debt, global competition and america's future, ut texas enterprise speaker: mba professor john...

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Debt, Global Competition and America’s Competitiveness John N. Doggett, JD, MBA, Senior Lecturer Global Management, Entrepreneurship & Sustainable Energy McCombs School of Business @ The University of Texas at Austin [email protected] www.jndoggett.com September 8, 2011

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In the next 15-20 years, China is on track to become the world's largest economy. India will be "neck and neck" with the U.S. in second place. How did this happen? How will this affect our lives? Is it too late to change the course? What can we do about it?

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Debt, Global Competition and America’s Competitiveness

John N. Doggett, JD, MBA, Senior LecturerGlobal Management, Entrepreneurship & Sustainable Energy

McCombs School of Business @ The University of Texas at [email protected] www.jndoggett.com

September 8, 2011

Page 2: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Strategic Inflection Points Are Scary

“A strategic inflection point is a time in the life of a business [or a country] when its fundamentals are about to change. That change can mean an opportunity to rise to new heights. But it may just as likely signal the beginning of the end.”

Andy Grove, Only the Paranoid Survive

Page 3: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

We Have Entered a S.I.P.

Page 4: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

It Won’t Be Easy . . .

Page 5: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

But We Can Beat This Thing

Page 6: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Because Failure Is Not An Option

Page 7: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

This is What I Believe We live in an amazing country. We have overcome challenges that

would have destroyed other countries. We face serious problems and serious

problems equal great opportunities. God has blessed America with more

freedom and potential than any other country in the world.

If we take the revival of America’s competitiveness as seriously as we take college football, we cannot fail.

Page 8: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Where We Are Today?

Page 9: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

PIIGS GET SLAUGHTERED

Page 10: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

On the Brink of Bankruptcy

Page 11: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

TOO BIG TO FAIL OR BAIL!

Page 12: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011
Page 13: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011
Page 14: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Deficits Forever . . . ?

Page 15: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

This Math Doesn’t Add Up

Page 16: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

This is a Serious S.I.P.

Page 17: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

US Deficit Is At Civil War Levels

Page 18: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Don’t Show This to Children

Page 19: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

We Are Stuck in Neutral

Page 20: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Are We Entering A Lost Decade?

Page 21: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Can We Borrow Our Way Out of Debt? On 9/30/00, our debt was $5.674 trillion. Today, it is $14.5 trillion

23% of the World’s GDP

We will add $1.4 trillion in debt in 2011 Congress just agreed to increase the

debt by $2.3 trillion by 2013. Today, net payments = 1.4% of GDP CBO says this could be 3.4% by 2020

From $197 billion today to $778 in 9 years This is as much as we spend on national

defense.

Page 22: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

A Warning From The Future?

The Chinese Professor

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTSQozWP-rM

Page 23: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Just The Facts, Jack (Billion US$) May 2008

China = $506.8 Japan= $575.3 Caribbean Banking

Centers = $104.5 Oil Exporters = $164.2 UK = $271.2 Brazil = $151.4 Russia = $63.7 Luxembourg = $75.2 Hong Kong = $61.4 Taiwan = $38.9

June 2011 China = $1,165.5 Japan = $911.0 UK = $349.5 Oil Exporters = $229.6 Brazil = $207.1 Taiwan = $153.4 Caribbean Banking

Centers = $140.5 Hong Kong = $118.4 Russia = $109.8 Switzerland= $108.2

http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

Page 24: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

So, How Do We Pay Down The Debt? Today, we borrow 40 cents of every

dollar we spend. That is unsustainable. In Washington, all they talk about is

raising taxes and cutting spending. I have a better idea.

We must grow our way out of this crisis.

We must sell “assets” owned by the federal government.

Page 25: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

We Have Assets We Can Sell

Page 26: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Cell Phone Penetration China

15 million users in 1997 703 million users in

2009 875 million users by end

of 2010 1.2 billion+ users by

2014 Added 9.4 million new

users in May

Adding 303,226 new users per day!

India 340,000 users in 1997 525 million users in

2009 827 million users by

end of 2010 1 billion+ users by

2012 Added 19 million new

users each month in the first four months of 2011

Adding 633,333 new users per day!

