creating conditions for success workshop documents (pdf)

Creating Conditions

for Student Success Workshop

November 18–19, 2013

Albuquerque, New Mexico

ExC-ELL

Evidence-Based Instruction for English Learners

Aligned With CCSS

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g

Margarita CalderónProfessor Emerita, Johns Hopkins University

Argelia CarreónMaría Trejo

Margarita Calderón & Associates

Margarita Calderón & Associates, Inc.

ExC-ELL Agenda

• Introduction, ongoing research, and program structures for ELs

• Examples of instructional strategies that ensure academic language close

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ensure academic language, close reading, and writing

• Implications for all subjects and classrooms


ExC-ELL Clock Buddies

• Draw a clock on your paper and indicate the hours: 12, 3, 6, 9.

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• Find one partner for each hour. Write your name on their clock and they write their name on yours.

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© Margarita Calderón & Associates, Inc. 2013. solution-tree.com Do not duplicate.

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ExC-ELL Results From the Five-Year Studies

• IES comparison study of K–4 dual language (DL), transitional bilingual (TB), and sheltered English instruction/structured English immersion (SEI)

• NIH seven-year study on transfer of skills

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• Carnegie Corporation of New York study in 6–12 general education teachers, ESL, SEI, SIFE, and bilingual teachers

• New study in NYC on RTI and LT-ELs


ExC-ELLKey: Teach Vocabulary

Before, During, and After Students Read

• Vocabulary knowledge correlates with reading comprehension.

• Reading comprehension correlates with procedural and content knowledge.

• Content knowledge correlates with academic

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• Content knowledge correlates with academic success.

• Comprehension depends on knowing between 90 and 95 percent of the words in a text.

• Knowing words means explicit instruction, not just exposure. Students need 12 production opportunities to own a word.


ExC-ELL Review of Academic Language

For formal discourse between teacher–student and student–student interaction around standards/goals

For text comprehension

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For words you want to see in their formal writing

For success in the new tests

For academic and economic status



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ExC-ELL Tier 3—Content Specific

Square root Photosynthesis Government

Rectangle Germ Bylaws

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Rectangle Germ Bylaws

Radical numbers

Atom Bailout

Circumference Matter Congressional

Pi square Osmosis Capital

Power Power Power


ExC-ELL

Polysemous words (homonyms or homographs) across academic content areas:

• solution

• table

• power

• cell

• fall• check

t

Tier 2—Subcategories

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• divide

• prime

• round

• trunk

• state

• right

• radical

• leg

• left

• light

• court• hand• long• pin• rest• roll• sense


ExC-ELL

Some examples of transition words and connectors for:

• Cause and effect—because, due to, as a result of, since,

for this reason, therefore, in order to, so that, thus …

• Contrast—or, but, although, however, in contrast,

nevertheless on the other hand while

Tier 2—Words That Nest Content Words and Concepts

9Margarita Calderón & Associates, Inc.

nevertheless, on the other hand, while …

• Addition or comparison—and, also, as well as, in

addition, likewise, moreover, by the way …

• Giving examples—for example, for instance, in particular,

such as …


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ExC-ELLTier 2—Sophisticated Words

for Specificity for the Word “Talk”

• Whisper

• Argue

• Specify

• Announce

R t

• Discuss

• Proclaim

• Shout

• Scream

C

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• Request

• Reveal

• Remark

• Declare

• Describe

• Pontificate

• Converse

• Communicate

• Verbalize

• Debate

• Articulate

• Question


ExC-ELL Spanish to English: ¡Fácil!

Fácil:

• Facile

• Facilitate

• Facilitator

Edificio:

• Edifice

• Edify

• Edification

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Facilitator

• Facilitation

Edification

ExC-ELL Tier 2—Sentence Starters

Summarizing. Students create a new oral text that stands for an existing text. The summary contains the important information or big ideas.

+ This story tells about a …

+ This section is about the …

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+ One important fact here is that …

Determining important information. Students tell the most important idea in a section of text, distinguishing it from details that tell more about it.

