DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES - discussion paper series paper no. 70 where does development success come from? explanations and practical implications anthony bebbington and

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  • IDPM

    DISCUSSIONPAPERSERIES

    PaperNo.70

    WHEREDOESDEVELOPMENTSUCCESSCOMEFROM?

    EXPLANATIONSANDPRACTICALIMPLICATIONS

    AnthonyBebbingtonandWillyMcCourtUniversityofManchester

    October2006

    ISBN: 1904143849

    Furtherdetails:Publishedby:

    InstituteforDevelopmentPolicyandManagementUniversityofManchesterExternalAffairsOfficeHaroldHankinsBuilding,PrecinctCentre,OxfordRoad,ManchesterM139QH,UKTel:+44(0)1612752814Email:idpm@man.ac.ukWeb:http://idpm.man.ac.uk

  • 1

    WHEREDOESDEVELOPMENTSUCCESSCOMEFROM?

    EXPLANATIONSANDPRACTICALIMPLICATIONS

    AnthonyBebbingtonandWillyMcCourt

    (NOTE:Thispaper isaslightlyreworkedversionof the finalchapterofA.Bebbington

    andW.McCourt(eds)Developmentsuccess:StatecraftintheSouth,tobepublishedby

    Palgrave in early 2007. Chapter references are to the relevant chapters of that

    collection.)

    In this paper we draw lessons from the seven cases that constitute the core of our

    edited collection, and whosemain elements are summarized in Table 1. We discuss

    whattheysuggestabout thenatureandexplanationofdevelopmentpolicysuccess in

    termsoftheframeworkwhichwedevelopedinChapter1andwithreferencetobroader

    debates in the literature. As noted in Chapter 1, our research strategy and choice of

    casesmean that our conclusionswill be tentative ones.We will openup avenues for

    furtherresearchatthesametimethatweclosedownourpresentenquiry.

  • 2

    Table1: Summaryofcasefindings

    CHAPTER COUNTRY/REGION

    NATUREOFPOLICY

    DURATION(allpoliciesextantexceptwherestated)

    EVIDENCEOFSUCCESS SUCCESSFACTORS

    2:Melo

    Brazil Cashtransfertopoorfamilies

    Firstmunicipalprogrammestarted1994federalprogrammestarted1997andsurvivedchangeofgovernment

    95%ofmunicipalitiesparticipating34millionpeoplebenefitingfromannualtransferofUS$2.2billion

    FunctionalelectoralcompetitionDesignandpoliticalincentivesEarlysocialmobilizationandleadership

    3.Hofmanetal.

    Indonesia Macroeconomicpolicy

    196797,coterminouswithSoehartoregime

    AverageGDPgrowthof7%p.a.196797povertydownfrom60%to11%ofpopulation

    Positiveinvestmentclimatecompetent,insulatedtechnocratspolicydesignpragmatismandflexibilitydonors

    4.Grindle

    LatinAmerica Industryandeducation

    Mid1980sonwards(industry)early1990sonwards(education)

    4.49%annualgrowth196580,illiteracy4215%195090successofcurrentpoliciesremainsunclear

    PolicydesignLeadershiptodislodgevestedinterests

    5.HulmeandMoore

    Bangladesh Microfinance GovernmentordinanceforGrameenBankin1984survivedchangesofgovernment

    1200+MFIs,withgoodrepaymentrates13millionpoorhouseholdsbenefitinggenderorientationempoweringwomen

    InnovationPolicyspecificationImplementationfactorsLeadershipandsocialenergy

    6.Mitlin

    Chile,Philippines,SouthAfrica

    Housing Scaleoperationbeganinmid1980s(Chile)19828(Mexico)programmessurvivedregimechangeinChileandPhilippines

    Operationatscaleupto1.4millionbeneficiaries(SouthAfrica)enhancedabilityofpoorpeopletocontestforpower

    BuildingapolicyalliancewithoutelitecaptureEmpowermentofurbanpoorgroupsandallies

    7.Shankland&Cornwall

    Brazil Health SUSenshrinedin1988constitutionsurvivedchangesofgovernment

    Universal,publiclyfundedhealthprovisiondramaticimprovementinbasichealthindicators

    PopularparticipationpreventselitecaptureofpolicyallianceProrightsbasedhealthsystempolicynetworks/epistemiccommunities

    8.Jackson

    Mozambique Participatoryplanning

    PPFDstartedin1996survivedtwoelectionsandkeypersonnelchanges

    Someeconomicimprovementincreasedstatelegitimacy

    Policycoalition

  • 3

    THENATUREANDDURABILITYOFSUCCESS

    Whatkindofsuccess?

    In our introductory chapter we suggested that how we define development success

    depends on how we define development itself. Our normative definition was the

    enhancementofhumancapabilities, inparticularfor thepeoplewhohavethegreatest

    capability deficits. Such capability enhancement, we said, could occur through direct

    investment in financial, physical, social or humancapital, or through improvements in

    the environment in which these assets are developed and used improvements that

    couldoccurthroughinitiativesasdiverseaspeacebuilding,macroeconomicreformand

    good governance programmes. We were interested in both economic and social

    development, but with the proviso that the development should be (in the jargon

    currentatthetimeofwriting)propoor.Althoughwewentontorefertothetraditional

    and contrasting public policyassumption that developmentmight also bewhatever a

    legitimatepublicactorsaiditwas,infactallourcontributorshavewritteninthespiritof

    ournormativedefinition.

