DG  AGRI  Citrus  Expert  WG  6  November  2014  

         Philippe  Binard  

Freshfel  Europe  

Southern  Hemisphere    Export  season  2014  

Argen&na  

•  Season  influenced  by    – Severe  frost  impac&ng  produc&on  

•  Lemons  :  650.000    T  in  2014  (  1.150.000  T  in  2015  )  •  Oranges  :  600.000  T  (  1.000.000  T  )  •  SoE  citrus  :    260.000  T  (  500.000  T)  •  Grapefruit  :    60.000  T  (  100.000  )  

– Economic  situa&on    (  internal  costs,  delays  in  tax  refunds  to  exporters,…)  

South  Africa  •  Season  influenced  by  :  

–  CBS    &  introduc&on  on  a  new  RMS  –  Citrus  remain  the  main  fruit  category  exported  by  SA  (  58%  or  1.140.000  T  )  –  Oranges    

•  Declined  in  the  EU    by  14%  to  420.000T,  similar  to  2011    as  well  as  for  for  Russia.    •  compensated  by  increase  to  Asia    (  navel  +  44%  and  valencia  +  18%  for  a  total  export  of  118.000  T)    

•  M-­‐E  being  stable  at  245.000  T  

–  Lemons  :  record  volume  exported  (  +22%    to  all  des&na&ons  at  200.000  T  )  but  +29%  to  the  EU  at    2,7  million  cartons  

–  SoE  citrus  :  total  export  up  by  17%  (  +2%  in  the  EU,  down  to  Russia  and  up  in  Asia  ,  M-­‐E  and  USA  )  

–  Grapefruit  :  down  by  16  %  ,  including  to  the  EU  (  -­‐20%)  

 

Other  Southern  Hemisphere  •  Peru  :    

–  on-­‐going  increased  of  soE  citrus  (  satsumas  ,murco])  while  minoeolas  are  decreasing  

–   expected  lower  produc&on  in  2015  due  to  alternate    crop  ?      •  Uruguay  :  

–   total  export  113.000  T(  ca  35.000  T  to  the  EU),  –   opening  of  the  US  market,    –  good  outlook  in  Russia  and  Brazil    

Country 2011 (Jan-Aug) 2012 (Jan-Aug) 2013 (Jan-Aug) 2014 (Jan-Aug) 2014/2013 2014/A3Y

South Africa 316.229 332.878 371.569 312.037 -16% -8% Argentina 200.458 192.847 206.685 107.186 -48% -46% Peru 36.106 40.310 42.232 43.798 4% 11% Uruguay 45.006 39.711 43.140 33.238 -23% -22% Brazil 50.835 50.503 56.412 62.805 11% 19% Chile 2.476 3.410 3.858 1.934 -50% -40% Australia 62 250 166 442 166% 177% Total 651.172 659.910 724.061 561.440 -22% -17%

0  

50.000  

100.000  

150.000  

200.000  

250.000  

300.000  

350.000  

400.000  

South  Africa    

Argen&na   Peru   Uruguay   Brazil   Chile     Australia  

Export  of  citrus  from  SH  to  EU    (Jan  -­‐Aug)  

2011  

2012  

2013  

2014  

EU28 import volume of fresh sweet oranges from SH Jan-Aug Exporter 2011 (Jan-Aug) 2012 (Jan-Aug) 2013 (Jan-Aug) 2014 (Jan-Aug) 2014/2013 2014/A3Y

South Africa 147.312 180.596 192.922 140.776 -27% -19% Argentina 36.209 27.668 26.348 17.047 -35% -43% Uruguay 19.365 14.350 21.632 12.205 -44% -34% Brazil 8.786 3.782 9.796 6.771 -31% -9% Peru 3.315 1.755 4.994 4.153 -17% 24% Chile 98 750 85 50 -41% -84% Australia 62 246 1 44 4320% -57% TOTAL 215.148 229.147 255.778 181.047 -29% -22%

