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  • DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE AIR UNIVERSITY

    AIR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

    Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio

    APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED

    OPTIMIZING THE PRIORITIZATION

    OF NATURAL DISASTER RECOVERY PROJECTS

    THESIS

    Jason M. Aftanas, Captain, USAF

    AFIT/GEM/ENS/07-01

  • The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the United States Government.

  • AFIT/GEM/ENS/07-01

    OPTIMIZING THE PRIORITIZATION OF NATURAL DISATER RECOVERY PROJECTS

    THESIS

    Presented to the Faculty

    Department of Systems and Engineering Management

    Graduate School of Engineering and Management

    Air Force Institute of Technology

    Air University

    Air Education and Training Command

    In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the

    Degree of Master of Science in Engineering and Environmental Management

    Jason M. Aftanas, BS

    Captain, USAF

    March 2007

    APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED.

  • AFIT/GEM/ENS/07-01

    OPTIMIZING THE PRIORITIZATION OF NATURAL DISATER RECOVERY PROJECTS

    Jason M. Aftanas, BS Captain, USAF

    Approved: ____________________________________ Shane A. Knighton (Chairman) date ____________________________________ Sonia E. Leach date ____________________________________ Kent C. Halverson date

  • iv

    AFIT/GEM/ENS/07-01

    Abstract

    Prioritizing reconstruction projects to recover a base from a natural disaster is a complicated and

    arduous process that involves all levels of leadership. The project prioritization phase of base recovery has

    a direct affect on the allocation of funding, the utilization of human resources, the obligation of projects,

    and the overall speed an efficiency of the recovery process. The focus of this research is the development

    of an objective and repeatable process for optimizing the project prioritization phase of the recovery effort.

    This work will focus on promoting objectivity in the project prioritizing process, improving the

    communication of the overall base recovery requirement, increasing efficiency in utilizing human and

    monetary resources, and the creation of a usable and repeatable decision-making tool based on Value

    Focused Thinking and integer programming methods.

  • v

    AFIT/GEM/ENS/07-01

    To My Wife and Two Sons

  • vi

    Acknowledgments

    I would like to express my sincere appreciation to my faculty advisor, Major

    Shane A. Knighton, for his guidance and support throughout the course of this thesis

    effort. The insight and experience was certainly appreciated. I would, also, like to thank

    my sponsor, Col Mark D. Wright, from the Air Force Special Operations Command for

    the support he and his staff have provided to me in this endeavor.

    I am also indebted to the many civil engineer professionals who spent their

    valuable time explaining the processes and procedures for prioritizing natural disaster

    recovery projects. Special thanks go to Mr. Keith Cutshaw and Mr. James Cuilla, who

    served as my liaison and were always available to answer my questions.

    Jason M. Aftanas

  • vii

    Table of Contents

    Page Abstract ................................................................................................................................................ iv Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................v Dedication ............................................................................................................................................ vi Table of Contents ................................................................................................................................ vii List of Figures ..................................................................................................................................... viii List of Tables ........................................................................................................................................ ix I. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................1 1.1 Background..................................................................................................................................1 1.2 Problem Statement.......................................................................................................................5 1.3 Research Objectives ....................................................................................................................5 1.4 Research Focus............................................................................................................................6 1.5 Research Questions .....................................................................................................................7 1.6 Research Approach......................................................................................................................7 1.7 Assumptions and Limitations ......................................................................................................8 1.8 Preview of Chapters...................................................................................................................10 II. Literature Review ...........................................................................................................................11 2.1 Crisis Management ...................................................................................................................11 2.2 Crisis Management Case Studies..............................................................................................18 2.3 Decision Analysis .....................................................................................................................22 2.4 Analytical Hierarchy Process ...................................................................................................26 2.5 Analytical Network Process .....................................................................................................29 2.6 Fuzzy Set Approach to Project Selection .................................................................................31 2.7 Need-Based Project Prioritization ............................................................................................33 2.8 Goal Programming ...................................................................................................................36 2.9 Decision Support Model...........................................................................................................37 2.10 USARMY and USAF Project Prioritization Mechanisms......................................................40 2.11 Prioritization of Schedule Dependencies in Hurricane Recovery...........................................45 2.12 Disaster Prediction Models ....................................................................................................47 2.13 Integer Programming (Knapsack)...........................................................................................48 2.14 Why VFT? .............................................................................................................................50 III. Methodology ..................................................................................................................................51 3.1 Overview...................................................................................................................................51 3.2 Problem Identification ...............................................................................................................53 3.3 Constructing the Value Hierarchy .............................................................................................53 3.4 Developing Evaluation Measures ..............................................................................................64 3.5 Weighting the Value Hierarchy .................................................................................................66 3.6 Creating the Value Functions ....................................................................................................69 3.7 Alternative Generation ..............................................................................................................78 3.8 Alternative Scoring....................................................................................................................78

  • viii

    IV. Results and Analysis ..............................................

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