Disaster Risk Reduction & Climate Adaptation

Disaster Risk Reduction & Climate Adaptation

Quantifying the BenefitsQuantifying the Benefits

www.climate-transitions.orgwww.i-s-e-t.org

Conceptual Starting PointConceptual Starting Point

Adaptation is not “coping” – in well adapted systems people and the environmental and other features they value are “doing well”

“Doing well” as variability and extreme events increase with climate change will require effective strategies for disaster risk reduction Weather related events already account for 70% of

disasters Disasters are a major factor contributing to endemic

poverty in many parts of the world.

Adaptation is not “coping” – in well adapted systems people and the environmental and other features they value are “doing well”

“Doing well” as variability and extreme events increase with climate change will require effective strategies for disaster risk reduction Weather related events already account for 70% of

disasters Disasters are a major factor contributing to endemic

poverty in many parts of the world.

The Practical ChallengeThe Practical Challenge

The conceptual part is easy

Translating concepts to action isn’t

Practical Methodologies are Essential

“Buzzwords” abound -- but what does DRR or “adaptation” mean?

The Risk to Resilience ProjectThe Risk to Resilience Project

Case Studies Rawlpindi, Pakistan Rohini River, U.P. Bagmati, Nepal-Bihar

Collaboration ISET ISET-Nepal IIASA KCL WII GEAG PIEDAR

Case Studies Rawlpindi, Pakistan Rohini River, U.P. Bagmati, Nepal-Bihar

Collaboration ISET ISET-Nepal IIASA KCL WII GEAG PIEDAR

The MethodologyThe Methodology Shared Learning Dialogues (SLDs) to translate climate

change projections into locally meaningful terms Detailed vulnerability analyses Identification of DRR options through SLDs Qualitative identification of major cost and benefit areas

through transects, SLDs, secondary data, etc… Detailed survey of site characteristics, assets, etc… Downscaling of Climate Change Scenarios Hydrologic modeling to identify impacts Backward and forward looking Cost-Benefit analysis

Shared Learning Dialogues (SLDs) to translate climate change projections into locally meaningful terms

Detailed vulnerability analyses Identification of DRR options through SLDs Qualitative identification of major cost and benefit areas

through transects, SLDs, secondary data, etc… Detailed survey of site characteristics, assets, etc… Downscaling of Climate Change Scenarios Hydrologic modeling to identify impacts Backward and forward looking Cost-Benefit analysis

Learning

Local ExperienceScientific Knowledge

SharedLearning Act

Monitor, document & reflect

Monitor, document& reflect

Monitor, document& reflectAct

Act

Adapted from Lewin 1946: “Action research and minority problems”

SharedLearning

Shared Learning

Time

Shared Learning ProcessShared Learning Process

Sample Quantitative ResultsSample Quantitative Results

Cost Benefit Results @ 10% discount rate Approximate C/B R atio

Climate Change

Uttar Pradesh Flood Management Embankment Construction (with externalities included – without about 4) 1 Declines? Embankment Maintenance 2 Robust Distributed mix of community-based interventions 2.5 Increases

Uttar Pradesh Drought Management Groundwater Ir rigation (r isk reduction alone) 1.6 Increases (2) Insurance 2 Declines (1.2) Combined 2.2 Stable

Rawlpindi Urban Flood Management Expressway/Channel 1.88 Declines? Community pond 8.55 ???? River improvement 25 Improves? Early Warning (gold plated) 0.96 ??? Relocation/Restoration 1.34 Improves?

True but overly simplistic

Not all approaches are resilient under changing climatic conditions

Results of detailed CBAs indicate investment in risk reduction can generate high rates of return

Not all approaches benefit everyone - particularly the poor

Not all DRR is robust with different assumptions & Climate Change

Not all DRR is robust with different assumptions & Climate Change

Differing levels of information on events required (probabilities)

Sensitivity to thresholds (embankments)

Potential for negative externalities

Differing levels of information on events required (probabilities)

Sensitivity to thresholds (embankments)

Potential for negative externalities

Not all All Approaches Benefit EveryoneNot all All Approaches Benefit Everyone

Structural protection -- displaces impacts on those outside protective structures & can lead to behaviors that increase vulnerability

Insurance -- hard to get down to the poorest Early warning -- can’t always reach key groups Groundwater development -- particularly

benefits middle farmers

Structural protection -- displaces impacts on those outside protective structures & can lead to behaviors that increase vulnerability

Insurance -- hard to get down to the poorest Early warning -- can’t always reach key groups Groundwater development -- particularly

benefits middle farmers

Most approaches involve social tradeoffs

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erTransect 3: Settlements along Lal Bakaiya River

Qualitative CBA TransectsQualitative CBA Transects

Transect 1: The Bairgania Ring BundTransect 1: The Bairgania Ring Bund

+, - -

(+, - -)

(+, - - -)

(+, - - -)

(+ + +,- )

(+ +, -)

(+, - - -)

(+ +,-) (- - -)

(+ + +)

Transect 2: Settlements along Bagmati RiverTransect 2: Settlements along Bagmati River

(+ +,- -)(- - -)

(+,- -)

(+ +, -)

Transect 3: Settlements along Lal Bakaiya RiverTransect 3: Settlements along Lal Bakaiya River

Robust approachesRobust approaches

address the systemic factors creating vulnerability

respond to recurrent sources of variability have low dependence on specific climate

projections

address the systemic factors creating vulnerability

respond to recurrent sources of variability have low dependence on specific climate

projections

Many such approaches are community based

Questionable DRR ApproachesQuestionable DRR Approaches

Warning signals that DRR may not work include strategies that involve: Dependence on specific event characteristics Long lead times High initial investments Long-term institutional dependence Large distributional consequences

Warning signals that DRR may not work include strategies that involve: Dependence on specific event characteristics Long lead times High initial investments Long-term institutional dependence Large distributional consequences

Climate Risk Management RequiresClimate Risk Management Requires

A mix of strategies Distributed CBDRM as well as centralized Systemic as well as targeted Financial & institutional as well as infrastructure Risk spreading as well as risk reduction

Approaches that are tailored to specific contexts and sources of vulnerability

Tangibility rather than generalizations

A mix of strategies Distributed CBDRM as well as centralized Systemic as well as targeted Financial & institutional as well as infrastructure Risk spreading as well as risk reduction

Approaches that are tailored to specific contexts and sources of vulnerability

Tangibility rather than generalizations