Page 27: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

We Are Not Rome

Page 28: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Let’s Look at Our Competition

Page 29: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Be Careful What You Wish For We told the world that our way of life

was better than Communism or Socialism.

CNN and Hollywood showed the world an irresistible vision of American Life.

Then the Unthinkable happened. On November 9, 1989, the Berlin Wall Fell On Christmas Day, 1991, the USSR ceased to exist.

We had won the Cold War. And most of the world wanted to live

like US.

Page 30: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Birth of the BRICs In 2001, as the Internet Bubble was

collapsing and the stock market was imploding, Goldman Sachs predicted that four countries would dominate global economic activity in the 21st Century.

Brazil Russia India China

Page 31: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

The Axis of the Future

Page 32: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Was Goldman Sachs Crazy?

6,100% Annual Inflation (1994)

Collapse of the Ruble (1998)

Two Weeks of Foreign Reserves (1991)

The Cultural Revolution (1966-1976)

Page 33: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

National GDP in 2010 (purchasing power parity)

Country GDP Real Growth %1. United States $ 14,660,000,000,000 2.8%

2. China $10,090,000,000,000 10.3%

3. Japan $ 4,310,000,000,000 3.9%

4. India $ 4,060,000,000,000 10.4%

5. Germany $ 2,940,000,000,000 3.5%

6. Russia $ 2,223,000,000,000 4.0%

7. United Kingdom $ 2,173,000,000,000 1.3%

8. Brazil $ 2,172,000,000,000 7.5%

9. France $ 2,145,000,000,000 1.5%

10. Italy $ 1,774,000,000,000 1.3%

11. Mexico $ 1,567,000,000,000 5.5%

12. South Korea $ 1,459,000,000,000 6.1%

13. Spain $ 1,369,000,000,000 - 0.1%

14. Canada $ 1,330,000,000,000 3.1%

CIA World Factbook – September 5, 2011

Page 34: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Elephants Emerging from the Mist Total World Population = 6,928,198,253 BRIC Population = 2,868,060,586 (41.4%)

Total World Land Area = 174,814,000 sq. km. (- oceans)

BRIC Land Area = 38,471,715 (22%)

Total World Gross Domestic Product = $63.17 Trillion (Official Exchange Rate)

Total World Gross Domestic Product = $74.54 Trillion (Purchasing Power Parity) (p.p.p.)

BRIC Gross Domestic Product (p.p.p.) = $ 18.55 Trillion (24.88%)

Source: CIA World Factbook – September 5, 2011

Page 35: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Could China Pass the US? Goldman Sachs said that China could

become the largest economy in the world by 2035 by growing by 5% a year.

What does our world look like when China’s economy is 9x larger it is today?

What opportunities does this represent for your firm?

Page 36: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Could India Close The Gap? Goldman Sachs said that India could

challenge the US for #2 by 2040 by growing by 6% a year.

What does our world look like when the Indian economy is 12x larger than it is today?

What opportunities does this represent for your firm?

Page 37: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

The BRIC Middle Class Is Exploding Goldman Sachs predicts the BRIC Middle

Class could grow from 250 million to 1 billion in this decade

McKinsey says the Chinese middle class will grow from 80 million in 2007 to 700 million by 2020.

Goldman says that the BRIC Middle Class could grow from 250 million in 2005 to 3.5 billion by 2050*

Jim O'Neill, Managing Director & Head of Global Economic Research, Goldman Sachs, 5/06McKinsey & Company, Inc.

Page 38: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

How Far China Has Come In 2006 the G7 (the US, Japan, Germany, France,

Britain, Italy & Canada) held $1,253,900,000,000 in FOREX

By the end of 2007 China’s FOREX reserves had passed $1,500,000,000,000

China spent $65 billion for the Olympics. 5x the cost of the Athens Olympics.

China then invested $200 billion to create the China Investment Corporation CIC will get an additional $200 billion to invest this year

Today, China has over $3,400,000,000,000 in FOREX reserves.

America’s debt, on the other hand, will increase by $1,400,000,000,000+ in 2011.

Page 39: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Chinese Banks and The World

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Page 40: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

The IMF Says . . .