    That ismarkedly the casewith a chapter like Alex Shankland and Andrea Cornwalls,

    whichcontrastsBrazilshealthreformswiththeneoliberalpoliciesprevalentelsewhere

    in Latin America, and implicitly also with Hulme and Moore, Mitlin and Jacksons

    chapters.ButitiseventrueofMerileeGrindleschapter,whichdiscussespreciselythose

    neoliberal policies in the industry and education spheres. Her critique of the state

    centredpolicieswhichtheychallengedisthatwhiletheyincreasedaccesstoeducation

    intheearlierperiod,theydidsomorefortherichthanforthepoor,andfortherural

    poor least of all. Likewise, if she ultimately reserves judgement on whether the new

    policieshavebeenasuccess,thatislargelybecausewelackevidencethattheyhaveled

    tobroadbasedgrowthorimprovedtheschoolingofpoorchildren.

    ThenormativeviewalsocharacterizestheanalysisofBertHofman,EllaR.Gudwinand

    KianWieThee,whichagainatfirstglancemightappearindifferenttothedistributional

    effects of growth. Earlier accounts of goodeconomic performance in Eastand South

    EastAsiadepartedfromprevailingfreemarketorthodoxymainlyinstressingthepositive

    rolethatgovernmentandgovernment institutionshadplayedin regulatingthemarket

  • 4

    (Wade,1990WorldBank,1993a).Hofmanandhiscolleagues,however,saythatwhat

    governmentgot rightmore thananythingelse intheperiodbeforethe crashof1997

    wasthatitsecuredhighgrowththatwasalsohighlypropoor.

    Thusournormativeviewofdevelopmentsuccessseemstohavesurvivedtheshockof

    contact with reality as represented by our seven cases. But of course even if our

    contributorsagree roughly onwhat constitutessuccesswhichmight reflectanearly

    twentyfirst century consensus on the purpose of development that is no more

    permanent than the late twentieth century Washingtonconsensus thatpreceded it

    the policies that they have chosen as their examples of success differ widely, as we

    intended thattheywould.Letusseewhethertheevidencethatourcontributorsoffer

    givesusanygroundsforcomparingexplanationsforthesuccessoftheseverydifferent

    policies.

    EvidenceofSuccess

    Inordertogeneralizeaboutsuccess,wemustfirstshowthatsuccessdidindeedoccur.

    InChapter1wesaidthatwewerelookingforcaseswhichhadthefollowingfeatures:

    Theywouldtargettheenhancementofhumancapabilities, inparticular for the

    peoplewhohavethegreatestcapabilitydeficits

    They should do so on a large scale: this might entail scaleup from an initial

    policyexperiment

    The policies would have been implemented over at least ten years, and

    preferably across at least one change of government: policy duration was

    important

    Theywouldpreferablyhavesucceededagainsttheoddsthatis,atthepointof

    inceptionareasonableobserverwouldhavepredictedthatsuccesswasunlikely

    We list our contributors evidence in the above order, starting with two forms of

    evidence of enhancement of human capabilities (readers may want to refer again to

    Table1,wheremostofthisevidenceissummarized).

  • 5

    1. Impact on income or other human development indicators, arguably themost

    importantformofevidence.Whilewemustofcourseallowfortheusualproblem

    ofdemonstratingacausalrelationshipbetweenapolicyandaparticularoutcome

    somethingthatDavidHulmeandKarenMooredealwiththoroughly,andthat

    David Jackson also discusses our authors, experts in their respective policy

    domains, are confident that some such causal link exists. Some of themmay

    have hoped for greater impacts (DianaMitlin'sdiscussioncomes tomind), but

    the chapters do suggest that improvements in indicators of health, shelter,

    income, nutrition and other outcomes can be attributed to the policies they

    discuss.

    2. Socialandpolitical impact.AlthoughHulmeandMoorepresentevidenceof the

    economic impact of microfinance, they also say that it often seemsas if this

    fundamentally economic approach has performed best in the social domain,

    particularly inwomens empowerment. Similarly, Jacksonargues that themost

    importantsuccessoftheNampulaexperimenthasbeeninthepoliticalsphere,in

    theway inwhich theexperimenthasenhancedthe legitimacyofthestate ina

    countrywhichisstillrecoveringfromalongcivilwarandinaprovincewhichhad

    beenbypassedbyboththe independencestruggleandthe initialpoliciesofthe

    FRELIMOgovernment.Theimplicitargumentsherearethatthereareimportant

    individual social benefits such as increased confidence andparticipationwhich

    humandevelopmentindicatorsfailtocapture,andthattherearealsocollective

    politicalbenefitswhicharedifferentfromthesumofthebenefitstoindividuals.

    3. Scaleup:anindicationthatinitiativesthatbeganlifeinapolicytesttubewere

    rolled out on a large scale. Cash transfers in Brazil existed only in Senator

    EduardoSuplicysfertileimagination inthelate1980s,butby200295percent

    of municipalities had such a scheme (Chapter 2). The Grameen Bank in

    Banglades

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