Did the online election campaign fail?

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<ul><li><p>Did the Online Election Campaign Fail?: </p><p> a Survey Analysis of the Effects of the Online Campaign in the 2013 Japan Upper House Election </p><p>Morihiro OGASAHARA </p><p>2014 ANPOR Annual Conference, Niigata, Japan </p><p>29, November, 2014 </p></li><li><p>Background </p><p> 2013 Japan Upper House Election The interest was low level </p><p> The first online election campaign in Japan </p><p> Expectations for online election campaign increase the political interest of voters </p><p> enhance the importance of political issues </p><p> promote dialogues between candidates and voters </p></li><li><p>Voter turnout </p><p> 52.1% (third-lowest since WW2) </p><p>Failure of the online election campaign? </p></li><li><p>Research Questions </p><p> How much was the exposure? </p><p> To the online election campaign </p><p> How much was the effect? </p><p> To political interest </p><p> To voting behavior </p><p> To party support change </p></li><li><p>Research Methods </p><p> 2-wave panel survey </p><p> 1st wave: before the election (6/29 ~ 6/30) </p><p> 2nd wave: after the election (7/21 ~ 7/22) </p><p> Sample </p><p> Online survey panel of the research company </p><p> 1st : 2,691 respondents </p><p> 2nd: 1,523 respondents (56.6% of 1st ) </p></li><li><p>Variables </p><p> Dependent variables </p><p> Political interest at 2nd wave </p><p> Voting behavior </p><p> Party support change </p><p> Independent variables </p><p> Political interest at 1st wave </p><p> Exposure to electoral information </p><p> TV, newspaper, conversation, election campaign </p></li><li><p>Exposure rate to traditional sources </p><p> Television was the highest </p><p>Offline election campaign 59.0% </p><p>(%) </p></li><li><p>Exposure rate to online election campaign </p><p> Rather low as a whole </p><p>Online election campaign 18.3% </p><p>(%) </p></li><li><p>To political interest </p><p> Positive effect </p><p> Regression model explaining political interest(2nd) t</p><p>Intercept) 9.713 ***</p><p>Age 0.026 1.426</p><p>Sex -0.079 -4.238 ***</p><p>Political interest (1st) 0.619 31.219 ***</p><p>Television 0.041 1.999 *</p><p>Newspaper 0.055 2.559 *</p><p>Conversation 0.100 4.530 ***</p><p>Offline election campaign 0.029 1.311</p><p>Online election campaign 0.041 2.132 *</p><p>Adjusted R2 0.537</p><p>p</p></li><li><p>To voting behavior </p><p> Positive effect </p><p> Logistic regression model </p><p>p</p></li><li><p>B SE</p><p>Intercept) -2.143 0.342 ***</p><p>Age 0.007 0.005</p><p>Sex 0.015 0.116</p><p>Political interest (1st) 0.180 0.056 **</p><p>Television 0.621 0.174 ***</p><p>Newspaper 0.204 0.129</p><p>Conversation 0.190 0.134</p><p>Offline election campaign 0.188 0.136</p><p>Online election campaign 0.322 0.149 *</p><p>Nagelkelke R2 0.093</p><p>To party support change </p><p> Positive effect </p><p> Logistic regression model </p><p>p</p></li><li><p>Discussion </p><p> Push or pull Push media: passive </p><p> Pull media: active </p><p> One-way or two-way One-way: audience </p><p> Two-way: participant </p><p> Short term or long term Short term: election </p><p> Long term: engagement </p></li><li><p>Conclusion </p><p> The online election campaign succeeded in fact </p><p> Statistically significant positive effects </p><p> More effective than traditional sources </p><p> Online election campaign should be conducted in suitable ways </p><p> Integrate online and offline </p><p> Build relationships </p><p> Connect with voters social network, COI </p></li><li><p>Thank you for your attention! </p><p>E-mai: m36oga@kansai-u.ac.jp </p></li></ul>