,090) (874,971) Net Working Capital (Days) 105.4 117.2 114.9

VALUATION PARAMETERS FY16 FY17E FY18EP/E (x) 29.6 25.3 21.2 P/BV (x) 3.2 2.9 2.7

EV/Sales (x) 2.3 2.0 1.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 18.8 19.5 16.6

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1M 3M 6M2.3 (3.3) 20.2

Source: Bloomberg, Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Source: Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research

Last report at Rs.1558 on 1 August 2016

LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD Analyst: [email protected]

Target Price (Rs)

1636

EBITDA Margin to strengthen

Potential Upside (%)

8.8%

1 Year Performance

Share Holding Pattern (%)

IML- share to go up to 60% by FY18E

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Larsen & Toubro Nifty

INVESTMENT ARGUMENT

L&T is a diversified play on the Indian infrastructure and Industrial sector.

The order backlog of Rs 2.57 trn remains strong providing visibility of 34months of trailing four quarter revenue.

The company has given revenue growth guidance in FY17 of 10-15%.

Stock performance would be contingent on newsflow on larger order wins, commodity price trends and general economic and policy datapoints (interest rate cuts and mining and power sector reforms), we opine.

We expect stock to respond favourably to any reforms moves to address the issues that have plagued the power sector

RISKS & CONCERNS

Mainly project execution and commodity price risks.

Project investments has slowed down in recent quarters, which may impactorder flow in the coming quarters.

COMPANY BACKGROUND

Professionally managed engineering company.

Presence across Middle East and Central Asia

Diversified across Power, Infrastructure, Hydrocarbons, Railways,

Shipbuilding, Nuclear etc

SECTOR BACKGROUND

The sector is a play on the growth of industrial and infrastructureinvestment in India as well as abroad

Government is a significant investor in the sector as it rolls out itsinvestment plans in road building, railways, power and energy.

Sector has in the recent years been bogged down by high interest rates and delay in decision making at government level.

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Page 12: Diwali Picks Oct 2016 - Kotak SecuritiesDIWALI PICKS - FUNDAMENTAL October 21, 2016 Nifty - Top 5 Stocks (11 Nov 15 - 20 Oct 16) Company Name Price on 11/11/15 Price on 20/10/16 %

ACCUMULATE

Current Market Price (Rs) 52 Week H/L (Rs) Mkt Cap (Rs mn)

1327 1509 / 1091 824190

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

FINANCIALS (RS MN) FY16 FY17E FY18ESales 408,850 458,816 536,081 Growth (%) 5.0 12.2 16.8EBITDA 45,702 51,542 62,084 EBITDA margin (%) 11.2 11.2 11.6 PBT 42,299 46,716 56,240 Net profit 31,675 35,037 42,180 EPS (Rs) 51.6 57.1 68.7 Growth (%) (4.6) 10.6 20.4 CEPS (Rs) 69.6 78.1 92.7 Book value (Rs/share) 353.5 397.2 452.4 Dividend per share (Rs) 12.1 12.0 12.0 Source: Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research

ROE (%) 15.2 15.2 16.2 ROCE (%) 18.2 18.8 20.6 Net cash (debt) 17,558 28,035 50,101 Net Working Capital (Days) (14.0) (10.0) (10.7)

VALUATION PARAMETERS FY16 FY17E FY18EP/E (x) 25.7 23.3 19.3

P/BV (x) 3.8 3.3 2.9

EV/Sales (x) 2.0 1.7 1.4

EV/EBITDA (x) 17.6 15.4 12.5

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1M 3M 6M(5.9) (7.8) 1.1

Source: Bloomberg, Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Source: Company

Last report at Rs.1449 on 11 August 2016

MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA LTD Analyst: [email protected]

Target Price (Rs)

1541

Tractor Sales Volume (Nos)

Potential Upside (%)

16.1%

1 Year Performance

Share Holding Pattern (%)

Auto Sales Volumes (Units)

Promoter26.9%

FII31.7%

DII27.0%

Others14.3%

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Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd Nifty

INVESTMENT ARGUMENT In the auto segment, we expect volume growth to moderate to single

digits in FY17. In FY18, we expect demand growth will benefit from fullimpact of likely rural recovery, launch of petrol variants for XUV500 andScorpio and new product launch.

