Demographic development in Estonia: main trends and outlook for the future

Luule Sakkeus Allan Puur Leen RahnuEstonian Institute for Population Studies, Tallinn University

University of Latvia conferenceSection: Population Development and Demographic Policy Challenges

Riga, Latvia, 11-12 February, 2014

Outline of the presentation

Different processes Fertility, mortality, ageing

Population change

Different analytical perspectives Trends since 1960, outook until 2050

Comparison with major regions of Europe

Period and cohort view

Native and foreign-origin population

Please see population chapter in Estonian HD report 2012/2013

(http://www.kogu.ee/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/EIA2013_eng.pdf).

1. Fertility and family

Total fertility rateEstonia and major regions of Europe 1960-2011

Replacement level

Total fertility rateEstonia and EU-10 counrtries 1990-2011

Mean age at first birthEstonia and major regions of Europe 1960-2011

Shift from one group to another

The impact of tempo-distortionon observed period fertility rates

Postponement of childbearing reduces observed period fertilityAppropriate estimation methods were developed in the late 1990s

John Bongaarts & GriffiihFeeney (1998). On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility. Population and Development Review. 24(2): 271–291.

The impact of tempo-distortion on period TFREstonia 1955-2010

Estimates of cohort fertilityEstonia, birth cohorts 1965-1985

Estimates were confirmed by 2011 census

Childbearing intentionsEstonia, birth cohorts 1955-1984

Childbearing intentionsEU25 countries, Eurobarometer 2006

Educational and ethnic differences in cohort fertility

Replacement level

Proportion on non-marital birthsEstonia and major regions of Europe 1960-2011

Fertility: some conclusions Estonia has featured below replacement fertility starting from cohorts born at the beginning of the 20th century; among native population, only cohorts born in the late 1950s and early 1960s have reached replacement level

Among foreign-origin population fertility has been ca 15% lower ever since cohorts born in the 1930s

Fertility has declined since the 1980s but the extent of decline differs significantly between the period and cohort perspective

Cohorts born in the mid-1970s will have completed fertility around 1,85 (ethnic Estonians slightly higher); period fertility measures are pushed downwards by fertility postponement that started in the early 1990s and is expected to continue until the 2020s

Education is negatively associated to completed fertility (highly educated as target group for family policies?)

2. Mortality

Life expectancy at birth: womenEstonia and major regions of Europe 1960-2011

Shift from one group to another

7 years

2-3 years

2011 female life expectancy 81,1 (Estonians 81,8)

Life expectancy at birth: menEstonia and major regions of Europe 1960-2011

2011 male life expectancy 71,2 (Estonians 72,4)

Disadvantage 3-5 years

12-13 years

7 years

Infant mortality rateEstonia and major regions of Europe 1960-2011

Shift from one group to another

Return shift?

Mortality: some conclusions Estonia experienced a remarkably long period of mortality stagnation (from the 1960s to the

1990s)

Societal changes in the 1990s were accompanied by a dramatic upsurge in mortality rates that culminated in 1994

Since mid-1990s Estonia has experienced a relatively rapid improvement in mortality patterns; the main driving force behind the new trend is rapid reduction in cardiovascular mortality

In recent years, female life expectancy has been among the highest in Eastern Europe. It lags 2-3 years behind the average of Northern, Western and Southern Europe

Although rapid improvements are observed also for men, the disadvantage in life expectancy relative to Northern, Western and Southern Europe amounts to about 7 years

In infant mortality, the disadvatage has almost disappeared

3. Ageing and population change

Proportion of 65+ populationEstonia and major regions of Europe 1960-2011

Shift from one group to another

Accelerated ageing

Population changeEstonia and major regions of Europe 1960-2011

1960-1989: rapid growth+ 364 thousands = + 30%

1990-2011: rapid decline - 276 thousands = -17,6%

2000-11: -78 thousands -5.7%

Population change: natural increaseEstonia and major regions of Europe 1960-2011

1960-1989: + 168 thousands = + 14%

1990-2011: -80 thousands = - 5,1%

2000-11: -34 thousands = - 2.5%

Population change: net migrationEstonia and major regions of Europe 1960-2011

1960-1989: + 196 thousands = + 16%

1990-2011: -196 thousands = - 12,4%

2000-11: -44 thousands = - 3,2%

Net migration rate 1960-2011: Estonia and major regions of Europe

High immigration

Return migration

Population changeEstonians and other groups 1960-2011

1960-1989Estonians +7.7% (NI +4.1%, NM 3.6%)Others +95.0% (NI 42.4%, NM 52.6%)

1990-2011Estonians -6.4% (NI -3.7%, NM -2.7%)Others -35.6% (NI -7.3%, NM -28.8%)

2000-2011Estonians -3.0% (NI -1.2%, NM -1.8%)Others -11.6% (NI -5.2%, NM -6.4%)

Population numberEstonians and other groups 1960-2011

Estonians in 1959: 892 thousands

Estonians in 2011: 902 thousands

Estonians in 1989: 963 thousands

Others in 1959: 304 thousands

Others in 1989: 602 thousands Others in 2011:

392 thousands

Population changeEstonia and countries of Europe 2000-2011

Ageing and population change: some conclusions

Following a prolonged period of supressed ageing, the proportion of elderly beging to increase rapidly, driven by combined effect of low fertility, return migration and large migrant cohorts reaching retirement age.

Since WWII population dynamics in Estonia has been driven excessively by migration. Until 1990, at least 4/5 of rapid growth was due to direct and indirect effects of migration, after 1990, the return migration made the most important single contribution to population dynamics.

The role of migration is highlighted by the comparison of native and foreign-origin population. In relative terms, in 2000-2011 the negative natural increase and negative net migration among exceeded foreign-origin population exceeded that among the native population about three times.

4. Outlook for the future

Projected population number in 2050Estonia in UN medium projections 1994-2010

Release of projection (updated every 2 years)

thousands

Too pessimistic (reflects return migration and very low fertility of the 1990s)

Maybe too optimistic (base population overstated, very limited net migration, strong recovery of fertility)

Projected population number in 2050Estonia and European countries, UN medium 2010

Estonia (TFR2050=1,96 or 1,64)

Lithuania

Latvia

population decrease -8% medium -14% constant fertility

Projected proportion of 65+ in 2050Estonia and European countries, UN medium 2010

Estonia 2010: 17.4%2050: 24.7% or 25.4%

Latvia

Lithuania

Old-age dependency ratio 1950-2050Estonia and regions of Europe, UN medium 2010

Adaptation: postponement of retirement education and retraining, productivity better health not too low fertility not too much emigration in long run

70+/20-69

70+/25-69

Outlook for the future: some conclusions Several trends for next 30-40 years can be predicted with reasonable accuracy

As smaller cohorts born after 1990 will predominate reproductive age groups, the balance between deaths and births will inevitably become more negative. It is important to employ measures to support family formation and childbearing in these generations so that the gap between completed fertility and replacement level would be smaller

Population ageing will continue but with combined efforts of sustaining employment of older persons, retraining, improvements in health behaviour etc. it should be possible to cope with the challenges arising from ageing

Migration processes have become dynamics and more difficult to predict, introducing considerable uncertainty for the demographic outlook

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!