dhl houston gh copy - etouches...“as we have written for some time, we expect all car companies...
TRANSCRIPT
glen hiemstra
…rather than a search for a truly new future
most planning is a search for a more efficient past...
Glen HiemstraDISRUPTION
$92
$28$46?
energy future
These are “epic times in the oil market,” said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData in 2015
“As we have written for some time, we expect all car companies would eventually see nearly 100 percent of their revenues shift from the sale of human-driven/individually-owned cars to robot-driven/shared cars.”
- Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley, Aug. 17, 2015
- www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/tesla-uber-rival_55d1e72fe4b0ab468d9db3fd
science fiction arriving
New York 1900 New York 1920
what is your image of the future?
probable?
possible?
preferred?
not a mystery
social driving forces...
❏ U.S. middle class squeeze - global growth ❏ millennials come of age, 75% of workforce in 2025 ❏ intelligence in everything ❏ power of connectivity ❏ regulation and cheaper renewable energy
key driving technologies...
❏ energy efficiency ❏ demand side management ❏ smart grids and cities ❏ convergence of IT and distribution ❏ falling solar prices
• STEEP• society & demographics• technology & science• economy & markets• environment & energy• politics, regulation &
government
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Pop
ulat
ion
(bill
ions
)
Year
Population Growth Less Developed Regions
More Developed Regions
2010 2030 2050
people of the screen...will not accept old limitations
world population growth, by age, to 2050
Percent
Under 15
15-64
Over 65
0 50 100 150 200
Photo http://blogs.ft.com/photo-diary/2013/10/older-persons-day/
loving cities
nano | bio | info | cogno | robo | space
3D | connectivity | convergence
internet of everything In the next 20 years PC’s will be replaced by millions of tiny intelligent systems embedded in our clothes, jewelry, cars, furniture, and walls. They will recognize voice commands and carry out simple wishes. They will cost less than a penny, less than scrap paper, so companies which do not put chips [intelligence] in all their products will be at a severe disadvantage. Michio Kaku, 1998
what is internet of everything?
platform for devices to communicate with the world around them and to integrate human, natural and built worlds
when things are smart
http://www.districtoffuture.eu/uploads/imagenes/imagenes_meetinpoint_smart-city_2b637ab6.jpg
smart city
when things are smarthttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3659201/Rolls-Royce-reveals-remote-controlled-roboship-augmented-reality-central-control-deck-hundreds-miles-away-sea-2020.html
when things are smart
phonosapiens
33 per 1002005
97 per 1002015
more connection = more innovation more inventions more opportunity
Ideas Multiply Resource Access
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1972 2002 2011 2030(projected)
Barrelso
fOilPe
rPersonPe
rYear BarrelsofOilPerPersonPerYear
Colfert
disintermediation, disruption displacement
$62 Billion $20 BillionUBER
what can be shared will be shared
environmental imperative
how will we power a smart future?
Cost of Solar Power$77.00
$0.36
200 x Price Decline
Grid parity
“Renewables are now…..deflationary to energy prices.” - UBS
LOWER COST HIGHER DENSITY
BATTERYPRICE(10xdecline)
ENERGY
STORED
PERGRA
M(3x)
Solar City Giga Factory, Buffalo NY 2017
cost trends plus technology plus environment issues plus optimizing resources suggest continued energy turbulence, transitions…
requiring great resilience and continuous examination of your mission and business models and lean operations in the coming years
what is your image of the future?
the future is not something that just happens to us
the future is something we do
www.futurist.com
twitter.com/glenhiemstra
linkedin.com/glenhiemstra
thank you for your time
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