Current Correctional Population Trends

James Austin, Ph.D.JFA Institute

FIGURE 2A: Reported Crime and Population:Las Vegas MPD Jurisdiction 1995-2010

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

UCR Part I CrimesPopulation

UCR Part I Crimes Axis Population Axis

NOTE: The FBI's Uniform CrimeReports for 1997 did notshow the reported crimefor the Las Vegas MetropolitanPolice Department jurisdiction.

Prison Population Trends

FIGURE 3: Accuracy of JFA's February 2011 ForecastTotal Male Inmate Population: January 2011 through February 2012

11,000

11,250

11,500

11,750

12,000

12,250

12,500

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2012

Feb2012

2011

# of

inm

ates

Male (Actual)Male (Projected)

Avg Monthly Numeric Difference: 36Avg Monthly Percent Difference: 0.3%

FIGURE 4: Accuracy of JFA's February 2011 ForecastTotal Female Inmate Population: January 2011 through February 2012

800

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2012

Feb2012

2011

# of

inm

ates

Female (Actual)Female (Projected)

Avg Monthly Numeric Difference: 7Avg Monthly Percent Difference: 0.7%

FIGURE 12: Projected Male New Comittment Admissions and Stock PopulationApril 2012 Forecasts

12,07811,88312,268

4,217 4,3234,269

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

# of

inm

ates

(pro

ject

ed)

Male Stock 4/12

Male NC Admits 4/12

FIGURE 13: Projected Female New Comittment Admissions and Stock PopulationApril 2012 Forecasts

1,005

1,044

1,073

613 629644

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

# of

inm

ates

(pro

ject

ed)

Female Stock 4/12

Female NC Admits 4/12

6,842

7,1116,876

7,1417,322

7,500 7,4767,687

8,446

9,281

8,834

8,406

7,647

7,403

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Figure 5. Nevada Probation Population 1998-2011

AB 510 July 2007

1,113

1,314

1,408

1,585

1,7081,672

1,502

1,141

1,287

1,405

1,328

1,408

1,702

1,783

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Figure 2. Nevada Parole Population 1998-2011

AB 510 July 2007

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%Ju

l-02

Sep-

02No

v-02

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03M

ar-0

3M

ay-0

3Ju

l-03

Sep-

03No

v-03

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04M

ar-0

4M

ay-0

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l-04

Sep-

04No

v-04

Jan-

05M

ar-0

5M

ay-0

5Ju

l-05

Sep-

05No

v-05

Jan-

06M

ar-0

6M

ay-0

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l-06

Sep-

06No

v-06

Jan-

07M

ar-0

7M

ay-0

7Ju

l-07

Sep-

07No

v-07

Jan-

08M

ar-0

8M

ay-0

8Ju

l-08

Sep-

08No

v-08

Jan-

09M

ar-0

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ay-0

9

Figure 3. Nevada Department of Parole Success Rates FY 2003-FY 2009

AB 510 July 2007

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Jul-0

2Se

p-02

Nov-

02Ja

n-03

Mar

-03

May

-03

Jul-0

3Se

p-03

Nov-

03Ja

n-04

Mar

-04

May

-04

Jul-0

4Se

p-04

Nov-

04Ja

n-05

Mar

-05

May

-05

Jul-0

5Se

p-05

Nov-

05Ja

n-06

Mar

-06

May

-06

Jul-0

6Se

p-06

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06Ja

n-07

Mar

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-07

Jul-0

7Se

p-07

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n-08

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-08

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-08

Jul-0

8Se

p-08

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08Ja

n-09

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-09

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-09

Figure 6. Nevada Probation Success Rates FY 2003-FY 2009

AB 510 July 2007

Class Bs

Large Number of Class Bs Placed on ProbationNumber Charge

107 Assault with a Deadly Weapon29 Attempted Sexual Assault91 Battery

402 Burglary101 Child Abuse29 Child Pornography118 Coercion23 Discharging a firearm60 Driving under the influence of alcohol20 Embezzlement54 Ex felon/ Prohibited person possession firearm35 Fail to stop on signal of peace officer/eluding/evading37 Grand Larceny25 Home invasion30 Impersonating another/stealing/using ID information of another37 Leave scene of accident99 Lewdness with a minor under 149 Manslaughter

19 Obtain money/property/services under false pretenses120 Theft36 Reckless driving under the influence of alcohol

235 Robbery245 Sale/Possession of controlled substance80 Other

2,041  Total

Recidivism• There are three ways to measure recidivism

– 3 years return to prison rate– 3 year re-conviction rate– 3 year re-arrest rate

• National return to prison rate is 44-45%• Nevada return to prison rate is 25%• Why Nevada’s rate has and continues to be low

– Significant number of people release to CA or ICE– Number of low risk people– Deterrence of imprisonment– Treatment effects– Maturation effects