China could pass the United States as the largest economy in the world

by 2016.

Page 41: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Source: The Conference Board Report issued on November 10, 2010 using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)

The Conference Board Says . . .

China Could pass The United States BY 2012!

Page 42: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

WHILE WE WERE SLEEPING, THEY WERE RUNNING

Remember, WE Won the Cold War

Page 43: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Dr. P. Konana, McCombs Business School, University of Texas at Austin

A Swarm of Inflection Points

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Page 44: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

What is Your Image of Brazil?

(c) - Andre Havt from www. woophy.com

Page 45: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

This is a Brazilian Super Tanker

Page 46: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

An Orange Juice Super Tanker

Page 47: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Competing With Innovation

Page 48: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Inside Air Canada’s Embraer 190

Page 49: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Add A Large Dash of Oil . . .

Page 50: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

What is Your Image of India?

www.woophy.com

Page 51: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Bangalore, India

Page 52: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Infosys

Page 53: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

This Is the New India

Page 54: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Indigo Airlines

Page 55: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Tata Motors People’s Car

Page 56: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Tata Motors’ Newest Ride

Page 57: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Tata Motors’ Newest Ride

Page 58: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

WSJ - June 25, 2007, Page A1

California Dreaming?

Page 59: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Welcome to the New China

copyright - John N. Doggett, 2008

Page 60: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

60

Growth at Warp Speed

Page 61: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

China has 6 of the 15 Tallest Buildings

Page 62: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Building Skyscrapers Like Crazy China is building 24 of the 50

skyscrapers to be completed worldwide in the next six years. This will double the number of Chinese

skyscrapers.

McKinsey say that China could build enough new skyscrapers to equal one new Chicago every year until 2030. More than 1,500 new buildings over 30 stories

Page 63: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

The People’s Republic of Communist China?

Page 64: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

www.lenbracken.com/images/china31

Shenzhen in 1979

Page 65: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

30,000 people lived here in 1983

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:57440.jpg

Page 66: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

The Chinese Market Is Taking Off Boeing says China

Will Need 5000 New Planes by 2030 at a cost of more than $600 billion. Last year, the estimate

was 4,330 planes for total spend of $480 billion.

Boeing delivered its 800th plane to China in July, 2010

Page 67: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

China Is Boeing’s #1 Export Market

Page 68: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Say Hello to the C919

Page 69: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

China Will Enter This Market in 2016 Commercial Aircraft Corp. of China

(Comac) will roll out the C919 in 2016. The C919 should be at least 15%-18%

more fuel efficient, with a faster cruising speed (Mach 0.785) and longer range than the 737 or the A320. It will also be wider than the 737 and A320.

For pilots, the C919 will have basically the same fly-by-wire flight control system as Boeing’s upcoming 787, courtesy of Honeywell.

Page 70: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

We Won the Cold War With the C919, China aims to satisfy

some of its domestic demand and boost exports, initially in Asia.

Comac expects to sell 2,509 C919s over 20 years.

Without the C919, Boeing and Airbus expected to sell 3,450 narrow body planes to China during the same time period.

That’s a decrease of 73%. Ouch.

Page 71: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Progress Comes at a Steep Price

Source: New York Times, 8/25/2007

Page 72: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

The Guardian - June 20, 2007 Peter Parks/AFP

This “Air” Doesn’t Stay in China

Page 73: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

The Chinese People Hate Dirty Air

Page 74: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

The Chinese People Hate Dirty Water

Page 75: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

The Clock is Ticking

Page 76: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

We Are #2!

Page 77: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

US Secretary of Energy Chu “The leaders of China are all saying,

‘This is a very big deal for us. If we continue business as usual, continue to grow our carbon emissions, it would be devastating for the world, devastating for China.’ But they also say, ‘This is our great economic opportunity.’ And for that reason, they’re investing over $100 billion a year in the clean energy economy.”

Page 78: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Becoming a Renewable Energy Giant China is building six massive wind

farms across the country. Each has the generating capacity of 16 large

coal-fired plants

Each of the six projects “totally dwarfs anything else, anywhere else in the world,”

Steve Sawyer, the secretary general of the Global Wind Energy Council, an industry group in Brussels.

