csp presentation from ases

COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 1

Concentrating Solar:Ready for takeoff – or stalled on the launchpad?

ASESMay 18, 2011

Brett Prior, CFASenior Analyst

Greentech Media / GTM Research


CSP PV

Trough

Tower Dish

CLFR Flat plate

CPV


Future looks bright for CSP

Source: GTM Research

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

In Operation Construction withPPA/FIT

Development withPPA/FIT

Development, no PPA/FIT

Capa

city

(MW

)

Global CSP Projects by Technology 18,706 MW Total

Each symbol = 1,000 MW

TBAMicroCSPCLFRDish-EnginePower TowerParabolic Trough

1,1671,639

6,841

9,058


Near term pipeline mostly trough, with tower in 2014+


-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1985 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015+

Annu

al N

ew C

apac

ity In

stal

led

(MW

)

Global CSP Project Pipeline by Expected Online Date 18,706 MW Total

Each Symbol = 1,000 MW

TBAMicroCSPCLFRDish-EnginePower TowerParabolic Trough

915 555

838

3,828 3,927

7,990

340 18860


95%

5%<1%

Spain: 582 MW

97%

1% 1% <1% <1%

U.S.: 507 MW

100%

Iran: 62 MW

Australia: 3 MW

Germany: 2 MW

France: 1 MW

Parabolic Trough Power Tower CLFR Dish Engine MicroCSP

CSP Plants In Operation (1,167 MW Total)


60%

40%

U.S.: 8,669 MW

70%2%

25%

1% 1%

Spain: 4,456 MW

12%

86%

2%

China: 2,500 MW

2%

96%Morocco: 520 MW

3% 11%14%72%

Australia: 520 MW

100%

Israel: 250 MW

100%Sudan: 250 MW

100%

Jordan: 100 MW

100%

South Africa: 100 MW

100%

UAE: 100 MW

India: 70 MW76%

14%

100%

Greece: 50 MW

100%

Italy: 28 MW

100%

France: 21 MW

100%Algeria: 20 MW

100%

Egypt: 20 MW

Parabolic Trough Power Tower CLFR Dish Engine MicroCSP TBA

CSP Plants Under Construction/Development (17,539 MW Total)


US CSP Market


Robust pipeline with trough & tower

BrightSource’s Ivanpah

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

In Operation Construction withPPA/FIT

Development withPPA/FIT

Development, no PPA/FIT

Capa

city

(MW

)US CSP Projects by Technology

9,176 MW TotalEach symbol = 1,000 MW

TBA

MicroCSP

CLFR

Dish-Engine

Power Tower

Parabolic Trough

507 672

5,583

2,414

BrightSource IvanpahAbengoa

Solana


1985 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015+

TBA - - - - - - - - -

MicroCSP - - 1 - - - - - -

CLFR - 5 - - - - - - -

Dish-Engine - - - 2 - - - - 155

Power Tower - - 5 - - 126 621 1,550 1,390

Parabolic Trough 340 - - 76 5 - 1,905 1,968 949

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Annu

al N

ew C

apac

ity In

stal

led

(MW

)

US CSP Project Pipeline by Expected Online Date 9,176 MW Total

Each Symbol = 1,000 MW

Dish-Engine

Power Tower

Parabolic Trough

126

2,526

3,518

2,494

Robust pipeline with trough & tower


UA Tech Park

Abengoa SolanaSTA Blythe

NextEra Genesis & Beacon

BrightSource Ivanpah


CALIFORNIA

NEVADA UTAH

ARIZONA

Parabolic Trough

Power Tower

Dish-Engine

PPA Signed No PPA Signed

5 MW 100 MW 250 MW 500 MW >1,000 MW

Size Represents Project Capacity in MW

Kingman Project (I & II)

Hualapai Valley Solar Project

Amargosa Farm Road

Crescent Dunes

BrightSource-Ivanpah

Coyote Springs (I & II)

