did the online election campaign fail?

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  • Did the Online Election Campaign Fail?:

    a Survey Analysis of the Effects of the Online Campaign in the 2013 Japan Upper House Election

    Morihiro OGASAHARA

    2014 ANPOR Annual Conference, Niigata, Japan

    29, November, 2014

  • Background

    2013 Japan Upper House Election The interest was low level

    The first online election campaign in Japan

    Expectations for online election campaign increase the political interest of voters

    enhance the importance of political issues

    promote dialogues between candidates and voters

  • Voter turnout

    52.1% (third-lowest since WW2)

    Failure of the online election campaign?

  • Research Questions

    How much was the exposure?

    To the online election campaign

    How much was the effect?

    To political interest

    To voting behavior

    To party support change

  • Research Methods

    2-wave panel survey

    1st wave: before the election (6/29 ~ 6/30)

    2nd wave: after the election (7/21 ~ 7/22)

    Sample

    Online survey panel of the research company

    1st : 2,691 respondents

    2nd: 1,523 respondents (56.6% of 1st )

  • Variables

    Dependent variables

    Political interest at 2nd wave

    Voting behavior

    Party support change

    Independent variables

    Political interest at 1st wave

    Exposure to electoral information

    TV, newspaper, conversation, election campaign

  • Exposure rate to traditional sources

    Television was the highest

    Offline election campaign 59.0%

    (%)

  • Exposure rate to online election campaign

    Rather low as a whole

    Online election campaign 18.3%

    (%)

  • To political interest

    Positive effect

    Regression model explaining political interest(2nd) t

    Intercept) 9.713 ***

    Age 0.026 1.426

    Sex -0.079 -4.238 ***

    Political interest (1st) 0.619 31.219 ***

    Television 0.041 1.999 *

    Newspaper 0.055 2.559 *

    Conversation 0.100 4.530 ***

    Offline election campaign 0.029 1.311

    Online election campaign 0.041 2.132 *

    Adjusted R2 0.537

    p

  • To voting behavior

    Positive effect

    Logistic regression model

    p

  • B SE

    Intercept) -2.143 0.342 ***

    Age 0.007 0.005

    Sex 0.015 0.116

    Political interest (1st) 0.180 0.056 **

    Television 0.621 0.174 ***

    Newspaper 0.204 0.129

    Conversation 0.190 0.134

    Offline election campaign 0.188 0.136

    Online election campaign 0.322 0.149 *

    Nagelkelke R2 0.093

    To party support change

    Positive effect

    Logistic regression model

    p

  • Discussion

    Push or pull Push media: passive

    Pull media: active

    One-way or two-way One-way: audience

    Two-way: participant

    Short term or long term Short term: election

    Long term: engagement

  • Conclusion

    The online election campaign succeeded in fact

    Statistically significant positive effects

    More effective than traditional sources

    Online election campaign should be conducted in suitable ways

    Integrate online and offline

    Build relationships

    Connect with voters social network, COI

  • Thank you for your attention!

    E-mai: m36oga@kansai-u.ac.jp