determinants and dynamics of micronesian emigration

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A Brief Discussion for the Micronesian Voices in Hawaii Conference April 2008 Ben Graham

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Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration. A Brief Discussion for the Micronesian Voices in Hawaii Conference April 2008 Ben Graham. Outline. Foreword Guiding Questions Migration 101: What We Know WWII to Independence Micronesian Emigration Today The Numbers - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

A Brief Discussionfor the

Micronesian Voices in Hawaii ConferenceApril 2008

Ben Graham

Page 2: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Outline1. Foreword2. Guiding Questions3. Migration 101: What We Know4. WWII to Independence5. Micronesian Emigration Today6. The Numbers7. Development Intentions8. Issues and Indicators9. Summary10.Looking Forward

Page 3: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

ForewordFocus on:

international emigration (movement of persons out of one country and into another)

from the FSM and the RMI into the United States

“Micronesia” and “Micronesians” refer to FSM/RMI and their citizens (Palau and other countries in region not specifically discussed)

Page 4: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Guiding QuestionsWhat are common drivers and characteristics of

global migration? What do we know specifically about Micronesian

emigration over time?What are key factors driving Micronesians to

leave their islands today?What are main social, economic, and other issues

we must consider to better understand Micronesian emigration?

Looking forward, what are some important issues to consider?

Page 5: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Migration 101: What We KnowHumans have always migrated as a way to

improve their conditionMicronesians in particular have (over thousands of

years and out of basic necessity) always been highly mobile people

Today, global migration pressures continue to rise, mostly from the developing to the developed world

Every year, millions of emigrants from developing countries gain access into developed countries via formal and legal processes

Every year many enter illegally

Page 6: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Migration 101: What We KnowUS alone sees nearly two million entrants a year,

half a million of which are illegalEarliest economic models for predicting

emigration (at individual level) identified the following as major factors influencing decision: Earnings at homePotential earnings abroadCost of migration

Page 7: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Migration 101: What We KnowOver time, and with more research, more variables

have been added. Common factors on sending country side include:Poverty and hardshipUnemploymentLow wagesHigh fertilityPoor health and education servicesConflict, insecurity, violenceGovernance issuesHuman rights abuse, persecution, discrimination

Page 8: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Migration 101: What We KnowOn the receiving side, major factors include:

Stock of previous emigrants from home country now residing in destination country (the “friends and relatives” effect)

Demand for laborPotential for improved living standardSafety and securityPolitical and religious freedomFamily reunificationReturn to ethnic homelandFreedom from discrimination and persecution

Page 9: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Migration 101: What We KnowIn the middle, some factors can enable or deter the

flow of migration from one country to another, namely:CostDistanceImmigration policies

In short, international migration is influenced by a wide and complex set of factors on the sending side, the receiving side, and in between. Emigration theories and models developed over the years can only partially explain and predict the emigration phenomenon.

Page 10: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Migration 101: What We KnowA simplified framework for studying migration

Push

Fact

ors Poverty/hardship

UnemploymentLow wagesHigh fertilityPoor health, education basic servicesConflict, war, insecurity, violenceGovernance issuesHuman rights abuse, discrimination, persecutionNatural disastersOthers

Barr

iers

/Ena

bler

s Immigration policyDistanceCost

Pull F

acto

rs Prospects of higher wagesDemand for laborPotential for improved living standardSafety and securityPolitical/religious freedomFamily reunification (friends and relatives)Ethnic homelandFreedom from discriminationOthers

Page 11: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Migration 101: What We KnowA few other important characteristics of emigration: 

Contrary to popular belief, emigration from poor countries typically increases as economic development in these countries takes place

There has been observed a hump-shaped curve reflecting the relationship between economic development and emigration

Migration (in general) can have profound effects on development, human capital accumulation, poverty, and many other issues in both sending and receiving countries

Internal migration (mostly in terms of urban migration) and migration between developing countries are also growing

