Digital Aviation ServicesDigital Aviation ServicesPaving the way for aviation forecasts of the futurePaving the way for aviation forecasts of the future

Cammye SimsCammye Sims

Enhanced Digital ServicesEnhanced Digital ServicesRoadmapRoadmap

Enhanced Short Term ForecastingEnhanced Short Term Forecasting• Detailed hourly grids – updated at a minimum Detailed hourly grids – updated at a minimum

every 3 hoursevery 3 hours

Digital Aviation Services Digital Aviation Services • Adding aviation elements to the National Adding aviation elements to the National

Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)

The Enhanced Short-Term ConceptThe Enhanced Short-Term Concept

• Keep the forecast “fresh”Keep the forecast “fresh”

• Focus onFocus on “high impact” “high impact” weather events – to weather events – to support Decision Support Servicessupport Decision Support Services

• Be as definitive and detailed as possible within the Be as definitive and detailed as possible within the next 36 hoursnext 36 hours• Detailed hourly grids are a must – updated every 3 Detailed hourly grids are a must – updated every 3

hourshours

• Tight gradientsTight gradients

• Collaborate meteorology!Collaborate meteorology!

Why Enhanced Short-Term?Why Enhanced Short-Term?

Forecast should be Forecast should be representative at representative at T=0!T=0!

Update was issued Update was issued less than one hour less than one hour ago!ago!

Digital Aviation ServicesDigital Aviation ServicesThere is a demand for this informationThere is a demand for this information!!

What are Digital What are Digital Aviation ServicesAviation Services

• Adding aviation Adding aviation elements to the elements to the National Digital National Digital Forecast Database Forecast Database (NDFD)(NDFD)• Provide hourly Provide hourly

graphical forecasts of graphical forecasts of ceiling and visibility out ceiling and visibility out to 36 hoursto 36 hours

• TAFs are generated TAFs are generated from the database with from the database with forecaster oversightforecaster oversight

Hourly Graphical ForecastsHourly Graphical Forecasts

A benefit for more than aviation!A benefit for more than aviation!

Why Digital Aviation Services?Why Digital Aviation Services?• Moves toward the NextGen Moves toward the NextGen

requirement of a National requirement of a National Digital Ceiling and Visibility Digital Ceiling and Visibility GridGrid

• Build a National Ceiling and Build a National Ceiling and Visibility Grid with 2-way Visibility Grid with 2-way collaboration from National collaboration from National Centers and WFOsCenters and WFOs

• Important guidance tool for Important guidance tool for medical services, search and medical services, search and rescue, and General Aviationrescue, and General Aviation

• Improves NWS forecast Improves NWS forecast consistency with aviation consistency with aviation forecasts and beyondforecasts and beyond

Collaboration Collaboration Met Watch Offices and WFOsMet Watch Offices and WFOs

Who is Producing Aviation Grids? Who is Producing Aviation Grids?

Operational Operational

Current Test PhaseCurrent Test Phase

Planned testing by end of FY16Planned testing by end of FY16

Operations AssessmentOperations AssessmentCustomers noticing a difference Customers noticing a difference

• Increased consistency between TAFs and other products Increased consistency between TAFs and other products

• More frequent and proactive updatesMore frequent and proactive updates

• Forecast information available for any point in forecast Forecast information available for any point in forecast domaindomain

• Users can take the gridded database and create their own Users can take the gridded database and create their own forecast products and displaysforecast products and displays

• ““We have clearly noticed improved TAF performance and We have clearly noticed improved TAF performance and improved consistency in all public forecast products in the improved consistency in all public forecast products in the Boston area since NWS has been producing TAFs from the Boston area since NWS has been producing TAFs from the ceiling and visibility grids.” ceiling and visibility grids.” - - Rick Curtis, Chief Meteorologist, Rick Curtis, Chief Meteorologist, Southwest AirlinesSouthwest Airlines

Operations AssessmentOperations AssessmentForecaster Assessment and Feedback Forecaster Assessment and Feedback

• Verification results are encouraging – equal or better Verification results are encouraging – equal or better scoresscores

• Increased use of hi-res modelsIncreased use of hi-res models

• Already seeing significant benefits to partners and Already seeing significant benefits to partners and customerscustomers

• TAFs and grids consistentTAFs and grids consistent

• Produce consistent forecasts across the user spectrumProduce consistent forecasts across the user spectrum

• Hourly NDFD grids availableHourly NDFD grids available

• Produce the best grids possible for all usersProduce the best grids possible for all users

• GSD Projects GSD Projects

• Digital Aviation Services: Digital Aviation Services: • Analysis grids – analyze available options and Analysis grids – analyze available options and

provide gap analysis provide gap analysis

• Smart Tool enhancements Smart Tool enhancements

• TAF Formatter Enhancements and clean upTAF Formatter Enhancements and clean up

• Porting IC4D to AWIPS II: Porting IC4D to AWIPS II: • Formatter development and improvementsFormatter development and improvements

• Adding IC4D Components to Hazard Services Adding IC4D Components to Hazard Services and GFEand GFE

Aviation Funded Projects – FY16Aviation Funded Projects – FY16

• Verification Projects with GSD and MDLVerification Projects with GSD and MDL

• Lead time to onset and cessation of thunderstorms Lead time to onset and cessation of thunderstorms within 75nm of FAA Core Airports and Jet Routeswithin 75nm of FAA Core Airports and Jet Routes

• Real time verification for the following elements:Real time verification for the following elements:• Ceiling Heights, Ceiling Categories, and VisibilityCeiling Heights, Ceiling Categories, and Visibility

• Temperature, Dew Point Temperature, Sky CoverTemperature, Dew Point Temperature, Sky Cover

• Wind: Speed, Direction, and Gusts Wind: Speed, Direction, and Gusts

• High Wind Warning, Relative HumidityHigh Wind Warning, Relative Humidity

Aviation Funded Projects – FY16Aviation Funded Projects – FY16

Current and Future InitiativesCurrent and Future Initiatives

• Coordinate the national Coordinate the national requirements for Enhanced requirements for Enhanced Digital ServicesDigital Services

• Assess new guidance tools e.g. Assess new guidance tools e.g. - Gridded LAMP, and high - Gridded LAMP, and high resolution numerical model resolution numerical model outputoutput

• Enhance verification for the Enhance verification for the futurefuture

• AAWU/AWC/HNL to AAWU/AWC/HNL to produce forecasts from produce forecasts from national Ceiling and Visibility national Ceiling and Visibility grids using IC4D/GFEgrids using IC4D/GFE

Special ThanksSpecial Thanks

Thomas LeFevbre, GSDThomas LeFevbre, GSD Tracy Hansen, GSDTracy Hansen, GSD Sarah Pontius, GSDSarah Pontius, GSD Ben Schwedler, AWCBen Schwedler, AWC Steven Lack, AWCSteven Lack, AWC Austin Cross, AWCAustin Cross, AWC WFOs BOX, GSP, TBW, HNLWFOs BOX, GSP, TBW, HNL