Good monsoons is likely to keep tractor demand robust in FY17 and theimpact will likely roll over to FY18.

Profit margin for M&M's auto segment is likely to stay subdued.However, tractor business is expected to witness strong margins due tohealthy demand recovery. Overall, increased share of tractor revenueswill be positive for overall EBITDA margins.

RISKS & CONCERNS Lower than expected performance of new launches

Delay in expected pick-up of tractor demand

COMPANY BACKGROUND Mahindra & Mahindra is the flagship company of the Mahindra Group.

M&M is amongst the top names in India automobile industry and marketleader in the tractor business.

SECTOR BACKGROUND India’s passenger vehicle industry sold ~3mn vehicles in FY15. While

80% of sales happened in the domestic market, balance 20% wereexported. Top five players account for ~80% of industry sales volumes.

Tractor sales in the domestic market, in the past decade, grew by 12.6%CAGR. Domestic tractor demand is dependent on factors likemonsoons, crop production, MSP, credit flow, govt schemes (regularand one-time) and the general state of the rural economy

Page 13: Diwali Picks Oct 2016 - Kotak SecuritiesDIWALI PICKS - FUNDAMENTAL October 21, 2016 Nifty - Top 5 Stocks (11 Nov 15 - 20 Oct 16) Company Name Price on 11/11/15 Price on 20/10/16 %

BUY

Current Market Price (Rs) 52 Week H/L (Rs) Mkt Cap (Rs mn)

216 222 / 104 5981

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

FINANCIALS (RS MN) FY16 FY17E FY18ESales 2,757 3,019 3,812 Growth (%) (3.3) 9.5 26.3EBITDA 458 553 754 EBITDA margin (%) 16.6 18.3 19.8 PBT 368 468 654 Net profit 241 314 436 EPS (Rs) 8.7 11.3 15.7 Growth (%) 42.8 30.1 39.0 CEPS (Rs) 11.8 14.5 19.4 BV (Rs/share) 46.5 56.2 69.6 Dividend per share (Rs) 3.3 3.3 3.5 Source: Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research

ROE (%) 18.7 20.2 22.6 ROCE (%) 18.6 19.9 23.5 Net cash (debt) (251) (247) (239) Net Working Capital (Days) 85 89 83

VALUATION PARAMETERS FY16 FY17E FY18EP/E (x) 24.8 19.1 13.7

P/BV (x) 4.6 3.8 3.1

EV/Sales (x) 2.3 2.1 1.6

EV/EBITDA (x) 13.6 11.3 8.3

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1M 3M 6M6.9 15.1 44.5

Source: Bloomberg, Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Source: Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research

Last report at Rs.197 on 5 October 2016

MOLD-TEK PACKAGING LTD Analyst: [email protected]

Target Price (Rs)

260

EBITDA Margin to strengthen

Potential Upside (%)

20.4%

1 Year Performance

Share Holding Pattern (%)

IML- share to go up to 60% by FY18E

Promoter42.1%

Others57.9%

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Mold‐Tek Packaging Nifty

INVESTMENT ARGUMENT Mold Tek Packaging stands to gains in the coming years from the increasing share

of IML, backward integration and expansion in the food and FMCG industry. MTPL was the first company to offer IML technology in 2011, while others were

focusing on screen printing and heat transfer labelling (HTL). IML is a high margin(300-400bps higher) technology compared to the traditional methods.

Emerged as one of the leading manufacturers and suppliers of high quality airtightand pilfer containers/pails in India with an installed capacity of 28,800 tonnes perannum for paints, lubricants and FMCG (includes Edible Oil) industry.