Page 12: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

WWII to Independence1950s and 1960s: Movement Strategically

DeniedPost WWII years characterized by relatively

limited movement of people into and out of Micronesia

US administration of TTPI emphasized control and security

US policy of strategic denial in forceHowever late 1960s saw entry of regularly

scheduled airline services (Continental Micronesia) and Peace Corps

Page 13: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

WWII to Independence1970s and 1980s: Emigration for Education

BeginsSchools built in the 1950s and 1960s began

graduating students in 1960s and 1970s Emigration for education began in the 1970s Most emigration out of Micronesia throughout

the 1970s and 1980s was for education

Page 14: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Micronesian Emigration TodayThe 1986 commencement of the Compacts the defining

moment in modern Micronesian emigration Whereas education the initial driver, after 1986 we see

a broadening of factors Micronesians increasingly citing economic opportunity

and employment as the key driversWhile 15.6 percent of post-Compact migrants in Hawaii

in 1997 cited employment as their primary reason in 2003 this increased to 18.2 percent

Other drivers gaining importance: medical and subsistence

Arkansas Marshallese cite employment as #1

Page 15: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Micronesian Emigration TodayReason for Migrating (post-Compact migrants), Hawaii: 1997 and 2003

Source: Censuses of Micronesians in Hawaii.

Page 16: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

The NumbersEmigration has grown rapidly especially since

beginning of the CompactsBut not unpredicted:

1963 Solomon report “in the long run ... certain inflexible economic limitations of the area and the increasing population pressure must eventually compel substantial emigration of Micronesians.”

1986 Fran Hezel “There is every reason to believe that the trickle of emigrants will increase considerably in the near future… Unless the island nations of Micronesia are somehow able to turn around their economies and create hundreds of new jobs without the assistance of higher levels of US aid, there is a good chance that more young people will elect to leave home and pursue jobs, wherever they are to be found.”

Page 17: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

The NumbersNeither FSM nor RMI have systems to capture

emigration data Recently discovered US Department of Transportation

database captures all movements of airline passengers Analyze air passenger movements into and out of

Micronesian and US airports (embarkations and disembarkations) from the early 1990s to today 

The following summarizes net embarkations (departures over arrivals) of air passengers over the 1991 to 2006 period

The data show very clearly: over 16 year period thousands more have departed than have arrived

Page 18: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

The NumbersFSM saw over 23,000 net embarkations while

RMI saw over 15,000Chuuk 12,423 Pohnpei 8,490 Kosrae 1,187Yap 991

While absolute numbers of FSM embarkations higher, RMI higher in percentage terms

Page 19: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Year FSM Kosrae Pohnpei Chuuk Yap RMI Majuro Kwajalein

2006 2,229 88 680 1,553 -92 1,070 884 186

2005 1,511 218 496 815 -18 1,023 1,040 -17

2004 2,712 131 919 1,467 195 553 542 11

2003 2,699 136 485 1,890 188 781 419 362

2002 1,068 158 632 203 75 913 894 19

2001 1,277 83 566 652 -24 2,133 1,517 616

2000 1,114 171 1,061 95 -213 1,916 1,289 627

1999 -255 -13 113 -400 45 457 660 -203

1998 2,032 53 911 663 405 755 833 -78

1997 1,155 -65 422 689 109 1,415 1,179 236

1996 1,558 77 374 1,062 45 640 586 54

1995 1,890 95 818 983 -6 1,753 509 1,244

1994 707 -109 -40 858 -2 546 573 -27

1993 728 171 182 444 -69 930 254 676

1992 1,093 -61 213 1,070 -129 706 330 376

1991 1,573 54 658 379 482 -357 237 -594

1991-2006 total 23,091 1,187 8,490 12,423 991 15,234 11,746 3,488

1991-2006 avg 1,443 74 531 776 62 952 734 218

Net Embarkations (by air) FSM and RMI: 1991 to 2006

Source: US Department of Transportation TranStats DatabaseNote: data only for passenger movements between FSM/RMI and US, FY for FSM and CY for RMI

Page 20: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Net Embarkations (by air) FSM and RMI: 1991 to 2006

