Current Employment Current Employment Statistics &Statistics &

Local Area Unemployment Local Area Unemployment Statistics Statistics

BasicsBasics

Joseph Winter, CES/LAUS Supervisor

Two Labor Market Information Programsthat Estimate Employment in Colorado

Monthly

Current Employment Statistics (CES) and

Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Value as an Economic Indicator

Data on employment and unemployment are used to:

• Evaluate the economic health of the States and the US.

• Guide monetary policy decisions

• Assess the growth of various industries

• Contribute to other statistics, such as GDP

• Detect and plan for swings in the business cycle

• Guide decisions on plant location, sales, and purchases

CES AND LAUS:

• Current monthly estimates of employment

• Federally-funded programs

• Mandated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Why are there 2 different programs that estimate employment?

1. Two Different Surveys

• CES: Survey of Business Establishments

• LAUS: Survey of Households

2. CES and LAUS Cover Different

Aspects of the Labor Market

Why are there 2 different programs that estimate employment?

• Benefit of CES: Employment by Industry

• Benefit of LAUS: Employment by County

Let’s discuss each program in more detail

CES: Survey of Business Establishments

• Colorado’s CES program obtains employment data on over 5,000 business establishments every month

• In order to obtain information on the number of jobs in Colorado, the CES program mails out this survey to businesses located in Colorado

Current Employment Statistics

How is Employment Defined?

• CES employment is defined as the number of employees at a business establishment who receive pay for the pay period that includes the 12th of the month.

• People who work on multiple payrolls are counted at each establishment.

Current Employment Statistics

Who is Included as Employed in CES?

• full time and part time workers• temporary workers • employees on paid holiday or sick leave• those who worked for only part of the pay period

Current Employment Statistics

Who is not Included?

• self employed • agricultural workers• volunteers • unpaid family workers • domestic workers • employees on leave without pay• employees who are on strike for the entire pay period

CES data is available by INDUSTRY

Industry Feb-04 Jan-04 Feb-03

Over-the-Month

Change

Over-the-Year

Change

Total Nonfarm          2,131.4 2,131.7 2,159.0 -0.3 -27.6

 Natural Resources & Mining  12.8 12.9 12.9 -0.1 -0.1

 Construction          144.5 146.1 153.5 -1.6 -9.0

 Manufacturing         153.3 153.1 159.7 0.2 -6.4

 Trade, Transportation, & Utilities 399.4 399.1 407.8 0.3 -8.4

 Information           82.1 82.7 86.1 -0.6 -4.0

 Financial Activities  153.9 153.3 152.8 0.6 1.1

 Professional and Business Services 282.1 280.7 287.6 1.4 -5.5

 Educational and Health Services 218.4 217.4 211.2 1.0 7.2

 Leisure and Hospitality 243.2 244.0 245.0 -0.8 -1.8

 Other Services        85.6 86.2 85.2 -0.6 0.4

Government             356.1 356.2 357.2 -0.1 -1.1

**Employment is in thousands

Current Employment Statistics

• Colorado Statewide• Denver Metro• Boulder• Colorado Springs

CES Employment Data is Available for:

CES data is not available at the COUNTY level

Applying CES Data

• When did Colorado’s employment peak?

• How many jobs have been lost since employment peaked?

Colorado Total Nonfarm Seasonally Adjusted Employment

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

Jan

-94

Jan

-95

Jan

-96

Jan

-97

Jan

-98

Jan

-99

Jan

-00

Jan

-01

Jan

-02

Jan

-03

Jan

-04

em

plo

ym

ent (t

housands)

Applying CES Data

Colorado Total Nonfarm Employment: Unadjusted vs Seasonally Adjusted

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

empl

oym

ent-

-tho

usan

ds

unadj seas adj

Applying CES Data

• What has been happening to Construction employment in Colorado?

• How does that compare with the number of building permits issued in Colorado?

Comparison of Colorado's Construction Employment and Annual Building Permits

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

build

ing

perm

its

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

empl

oym

ent

(thou

sand

s)

Building Permits Construction Employment

Applying CES Data

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

Construction Employment's % of Total Employment

CO US

How does Colorado’s construction employment compare to the US?

Applying CES Data

Colorado's Employment in Leisure & Hospitality

165

185

205

225

245

265

285

em

plo

yme

nt-

-th

ou

san

ds

What do the seasonal hiring patterns look like in Leisure & Hospitality?

Applying CES Data

Colorado's Employment in Professional & Business Services

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan-

94

Jul-9

4

Jan-

95

Jul-9

5

Jan-

96

Jul-9

6

Jan-

97

Jul-9

7

Jan-

98

Jul-9

8

Jan-

99

Jul-9

9

Jan-

00

Jul-0

0

Jan-

01

Jul-0

1

Jan-

02

Jul-0

2

Jan-

03

Jul-0

3

Jan-

04

empl

oym

ent

(tho

usan

ds)

How does that compare with hiring patterns in Professional & Business Services?

