darryn mcevoy – climate change – the great contemporary dilemma

13
Professor Darryn McEvoy Leader of the Climate Change Adaptation Program, Global Cities Institute, RMIT University Deputy Director, Victorian Centre for Climate Change Adaptation (VCCCAR) Solutions and future directions: YVW, August 2011

Upload: yarra-valley-water

Post on 30-Nov-2014

795 views

Category:

Business


1 download

DESCRIPTION

 

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Darryn McEvoy – Climate Change – the great contemporary dilemma

Professor Darryn McEvoy

Leader of the Climate Change Adaptation Program, Global Cities Institute, RMIT University

Deputy Director, Victorian Centre for Climate Change Adaptation (VCCCAR)

Solutions and future directions: YVW, August 2011

Page 2: Darryn McEvoy – Climate Change – the great contemporary dilemma

RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute

Outline of presentation1. Climate change: the great contemporary dilemma

2. Clarifying climate change agendas

3. What should we be adapting to?

4. Research activity in Victoria

5. Challenges and opportunities facing business and industry

Page 3: Darryn McEvoy – Climate Change – the great contemporary dilemma

RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute

Climate change: the great contemporary dilemma

Page 4: Darryn McEvoy – Climate Change – the great contemporary dilemma

RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute

Current day impacts

Page 5: Darryn McEvoy – Climate Change – the great contemporary dilemma

RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute

Clarifying climate change agendas

Climate science / impacts

Global warming / mitigation

Climate change / adaptation / disaster risk reduction

Mitigation: ‘avoiding the unmanageable’

Adaptation: ‘managing the unavoidable’

Page 6: Darryn McEvoy – Climate Change – the great contemporary dilemma

RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute

What should we be adapting to?Low emissions scenario

2070High emissions scenario

2070Temperature + 0.9 ºC to + 2.0 ºC + 1.8 ºC to + 3.8 ºC

Number of days over 35 ºC: Melbourne (current 9)

14 20

Number of days over 35 ºC: Mildura

(current 32)

45 59

Rainfall + 2% to - 14% + 3% to - 25%

Drought Likely increase between 10% and 80%

Extreme events

Sea level rise Likely rise between 0.18m to 0.59m by 2095, with a possible much greater rise

Extremes Likely to be more extreme rain events, and more extreme bushfire events

Page 7: Darryn McEvoy – Climate Change – the great contemporary dilemma

RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute

Research activity: RMIT• Impact of the 2009 heatwave on critical urban infrastructure

• Framing climate change adaptation – guidance for local authorities / capacity building (navigator, economics, social narratives)

• Emergency management (bushfires) and use of IT simulation to improve decision-making

• Climate resilient seaports

• Climate change and sustainable urban development in the Asia-Pacific region

Page 8: Darryn McEvoy – Climate Change – the great contemporary dilemma

RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute

Research activity: Victorian Centre for Climate Change Adaptation Research (VCCCAR)

2010 2011

Scenarios Responding to the urban heat island

Resilient urban systems Enhancing Water Infrastructure Provision with Climate Change Uncertainty

Integrated land management Learning from Indigenous and traditional community knowledge

Framing adaptation Design-led decision support for regional climate adaptation

Page 9: Darryn McEvoy – Climate Change – the great contemporary dilemma

RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute

‘Think tank’ activity: VCCCAR

• Adapting aspirations and expectations on the coastal suburban and regional fringe

• Gippsland climate change and adaptation study

• Regional Business Development in a Variable and Changing Climate: Strategies for Central Victoria

Page 10: Darryn McEvoy – Climate Change – the great contemporary dilemma

RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute

Challenges• Means and variability in

climate will be different in the future, and spatially / regionally differentiated

• How to cope, and make decisions, under conditions of uncertainty

• Future climate change is only one source of uncertainty

• Multiple hazards and joint probability events

• Cascading effects

• Importance of socio-economic drivers (climate adaptation / climate sensitive / non climate)

Flooding in Victoria 2011: Herald Sun

Page 11: Darryn McEvoy – Climate Change – the great contemporary dilemma

RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute

Opportunities• Tools for helping to cope with

uncertainty: use of scenarios, risk assessment, flexible management approaches

• Australia long experience of dealing with variable climate

• A chance to capitalise on past success and encourage further innovation

• Emerging markets: new technologies and behaviour change (water tanks etc)

• Adaptation as an iterative learning process, which requires new relationships and ways of working

Page 12: Darryn McEvoy – Climate Change – the great contemporary dilemma

RMIT University©2010 CCAP, Global Cities Institute

More informed decision-making

Page 13: Darryn McEvoy – Climate Change – the great contemporary dilemma

Thanks for your attention

[email protected]