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

FSM RMI

Source: US Department of Transportation TranStats DatabaseNote: data only for passenger movements between FSM/RMI and US, FY for FSM and CY for RMI

Page 21: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

The NumbersFor FSM, 1998, 2003, 2004, and 2006 banner

years, with more than 2,000 total net embarkations

For RMI, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2001, 2005 and 2006 over 1,000 net embarkations 

Next graph shows three year trailing averages for net embarkations for the 1993 to 2006 period

For FSM, since year 2000, average has been on an upswing (except for the slight dip in 2006)

For RMI, average was high in the early 2000s but has slowly leveled off

Page 22: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Net Embarkations (by air) FSM and RMI, 3-Year Trailing Average: 1993 to 2006

1,1311,195 1,208

1,7741,853

2,044

2,288

2,151

716

915

1,057

1,259

1,081

868 857 882

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

FSM RMI

Source: US Department of Transportation TranStats DatabaseNote: data only for passenger movements between FSM/RMI and US, FY for FSM and CY for RMI

Page 23: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Development IntentionsGenerally speaking, development goals, intentions,

and aspirations fairly clear:Adopted similar strategies for development,

prioritization on health and education sectors Amended Compacts of Free Association prioritize

resource allocations to health, education and supporting infrastructure

Pledged to promote sustainable growth by supporting and facilitating private sector development, efficient and effective basic public services, protecting and managing natural resources

Page 24: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Development IntentionsBoth countries have held national economic and

social summitsBoth countries have formulated economic

development plans Both have signed onto multiple international

treaties that commit them to achieving specific development goals and targets (MDGs)

But neither the FSM nor the RMI have very clear definitions of poverty and hardship and neither has articulated poverty alleviation or social protection strategy

Page 25: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Issues and IndicatorsMedian Age: 1999-2000

Source: Secretariat of the Pacific Community PRISM website, census reports

Page 26: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Issues and Indicators

Source: Secretariat of the Pacific Community PRISM website, census reports

Population Pyramids for RMI, FSM: 1999-2000

Page 27: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Issues and IndicatorsAverage Household Size: 1999-2000

Source: census reports

Page 28: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Issues and IndicatorsBoth countries have rapidly growing working age

populations (2006): FSM 60,500 and RMI 28,900

In the labor force: FSM 35,400 and RMI 14,800 (historically low

LFPRs)Formally employed:

FSM 16,463 and RMI 9,810 (registered in the Social Security databases)

In some areas, formal employment has contracted over time

Page 29: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Issues and IndicatorsEstimates for those in labor force but not

registered as being formally employed:FSM 18,978 and RMI 4,950 persons

These nearly 24,000 people are either:Formally employed but not registered Informally or self-employed Not employed

Page 30: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Issues and Indicators

Total Population = 100

Working Age Population = 56

Labor Force = 31

16

Page 31: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Issues and IndicatorsEstimated Labor Force and Formally Employed: 1997 to 2006

Source: FSM and RMI Economic Reviews FY2006, author estimates

Page 32: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Issues and IndicatorsNational Unemployment Rate: 1999-2000

Source: census reports

Page 33: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Issues and IndicatorsAverage Annual Real Wages, Formally Employed: 1995 to 2006

Source: FSM Economic Review FY2006

Page 34: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Issues and IndicatorsAs with real wages, over the long run real

GDP per capita in FSM and RMI has fallen FSM real GDP per capita (1998 $) fell from

$2,107 in 1995 to $1,888 in FY2006 In RMI the decline (in 2000 $) from $2,693 to

$2,454

Page 35: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Issues and IndicatorsPercent of Population Living Below Basic Needs Poverty Line: 1999-2000

Source: ADB Hardship in the Pacific series

Page 36: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Issues and IndicatorsParticipatory Poverty Assessments conducted in

2002 (for RMI) and 2004 (for FSM) by ADBConclusion: that while extreme poverty does not

currently exist, many feel that hardship being experienced by many families in both urban and rural areas