+ The main idea is …

+ The key details that support that are …

+ The purpose of this text is to …



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ExC-ELL Tier 2—Question Starters

• Can you help me _____?

• I don’t understand _____.

• Where is/are _____?

• How do I ?

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How do I _____?

• May I ask a question?

• How much time do we have for _____?

• Where do I _____?

• Would you please repeat that?


ExC-ELL Tier 1 Words for ELs

Tier 1 Problem Words

Examples

SpellingTough, toothache, phrase, highlight, because

Pronunciation or Weather/whether sum/some blue/blew

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Pronunciation or confusion with homophones

Weather/whether, sum/some, blue/blew, whole/hole, access/exes/axis, sell/cell, ship/chip

Background knowledge

Lawnmower, blender, parka, skyscraper

False cognates Exit, character, embarrassed, success


ExC-ELLSummary of

Vocabulary Tiers 1, 2, and 3 for ELLs

Tier 1—Basic words ELLs need to communicate, read, and write; those that should be taught

Tier 2—Information processing words that nest Tier 3 words in long sentences, polysemous words,

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transition words, connectors; more sophisticated words for rich discussions and specificity in descriptions

Tier 3—Subject-specific words that label content discipline concepts, subjects, and topics; infrequently used academic words



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ExC-ELLCriteria for Selecting

Words to Teach

It is critically important to the discipline.

It is critically important to this unit.

It is important to the understanding of the

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concept.

It is not critical but useful for ELLs.

It is not useful at this time.

ExC-ELL Identify and Classify Words

Type of Words Tier 3 Tier 2 Tier 1

Polysemous

Phrases (bundled up words, idioms)

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)

Cognates

Connectors and transition

Homophones

Other

ExC-ELL Multiple Applications of Words

Text Structure Writing Strategy Tier 2

Problem—solutions

• Problems are identified and solutions are

Accordingly, answer, as a result, because, challenge, decide, fortunately, if

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provided.• Supporting

details describe the problem and solution.

fortunately, if ___ then, issue, one reason is, outcome is, problem, so, solution, the problem is solved by, therefore, thus, unfortunately, trouble



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ExC-ELLPreteaching Vocabulary:An Example for 2nd to 12th

1. Teacher says the word. Ask students to repeat the word three times.

2. Teacher states the word in context from the text.

3. Teacher provides the dictionary definition(s).


4. Explain meaning with student-friendly definitions.

5. Highlight grammar, spelling, polysemy, etc.

6. Engage students in activities to develop word/concept knowledge.

7. Remind students how/when to use the word.

ExC-ELL

1. Teacher asks students to repeat the word.

2. Teacher states the word in context from the text.

3. Teacher provides the dictionary definition(s).

4 Explain meaning with student

1. Say effect three times.

2. Weather can have a big effect on your life.

3. The result or consequence of something

4. Two cups of coffee in the morning have a big effect on

Teaching Concepts/Vocabulary

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4. Explain meaning with student-friendly definitions.

5. Engage students in activities to develop word/concept knowledge.

6. Highlight features of the word: polysemous, cognate, tense, prefixes, etc.

7. Remind when to use it.

morning have a big effect on me—I can’t sleep at night!

5. What has had a big effect on your life recently? TTYP

6. It is a cognate—efecto. How do we spell effect? What other word is similar?

7. Use effect in your exit passtoday.

ExC-ELL More Examples for Step #6

Popcorn answers:

• If you are studying for a test, you need to do it persistently. What else do you need to do persistently?

Choral responses:

• Add seems to be faithful/

Answer and say why:

• Would you have iron will if you:

– Were afraid of cats?

– Were tired but kept running until you reached the finish line?

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• Add seems to be faithful/ unfaithful at the end of the sentence and say the whole sentence:– A cat who always comes home

before dark– A brother who takes care of his

sister– A girl who has three boyfriends– You provide an example for us

– Worked very hard to get an “A” on your report card?

Applaud and say the word:

• If you’d like to be described by the word: faithful, stubborn, awesome, awkward, impish, stern, illuminated


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ExC-ELL

OracyThe ability to express oneself fl tl d

Discourse• A formal

discussion of a t i i h

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fluently and grammatically in speech

topic in speech or writing

• Engage in conversation.