Solana

Sonoran Solar

Quartzsite Solar

Rice Solar

Blythe (I & II)

Mt. Signal Solar

Imperial Valley I

Imperial Valley II

Victorville

Palmdale

Gaskell (I & II)

eSolar (I & II)

Beacon Solar

Fort Irwin

Mojave Solar

AMS

Palen

Genesis (I & II)

UA Tech Park

SolarCAT Pilot

Harper Lake

US CSP Project Tracker

Last update 2/14/11 Created by Brett Prior ([email protected])


US CSP Projects: Milestone Tracker Projects in yellow have PPAs & all required permitsDOE

Developer Project NameElectricity Purchaser State Technology

Break ground

Expected Online Date

Capacity, Gross (MW) P

PA

Per

iod

(yrs

)

App

rove

d by

PU

C

Fas

t-tr

acke

d

Draft EIS Final EIS

Final Record of Decision

AFC Filed

EC Proposed Decision

EC Final Decision

1705 Loan Guarantee

Projects under Construction1 BrightSource Ivanpah PG&E 1 PG&E CA Tower Oct-10 2012 126 25 Y Y 11/10/09 8/6/10 10/7/10 8/13/07 8/4/10 9/22/10 Conditional

2 BrightSource Ivanpah PG&E 2 PG&E CA Tower Oct-10 2013 133 25 Y Y 11/10/09 8/6/10 10/7/10 8/13/07 8/4/10 9/22/10 Conditional

3 BrightSource Ivanpah SCE SCE CA Tower Oct-10 2013 133 20 Y 11/10/09 8/6/10 10/7/10 8/13/07 8/4/10 9/22/10 Conditional

4 Abengoa Solar Solana Generating Station APS AZ Trough Dec-10 2012 280 30 Y ------------------Private------------------ 12/5/08 Closed

TOTAL 672

Projects under Development with PPAs1 Abengoa Solar Abengoa Mojave Solar (AMS) project PG&E CA Trough Dec-10 2013 250 25 ------------------Private------------------ 8/10/09 8/6/10 9/8/10

2 Acciona Fort Irwin US Army/utilitie

CA Trough 2014 500 ?3 Bell Independent UA Tech Park Thermal Storage

Demonstration ProjectTucson Electric

AZ Trough 2011 5 20 ------------------Private------------------

4 BrightSource BrightSource PG&E 5 PG&E CA Tower 2016 200 25 Y5 BrightSource BrightSource PG&E 6 PG&E CA Tower 2016 200 25 Y6 BrightSource BrightSource PG&E 7 PG&E CA Tower 2017 200 25 Y7 BrightSource Brightsource SCE (Solar Partners XVI-

XXI)SCE CA Tower 2013 1,200 20

8 BrightSource Coyote Springs 1 (PG&E 3) PG&E NV Tower 2014 200 25 Y ------------------Private------------------

9 BrightSource Coyote Springs 2 (PG&E 4) PG&E NV Tower 2015 200 25 Y ------------------Private------------------

10 Inland Energy Inc. Palmdale Hybrid Gas-Solar plant Yes CA Trough 2013 50 ? 8/4/08

11 Inland Energy Inc. Victorville 2 Hybrid Power Project Yes CA Trough 50 ? 2/28/07 5/30/08 7/16/08

12 MMR Power Solutions Mt. Signal Solar SDG&E CA Trough 49 20 Y13 NextEra Energy Beacon Solar Energy Project Yes CA Trough Dec-10 2012 250 ? ------------------Private------------------ 3/14/08 7/20/10 8/25/10

14 NextEra Energy Genesis Solar Energy Project-1 PG&E CA Trough Dec-10 2013 125 25 Y Y 4/19/10 8/30/10 11/4/10 8/31/09 8/19/10 9/29/10