Measuring Colorado’s Employment

Recall that:

CES estimates employment from a survey of business establishments

LAUS measures employment from a survey of households

LAUS: Survey of Households

• Colorado’s LAUS program obtains employment information on approximately 1,500 households every month

• This information is obtained from the Current Population Survey conducted in cooperation with the Bureau of the Census

 

Entire PopulationEntire Population

Population that includes institutionalized, noncivilians, or those under 16 yrs of age

Population that includes institutionalized, noncivilians, or those under 16 yrs of age

Civilian, noninstitutionalized population over the age of 16

Civilian, noninstitutionalized population over the age of 16

In the Labor ForceIn the Labor Force Not in the Labor ForceNot in the Labor Force

EmployedEmployed

UnemployedUnemployed

Local Area Unemployment Statistics

Who is in the Labor Force?

All civilian, noninstitutionalized persons 16 years of age or older classified as employed or unemployed make up the labor force

(1) Worked for at least 1 hour as a paid employee

(2) Worked in their own business or on their own farm

(3) Worked a minimum of 15 hours as an unpaid worker in an enterprise operated by a family member

(4) Was not working but has a job from which they were temporarily absent

Local Area Unemployment Statistics

Who is Considered Employed in LAUS?

An employed person is one who, during the calendar week of the 12th of the month, did one of the following:

Local Area Unemployment Statistics

Who does this Include?

• Self-employed• Full time and part time employees• Temporary employees• Farm workers• Unpaid family workers• Employees on leave without pay• Employees on paid holiday or sick leave• Domestic workers• Employees on strike• Individuals who work multiple jobs are only counted once

(1) They were not employed during the calendar week of the 12th of the month

(2) They were available for work during the calendar week of the 12th of the month

(3) And they made specific attempts to find employment some time during the 4-week period that ends with the week of the 12th of the month

Local Area Unemployment Statistics

Who is Considered Unemployed?

An unemployed person is one who meets ALL of the following criteria:

Local Area Unemployment Statistics Who does this Include?

• An individual whose employment ends involuntarily

• An individual who ends their employment voluntarily

• An individual who has worked before but is not working prior to beginning their job search (often called a reentrant)

• An individual who has never worked before and is entering the labor force for the first time (often called a new entrant)

REMEMBER: They must be actively seeking employment!

Local Area Unemployment Statistics

Who is not in the Labor Force?

• This includes “discouraged workers” who want to work, are available for a job, have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months, but are not currently looking for employment

• What other individuals would not be counted in the labor force?

Those not in the labor force include all persons age 16 or older in the civilian, noninstitutional population who are not classified as employed or unemployed

Entire PopulationEntire Population

Population that includes institutionalized, noncivilians, or those under 16 yrs of age

Population that includes institutionalized, noncivilians, or those under 16 yrs of age

Civilian, noninstitutionalized population over the age of 16

Civilian, noninstitutionalized population over the age of 16

In the Labor ForceIn the Labor Force Not in the Labor ForceNot in the Labor Force

EmployedEmployed UnemployedUnemployed Discouraged WorkersDiscouraged Workers

Local Area Unemployment Statistics

Let’s look at one of the most common applications of LAUS data:

Unemployment Rate:The percentage of the labor force that is unemployed

UnemploymentRate =

Number Unemployed

Civilian Labor ForceX 100

LAUS data is presented by COUNTY

Applying LAUS Data

Comparison of the Unemployment Rate: Colorado and the US

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

COLORADO US

How does Colorado’s Unemployment Rate compare with the US?

Applying LAUS Data

Denver Metro Labor Force Statistics

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

thou

sand

s

LABOR FORCE

EMPLOYED

UNEMPLOYED

How has the number of unemployed people in Denver changed over the past 10 years?

Applying LAUS Data

Mesa County Labor Force Statistics

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

LABOR FORCE

EMPLOYED

UNEMPLOYED

How does that compare with Mesa County?

El Paso County Labor Force Statistics

230,000

240,000

250,000

260,000

270,000

280,000

290,000

Employed

Labor Force

Unemployed

Applying LAUS Data

How does El Paso County compare with Teller County?

Applying LAUS Data

Teller County Labor Force Statistics

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

Employed

Labor Force

Unemployed

Important Differences between CES and LAUS

• Survey of businesses vs survey of households

• Self employed not counted in CES

• Agricultural workers not counted in CES

• CES counts multiple job holders

• Industry data vs County data

CES vs LAUS

Total Employment in ColoradoMarch 2004:

CES = 2,141,200

LAUS = 2,363,900

Limitations to CES and LAUS

• CES employment data is not available at the county level

• LAUS employment data is not available at the industry level

Where can I find employment data by INDUSTRY & COUNTY?

Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages

For Example:

Data can be obtained on the number of people in Douglas County who are employed in Construction

QCEW (also referred to as ES-202) employment and wage data comes from Unemployment Insurance (UI) Tax records and is published at the county and industry level.

Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages

Construction Employment: Douglas County vs Weld County

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03

Douglas County Weld County

Applying the Data

How does Construction employment in Douglas County compare with Weld County?

Limitations to QCEW

• Not as current as CES and LAUS

• Not a time series — break in January 2001

• Does not include anyone who is not covered by unemployment insurance

• Does not include self-employed

Things to consider:

• Do I need employment data by industry, county, or both?

• How important is the timeliness of the data?

• Do I need data that includes self-employed or agricultural workers?

• Do I need information on wages?

Finding the data that serves your needs

Questions?