ExC-ELL Discourse for Text Discussions

• This is about …

• I understand this is about …

• I think this is about …

• This text is about …

• I liked the part where …

• I think this means …

• I don’t understand this

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• I liked the …

• I learned a new word …

• The same happened to me when …

part …

• That character reminds me of …

• That part reminds me of …

ExC-ELLVocabulary and Oracy Development

Takes Place During:

1. Preteaching of vocabulary

2. Teacher read-alouds

3. Student peer reading

4 Peer summaries

7. Cooperative learning activities

8. Formulating questions and numbered heads

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4. Peer summaries

5. Depth of word studies/grammar

6. Class discussions

numbered heads

9. Round table reviews

10. Prewriting and drafting

11. Revising/editing

12. Reading final product


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ExC-ELL

• Build content or concept background.

• Explicitly preteach key words and phrases for it.

• Set content objective and level

Before Reading Science, Math, Social Studies, and Language Arts

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• Set content objective and level of complexity for reading.

• Discuss text features and text structures.

• Model reading comprehension strategy.


ExC-ELL

Teacher Read- and Think-Alouds

Fluency

Comprehension strategies

Modeling Comprehension

MO

MO


Self-correction

Fix-it strategies

Extend comprehension.

Teach more words.

DEL

DEL

ExC-ELL

Coal fired electric plant Wind farm

Clean Energy Technologies


http://www.crystalgraphics.com/powerpictures/images.photos.asp?ss=wind%20power%20plantcommons.wikimedia.org


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ExC-ELL Clean Energy Technologies


https://www.google.com/#q=electric+car+images

Chellascommoncents.com/ cleaning

images.thetruthaboutcars.com

ExC-ELL

“For decades, America has anticipated the transformational impact of clean energy technologies. But even as costs fell and technology matured, a clean energy revolution always seemed just out of reach. Critics often said a clean energy future would ‘always be five years away.’

“This report focuses on four technology revolutions that are

Gaining Force

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This report focuses on four technology revolutions that are here today. In the last five years they have achieved dramatic reductions in cost and this has been accompanied by a surge in consumer, industrial and commercial deployment. Although these four technologies still represent a small percentage of their total market (e.g. electricity, cars and lighting), they are growing rapidly.”

—U.S. Department of Energy, Revolution Now (2013)

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ExC-ELL

“Since the beginning of 2008, wind power capacity has more than tripled in the U.S. This has happened despite a jump in wind turbine costs from 2001 to 2009. But that rise in turbine prices is, in some senses, misleading. The cost to install the same sized turbine, in an area

ith th l l f i d h d

Skyrocketing Demand, Downward Trending Prices


with the same level of wind resource has gone down.

“However, as more of the prime real estate for building wind farms—windy terrain near power lines and big cities—is populated by wind turbines, developers have moved to areas that are farther away from population centers and power lines, or have lower wind quality.”



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ExC-ELL

“Since the beginning of 2008, wind power capacity has more than tripled in the U.S. This has happened despite a jump in wind turbine costs from 2001 to 2009. But that


rise in turbine prices is, in some senses, misleading.”


ExC-ELL

“The cost to install the same sized turbine, in an area with the same level of wind resource has gone down. However, as more of the prime real estate for building wind farms—windy terrain near power lines and big cities is populated by

Where’s the Evidence?


near power lines and big cities—is populated by wind turbines, developers have moved to areas that are farther away from population centers and power lines, or have lower wind quality.”


ExC-ELL

• The teacher reads and models strategies.

• Partner A reads the first sentence. Partner B helps.

• Partner B reads the next sentence. Partner A

Partner Reading


helps.

• After each paragraph, partners “put their heads together” and summarize what they read using Tier 2 and Tier 3 words.

• Partners continue until they finish reading the section assigned.