Going ahead, incremental volume is likely to come from IML, thereby taking aproportion of IML shares in the overall revenue mix to 60% by the end of FY18Efrom 45% currently

Expect MTPL to continue delivering strong growth in the coming years on the backof integrated facilities and increasing revenue from the high margin FMCG industry.The stock trades at 12.6x/11.9x FY17E/FY18E earnings, and on EV/EBITDA, ittrades at 8.2x/8.0x FY17E/FY18E. We initiate coverage with BUY rating.

RISKS & CONCERNS

Slower than expected pick-up in edible oil business Slower than expected ramp-up at RAK facilities

COMPANY BACKGROUND Mold Tek Packaging is a leading manufacturer of high quality rigid plastic packagingproducts (Rigid plastic packaging) and a pioneer is Inject Mold Labelling for lubricants,paints and FMCG industry. MTPL is one of the few companies globally to havecompletely backward integrated facility. It has 7 manufacturing units in India, with aninstalled capacity of 2,400 tonnes per month and three stock points spread across Indiato ensure faster supplies. It has recently set up a plant at RAK, UAE.

SECTOR BACKGROUND Rigid Plastic Packaging Container" means any plastic package having a relativelyinflexible finite shape or form, with a minimum capacity of eight fluid ounces or itsequivalent volume and a maximum capacity of five fluid gallons or its equivalentvolume, that is capable of maintaining its shape while holding other products, including,but not limited to, bottles, cartons, and other receptacles, for sale or distribution in thestate. As per the management, the current market size of packaging industry is overRs700 bn, of which Rigid Packaging industry is about Rs212bn, which is expected togrow at 14% in the near future. Management expects flexible packaging industry tolikely register ~18% growth rate in the coming years.

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Page 14: Diwali Picks Oct 2016 - Kotak SecuritiesDIWALI PICKS - FUNDAMENTAL October 21, 2016 Nifty - Top 5 Stocks (11 Nov 15 - 20 Oct 16) Company Name Price on 11/11/15 Price on 20/10/16 %

NAGARJUNA CONSTRUCTION COMPANY LTDBUY

Current Market Price (Rs) 52 Week H/L (Rs) Mkt Cap (Rs mn)

82 91 / 56 45524

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

FINANCIALS (RS MN) FY16 FY17E FY18ESales 82,634 90,898 98,169 Growth (%) -0.3 10.0 8.0EBITDA 6,756 7,726 8,344 EBITDA margin (%) 8.2 8.5 8.5PBT 2,960 4,047 4,620 Net profit 2,229 2,671 3,049 EPS (Rs) 4.0 4.8 5.5 Growth (%) 99.4 19.8 14.2CEPS (Rs) 6.0 7.0 7.7 Book value (Rs/share) 61.2 65.7 70.7 Dividend per share (Rs) 0.4 0.4 0.4 Source: Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research

ROE (%) 6.7 7.6 8.0 ROCE (%) 15.0 14.3 14.6 Net cash (debt) (17,190) (17,276) (16,551) Net Working Capital (Days) 146.0 146.0 146.0

VALUATION PARAMETERS FY16 FY17E FY18EP/E (x) 20.5 17.1 15.0 P/BV (x) 1.3 1.2 1.2 EV/Sales (x) 0.8 0.7 0.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.3 8.1 7.4

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1M 3M 6M4.2 14.1 22.2

Source: Bloomberg, Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Source: Company

Last report at Rs.87 on 26 September 2016

Analyst: [email protected]

Target Price (Rs)

106

Segmentwise Revenue Break up (%)

Potential Upside (%)

29.3%

1 Year Performance

Share Holding Pattern (%)

Order book break up (%)

Promoter20.4%

FII26.6%

DII17.5%

Others35.5%

Roads,building,oil

44%

Water and railways

26%

Irrigation12%

Electrical7%

Internatnal10%

Power1%

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Nagarjuna Construction Company Ltd Nifty

INVESTMENT ARGUMENT Strong order book of Rs 191 bn providing visibility for two years. Order book is well diversified across roads, building, oil & gas (44%),

water & railways (26%), irrigation (12%), electrical (7%) & Int'l (10%). Company maintained it FY17 order inflow target of Rs 120 bn. Order

inflow of Rs 36 bn in Q1FY17 supports this guidance. It is quiteoptimistic on order inflows from AP/Telangana in water supply, irrigationand building segment.

