Demographic Trends in the Context of the

Global Thematic Consultation on Population

Dynamics

Presentation at the Member State Briefing on “Global Thematic Consultation on Population

Dynamics in the Context of the Post-2015 UN Development Agenda”

Tuesday 22 January

Conference Room 2, North Lawn Building

John Wilmoth

Director, Population Division, UN-DESA

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The Post-2015 Development Agenda

The MDGs have served as a shared framework for global action since 2000.

The UN is now working closely with

different international stakeholders to

ensure a sustainable development path beyond 2015.

The SG has taken several initiatives:

- High-Level Panel of Eminent

Persons- Special Advisor on Post-2015

- UN System wide Task Team

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Realizing the Future We Want for All

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Population Challenges

Change in the Absolute Size of the PopulationFertility dynamics Mortality dynamics

Change in the Relative Size of Particular CohortsYouth Ageing

Change in the Spatial Distribution of the PopulationInternational and Internal MigrationConcentration (urbanization)

The UN System Wide Task Team identified a number of demographic trends that should be taken into account when developing the post-2015

development agenda:

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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

Total Population by Variant, 1950-2050B

illio

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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Constant fertility

High fertility

Medium fertility

Instant replacement fertility

Low fertility

10.910.6

9.1

8.1

9.3

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nAnnual Population Growth Rate, 1990-2010

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

Disclaimer: This thematic map is for data illustration purposes only. The boundaries, names shown and designations used on this map donot imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

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nAnnual Population Growth Rate, 2010-2050 (medium variant)

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

Disclaimer: This thematic map is for data illustration purposes only. The boundaries, names shown and designations used on this map

do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

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n Of the 6.9 billion people in the world in 2010

…… 214 million or 3.1 per cent were 214 million or 3.1 per cent were international migrantsinternational migrants

International Migration

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Differential impact of international migration

United Nations United Nations

Population Division/DESAPopulation Division/DESA

Total net change

Immigration-emigrationBirths-deaths

EuropeSlowing decline

AfricaReducing growth,but little impact

North AmericaAdding to growth

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nRelative Cohort Size

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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

Total Population by Age Groups, 1950-2050M

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0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050Ages 0-14

Ages 15-64

Ages 65+

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nChanges in Relative Cohort Size Creates a Window of Opportunity

(“Demographic Bonus”)

Dependency Ratio = Young + Old

Working Ages

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

High Income Countries

Middle and Low IncomeCountries

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nAdolescents

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nMDG Years Have Seen Large Increases in Young People in Middle

and Low-Income Countries. Not so for 2015-2050M

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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Ages 10-14

Ages 15-19

Ages 20-24

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nSimilarly, in High-Income Countries (taken collectively), the size of

Youth Cohorts has been falling. Now Will Be More LevelM

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Ages 10-14

Ages 15-19

Ages 20-24

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nPopulation Ageing

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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

World: Total Fertility, 1950-2100C

hild

ren

per

wom

an

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

3.25

3.50

3.75

4.00

4.25

4.50

4.75

5.00

5.25

1950-1955

1955-1960

1960-1965

1965-1970

1970-1975

1975-1980

1980-1985

1985-1990

1990-1995

1995-2000

2000-2005

2005-2010

2010-2015

2015-2020

2020-2025

2025-2030

2030-2035

2035-2040

2040-2045

2045-2050

Constant fertility

High fertility

Medium fertility

Instant replacement fertility

Low fertility

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nTrend in Highest Achieved Life Expectancy at Birth on Record

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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

Female Life Expectancy at Birth, 1950-2050Y

ears

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

1950-1955

1955-1960

1960-1965

1965-1970

1970-1975

1975-1980

1980-1985

1985-1990

1990-1995

1995-2000

2000-2005

2005-2010

2010-2015

2015-2020

2020-2025

2025-2030

2030-2035

2035-2040

2040-2045

2045-2050

AfricaAsiaEuropeLatin America and the CaribbeanNorthern AmericaOceania

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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York

Population Age 0-19 and 50+ Years

Age 0-19 Age 50+

50+ population will increase from 1.4 to 3.1 billion

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.83.03.23.4

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

OceaniaNorthern AmericaLatin America and the CaribbeanEuropeAsiaAfrica

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.83.03.23.4

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

OceaniaNorthern AmericaLatin America and the CaribbeanEuropeAsiaAfrica

Bill

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nThe Challenge of Rapid Urbanization

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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012): World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York

Future World Population Growth Will Be Mainly in

Urban AreasB

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0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Urban

Rural

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Almost All Growth Will Take Place in Middle and Low Income CountriesM

illio

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-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1950-1955

1955-1960

1960-1965

1965-1970

1970-1975

1975-1980

1980-1985

1985-1990

1990-1995

1995-2000

2000-2005

2005-2010

2010-2015

2015-2020

2020-2025

2025-2030

2030-2035

2035-2040

2040-2045

2045-2050

Urban, Middle & Low IncomeCountriesUrban, High Income Countries

Rural, All Countries

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-600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000

1990-2010

2010-2050

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012): World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York

Urban and Rural Population Change: 1990-2010, 2010-2050

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

Oceania

Europe

N. America

L. America &Caribbean

Asia

Africa

1990-2010

2010-2050

Population Changes (Millions)

Urban Population Rural Population

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Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012): World Urbanization Prospects, the 2011 Revision. New York

World: Mega-Cities with 10+ Million Inhabitants

Number Population (millions)

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nConclusions

• Population dynamics – including changes in population growth rates, age structures, and distributions of people are closely linked to development challenges

• Significant trends include high (and low) population growth, international migration, relative cohort effects (youth bulges in some places, rapid ageing), & urbanization.

• Population consultation now underway to understand the importance of these (and other) significant demographic trends within the post-2015 development agenda.

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Thank you !

http://www.worldwewant2015.org/population