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Expediting Comprehension

“In Your Head” “On Paper”

Visualizing Taking notes

Making predictions Using a highlighter

Generating questions Drawing graphs


g q g g p

Identifying main idea and details

Brainstorming ideas about the text

Using background knowledge

Underlining ideas in the text

Summarizing Making diagrams

ExC-ELL Land-Based Wind PowerWind deployments on a steep upward climb “Today, deployed wind power in the United States has the equivalent generation capacity of about 60 large nuclear reactors (4). Wind is the first non-hydro renewable energy source to begin to approach the same scale as conventional energy forms like coal, gas, and nuclear.

“This success has been decades in the making—with both government and private-sector R&D dollars propelling its progress. From a technology standpoint three elements have been key to wind power’s success. The first is increasing size: wind

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y p gturbines have gotten progressively larger in terms of generation capacity over the past 30 years and this has helped to drive down costs. In fact, since 1999 the average amount of electricity generated by a single turbine has increased by about 260%. The second is the scale of production. As with many industries, increases in scale tend to drive down costs. Finally, wind farm operators have become much more sophisticated in understanding and adapting to dynamic wind patterns. This has helped drive up the “capacity factor”—or the percentage of time that turbines are actually producing electricity. The federal Production Tax Credit—which pays an additional 2.3¢ a kilowatt hour for the electricity produced by wind turbines over the first 10 years of operation—has also been critically important to incentivizing deployment of wind energy.”


ExC-ELL

How is this beneficial to students?

How does the summary help

with oracy?

Let’s Debrief

Review the steps. What did you

observe during this strategy?

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ExC-ELL

“For decades, America has anticipated the transformational impact of clean energy technologies. But even as costs fell and technology matured, a clean energy revolution always seemed just out of reach. Critics often said a clean energy future would ‘always be five years away.’

“This report focuses on four technology revolutions that are

Gaining Force

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This report focuses on four technology revolutions that are here today. In the last five years they have achieved dramatic reductions in cost and this has been accompanied by a surge in consumer, industrial and commercial deployment. Although these four technologies still represent a small percentage of their total market (e.g. electricity, cars and lighting), they are growing rapidly.”


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ExC-ELLCCSS = Questions and

Language/Literacy Tasks

• High-quality sequences of text-dependent questions should be modeled.

• Questions should begin with relatively simple questions requiring attention to specific words, details and arguments and then more to


details, and arguments, and then more to explore the impact of those specifics on the text as a whole.

• Use a series of questions that demonstrates students’ ability to follow the details of what is explicitly stated in the text.

ExC-ELL Numbered Heads Together

1. Number off in your team from 1 to 4.

2. Listen to the question.

3. Put your heads together and find the answer.


y g

4. Make sure everyone in your team knows the answer.

5. Be prepared to answer when your number is called.


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ExC-ELL Roundtable

• Clear your desks.

• Use only one paper and pencil.

• Each student writes one answer and passes the paper to the right.

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• Everyone must write an answer.

• Continue this process until the teacher calls time out.

• Count the number of correct responses by your

team. Delete repeated words and report your numbers.


ExC-ELL Roundtable

• Write a key word from the text and pass the paper.

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• Keep writing one word at a time until time is up.

• The words must be Tier 2 or 3.


ExC-ELL Round 2

• Put your heads together and come up with a strategy to improve your team total.

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• Apply your strategy in Round 2 of Roundtable.

• Follow the same rules as for Round 1.



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ExC-ELL

The ultimate proof—at the end of the block, day, or week:

Write one or two paragraphs summarizing what you learned about ______________

i Ti 2 d Ti 3 d

Assessment and Writing

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using as many Tier 2 and Tier 3 words as you have learned.

Earn extra points if you use appropriate connector, transition, or signal words. Use compound sentences or different types of clauses.


ExC-ELL Inside the Foldable

Coordinating Conjunction

CorrelativeConjunction

Subordinating Conjunction

Conjunctive Adverb

FANBOYS:F – forA – andN – norB – butO or

both … andEither … orneither … nornot only … but also …Whether or

after, although, as, as if, as long as, as soon as, as though, because, before, even though, if, in order that, since, so

accordingly, again, also, besides, consequently, finally, furthermore, however, indeed, instead, moreover,

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O – orY – yetS – so

Whether … or that, than, though, unless, until, when, whenever, where, wherever, while

nevertheless, otherwise, then, therefore, thus

Samples:My dad and his friend met for lunch today.My examples:

Samples:Either the pencil orthe pen will work.My examples:

Samples:I made the grocery list after I checked the pantry.My examples:

Samples:The movie was good; however, I prefer the book.My examples:


ExC-ELL Writing to Learn

Writing Mode Purpose Key Verbs/Phrases

Description/ Expressive

Use concrete/sensory details to describe a person, place, or event so that reader can visualize and sense what is described.