Company has repaid nearly Rs 1.5 -2 bn worth of high cost debt and this resulted in 26% YoY growth in net profits for Q1FY17. Improved BalanceSheet with gross debt at Rs.18.8 bn as on 30th Jun'16 and debt/equityratio of 0.54:1.

We expect NCC to post a CAGR of 9% on revenues and 17% onreported PAT over FY16-18E.

We maintain positive bias for the stock and recommend BUY on the stock.

RISKS & CONCERNS Delays in order inflow across verticals may impact revenue growth going

forward

Delays in stake sale in road/real estate may keep debt at higher levels

COMPANY BACKGROUND Order book currently is diversified across roads, building, oil and gas,

water and railways, irrigation, electrical, mining, international, metals andpower.

SECTOR BACKGROUND Order inflow is likely to increase going forward during the fiscal due to

improvement in macro-economic climate. We expect buildings, watersupply, and irrigation to continue to witness increased activity therebyleading to better order inflows.

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Power Metals InternatnalMining Electrical IrrigationWater and railways Roads,building

Page 15: Diwali Picks Oct 2016 - Kotak SecuritiesDIWALI PICKS - FUNDAMENTAL October 21, 2016 Nifty - Top 5 Stocks (11 Nov 15 - 20 Oct 16) Company Name Price on 11/11/15 Price on 20/10/16 %

BUY

Current Market Price (Rs) 52 Week H/L (Rs) Mkt Cap (Rs mn)

588 704 / 390 102414

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

FINANCIALS (RS MN) FY16 FY17E FY18ESales 10,884 19,551 27,223 Growth (%) 42.0 79.6 39.2EBITDA 2,697 6,041 7,828 EBITDA margin (%) 23.6 30.0 28.0 PBT 2,066 5,297 6,934 Net profit 1,552 4,147 5,425 Reported EPS (Rs) 8.9 23.8 31.2 Core EPS (Rs) 8.9 14.8 23.3 Growth (%) 15.3 167.2 30.8 CEPS (Rs) 11.8 27.8 36.0 Book value (Rs/share) 74.6 98.4 129.5 Dividend per share (Rs) 1.0 1.5 2.0 Source: Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research

ROE (%) 12.0 24.2 24.1 ROCE (%) 12.6 22.3 22.7 Net cash (debt) 532 1,031 379 Net Working Capital (Days) 64.4 78.5 59.0

VALUATION PARAMETERS FY16 FY17E FY18ECore P/E (x) 66.0 39.7 25.2 P/BV (x) 7.9 6.0 4.5 EV/Sales (x) 9.5 5.3 3.8 EV/EBITDA (x) 38.2 17.1 13.1

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1M 3M 6M(7.3) 0.7 25.6

Source: Bloomberg, Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Source: Company

Revenue (Rs mn) and EBIDTA margin (%) trajectory

Potential Upside (%)

27.6%

1 Year Performance

Share Holding Pattern (%)

Revenue break up (%)

Last report at Rs.632 on 11 August 2016

NATCO PHARMA LTD Analyst: [email protected]

Target Price (Rs)

750

Promoter51.2%

FII10.9%

DII14.5%

Others23.4%

Domestic ‐Onco, 25.6

Domestic ‐Non Onco, 

7.7

US form, 11.0APIs, 33.8

Retail Pharmacies, 

12.4

RoW form, 9.5

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Natco Pharma Nifty

INVESTMENT ARGUMENT Domestic formulations segment is the largest contributor to revenues at 55% and

is expected to post 40% CAGR over FY16-18E led by ~15% CAGR in Oncosegment (23% of total revenues) and 55% CAGR in Non onco (mainly Hep Cportfolio). The Non onco segment is 32% of total revenues.

