david smith smart cities - birmingham

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David's presentation given to the Digital Birmingham Stakeholders Meeting on Thursday 26th January at Fazeley Studios

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  • 1. David Smith Chief executiveGlobal Futures and Foresight Global Futures and Foresight 2012 Integrated city Integrated lives

2. Smart city development

  • Integrated view of city governance.
  • Rationalise complex IT environments.
  • City-wide systems integration.
  • Engage cloud and outsourced services.
  • Outsource and cloud service management.
  • Network of solutions.

3. Agenda

  • Pace of change
  • The journey
  • Integrated approach

4. UK urban population

  • 70m population by 2028, up 9m in 19 years.(ONS)
  • Urban population rising:
    • 50.3m in 1990
    • 53.5m in 2005
    • 59.6 million by 2030(1).
  • Single occupancy households to increase by 20% to 26 million by 2026.(from 2006).

Source (1): UNhttp://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WUP2005/2005WUP_DataTables3.pdf http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1567066/We-must-act-now-to-cut-immigrant-numbers.html http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/11937%20FFF%20Retail%20Futures%20WEB%20new%20version.pdf : Guardian,http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2009/oct/21/uk-population-growth-70-million 5. TECHNOLOGY 6. The Last 5-6 Years

  • Youtube started
  • Telephone becomes a PC
  • Touch screens
  • Tablets
  • Internet boom
  • Social networks
  • The Cloud
  • Google Maps
  • Virtual worlds
  • Freemium business model
  • PayPal turns mainstream
  • Ebay turns us all to e-traders
  • Home video conferencing
  • Blogs, Wikis, Tweets, Peerindex & Klout
  • Robotic limbs

What would youhave done differentlyifyoud seen any of thisComing? Just as much changecoming in the nextfive years 7. First we do things differently Then we do different things 8. The Era of the Supercomputer

  • By 2018 supercomputers 500 times faster than the most powerful today.

Source: PC World, June 2011http://www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/article/230708/sgi_intel_plan_to_speed_up_supercomputers_500_times_by_2018.html http://www.cse.tum.de/overview/cse.html 9. New era of mass communication

  • Today's Internet has 1.9 bn users.
  • World population is 7 bn people.
  • By 2020 Internet will have 5 bn users.National Science Foundation in the U.S for one predicts
  • Connecting 3 billion people
  • Mostly in emerging markets
    • 26% of global economic activity
    • Half of businesses cant get online.
    • Africa 1 internet connection/1,000 pcs

http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.showArticle&art_aid=96642 http://networks.silicon.com/webwatch/0,39024667,39193696,00.htm http://www.siliconrepublic.com/news/article/11665/comms/telecoms-industry-sees-opportunity-in-tough-times theOther 3 Billion 10. Changing engagement

  • 2020 - 35 zettabytes 44 times more than 2009.
  • 75%of data already user generated:
    • Forwarding a link, rating a site, commenting on a blog, twittering, sharing bookmarks, sharingyour location, logging into websites, liking something on Facebook.
  • Everywhere we go, everything we do,every move we make:
    • creates click-trails,
    • leaves digital breadcrumbs,
    • produces data exhaust, and creates meta-content.

Wired.com post and a related IDC study 11. The Mobile Network - 2015

  • Data traffic to increase 26-fold.
  • 7bn mobile-connected devices.
  • Speeds increase 10-fold.
    • Mobile-connected tablets will generate as much traffic in 2015 as the entire global mobile network in 2010.
    • The average smartphone will generate 1.3 GB of traffic per month in 2015, a 16-fold increase over the 2010.

Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile DataTraffic Forecast Update, 20102015 Feb 2011http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns537/ns705/ns827/white_paper_c11-520862.pdf 12. Engaging with technology

  • Speech recognition and artificial intelligence (AI) enable natural user interface:
    • Gesture
    • Speech
    • Look
  • Virtual assistants to serve as secretaries, tutors, salespeople.
  • Almost all routine work(TechCast)

The keyboard and mouse are dead 13. Disruption$35Aakash Tablet 14.

  • 80% of executives worldwide believe that enterprise-wide collaboration is the key to success.

15. Social networks

    • Change the way we live
      • Already changing social andpolitical processes.
    • Change the way we work
    • New Management processes
      • Raise problems and allow those with a contribution to collaborate.
      • Faster and more creative solutions.

16. Artificial Intelligence

  • Artificial Intelligences - we will interact with them just like humans.
  • e-technology will have advanced to the point where there are fewer human interactions with a more strategic focus and broader capabilities
  • Face recognition that identifies emotional changes.

Source:http://www.supplymanagement.co.uk/EDIT/Featured_articles_item.asp?id=16394 24 hours a day, 7 days a week online and available 17. Engaging through technology

  • Telepresence market to be worth $4.7 billion in 2014.
  • As organisations cut:
    • Travel costs
    • Carbon footprint
    • Increase productivity(Winter Green Research, Techcast).

Source: TMC Newshttp://www.tmcnet.com/channels/telepresence/articles/62985-telepresence-market-reach-47-billion-2014-report.htm Source: Venture Beathttp://venturebeat.com/2010/03/04/virtual-events-keep-growing-and-even-comdex-makes-a-comeback-online/ Video Conferencing / Telepresence 18. Surrounded by technology

  • 15bn connected devices by 2015.
  • Integrates physical & virtual world.
  • Objects sense their environment and communicate its status.
  • Tools to understanding complexity.
  • Ubiquity creates new models.

Source(1): Forbes 2010http://www.forbes.com/2010/03/20/internet-connectivity-personalization-technology-cio-network-sensors.html?boxes=Homepagechannels Source(2): eLearnSpace, 2010http://www.elearnspace.org/blog/2010/03/19/the-internet-of-things-2/ 22 billion devices by 2020 Internet of things 19. Engaged in technology

  • By 2019
  • 3D virtual reality displays,
  • Embedded in glasses and contact lenses.
  • Primary interfaces for communication with other persons, computers, the Web, and virtual reality.(Kurzweil)
  • Linking our senses directly with other peoples senses or with machines.

20. Convergence of Online & Offline 21. SMART CITY LIVING 22. City living use, dont own The default mindset of the digital generation 23. A life in context

  • Where am I?
  • What am I doing?
  • Whos around me?
  • What would help me?
        • Where
        • What
        • Who
        • How

24. Smart (integrated) living

  • Diary
  • Household systems
  • Weather
  • Transportation services
  • Smart grids
  • Office ( if you go to one at all )
  • Environmental services
  • Retail
  • Entertainment
  • Identity
  • Payments

25. Integration

  • Vision
  • Strategy
  • Implementation
  • Systems
  • Infrastructure
  • Data

26. CITY WIDE INTEGRATION 27. Organisation Individual Commercial Strategy Operational Purpose Vision Resources Foresight Copyright Next Visioning ip Ltd. 2012 Next Culture Behaviour Cycles Values Comms Capability 28. Individual Strategy Vision Operational Resources Purpose Foresight Culture Behaviour Cycles Values Comms Capability Copyright Next Visioning ip Ltd. 2012 Next Commercial Organisation 29. Organize for performance & customer satisfaction. Disorganize for renewal & innovation. 30. Successful leaders of change 31. 32.

  • If you want to get ahead you need to look ahead
  • +44 7932 408901

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