Describe, create a picture.

N tiTell a story (real, personal, or Tell, tell about a time,


NarrationTell a story (real, personal, or imaginary) in a time sequence.

Tell, tell about a time, imagine that ….

Exposition/ Informative

Convey information by explaining ideas, facts, or processes without analysisor interpretation.

Explain, explain how, tell why (cause and effect), classify, compare and contrast.

Persuasion

Influence or convince the reader to agree with the writer by providing reasons or examples.

Convince/persuade/present an argument about an idea or point of view.


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ExC-ELL Writing to Learn

Writing Mode Purpose Key Verbs/Phrases

Problem/ Solution

Showing the development of a problem and one or more solutions to the problem; the author states a problem and various solutions or states a question-answer format and then answers the problem

Explain, because, consequently, as a result, ultimately, the answer was, added new parts, deleted old parts


Compare/ Contrast

Pointing out likenesses (comparison) and/or differences (contrast) among facts, people, events, concepts

Compare how two or more things are alike and/or are different. It is quite different from, it is so similar to, it is just like, it differs in that, in contrast, on the other hand

Cause/Effect

To show how facts, events, or concepts (effects) happen or come into being because of other facts, events, or concepts

Explain, explain how, tell why (cause and effect), classify, compare and contrast, when, consequently, as a result of

ExC-ELL Writearound

• Form teams of three or four.

• Use one paper and pencil for each.

• Each student completes the prompt and th t th i ht

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passes the paper to the right.

• Each student continues to write one sentence and pass the paper to the right until the teacher calls time out.


ExC-ELL Drafting: Team Chooses One

The historic shifts to a cleaner, more domestic and more secure energy future is a realistic goal because …

Or


Or

The historic shifts to a cleaner, more domestic and more secure energy future is not a realistic goal because …

Use as many Tier 2 and 3 words as possible.


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ExC-ELL Writearound 2

• Do a read-around-aloud.

• Read the composition you are holding

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p y gto your team.

• Select the one you like best. This is the one you will revise and edit.


ExC-ELL

Code Clue

Circle “To be” verbs:

is, am, are, was, were, be, being, been

Square First word in every sentence

Chart for Ratiocination

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Make a list of every first word.

Substitute with sophisticated transition word or connector.

Find Tier 1 word and substitute with Tier 2.

Add more Tier 3 words.


ExC-ELL Revising: Cut and Grow

Students cut their compositions right after the sentence where they are going to add evidence from the text.

The elaborated sentences are written on the

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The elaborated sentences are written on the colored sheet. Once written, the students tape the rest of their composition onto the colored sheet.

Students reread their improved compositions.



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ExC-ELL Thinking/Writing My Argument?

1. What is my point of view?

2. Is the evidence credible and accurate?

3 Is the evidence sufficient?

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3. Is the evidence sufficient?

4. Is the order of evidence appropriate?

5. Will my argument convince my readers?


ExC-ELL Writearound 4

• Ask a volunteer to read it to the class.

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• Ten minutes to prepare; one minute to read


ExC-ELL What Is RAFT?

R = role (Who are you as a writer?)

Allows students to take on a variety of roles to explore different points of view

A = audience (To whom are you writing?)

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The audience is clearly defined.

F = format (What form will the writing take?)Essay, speech, letter, dialogue, memo, etc.

T = topic (What is the subject?)Must be narrow enough so students are not overwhelmed.