Page 79: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Growing @ the Speed of Wind China’s Installed Wind Capacity

2008 = 5th largest in the world 2009 = 3rd largest in the world 2010 = 2nd largest in the world 2011 = largest in the world

Since May 2010 Gansu Province has been installing 40-MW of wind power every day! This is equivalent to one new 300-MW coal plant

a week in just one of seven regions that are developing at least 10,000 MW of wind power.

Page 80: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

China Drawing High-Tech Research Mark Pinto, Chief Technology Officer of

Applied Materials moved to Beijing in January

Applied Materials is building its newest and largest research labs in China

Applied held its annual shareholder’s meeting in Xi’an, China in 2010. Applied’s global headquarters are in Santa Clara,

California

Page 81: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Applied’s New Xi’an R&D Plant

Page 82: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Will This Be China’s Century? When Xie Lina, a 26-year-old Applied

Materials engineer here, was asked recently whether China would play a big role in clean energy in the future, she was surprised by the question.

“Most of the graduate students in China are chasing this area,” she said. “Of course, China will lead everything.”

New York Times, March 17, 2010

Page 83: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

From China with Love Thermal Power Research Institute is

China’s world-leading laboratory on cleaner coal, has just licensed its latest design to Future Fuels in the US. Future Fuels will pay about $100 million to import

from China a 130-foot-high maze of equipment that turns coal into a gas before burning it. This method reduces toxic pollution and makes it easier to capture and sequester gases like carbon dioxide under ground. Future Fuels will ship the equipment to

Pennsylvania and have Chinese engineers teach American workers how to assemble and operate it.

Page 84: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

2007 Shanghai Millionaires Ball

Page 85: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

A Coal Baron Son’s Wedding

Page 86: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Job Fair for 150k College Graduates

Page 87: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

How Long Will They Wait?

Page 88: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

How Long Will She Wait?

Page 89: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

How Long Will They Wait?

Page 90: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

THIS IS THE GREATEST TIME TO BE AN AMERICAN!

Page 91: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Impact of MIT Alumni Entrepreneurs MIT Alumni founded 25,800 currently active

companies in 2009.

The firms employed 3,300,000 people.

These firms generated annual world revenues of $2,000,000,000,000.

If currently active firms founded by MIT graduates were a country in 2009 they would have been the 11th largest economy in the world.

Economic Impact of MIT Alumni Entrepreneurs - Entrepreneurial Impact: The Role of MIT, Roberts and Eesley, MIT & Kauffman Foundation for Entrepreneurship, February, 2009

Page 92: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

“Recruit” The Right Immigrants Immigrants started 25% of U.S. public companies

that were venture-backed.

The market capitalization of publicly traded immigrant-founded venture-backed companies in the U. S. exceeds $500 billion.

40% of U.S. publicly traded venture-backed high-technology manufacturing companies were started by immigrants.

50%+ of the employment generated by U.S. public venture-backed high-tech manufacturers has come from immigrant-founded companies.

Page 93: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

A Great Time To Be a Farmer! The world’s appetite for farm products

will soar. The world will have more than enough

cash to buy what we grow Farm support payments will no longer

be necessary Quotas, tariffs and other market

protections will no longer be necessary We will be able to sell everything that

we can grow and process.

Page 94: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

WE “OWN” CREATIVITY!

Page 95: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

WE CAN APPLEIZE AMERICA The iPhone, which did not exist before

2007, now generates 2/3 of Apple’s revenue. Apple made more profit on the iPhone than all of

its competitors combined!

The iPad generates $1 billion more revenue than the Mac. The iPad is less than 2 years old.

Apple = 20% of All Sales Growth of Publically Traded Retailers in 2011. 1st Quarter 2011 sales went up 80% Y.O.Y.

Page 96: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

WE CAN REINVENT MANUFACTURING The Chevrolet Sonic is Transforming

the face of American Manufacturing The plant is 50% smaller Wielding Robots are clustered together instead o

being spaced along the line The first coat of rust proofing is 1/100 as thick Many employees make $14 an hour instead of

$28 an hour . . . With the UAW’s blessings.

All of this so the Sonic can be manufactured in Detroit instead of Mexico.