The US revenues, which are at a mere 7% of revenues at US$ 12mn, is expected to post 243% CAGR over FY16-18E. It will account for 34% of revenues by FY18E.

Strong cash flows from limited competition opportunities would not only lead to aleaner balance sheet but also augur well for future R&D expenses. We stronglybelieve that if the cash flows from these one off opportunities are channelizedwell, Natco has the potential to be amongst the big pharma companies over the next few years.

RISKS & CONCERNS We have built our model assuming approvals of key products like gCopaxone in

FY18E. If there is a delay in the approval from USFDA, it impact our revenueassumptions.

Like any Pharma company, Natco too is prone to adverse events like a WarningLetter or an Import alert from the regulatory bodies, especially, USFDA.

COMPANY BACKGROUND Natco Pharma was incorporated in Hyderabad in 1981 with an initial investment

of Rs 3.3mn and a single unit with mere 20 employees. Today, Natco Pharma Limited is a research and development (R&D)-focused pharmaceutical companywith five manufacturing facilities and an employee strength of 3,200. TheCompany is mainly engaged in developing, manufacturing and marketingfinished dosage formulations and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs).

SECTOR BACKGROUND Indian Pharma Market (IPM) stood at US$ 14.6 bn and is expected to post 13-

15% CAGR over the next 4-5 years. Moreover, US, is the largest pharma marketat ~US$390 bn, is expected to witness US$ 44bn worth drugs going off patentwhich will provide further fillip to Indian companies

Page 16: Diwali Picks Oct 2016 - Kotak SecuritiesDIWALI PICKS - FUNDAMENTAL October 21, 2016 Nifty - Top 5 Stocks (11 Nov 15 - 20 Oct 16) Company Name Price on 11/11/15 Price on 20/10/16 %

BUY

Current Market Price (Rs) 52 Week H/L (Rs) Mkt Cap (Rs mn)

125 135 / 89 6413

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

FINANCIALS (RS MN) FY16 FY17E FY18ESales 20,142 24,537 31,769 Growth (%) 29.0 21.8 29.5EBITDA 2,660 3,252 4,243 EBITDA margin (%) 13.2 13.3 13.4 PBT 2,004 2,523 3,269 Net profit 1,618 1,994 2,288 EPS (Rs) 6.3 7.8 8.9 Growth (%) 61.2 23.2 14.8 CEPS (Rs) 8.4 9.9 11.4 Book value (Rs/share) 53.1 62.0 69.9 Dividend per share (Rs) 2.9 0.9 1.0 Source: Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research

ROE (%) 15.6 13.5 13.5 Core ROCE (%) 30.5 26.4 25.9 Net cash (debt) 910 (1,297) (2,030) Net Working Capital (Days) 112 152 148

VALUATION PARAMETERS FY16 FY17E FY18EP/E (x) 19.8 16.1 14.0

P/BV (x) 2.4 2.0 1.8

EV/Sales (x) 0.3 0.3 0.3

EV/EBITDA (x) 2.1 2.4 2.0

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1M 3M 6M1.7 8.7 17.0

Source: Bloomberg, Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Source: Industry

NHAI road projects awarding

Potential Upside (%)

25.6%

1 Year Performance

Share Holding Pattern (%)

Order Book & Order Inflows trend (Rs bn)

Last report at Rs.121 on 26 September 2016

PNC INFRATECH LTD (PNC) Analyst: [email protected]

Target Price (Rs)

157

Promoter56.0%

FII6.4%

DII15.8%

Others21.8%

INVESTMENT ARGUMENT PNC has long history in the roads sector with over 15 years of

experience in executing NHAI projects. PNC has track record of timelyand before schedule completion of projects and received earlycompletion bonus.

PNC is focused on the northern region and is expected to be a strongcontender for grabbing future opportunity in road construction from pollbound states like UP and Punjab.

