debt, global competition and america's future, ut texas enterprise speaker: mba professor john...
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In the next 15-20 years, China is on track to become the world's largest economy. India will be "neck and neck" with the U.S. in second place. How did this happen? How will this affect our lives? Is it too late to change the course? What can we do about it?TRANSCRIPT
Debt, Global Competition and America’s Competitiveness
John N. Doggett, JD, MBA, Senior LecturerGlobal Management, Entrepreneurship & Sustainable Energy
McCombs School of Business @ The University of Texas at [email protected] www.jndoggett.com
September 8, 2011
Strategic Inflection Points Are Scary
“A strategic inflection point is a time in the life of a business [or a country] when its fundamentals are about to change. That change can mean an opportunity to rise to new heights. But it may just as likely signal the beginning of the end.”
Andy Grove, Only the Paranoid Survive
We Have Entered a S.I.P.
It Won’t Be Easy . . .
But We Can Beat This Thing
Because Failure Is Not An Option
This is What I Believe We live in an amazing country. We have overcome challenges that
would have destroyed other countries. We face serious problems and serious
problems equal great opportunities. God has blessed America with more
freedom and potential than any other country in the world.
If we take the revival of America’s competitiveness as seriously as we take college football, we cannot fail.
Where We Are Today?
PIIGS GET SLAUGHTERED
On the Brink of Bankruptcy
TOO BIG TO FAIL OR BAIL!
Deficits Forever . . . ?
This Math Doesn’t Add Up
This is a Serious S.I.P.
US Deficit Is At Civil War Levels
Don’t Show This to Children
We Are Stuck in Neutral
Are We Entering A Lost Decade?
Can We Borrow Our Way Out of Debt? On 9/30/00, our debt was $5.674 trillion. Today, it is $14.5 trillion
23% of the World’s GDP
We will add $1.4 trillion in debt in 2011 Congress just agreed to increase the
debt by $2.3 trillion by 2013. Today, net payments = 1.4% of GDP CBO says this could be 3.4% by 2020
From $197 billion today to $778 in 9 years This is as much as we spend on national
defense.
A Warning From The Future?
The Chinese Professor
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTSQozWP-rM
Just The Facts, Jack (Billion US$) May 2008
China = $506.8 Japan= $575.3 Caribbean Banking
Centers = $104.5 Oil Exporters = $164.2 UK = $271.2 Brazil = $151.4 Russia = $63.7 Luxembourg = $75.2 Hong Kong = $61.4 Taiwan = $38.9
June 2011 China = $1,165.5 Japan = $911.0 UK = $349.5 Oil Exporters = $229.6 Brazil = $207.1 Taiwan = $153.4 Caribbean Banking
Centers = $140.5 Hong Kong = $118.4 Russia = $109.8 Switzerland= $108.2
http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt
So, How Do We Pay Down The Debt? Today, we borrow 40 cents of every
dollar we spend. That is unsustainable. In Washington, all they talk about is
raising taxes and cutting spending. I have a better idea.
We must grow our way out of this crisis.
We must sell “assets” owned by the federal government.
We Have Assets We Can Sell
Cell Phone Penetration China
15 million users in 1997 703 million users in
2009 875 million users by end
of 2010 1.2 billion+ users by
2014 Added 9.4 million new
users in May
Adding 303,226 new users per day!
India 340,000 users in 1997 525 million users in
2009 827 million users by
end of 2010 1 billion+ users by
2012 Added 19 million new
users each month in the first four months of 2011
Adding 633,333 new users per day!
We Are Not Rome
Let’s Look at Our Competition
Be Careful What You Wish For We told the world that our way of life
was better than Communism or Socialism.
CNN and Hollywood showed the world an irresistible vision of American Life.
Then the Unthinkable happened. On November 9, 1989, the Berlin Wall Fell On Christmas Day, 1991, the USSR ceased to exist.
We had won the Cold War. And most of the world wanted to live
like US.
Birth of the BRICs In 2001, as the Internet Bubble was
collapsing and the stock market was imploding, Goldman Sachs predicted that four countries would dominate global economic activity in the 21st Century.
Brazil Russia India China
The Axis of the Future
Was Goldman Sachs Crazy?