Page 97: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Made in Detroit

Page 99: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Additional Slides

If we only had time

Page 100: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Oil Fuels America’s Deficit

Page 101: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Small Hydro Projects Putting many small hydro dams on

rivers to generate 5 to 10 MW of power.

Page 102: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Shale Gas = 50% Supply in 2020

Page 103: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Shale Gas Everywhere You Look

Page 104: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Algae to Oil

Page 105: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

French Tidal Power Plant Online in 1967

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Rance_tidal_power_plant.JPG

Page 106: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

300 in NYC’s East River by 2013

Page 107: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Real Projects; Real Power 1,320 MW Incheon Tidal Power Station

built around islands west of Incheon. Construction will start in 2017.

Page 108: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Ocean Wave Power

Page 109: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Capturing Waves

Page 110: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Sea Dog Pump = 22% Conversion

Page 111: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Cheap, Available Fresh Water What happens to global stability if

every country with access to the sea can get all the fresh water it needs?

What happens to global agriculture and hunger if every country with access to the sea can get all the fresh water it needs?

What happens to global economic growth if every country with access to the sea can get all the fresh water it needs?

Page 112: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Ocean Powered Fresh Water

Page 113: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Ocean Currents

Page 114: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Ocean Thermal Power Potential

Page 115: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Ocean Thermal Power

Page 116: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Apple Made 2X Profit of the “Others”

Page 117: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Oh My

Page 118: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Shale Gas Is Revolutionary Shale Gas increased America’s gas

reserves by 40% in this decade. Shale Gas reserves outside of North

America could increase the world’s gas reserves by 50% to 160%. That is equal to 211 to 690 years’ worth of gas

consumption in the United States at current levels.

Page 119: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Small Reactors to the Rescue?

Page 120: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Baby Nuke Self Contained Design Tennessee Valley Authority, First Energy

Corp. and Oglethorpe Power Corp., on 2/17/10 signed an agreement with McDermott International Inc.'s Babcock & Wilcox subsidiary, committing to get the new reactor approved for commercial use in the U.S.

Made in plants in Indiana, Ohio or Virginia. 125 to 150 MW 1/10 the cost of big nukes = $750 million Built with all of the fuel needed to run it for

60 years. All waste stored in plant for 60 years.

WSJ - 2/18/2010

Page 121: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

240 MW on a Truck

(c) - General Atomics - WSJ - 2/22/2010

Page 122: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Pocket Nuclear Reactor 240 MW reactor that will be built in factors

and shipped to sites on trucks or trains. Helium cooled reactor would use operate at

temperatures as high as 850 degrees Centigrade. This makes it an attractive “combined cycle” energy

source for desalinization of water and other industrial uses.

Fuel source is spent nuclear fuel from large conventional nuclear plants. “spent fuel” contains more than 90% of its original energy Enough nuclear waste to build 3,000 of these reactors

12 year development timelineWSJ - 2/22/2010

Page 123: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Power From the Ocean The European Energy Association

estimates that, globally, the oceans could yield more than 100.000 terawatt hours a year if the technology to harness that power can be perfected.

That is more than five times the electricity the world uses in a year.

Page 124: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Real Products; Not Just Dreams

Page 125: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Tidal Power Growth 45 Wave and Tidal prototypes will be

tested in 2011 and 2012. Only 9 were tested in 2009.

Page 126: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

GOD HAS BLESSED AMERICA

Page 127: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Narrow Body Jets Rule There are over 4,500 737s currently in

service, with 2,016 orders yet to be filled.

The Airbus A320 has almost 3,400 in service

The 737 series is the best selling jet airliner in history.

According to FlightGlobal, there are on average 1,250 737s airborne at any given time, with one departing or landing somewhere every five seconds.

Page 128: Debt, Global Competition and America's Future, UT Texas Enterprise Speaker: MBA Professor John Doggett, Sept. 8, 2011

Narrow Body Jets Rule Global demand for narrow bodies (737

and A320s) over the coming two decades will be 21,160, according to Boeing estimates.

That’s $1.7 trillion worth of aircraft that, at present, Boeing and Airbus would expect to snag more than 90% of the orders.

Embraer of Brazil is #3