PNC has robust current order book of Rs 64.7 bn and further targets to add another ~Rs 40 bn of orders in the rest of the year based on robustpipeline of orders specifically in road space. This gives high revenue growth visibility for the next 2-3 years.

RISKS & CONCERNS Slowdown in road sector

Aggressive bidding of projects

Inflows of large size BOT projects

COMPANY BACKGROUND PNC Infratech Ltd (PNC) is a north India based construction company

with track record of more than 15 years in developing road projects,which contribute 99% of its current order book. PNC is currentlyexecuting 17 projects on an EPC contract basis and isdeveloping/operating 6 BOT projects and 1 OMT project. It reporteddecent CAGR of 12% in its sales and 18% in PAT in FY11-16, despite highly competitive and challenging business environment.

SECTOR BACKGROUND Awarding activity in road sector has picked up pace in the past two

years and is expected to remain firm in the next 2-3 years. In FY16, the government awarded 10000 km of road projects and in the currentfinancial year, it targets to award over 25000 km or Rs 3 trillion of road projects. This trend is expected to continue in the coming years.

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PNC Infratech Ltd Nifty

Page 17: Diwali Picks Oct 2016 - Kotak SecuritiesDIWALI PICKS - FUNDAMENTAL October 21, 2016 Nifty - Top 5 Stocks (11 Nov 15 - 20 Oct 16) Company Name Price on 11/11/15 Price on 20/10/16 %

BUY

Current Market Price (Rs) 52 Week H/L (Rs) Mkt Cap (Rs mn)

44 50 / 31 75260

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

FINANCIALS (RS MN) FY16 FY17E FY18ESales 10,521 10,351 12,191 Growth (%) NM (1.6) 17.8 EBITDA 1,056 1,164 1,916 EBITDA margin (%) 10.0 11.2 15.7 PBT 1,957 2,829 4,643 Net profit 2,047 2,730 4,356 EPS (Rs) 1.2 1.6 2.5Growth (%) 30.5 33.4 59.6 CEPS (Rs) 1.4 1.8 2.8Book value (Rs/share) 22.3 23.8 26.3 Dividend per share (Rs) - - - Source: BARC, Note: Imp. Stands for impressions in the headline above

ROE (%) 5.5 6.9 10.1 ROCE (%) 5.5 7.0 10.2 Net cash (debt) 200 2,191 5,588 Net Working Capital (Days) 74 100 113

VALUATION PARAMETERS FY16 FY17E FY18EP/E (x) 36.7 27.5 17.3 P/BV (x) 2.0 1.8 1.7 EV/Sales (x) 7.1 7.1 5.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 71.1 62.8 36.4

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1M 3M 6M1.5 11.7 13.1

Source: Bloomberg, Company, Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Source: Company

Last report at Rs.43 on 18 October 2016

TV18 BROADCAST LTD Analyst: [email protected]

Target Price (Rs)

56

Contribution to EBITDA (FY17E)

Potential Upside (%)

27.6%

1 Year Performance

Share Holding Pattern (%)

Top 10 Hindi GEC (Urban) Week 41, 2016(Imp., mn)

Promoter60.3%

FII8.9%

DII7.3%

Others23.5%

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TV18 Broadcast Ltd Nifty

INVESTMENT ARGUMENT TV18 owns one of the most attractive bouquets in the Indian TV

Broadcasting industry (news operations, 50% ownership inentertainment/ infotainment operations via JVs), and valuation (mkt. cap~Rs 70Bn) versus peers (Zee Entertainment ~Rs 520 Bn, Sun TV ~Rs 200 Bn) indicates significant scope for appreciation.

Strong performance in entertainment channels’ ratings points to strongearnings ahead: Colors, the flagship channel of Viacom18, has emergedas the #1 Hindi GEC in several weeks of 2016; regional channels toobringing in strong performance. IPO pipeline being strong is a positivesignal for business news performance. Additionally, near-term earnings will benefit from political advertising (UP elections). We expect strong earnings growth with EBITDA CAGR of 47% between FY16-FY18E.