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ExC-ELL Example of RAFT Assignments

R A F T

News reporterCollege-educated adults

News article Global warming

Astronomer First graders Travel guideJourney through the solar system

Acute triangle Obtuse triangle LetterDifferences

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Acute triangle Obtuse triangle Letteramong triangles

Jackie RobinsonHall of Fame audience

Acceptance speech

My life in baseball

Tornado trackerWeather reporter

InterviewFacts about tornados

Hermione Granger

Harry Potter DialogueWhy are you so suspicious?

Rosa Parks Historians Diary entry The boycott


ExC-ELL

• Each team tears two sheets of different colored construction paper into creative pieces.

• Share your piece with your team and talk about it—What does it look like?

Tear Ups!


• Write a group story with plot, characters, and background setting.

• Paste the pieces beside the story of that match.

• Share your story.

ExC-ELL

• Each team tears two sheets of different colored construction paper into creative pieces.

• First day procedures and rules

Argumentative (use five Tier 2 or 3 words)

Tear Ups!


• Argumentative (use five Tier 2 or 3 words)

• Narrative—setting, character, plot

• Paste the pieces beside the story of that match.

• Share your story.


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ExC-ELLVocabulary, Language, Literacy, and Knowledge Progressions

How do your students progress through the different proficiency levels?

Does their vocabulary progress in the four language domains—listening, speaking, reading, and writing?

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Does their vocabulary progress in the four core subjects—math, science, social studies, and language arts?

Is their academic language differentiated and targeted for each proficiency level and range of schooling background?


ExC-ELL

1. Adhere fidelity to all ExC-ELL components.

2. Have 80–100 percent of teachers in a school implementing ExC-ELL.

3 T i d i i t t d h

How to Be Successful

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3. Train administrators and coaches.

4. Coach teachers three to five times a year.

5. Implement TLCs/PLCs.

ExC-ELL

Wishing you success in your new endeavors!

ld @ l

Thank You!

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[email protected]@yahoo.com

www.margaritacalderon.org

202.368.4621



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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

Revolution Now The Future Arrives for Four Clean Energy

Technologies

September 17, 2013

Source: U.S. Department of Energy. Available for download from http://goo.gl/gc11ff

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Lead author Dr. Levi Tillemann, Special Advisor for Policy and International Affairs

Contributors Fredric Beck, DOE Wind Technology Program Dr. James Brodrick, DOE Solid-State Lighting Program Dr. Austin Brown, DOE National Renewable Energy Laboratory David Feldman, DOE National Renewable Energy Laboratory Tien Nguyen, DOE Fuel Cells Technology Office Jacob Ward, DOE Vehicles Technology Program


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Gaining Force For decades, America has anticipated the transformational impact of clean energy technologies. But even as costs fell and technology matured, a clean energy revolution always seemed just out of reach. Critics often said a clean energy future would “always be five years away.”

This report focuses on four technology revolutions that are here today. In the last five years they have achieved dramatic reductions in cost1 and this has been accompanied by a surge in consumer, industrial and commercial deployment. Although these four technologies still represent a small percentage of their total market (e.g. electricity, cars and lighting), they are growing rapidly.

The four key technologies this report focuses on are:

Onshore wind power Polysilicon photovoltaic modules LED lighting Electric vehicles

In recent years, it has become increasingly clear that well-designed federal and state incentives and investments in research and development have the potential to stimulate significant energy transformations. For instance, from 1980-2002 the U.S. federal government’s production incentives for shale gas and support for new drilling technologies laid the foundation for that industry’s dramatic rise.2 Today, time-limited tax credits for wind, solar and electric vehicles and targeted support for research and development are supporting the expansion of these burgeoning markets.

This analysis explains both the magnitude of and mechanisms behind these nascent revolutions – exploring the intersection between declining costs and surging demand. These industries are providing real world solutions for reducing emissions of harmful carbon pollution and slowing the effects of climate change. Each of the sectors examined has also become a major opportunity for America’s clean energy economy.

The trends in each sector show that the historic shift to a cleaner, more domestic and more secure energy future is not some far away goal. We are living it, and it is gaining force.