Some families find it increasingly difficult to earn cash needed to meet living expenses 

In 2006 RMI Community Survey, 27 percent of households indicated overall quality of life has gotten worse or much worse in recent years

Page 37: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Issues and IndicatorsPublic Expenditure on Education (% of GDP): 2003

Source: IMF

Page 38: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Issues and IndicatorsPublic Expenditure on Health (% of GDP): 2003

Source: IMF

Page 39: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Issues and IndicatorsAnnual Average Per Capita Spending for Education/Health ($): 2005

Source: World Bank

Page 40: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Issues and IndicatorsWorld Health Organization Global Rankings on Overall Performance of Health Systems (191 countries): 2000

Source: WHO

Page 41: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Issues and IndicatorsLife Expectancy, Male and Female (from latest censuses)

Source: Secretariat of the Pacific Community, PRISM website

Page 42: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Issues and IndicatorsRetention Rates, Grades 1,8,9,12

Source: World Bank and Hezel, F. (2002). Taking Responsibility for our Schools. PREL.

Page 43: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Issues and Indicators

FIJI TO

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A

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MIC

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Pol

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tabi

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and

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213 Countries

Political Stability - 2005HIGH

LOW

(Chosen comparator also shown for selected countries)

Note: Blue dots represent estimates for the 2005 governance indicators. The thin vertical lines represent standard errors around these estimates for each country in world-wide sample. Black dot represents the chosen year comparator (if any). To add or delete countries f rom the chart, click on the "Country Selection" tab below.

Source: "Governance Matters V: Governance Indicators for 1996-2005 " by Daniel Kaufmann, Aart Kraay and Massimo Mastruzzi. Disclaimer: The governance indicators presented here ref lect the statistical compilation of responses on the quality of governance given by a large number of enterprise, citizen and expert survey respondents in industrial and developing countries, as reported by a number of survey institutes, think tanks, non-governmental organizations, and international organizations. The aggregate indicators in no way ref lect the of f icial position of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. As discussed in detail in the accompanying papers, countries' relative positions on these indicators are subject to margins of error that are clearly indicated. Consequently, precise country rankings should not be inferred f rom this data.

Page 44: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Issues and IndicatorsTO

NG

A

FIJI M

AR

SHAL

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LAN

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MIC

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2

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mal

ized

Con

trol

of C

orru

ptio

n In

dex

204 Countries

Control of Corruption - 2005HIGH

LOW

Note: Blue dots represent estimates for the 2005 governance indicators. The thin vertical lines represent standard errors around these estimates for each country in world-wide sample. Black dot represents the chosen year comparator (if any). To add or delete countries f rom the chart, click on the "Country Selection" tab below.

(Chosen comparator also shown for selected countries)

Source: "Governance Matters V: Governance Indicators for 1996-2005 " by Daniel Kaufmann, Aart Kraay and Massimo Mastruzzi. Disclaimer: The governance indicators presented here reflect the statistical compilation of responses on the quality of governance given by a large number of enterprise, citizen and expert survey respondents in industrial and developing countries, as reported by a number of survey institutes, think tanks, non-governmental organizations, and international organizations. The aggregate indicators in no way ref lect the of f icial position of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent. As discussed in detail in the accompanying papers, countries' relative positions on these indicators are subject to margins of error that are clearly indicated. Consequently, precise country rankings should not be inferred f rom this data.

Page 45: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Issues and IndicatorsIs RMI Government (2006) Responsive to Community Needs?