0  

20.000  

40.000  

60.000  

80.000  

100.000  

120.000  

140.000  

160.000  

180.000  

200.000  

South  Africa   Argen&na   Uruguay   Brazil   Peru  

Export  of  SH  oranges  to  the  EU  

2011  

2012  

2013  

2014  

EU28 import volume of soft citrus from SH Jan-Aug Exporter 2011 (Jan-Aug) 2012 (Jan-Aug) 2013 (Jan-Aug) 2014 (Jan-Aug) 2014/2013 2014/A3Y South Africa 50.401 54.767 63.414 65.856 4% 17% Peru 32.521 38.223 36.899 39.472 7% 10% Uruguay 19.627 16.603 14.149 14.126 0% -16% Argentina 27.333 20.632 13.133 11.034 -16% -46% Australia 3 165 398 141% 609% Chile 734 215 530 234 -56% -53% New Zealand 11 4 4 6 69% 2% Brazil 102 238 112 0 -100% -100% TOTAL 130.728 130.685 128.405 131.126 2% 1%

0  

10.000  

20.000  

30.000  

40.000  

50.000  

60.000  

70.000  

2011   2012   2013   2014  

SoN  citrus  export  from  SH  to  the  EU  

South  Africa  

Peru  

Uruguay  

Argen&na  

SA  moderate  increase  to  the  EU  compared  to  total  

export  

EU28 import volume of lemons and limes from SH Jan-Aug Exporter 2011 (Jan-Aug) 2012 (Jan-Aug) 2013 (Jan-Aug) 2014 (Jan-Aug) 2014/2013 2014/A3Y Argentina 128.960 143.085 166.147 79.047 -52% -46% Brazil 42.049 46.721 46.616 56.033 20% 24% South Africa 32.360 28.017 21.281 29.486 39% 8% Uruguay 6.014 8.758 7.359 6.908 -6% -6% Chile 1.627 2.292 3.138 1.586 -49% -33% Peru 269 333 339 173 -49% -45% TOTAL 211.280 229.206 244.879 173.232 -29% -24%

0  

20.000  

40.000  

60.000  

80.000  

100.000  

120.000  

140.000  

160.000  

180.000  

2011   2012   2013   2014  

Export  of  lemons/limes  to  the  EU  

Argen&na  

Brazil  

South  Africa  

Uruguay  

Argen&na  total  export  2014  =  152.000  T  

EU28 import volume of grapefruit from SH Jan-Aug Exporter 2011 (Jan-Aug) 2012 (Jan-Aug) 2013 (Jan-Aug) 2014 (Jan-Aug) 2014/2013 2014/A3Y South Africa 86.155 69.499 93.952 75.919 -19% -9% Chile 18 152 105 64 -39% -30% Argentina 7.956 1.463 1.057 59 -94% -98% TOTAL 94.129 71.114 95.115 76.042 -20% -12%

0  10.000  20.000  30.000  40.000  50.000  60.000  70.000  80.000  90.000  100.000  

2011   2012   2013   2014  

Grapefruit  -­‐  South  Africa  

Northern  Hemisphere    Outlook  on  producRon  

2014-­‐2015  

Northern  Hemisphere    (  MED+USA  )  

Total citrus production Med+ USA expected to decline by 4% reaching 28,7 million T

Northern  Hemisphere    (  MED+USA  )  

Oranges  61%  

SoN  citrus  22%  

Lemons    11%  

Grapefruits  6%  

Citrus  categories  in  %    

Categories Mio T var YAGO Oranges 17,3 -5% Soft citrus 6,3 -1% Lemons 3,4 -5% Grapefruits 1,7 -6% Total 28,7 -4%

Northern  Hemisphere    (  MED+USA  )  

-­‐10  %  

-­‐3  %  +2%  

Northern  Hemisphere    (  MED+USA  )  

•  Some  punctual  difference  on  data  Freshfel  –CLAM  given  different  &me  of  collec&ng  data  or  some  varia&on  of  sources    

•  Common  difficul&es  in  2014  for  several  non  EU  countries  :  Egypt  ,  Morroco  ,  but  also  uncertain&es  in  regard  to  Turkey    

Northern  Hemisphere    (MED+USA)  

early  start    2,7%  less    -­‐  all  except  grapefruit  Good  size  and  quality    

Decrease    to  last  year  ,  blood  or.  (  -­‐40  to  60  %)    navel  (  -­‐20  to  30  %)    lemons  /  soE  citrus    by  20  to  30%  

Reduce  navel/navelina    Larger  size.  less  clemen&ne    more  nova  /ortanique  

Lemon  =  clear  mandora  =  uncertain    

Northern  Hemisphere    (  MED+USA  )  

   

Precosity  2  weeks  Delay  in  forecast  Good  in  North    

Drought  in  South        

20%  up  Heavy  fruit  set  /thining  

Grapefruit    down    Low  disease    

 

Early  start  Unclear  data  

Mixed  messages    

????????????  

