distressed housing market outlook for 2014 and beyond

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Distressed Market Outlook When will distress return to normal levels and what are the biggest remaining risks to housing recovery?

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Post on 11-Nov-2014

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In this presentation given at the 2014 National Association of Mortgage Field Services in Orlando, RealtyTrac Vice President Daren Blomquist covers the latest trends in the distressed housing market and provides an outlook of the risks still remaining that could trip up the housing recovery.

TRANSCRIPT

  • 1. Distressed Market Outlook When will distress return to normal levels and what are the biggest remaining risks to housing recovery?
  • 2. What Well Cover A bit of background Normal and not-so-normal foreclosure trends Convoluted foreclosure timelines Zombie foreclosures and occupied REOs Distressed sales Underwater risk Home sales and price trends NPLs and other possible market risks
  • 3. Almost Back to Normal June 2014 at lowest level since July 2006
  • 4. Not so normal 15 states with annual increases in foreclosure starts in July
  • 5. Not so normal California REOs up for fourth consecutive month in July
  • 6. Taking Longer to Foreclose National average at 577 days, record high
  • 7. Mass Confusion
  • 8. Zombie Foreclosures
  • 9. Zombie Foreclosures About 150,000 zombies nationwide
  • 10. Zombie Foreclosures
  • 11. Occupied REOs Nationwide 51 percent of REOs are occupied, nearly 230,000.
  • 12. Distressed Sales Declining
  • 13. REO Sales Rebounding REO share of sales in July up from year ago in 22 out of 101 major U.S. housing markets.
  • 14. Foreclosure Auction Sales Soaring Still less than 1.5 percent of all U.S. home sales
  • 15. Underwater Risk 9.1 million homes with 125 percent equity or more 17 percent of all U.S. homes with mortgage 34 percent of U.S. homes in foreclosure with some equity
  • 16. Underwater Risk
  • 17. Home Prices Bouncing Higher U.S. median home price at highest level since September 2008
  • 18. Peak-Trough Perspective Home prices now 35 percent above trough But still 20 percent below previous peak.
  • 19. A Cold Shower for Hot Home Prices Price appreciation slowing compared to year ago in 65 percent of U.S. markets
  • 20. Turning Down the Sales Volume Three consecutive months with annual decreases to lowest level since September 2012
  • 21. NPL Sales More than 70,000 NPLs sold by FHA alone between 2010 and 2013
  • 22. NPL Sales Backed by properties worth a cumulative $9.6 billion
  • 23. Opposite Directions
  • 24. NPLs delaying foreclosure?
  • 25. NPLs delaying foreclosure?
  • 26. Other Risks HELOCs 16 million outstanding $79 billion coming due in next few years Resetting HAMP loan mods More than 775,000 coming to end of government subsidized period this year Typical increase expected to be $197 for monthly payments