6,100% Annual Inflation (1994)
Collapse of the Ruble (1998)
Two Weeks of Foreign Reserves (1991)
The Cultural Revolution (1966-1976)
National GDP in 2010 (purchasing power parity)
Country GDP Real Growth %1. United States $ 14,660,000,000,000 2.8%
2. China $10,090,000,000,000 10.3%
3. Japan $ 4,310,000,000,000 3.9%
4. India $ 4,060,000,000,000 10.4%
5. Germany $ 2,940,000,000,000 3.5%
6. Russia $ 2,223,000,000,000 4.0%
7. United Kingdom $ 2,173,000,000,000 1.3%
8. Brazil $ 2,172,000,000,000 7.5%
9. France $ 2,145,000,000,000 1.5%
10. Italy $ 1,774,000,000,000 1.3%
11. Mexico $ 1,567,000,000,000 5.5%
12. South Korea $ 1,459,000,000,000 6.1%
13. Spain $ 1,369,000,000,000 - 0.1%
14. Canada $ 1,330,000,000,000 3.1%
CIA World Factbook – September 5, 2011
Elephants Emerging from the Mist Total World Population = 6,928,198,253 BRIC Population = 2,868,060,586 (41.4%)
Total World Land Area = 174,814,000 sq. km. (- oceans)
BRIC Land Area = 38,471,715 (22%)
Total World Gross Domestic Product = $63.17 Trillion (Official Exchange Rate)
Total World Gross Domestic Product = $74.54 Trillion (Purchasing Power Parity) (p.p.p.)
BRIC Gross Domestic Product (p.p.p.) = $ 18.55 Trillion (24.88%)
Source: CIA World Factbook – September 5, 2011
Could China Pass the US? Goldman Sachs said that China could
become the largest economy in the world by 2035 by growing by 5% a year.
What does our world look like when China’s economy is 9x larger it is today?
What opportunities does this represent for your firm?
Could India Close The Gap? Goldman Sachs said that India could
challenge the US for #2 by 2040 by growing by 6% a year.
What does our world look like when the Indian economy is 12x larger than it is today?
What opportunities does this represent for your firm?
The BRIC Middle Class Is Exploding Goldman Sachs predicts the BRIC Middle
Class could grow from 250 million to 1 billion in this decade
McKinsey says the Chinese middle class will grow from 80 million in 2007 to 700 million by 2020.
Goldman says that the BRIC Middle Class could grow from 250 million in 2005 to 3.5 billion by 2050*
Jim O'Neill, Managing Director & Head of Global Economic Research, Goldman Sachs, 5/06McKinsey & Company, Inc.
How Far China Has Come In 2006 the G7 (the US, Japan, Germany, France,
Britain, Italy & Canada) held $1,253,900,000,000 in FOREX
By the end of 2007 China’s FOREX reserves had passed $1,500,000,000,000
China spent $65 billion for the Olympics. 5x the cost of the Athens Olympics.
China then invested $200 billion to create the China Investment Corporation CIC will get an additional $200 billion to invest this year
Today, China has over $3,400,000,000,000 in FOREX reserves.
America’s debt, on the other hand, will increase by $1,400,000,000,000+ in 2011.
Chinese Banks and The World
39
The IMF Says . . .
China could pass the United States as the largest economy in the world
by 2016.
Source: The Conference Board Report issued on November 10, 2010 using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
The Conference Board Says . . .
China Could pass The United States BY 2012!
WHILE WE WERE SLEEPING, THEY WERE RUNNING
Remember, WE Won the Cold War
Dr. P. Konana, McCombs Business School, University of Texas at Austin
A Swarm of Inflection Points
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What is Your Image of Brazil?
(c) - Andre Havt from www. woophy.com
This is a Brazilian Super Tanker
An Orange Juice Super Tanker
Competing With Innovation
Inside Air Canada’s Embraer 190
Add A Large Dash of Oil . . .
What is Your Image of India?
www.woophy.com
Bangalore, India
Infosys
This Is the New India
Indigo Airlines
Tata Motors People’s Car
Tata Motors’ Newest Ride
Tata Motors’ Newest Ride
WSJ - June 25, 2007, Page A1
California Dreaming?
Welcome to the New China
copyright - John N. Doggett, 2008
60
Growth at Warp Speed
China has 6 of the 15 Tallest Buildings
Building Skyscrapers Like Crazy China is building 24 of the 50
skyscrapers to be completed worldwide in the next six years. This will double the number of Chinese
skyscrapers.
McKinsey say that China could build enough new skyscrapers to equal one new Chicago every year until 2030. More than 1,500 new buildings over 30 stories
The People’s Republic of Communist China?
www.lenbracken.com/images/china31
Shenzhen in 1979
30,000 people lived here in 1983
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:57440.jpg
The Chinese Market Is Taking Off Boeing says China
Will Need 5000 New Planes by 2030 at a cost of more than $600 billion. Last year, the estimate
was 4,330 planes for total spend of $480 billion.