1Levelized cost is often cited as a convenient summary measure of the overall competiveness of different generating technologies. It represents the per-kilowatt hour cost (in real dollars) of building and operating a generating plant over an assumed financial life and duty cycle. Key inputs to calculating levelized costs include overnight capital costs, fuel costs, fixed and variable operations and maintenance (O&M) costs, financing costs, and an assumed utilization rate for each plant type. As with any projection, there is uncertainty about all of these factors and their values can vary regionally and across time as technologies evolve and fuel prices change. See the Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook 2013 for a deeper discussion regarding these issues: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/electricity_generation.cfm 2 Moniz, E. et al; The Future of Natural Gas: an interdisciplinary MIT Study, MIT, June, 2011.


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Land-Based Wind Power

Wind deployments on a steep upward climb3 Today, deployed wind power in the United States has the equivalent generation capacity of about 60 large nuclear reactors.4 Wind is the first non-hydro renewable energy source to begin to approach the same scale as conventional energy forms like coal, gas and nuclear.

This success has been decades in the making – with both government and private-sector R&D dollars propelling its progress. From a technology standpoint three elements have been key to wind power’s success. The first is increasing size: wind turbines have gotten progressively larger in terms of generation capacity over the past 30 years and this has helped to drive down costs. In fact, since 1999 the average amount of electricity generated by a single turbine has increased by about 260%. The second is the scale of production. As with many industries, increases in scale tend to drive down costs. Finally, wind farm

3Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan. MEMORANDUM - Documentation of a Historical LCOE Curve for Wind in Good to Excellent Wind Resource Sites; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, June 11, 2012. Bloomberg New Energy Finance power plant database (1980-1994) and American Wind Energy Association wind industry database (1994-2012). 4 This number refers to “nameplate capacity” which represents the peak generation capacity of a wind turbine, solar panel, etc. In practice, electricity generation from renewable resources is variable – which means that they do not always produce at nameplate capacity. See the Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook 2013 for a deeper discussion regarding these issues: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/electricity_generation.cfm


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operators have become much more sophisticated in understanding and adapting to dynamic wind patterns. This has helped drive up the “capacity factor” – or the percentage of time that turbines are actually producing electricity. The federal Production Tax Credit – which pays an additional 2.3¢ a kilowatt hour for the electricity produced by wind turbines over the first 10 years of operation – has also been critically important to incentivizing deployment of wind energy.

Skyrocketing demand, downward trending prices Since the beginning of 2008, wind power capacity has more than tripled in the U.S. This has happened despite a jump in wind turbine costs from 2001 to 2009. But that rise in turbine prices is, in some senses, misleading. The cost to install the same sized turbine, in an area with the same level of wind resource has gone down. However, as more of the prime real estate for building wind farms – windy terrain near power lines and big cities – is populated by wind turbines, developers have moved to areas that are farther away from population centers and power lines, or have lower wind quality. To compensate for lower wind speeds, many turbines are manufactured with bigger blades – to catch more wind. These bigger blades are more expensive, and this increase in costs was accentuated by the steep climb in commodity prices (e.g. steel and oil) from 2004-2008. But as commodity prices have receded, the average cost of new wind power has also started to recede, and deployment of wind turbines has skyrocketed. In 2012, the U.S. deployed almost twice as much wind as it did in 2011. In fact, wind accounted for 43% of new electrical generation capacity in the U.S. – more than any other source.

The future of wind Wind continues to be one of America’s best choices for low-cost, zero carbon, zero pollution renewable energy. The combined potential of land-based and off-shore wind is about 140 quads – or about 10 times U.S. electricity consumption today. And wind is 100% renewable, so it won’t ever run out. The industry is working to build new power transmission lines from some of the windiest parts of the country, to the most densely populated in order to maintain aggressive growth in the sector. This also includes building “marine” wind farms offshore – where steady ocean breezes harbor vast wind power potential. With continued technology improvements and policy support, the Department of Energy estimates that as much as 20% of projected U.S. electricity demand could be met by wind power by 2030.5

5 U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. 2012 Wind Technologies Report; U.S. Department of Energy, 2012. U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. 20% Wind Energy by 2030: Increasing Wind Energy’s Contribution to U.S. Electricity Supply, July 2008


25

Electric Vehicles

Accelerating deployment Electric cars run on cheap, clean and increasingly green American energy. Over the past five years, the Administration and industry have worked together to bring down the cost of EVs through funding research and development on batteries and promoting consumer adoption of EVs through tax and other incentives. Today, the numbers are clear: more and more drivers are abandoning the gas pump for the affordability and convenience of in-home electric charging.