Northern  Hemisphere    (  MED+USA  )  

Greening    Oranges+  3%  at  108  moi  box  

Grapefruit  down  by  4%  at  30  mio    

 Stable  produc&on  

Oranges  &  grapefruit    

 

Drought    Navel  up  3%    &  Valencia    -­‐9%  

Clemen&nes  +10%  Lemons  stable  

 Citrus  season  2014/2015  in  perspecRve  of  Russian  ban    

 

Russia F&V trade  Comments : •  Unprecedented situation : the second largest importer of F&V is suspending its main supplier •  In the country affected by the embargo, the EU is the only one in the top 10

Russia F&V trade  

1.000.000  T  

100.000-­‐130.000  T  

Russia  trade  in  F&V  

0,00  

50.000,00  

100.000,00  

150.000,00  

200.000,00  

250.000,00  

300.000,00  

01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12  

Export  to  Russia  per  month  in  T  (2013)  

Delegated    RegulaRon  1031/2014    max  96.090  T  for  citrus  

181.800 76.895 48.300 96.090

AlternaRve  markets  

The  «  solidarity  »  principle  (the  embargo  countries):    

–  USA  :  SPS  (  current  EU  export  110.000  T  )  –  Canada  :  SPS  (  current  EU  export  38.000  T  )  –  Japan  :  SPS  (  current  EU  export  8.000  T  )  –  Australia  :  SPS  (  current  EU  export  8.000  T  )  –  (Norway):  no  major  problem  (  current  EU  export  300.000  T  )  

Fruit and vegetable exports from selected markets to Russia in T Fruit Fruit Vegetables Vegetables Total F&V Total F&V

Exporter 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 United States 18.051 28.326 1.762 665 19.813 28.992 Australia 2.240 3.355 14 28 2.255 3.383 Japan 30 44 33 128 63 173 Canada 464 90 210 28 674 118 Norway 20 30 0 50 TOTAL in T 20.786 31.836 2.019 880 22.805 32.716 VALUE in USD 29.888.057 43.263.407 1.061.677 654.588 30.949.734 43.917.995

No or very limited impact on trade flow to RU for these countries, 32.000 T v. EU 2,2 million T

AlternaRve  markets  The  «  main  beneficiaries»    principles:    

–  Northern  Hemisphere  •  Turkey  :  du&es  and  TBT  (  current  EU  export  12.000  T  )  •  Egypt  :  TBT  (  current  EU  export  60.000  T  )  •  Israel  :SPS  and  quotas  ((  current  EU  export  25.000  T  )  •  Morrocco  :  wait  and  see  new  FTA  (  (  current  EU  export  30.000  T  )  •  China  :  SPS  (  current  EU  export  16.000  T)  •  Serbia  :  (  current  EU  export  120.000  T)  

Fruit and vegetable exports from selected markets to Russia in T Fruit Fruit Vegetables Vegetables Total F&V Total F&V

Exporter 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 Turkey 617.253 676.652 454.566 412.496 1.071.819 1.089.147 China 351.937 312.526 302.220 333.637 654.158 646.163 Egypt 143.230 253.780 28.616 78.064 171.846 331.845 Israel 57.748 66.240 141.648 193.275 199.396 259.516 Morocco 263.332 60.355 323.687 0 TOTAL in T 1.433.500 1.309.199 987.405 1.017.472 2.420.905 2.326.671 VALUE in USD 2.249.747 1.941.746 1.520.244 1.622.449 3.769.991 3.564.195

Should export grow to RU from these countries , it might open opportunities for EU

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Thank you for your attention!!!