Boeing delivered its 800th plane to China in July, 2010
China Is Boeing’s #1 Export Market
Say Hello to the C919
China Will Enter This Market in 2016 Commercial Aircraft Corp. of China
(Comac) will roll out the C919 in 2016. The C919 should be at least 15%-18%
more fuel efficient, with a faster cruising speed (Mach 0.785) and longer range than the 737 or the A320. It will also be wider than the 737 and A320.
For pilots, the C919 will have basically the same fly-by-wire flight control system as Boeing’s upcoming 787, courtesy of Honeywell.
We Won the Cold War With the C919, China aims to satisfy
some of its domestic demand and boost exports, initially in Asia.
Comac expects to sell 2,509 C919s over 20 years.
Without the C919, Boeing and Airbus expected to sell 3,450 narrow body planes to China during the same time period.
That’s a decrease of 73%. Ouch.
Progress Comes at a Steep Price
Source: New York Times, 8/25/2007
The Guardian - June 20, 2007 Peter Parks/AFP
This “Air” Doesn’t Stay in China
The Chinese People Hate Dirty Air
The Chinese People Hate Dirty Water
The Clock is Ticking
We Are #2!
US Secretary of Energy Chu “The leaders of China are all saying,
‘This is a very big deal for us. If we continue business as usual, continue to grow our carbon emissions, it would be devastating for the world, devastating for China.’ But they also say, ‘This is our great economic opportunity.’ And for that reason, they’re investing over $100 billion a year in the clean energy economy.”
Becoming a Renewable Energy Giant China is building six massive wind
farms across the country. Each has the generating capacity of 16 large
coal-fired plants
Each of the six projects “totally dwarfs anything else, anywhere else in the world,”
Steve Sawyer, the secretary general of the Global Wind Energy Council, an industry group in Brussels.
Growing @ the Speed of Wind China’s Installed Wind Capacity
2008 = 5th largest in the world 2009 = 3rd largest in the world 2010 = 2nd largest in the world 2011 = largest in the world
Since May 2010 Gansu Province has been installing 40-MW of wind power every day! This is equivalent to one new 300-MW coal plant
a week in just one of seven regions that are developing at least 10,000 MW of wind power.
China Drawing High-Tech Research Mark Pinto, Chief Technology Officer of
Applied Materials moved to Beijing in January
Applied Materials is building its newest and largest research labs in China
Applied held its annual shareholder’s meeting in Xi’an, China in 2010. Applied’s global headquarters are in Santa Clara,
California
Applied’s New Xi’an R&D Plant
Will This Be China’s Century? When Xie Lina, a 26-year-old Applied
Materials engineer here, was asked recently whether China would play a big role in clean energy in the future, she was surprised by the question.
“Most of the graduate students in China are chasing this area,” she said. “Of course, China will lead everything.”
New York Times, March 17, 2010
From China with Love Thermal Power Research Institute is
China’s world-leading laboratory on cleaner coal, has just licensed its latest design to Future Fuels in the US. Future Fuels will pay about $100 million to import
from China a 130-foot-high maze of equipment that turns coal into a gas before burning it. This method reduces toxic pollution and makes it easier to capture and sequester gases like carbon dioxide under ground. Future Fuels will ship the equipment to
Pennsylvania and have Chinese engineers teach American workers how to assemble and operate it.
2007 Shanghai Millionaires Ball
A Coal Baron Son’s Wedding
Job Fair for 150k College Graduates
How Long Will They Wait?
How Long Will She Wait?
How Long Will They Wait?
THIS IS THE GREATEST TIME TO BE AN AMERICAN!
Impact of MIT Alumni Entrepreneurs MIT Alumni founded 25,800 currently active
companies in 2009.
The firms employed 3,300,000 people.
These firms generated annual world revenues of $2,000,000,000,000.
If currently active firms founded by MIT graduates were a country in 2009 they would have been the 11th largest economy in the world.
Economic Impact of MIT Alumni Entrepreneurs - Entrepreneurial Impact: The Role of MIT, Roberts and Eesley, MIT & Kauffman Foundation for Entrepreneurship, February, 2009
“Recruit” The Right Immigrants Immigrants started 25% of U.S. public companies
that were venture-backed.
The market capitalization of publicly traded immigrant-founded venture-backed companies in the U. S. exceeds $500 billion.
40% of U.S. publicly traded venture-backed high-technology manufacturing companies were started by immigrants.
50%+ of the employment generated by U.S. public venture-backed high-tech manufacturers has come from immigrant-founded companies.
A Great Time To Be a Farmer! The world’s appetite for farm products
will soar. The world will have more than enough
cash to buy what we grow Farm support payments will no longer
be necessary Quotas, tariffs and other market
protections will no longer be necessary We will be able to sell everything that
we can grow and process.
