14 JULY – 18 JULY 2014

W E E K L Y

R

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P

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Buy on fear, sell on greed.

Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.

The trend is your friend.

Amateurs want to be right.

Professionals want to make money.

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REFERENCE RATE

(USD) 60.1855

REPO RATE 8%

REVERSE REPO 7%

CRR 4%

INFLATION 6.01%

KEY RATES As on 11/07/2014

MARKET EVENTS MARKET OUTLOOK

Markets eyed on Union Budget to be

presented last week but reeled

disappointment due lack of specifics

in it by Govt. as they left open

questions on how it will reduce the

fiscal deficit and restore investor

confidence and hence rupee

depreciated on the same day.

However, it gained on Friday on

dollar sales by a large corporate but

that was not enough to prevent the

weekly fall of rupee by 0.3%

snapping two weeks of gains.

Coming week is looking out for CPI

and WPI data to be released on

Monday which may be key factors

for its direction further.

Rupee posts 1st weekly fall in

3; gains on day on corp dollar

sales.

Euro dips in Asia on

Portuguese bank woes.

Yuan set to fall slightly this

week underperforms

midpoint.

Pound Rally Wanes Amid Signs

of Slowing U.K. Growth

CURRENCIES PREVIOUS

RATE

CURRENT

RATE % CHANGE

USDINR 60.0350 60.1850 0.24

EURINR 81.5550 81.8875 0.40

GBPINR 102.8225 103.0425 0.21

JPYINR 58.8400 59.4000 0.95

USDINR

EURINR

USDINR last week consolidated mainly in a tight range and finally closed on a flat note. It found

support around 59.9000 and strong rebounding was seen towards 60.4000. Consolidation is

continuing since last four weeks and it needs a closing above 60.6000 to gain strength and move

on higher side while 59.7000 may act as key support for the coming week.

EURINR last week consolidated near the lower band of upward channel pattern and closed on a

flat note with positive bias. If the positive biasness continues then it may move towards the upper

band i.e. in the resistance range of 82.6000-82.9000. While on lower side, breakout of channel

pattern may happen if it decisively surpasses the level of 81.4000.

CURRENCIES S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 USDINR 59.7000

59.3000 59.0000 60.7000 61.0000 61.4000

EURINR 81.4000 80.9000 80.4000 82.3000 82.7000 83.2000

GBPINR 102.4000 102.0000 101.6000 103.6000 104.0000

104.4000

JPYINR 58.9000 58.6000 58.3000 59.8000

60.2000 60.6000

PIVOT TABLE

DATE TIME COUNTRY EVENT BLOOMBERG

ESTIMATE

PREVIOUS

LEVEL

14-JULY-2014 5:30

PM INDIA Indian CPI (YOY) 7.95% 8.28%

15-JULY-2014 06:00

PM US

Core Retail Sales

m/m 0.5% 0.1%

15-JULY-2014 6:00

PM US Retail Sales m/m 0.6% 0.3%

17-JULY-2014 6:00

PM US

Unemployment

Claims 310k 304k

INTERNATIONAL UPDATES

Canadian Dollar Drops amid Unexpected Decline in Jobs.

Brazil’s Real Posts Weekly Decline on Renewed Portugal Stress.

Yen Rises Versus Most Majors on European Bank Stress.

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DISCLAIMER