A race to the clouds Before 2010, U.S. EV demand was almost nothing. But in 2012, Americans bought more than 50,000 plug-in electric vehicles. In the first half of 2013, Americans doubled the number of EVs they purchased compared to the same period in 2012.

To maintain this momentum the most critical area for cost reductions is batteries. Energy Department models for EV battery fabrication costs show that the cost of high volume EV batteries has fallen by more than 50% in the past four years. While actual battery production costs are a closely held industry secret, price reductions in commercial EVs also appear to be on a steady downward glide. These cost reductions can be attributed to a number of factors. So-called “process improvements” – which increase the efficiency of manufacturing by eliminating wasted materials, capital and time – are one key element.


26

So is higher production volume – which helps amortize capital costs for expensive facilities, assembly lines and robots used to build batteries. Finally, automakers are integrating new materials into EV batteries that both reduce cost and increase energy-density – or the amount of energy that can be stored in a battery. Today batteries are receiving an enormous amount of attention from universities, research labs, industry and government because of their critical role in enabling EVs and other clean energy technologies. Because of this, we expect costs will continue to decline even further.

Road to the future In many senses, EVs are already competitive with traditional cars. For instance, for three years in a row the Chevy Volt has topped JD Power’s APEAL Study on consumer satisfaction for compact sedans. And this spring Consumer Reports said the Tesla Model S was the best car they had ever tested.15 Fueling these cars is also cheap compared to filling up a gasoline-powered car. The Energy Department calls this cheap electric fuel an “eGallon,” and today an eGallon –the amount of electricity it takes to drive an EV the same distance a standard car can travel on one gallon of unleaded gasoline – costs only about $1.22. This is in large part because electric motors are about three times as efficient as combustion engines.

But further progress on reducing the cost of EV batteries will make these benefits available to a larger audience. Some private sector analysts have said that there is a relatively clear technology path to $200/kwh for battery storage by 2020.16 The Department is working with industry, academia and our own labs toward an even more aggressive goal of $125/kwh by 2022. At that point, ownership costs for a 280-mile EV will be equal to a standard vehicle.17 All around the world, automakers are competing feverishly to design and deploy the electric car of the future. Today America is leading that race and every year, more and more Americans are fueling their cars on cheap, clean, secure, American energy.

15 The Tesla Model S is our top-scoring car, Consumer Reports, May, 2013 16 Hensley, Russell; Newmanm, John; Rogers, Matt. Battery Technology Charges Ahead; McKinsey Quarterly, July 2012. 17 For more information see the Department of Energy’s EV Everywhere Blueprint, http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/electric_vehicles/10_year_goal.html


27

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/electric_vehicles/10_year_goal.html

Conclusion As these and other clean energy industries continue to expand, so will the challenges and opportunities associated with transforming America’ energy sector. Already utilities are beginning to wonder how they will support their current business models in the face of increased energy efficiency and cheap rooftop solar power. As EVs move beyond the market for “first adopters” and become a mainstream, America will have to invest in building a smarter, more robust electrical grid and an extensive network of EV charging stations.

Those challenges are emblematic of successes in these clean energy markets. Indeed, electric vehicles, solar PV, wind power and LED lighting are all on track to transform our economy for the better. They will clean up the air in our cities, reduce America’s vulnerability to unstable international oil markets and help build an economy that is more competitive and more efficient.

The Energy Department’s goal is to encourage these trends by providing performance targets, support for R&D, consumer education and targeted deployment assistance. With continued progress in critical renewable and energy efficient technologies like these, we can look forward to a future of clean, green, American-made energy. Already for some of these innovative technologies, that future is here today.


28

Ap

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32

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34

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35

I agree because …

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37

creating conditions for success workshop documents (pdf)

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