WE “OWN” CREATIVITY!
WE CAN APPLEIZE AMERICA The iPhone, which did not exist before
2007, now generates 2/3 of Apple’s revenue. Apple made more profit on the iPhone than all of
its competitors combined!
The iPad generates $1 billion more revenue than the Mac. The iPad is less than 2 years old.
Apple = 20% of All Sales Growth of Publically Traded Retailers in 2011. 1st Quarter 2011 sales went up 80% Y.O.Y.
WE CAN REINVENT MANUFACTURING The Chevrolet Sonic is Transforming
the face of American Manufacturing The plant is 50% smaller Wielding Robots are clustered together instead o
being spaced along the line The first coat of rust proofing is 1/100 as thick Many employees make $14 an hour instead of
$28 an hour . . . With the UAW’s blessings.
All of this so the Sonic can be manufactured in Detroit instead of Mexico.
Made in Detroit
IMPORTED FROM DETROIT
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKL254Y_jtc&feature=player_detailpage
Additional Slides
If we only had time
Oil Fuels America’s Deficit
Small Hydro Projects Putting many small hydro dams on
rivers to generate 5 to 10 MW of power.
Shale Gas = 50% Supply in 2020
Shale Gas Everywhere You Look
Algae to Oil
French Tidal Power Plant Online in 1967
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Rance_tidal_power_plant.JPG
300 in NYC’s East River by 2013
Real Projects; Real Power 1,320 MW Incheon Tidal Power Station
built around islands west of Incheon. Construction will start in 2017.
Ocean Wave Power
Capturing Waves
Sea Dog Pump = 22% Conversion
Cheap, Available Fresh Water What happens to global stability if
every country with access to the sea can get all the fresh water it needs?
What happens to global agriculture and hunger if every country with access to the sea can get all the fresh water it needs?
What happens to global economic growth if every country with access to the sea can get all the fresh water it needs?
Ocean Powered Fresh Water
Ocean Currents
Ocean Thermal Power Potential
Ocean Thermal Power
Apple Made 2X Profit of the “Others”
Oh My
Shale Gas Is Revolutionary Shale Gas increased America’s gas
reserves by 40% in this decade. Shale Gas reserves outside of North
America could increase the world’s gas reserves by 50% to 160%. That is equal to 211 to 690 years’ worth of gas
consumption in the United States at current levels.
Small Reactors to the Rescue?
Baby Nuke Self Contained Design Tennessee Valley Authority, First Energy
Corp. and Oglethorpe Power Corp., on 2/17/10 signed an agreement with McDermott International Inc.'s Babcock & Wilcox subsidiary, committing to get the new reactor approved for commercial use in the U.S.
Made in plants in Indiana, Ohio or Virginia. 125 to 150 MW 1/10 the cost of big nukes = $750 million Built with all of the fuel needed to run it for
60 years. All waste stored in plant for 60 years.
WSJ - 2/18/2010
240 MW on a Truck
(c) - General Atomics - WSJ - 2/22/2010
Pocket Nuclear Reactor 240 MW reactor that will be built in factors
and shipped to sites on trucks or trains. Helium cooled reactor would use operate at
temperatures as high as 850 degrees Centigrade. This makes it an attractive “combined cycle” energy
source for desalinization of water and other industrial uses.
Fuel source is spent nuclear fuel from large conventional nuclear plants. “spent fuel” contains more than 90% of its original energy Enough nuclear waste to build 3,000 of these reactors
12 year development timelineWSJ - 2/22/2010
Power From the Ocean The European Energy Association
estimates that, globally, the oceans could yield more than 100.000 terawatt hours a year if the technology to harness that power can be perfected.
That is more than five times the electricity the world uses in a year.
Real Products; Not Just Dreams
Tidal Power Growth 45 Wave and Tidal prototypes will be
tested in 2011 and 2012. Only 9 were tested in 2009.
GOD HAS BLESSED AMERICA
Narrow Body Jets Rule There are over 4,500 737s currently in
service, with 2,016 orders yet to be filled.
The Airbus A320 has almost 3,400 in service
The 737 series is the best selling jet airliner in history.
According to FlightGlobal, there are on average 1,250 737s airborne at any given time, with one departing or landing somewhere every five seconds.
Narrow Body Jets Rule Global demand for narrow bodies (737
and A320s) over the coming two decades will be 21,160, according to Boeing estimates.
That’s $1.7 trillion worth of aircraft that, at present, Boeing and Airbus would expect to snag more than 90% of the orders.
Embraer of Brazil is #3