The company is likely to report strong earnings as and when thenegative impact of recent launches fades (2HFY17). Valuations are attractive, at 17X FY18E PER (>40% discount to Zee Entertainment).Our price target implies PER of 22X FY18E.

RISKS & CONCERNS Ratings performance of key channels is the key risk.

COMPANY BACKGROUND TV18 Broadcast is amongst the largest TV broadcasting companies in

India, with presence in news as well as entertainment. The company has a 50:50 JV with Viacom ("Viacom18) which operates,

among others, Hindi GEC Colors. TV18 has bought a 50% stake in ETVentertainment channels (other than Telugu) and 100% stake in ETV News channels.

SECTOR BACKGROUND Indian TV Broadcasting is a Rs 540 Bn industry, with Rs 175 Bn in

advertising revenues. The sector is positively exposed to digitaladdressability, which should bring benefits to broadcasters/ platformproviders.

‐ o/w Standalone Operations

28%

‐ o/w Viacom 18 (50%)

60%

‐ o/w ETV Entertainmen

t (50%)7%

‐ o/w ETV News

5%

 ‐

 100

 200

 300

 400

500

StarPlus

Colors SET LifeOK

Zee TV SonySAB

&TV ZeeAnmol

SonyPal

StarUtsav

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Kotak Securities - Private Client Research For Private Circulation 6

DIWALI PICKS - FUNDAMENTAL October 21, 2016

RATING SCALE

Definitions of ratingsBUY – We expect the stock to deliver more than 12% returns over the next 9 months

ACCUMULATE – We expect the stock to deliver 5% - 12% returns over the next 9 months

REDUCE – We expect the stock to deliver 0% - 5% returns over the next 9 months

SELL – We expect the stock to deliver negative returns over the next 9 months

NR – Not Rated. Kotak Securities is not assigning any rating or price target to the stock. The report has been prepared for information purposesonly.

RS – Rating Suspended. Kotak Securities has suspended the investment rating and price target for this stock, either because there is not a suffi-cient fundamental basis for determining, or there are legal, regulatory or policy constraints around publishing, an investment rating or target.The previous investment rating and price target, if any, are no longer in effect for this stock and should not be relied upon.

NA – Not Available or Not Applicable. The information is not available for display or is not applicable

NM – Not Meaningful. The information is not meaningful and is therefore excluded.

NOTE – Our target prices are with a 9-month perspective. Returns stated in the rating scale are our internal benchmark.

Fundamental Research Team

Dipen ShahIT, [email protected]+91 22 6218 5409

Sanjeev ZarbadeCapital Goods, [email protected]+91 22 6218 6424

Teena VirmaniConstruction, [email protected]+91 22 6218 6432

Arun AgarwalAuto & Auto [email protected]+91 22 6218 6443

Ruchir KhareCapital Goods, [email protected]+91 22 6218 6431

Ritwik RaiFMCG, [email protected]+91 22 6218 6426

Sumit PokharnaOil and [email protected]+91 22 6218 6438

Amit AgarwalLogistics, Paints, [email protected]+91 22 6218 6439

Meeta Shetty, [email protected]+91 22 6218 6425

Jatin DamaniaMetals & [email protected]+91 22 6218 6440

Pankaj [email protected]+91 22 6218 6434

Nipun GuptaInformation [email protected]+91 22 6218 6433

Jayesh [email protected]+91 22 6218 5373

K. [email protected]+91 22 6218 6427

Technical Research Team

Shrikant [email protected] 22 6218 5408

Amol [email protected]+91 20 6620 3350

Derivatives Research TeamSahaj [email protected]+91 79 6607 2231

Malay [email protected]+91 22 6218 6420

Prashanth [email protected]+91 22 6218 5497

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Kotak Securities - Private Client Research For Private Circulation 7

DIWALI PICKS - FUNDAMENTAL October 21, 2016

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