15 NextEra Energy Genesis Solar Energy Project-2 PG&E CA Trough 2014 125 25 Y 4/19/10 8/30/10 11/4/10 8/31/09 8/19/10 9/29/10

16 NRG Energy Gaskell Sun Tower (Phase I) SCE CA Tower 2012 105 20 Y ------------------Private------------------

17 NRG Energy Gaskell Sun Tower (Phase II) SCE CA Tower 140 20 Y ------------------Private------------------

18 SolarReserve Crescent Dunes Solar Energy Project NV Energy NV Tower Jun-11 2013 100 25 Y Y 9/3/10 11/26/10 12/20/10 7/20/09 Part II

19 SolarReserve Rice Solar Energy (RSEP) PG&E CA Tower 3Q 2011 2013 150 25 Y ------------------Private------------------ 10/21/09 11/12/10 12/16/10 Part II

20 Solar Millennium LLC/Chevron Blythe (Phase I) SCE CA Trough Dec-10 2013 500 20 Y Y 4/6/10 8/20/10 10/25/10 8/24/09 8/11/10 9/15/10

21 Solar Millennium LLC/Chevron Blythe (Phase II) SCE CA Trough 2014 500 20 Y 4/6/10 8/20/10 10/25/10 8/24/09 8/11/10 9/15/10

22 Solar Millennium LLC Palen Solar Power Project SCE CA Trough Aug-11 2014 484 20 Y 4/7/10 8/24/09

TOTAL with PPAs 5,583

Projects under Development without PPAs23 Albiasa Solar Kingman Project (Phase I) APS? AZ Trough 3Q2011 2013 100 ------------------Private------------------

24 Albiasa Solar Kingman Project (Phase II) AZ Trough 100 ------------------Private------------------

25 Southwest Solar SolarCAT Pilot Plant AZ Dish 10 ------------------Private------------------

26 Harper Lake LLC Harper Lake Solar Plant CA Trough 250

27 Mohave Sun Power Hualapai Valley Solar Project AZ Trough 2011 2013 34028 NextEra Energy Sonoran Solar Energy Project (fka

Jojoba)AZ Trough 2011 2014 375 Y 4/9/10

29 NRG Energy eSolar 1 CA Tower 8430 NRG Energy eSolar 2 CA Tower 6631 Pacific Light & Power Westside Solar Project Kauai Island

Utility HI Trough 2011 2011 10 ------------------Private------------------

32 SolarReserve Crossroads APS/SRP AZ Tower 2012 2014 150 ------------------Private------------------ 2/7/11

33 SolarReserve Quartzsite Solar Energy Project AZ Tower 100

34 SolarReserve Saguache Solar CO Tower 200 ------------------Private------------------

35 Solar Millennium LLC Amargosa Farm Road NV Trough Nov-11 2014 484 Y 3/19/10 10/15/10 11/15/10

36 Tessera Solar San Luis Valley CO Dish 145 ------------------Private------------------

TOTAL without PPAs 2,414 TOTAL 8,669

Cancelled Projects1 Tessera Solar Buckeye Landfill Project AZ Dish Sep-11 2012 240 --------Private (City-Owned)---------

2 Tessera Solar Western Ranch TX Dish 2011 2013 27 ------------------Private------------------

3 Tessera Solar Calico Solar Project I (formerly Solar One)

SCE CA Dish Dec-10 2011 275 20 Y Y 3/30/10 8/6/10 10/20/10 12/2/08 9/25/10 10/28/10

4 Tessera Solar Calico Solar Project II (formerly Solar One)

SCE CA Dish 2014 575 ? Y Y 3/30/10 8/6/10 10/20/10 12/2/08 9/25/10 10/28/10

5 Tessera Solar Imperial Valley Solar Project I (formerly Solar Two)

SDG&E CA Dish Dec-10 2011 300 20 Y Y 2/22/10 7/28/10 10/5/10 6/30/08 8/26/10 9/29/10