Source: 2006 RMI Community Survey

Page 46: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

SummaryYoung population structures = continued high growth

in working ages, labor forceMicronesia will have excess labor supply for long time,

but employment opportunities at home growing slowlyUnemployment and inactivity high, especially among

youthReal incomes have fallen since 1990s, many

households below basic needs linesFSM and RMI spend far more on health/education but

much room for improvementIn governance, both countries can make improvements

Page 47: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Looking ForwardNo reason to believe that magnitude of emigration will

dramatically change any time soon - many push, pull, enabling factors at play

Push

Fact

ors Poverty/hardship

UnemploymentLow wagesHigh fertilityPoor health, education basic servicesConflict, war, insecurity, violenceGovernance issuesHuman rights abuse, discrimination, persecutionNatural disastersOthers

Barr

iers

/Ena

bler

s Immigration policyDistanceCost

Pull F

acto

rs Prospects of higher wagesDemand for laborPotential for improved living standardSafety and securityPolitical/religious freedomFamily reunification (friends and relatives)Ethnic homelandFreedom from discriminationOthers

Page 48: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Looking ForwardPUSH: hardship, unemployment, low wages, limited education and health services, general lack of economic security, boredom – all will continue

to push MicronesiansPULL: plentiful jobs, better wages, education opportunities, health services, growing pool of friends and relatives, prospects of improved living

standards, economic security, citizenship, more US and other employers directly hiring from Micronesia (?) – all will continue to pull MicronesiansENABLERS: open door access under Compact, friends and relatives covering emigration costs, short distances to some destinations (Guam,

Honolulu)

Page 49: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Looking ForwardSome key questions and issues to also consider:

Is the open access under the Compact permanent? What about companies now directly recruiting Micronesians from home (covering costs, etc.)?What about climate change and sea level rise?What about seasonal work schemes (e.g., Guam, Taiwan, etc.)?What about growth in tourism?What about remittances (financial, governance, etc.)?Other issues?

Page 50: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Looking ForwardBoth countries have promised to improve human

development, economies, and quality of lifeSome indicators confirm this is happening but

most indicators suggest major improvements can be made, especially in health and education performance and outcomes

But improving health and education alone will not be enough

Economic policy commitments should translate into real economic and employment growth

Page 51: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Looking ForwardMost pubic money spent on education and health,

so should highest priority be to ensure all citizens are able to complete high quality education? Shouldn’t quality of health care (preventative, diagnosis) dramatically improve?

Improving human development, social and economic outcomes is the most effective way to ensure all Micronesians (wherever they chose to live) are able to not only survive but truly succeed in their environments

Page 52: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Looking ForwardFSM 3rd Economic Summit (2004): To achieve moderate growth in incomes and to avoid rising out-

migration rates… need to maintain fiscal discipline… support essential services… implement a moderate program of reforms to improve the environment for domestic and foreign investment… reform program would be required…

All of these principles (fiscal discipline, reform, etc.) should be pursued, however while development and rising incomes will improve the lives of Micronesians, this may not necessarily stem the heavy tide of emigration we have now witnessed for over two decades

Page 53: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration
Page 54: Determinants and Dynamics of Micronesian Emigration

Groceries will cost: 40.93% less

Groceries will cost: 20.74% less

Groceries will cost: 39.14% less

Groceries will cost: 36.02% less

Housing will cost: 68.10% less

Housing will cost: 35.48% less

Housing will cost: 49.20% less

Housing will cost: 58.08% less

Utilities will cost: 11.36% less Utilities will cost: 17.84% less Utilities will cost: 28.07% less Utilities will cost: 20.45% lessTransportation

will cost: 20.31% lessTransportation

will cost: 10.48% lessTransportation

will cost: 10.74% lessTransportation

will cost: 12.87% lessHealthcare will

cost: 14.65% lessHealthcare will

cost: 1.74% moreHealthcare will

cost: 2.53% moreHealthcare will

cost: 8.49% less

Salary in Honolulu HI: $14,500 ($7.25/hour @ 2,000 annual hours)Comparable salary in

Phoenix AZ:$9,085.91

If you move from Honolulu HI to Phoenix AZ...

Comparable salary in Eugene OR:

$9,668.15

If you move from Honolulu HI to Eugene OR...

Comparable salary in Sacramento CA:

$10,951.24

If you move from Honolulu HI to Sacramento CA...

Comparable salary in Fayetteville AR:

$8,108.66

If you move from Honolulu HI to Fayetteville AR...

Source: CNN Money website (www.cnnmoney.com)

Hawaii specific issues…