6 Tessera Solar Imperial Valley Solar Project II (formerly Solar Two)

CA Dish Aug-12 2014 409 Y 2/22/10 7/28/10 10/5/10 6/30/08 8/26/10 9/29/10

7 Solar Millennium LLC Ridgecrest Solar Power Project SCE CA Trough Nov-11 2014 242 20 Y 4/7/10 9/12/09

8 Siemens Energy (Solel) Mojave Solar Park PG&E CA Trough 2014 553 25 YList compiled and maintained by Brett Prior ([email protected]). Updated 5/17/2011

State Energy CommissionPPA Land


Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) Analysis


$3.76 $3.86

$5.09

$3.63 $3.50 $3.62

$4.68

$6.20$7.00

$7.50

$-

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

PV: CdTe PV: Multi PV: Mono CLFR Dish-Engine Parabolic Trough (no storage)

Power Tower (no storage)

Parabolic Trough (with storage)

MicroCSP Power Tower (with storage)

Capital Cost ($/W-ac) by Solar Technology

AREVAKimberlina

$9.29SoluciaLebrija$8.72

TorresolGemasolar

$17.97

Upington$5.48

TorresolValle 1$8.52

SopogyHolaniku$21.29

StirlingMaricopa

$15.65

Siemens MSPAREVAModel plant

StirlingModel Plant

BrightSourceIvanpah

SolarReservemodel plantSTA

Amargosa

Sopogymodel plant

No Storage With Storage

Cost per watt is a key input for LCOE




Amargosa

Cameo

Beacon

Andasol-1ASTE-1 B

Badajoz 2

Blythe I

Cloncurry

EL REBOSO II

EL REBOSO III

Enerstar

Extresol-1 Fort Irwin

Gemasolar

Helioenergy 2

Helios II

Holaniku

Ciudad Real

Ivanpah PG&E 2

Kimberlina

Kingman I

Kogan Creek

Lebrija 1

Maricopa

Martin

Siemens Mojave

Nevada Solar One

Olivenza 1

Palen

PS10

Puerto Errado 2

Solaben 6Solacor 2

Solana

Borges

UA Tech Park

Whyalla

$0.00

$0.10

$0.20

$0.30

$0.40

$0.50

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

LCO

E ($

/kW

h)

Expected Online Date

LCOE for CSP Projects by Expected Online Date

50 MW

Bubble size scaled to plant size (in MW)

1 MW

250 MW

Since 2007, LCOE flat over time - but lower at scale


LCOE varies widely by solar technology


$0.062

$0.074

$0.104

$0.116

$0.123

$0.126

$0.126

$0.131

$0.137

$0.146

$0.155

$0.168

$0.05 $0.07 $0.09 $0.11 $0.13 $0.15 $0.17 $0.19

Gas CC

Wind

Gas CC (with GHG Compliance Tax)

Power Tower (dry, storage)

PV: CdTe, fixed

High CPV (lens)

PV: Mono, 1-axis

PV: Multi, fixed

CLFR (dry, no storage)

Power Tower (dry, no storage)

Parabolic Trough (wet, no storage)

Parabolic Trough (dry, no storage)

LCOE ($/kWh)

LCOE by Technology in 2011 ($/kWh)Including Expected Gross Margin


Our forecast for LCOE shows dramatic improvements


$0.16

$0.12

$0.18

$0.07

$0.15

$0.09

$0.19

$0.16

$0.08

$0.17

$0.06

$0.08

$0.10

$0.12

$0.14

$0.16

$0.18

$0.20

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

LCO

E ($

/kW

h)

LCOE Forecast by Technology, 2009-2020Including Expected Gross Margins


Market Share Analysis


Q&A

Brett Prior, CFASenior AnalystGTM Research

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

csp presentation from ases

Technology

csp plants

mw totalisrael

mw totalspain

robust pipeline

lcoe flat

us csp market

iikingman project

project capacity